The Times they are a-changin’

The Times (of London) yesterday reported on what looked to me like a political horror story for Barack Obama, involving an Iraqi-born billionaire said by a Pentagon report to have “served as Saddam Hussein’s principle international financial manipulator and bag man”, a multi-million dollar loan conducted through a Central American finance company, and an admission from Obama of “boneheaded mistakes”. Yet it appears to be receiving little coverage in the US, the links in the chain being admittedly rather weak (though since when has that ever stopped anyone in presidential politics?). So Hillary Clinton will evidently have to hope for some other miracle to come along in the four days before the next primaries. The latest polls show Obama streaking ahead in Texas, and closing in fast in Ohio.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

436 comments on “The Times they are a-changin’”

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  1. would you consider the massive turnouts for the Dem candidacy as the beginnings of a social movement?….or maybe just disgust with Bush?

    Disgust with Bush will be a factor in the big race, but I don’t believe its not a factor in the Democratic primaries. I would agree that this is much more about the energy created around two candidates that each represents substantive change from the past – Hillary Clinton because she’s a woman and she Bill’s better-half (for better or worse), and Barack Obama because he is politically clean, inspirational and very intelligent. Earlier posts on brand management really go to the substance – its the declining power of Microsoft fighting against brand Nike and that itself is a fight in which spectator tickets are high value.

  4. Can’t really picture it happening at present in the “Greatest Economy in the Southern Hemisphere”, Kirri.
    Different story though if The Dragon stops masticating our minerals, chomping our coal and ceases breathing hot econo-fire later in 2008. All the experts say a major downturn can’t happen here, but I feel a “serious correction” in me waters later this year. Then a shitload of margin calls, a credit squeeze here, and a savage Sep recession will put the frighteners about bigtime. Top end houses in Oz should have some immunity but I wouldn’t touch stocks and shares or investment units right now with a barge pole. Have you noticed what’s been going on with Au and Ag prices over the last few months?
    This is certainly not a good time to owe anybody or any instsitution any money.

    Disclaimer: this is a completely unqualified personal opinion.

  5. I read an animal metaphor recently on the Huffington Post for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. She’s the fox who knows lots of small things while he’s the hedgehog who knows just one big thing. The micro politician being upstaged by the macro one.

    My preferred metaphor is automotive.

    Hillary as the second-hand station wagon. Reliable. Lots of miles on the clock and lots of baggage. And a passenger who used to do all the driving.

    Barack is a brand new Four Wheel Drive/SUV. Low miles, in fact hardly run-in. Plenty of room for all those who want to get on board. Video display, GPS, good vision all round. Yet to go off road.

    Both would go the distance. For more reflections on the Primaries follow the link.

  6. Yeah, Kevin, to me Obi is a new season’s hybrid People Mover while Hillary is a clapped out Caddie with loose decals.
    Having fun in Austin, son?

  9. I know it’s the wrong thread but…..

    ….7%!

    That’s SEVEN. Not followed by as much as a Teen. Not preceded by…anything at all.

    7….all on it’s ownsome….like Nelson himself.

    One more time cos it’s historic….7%

    AHHHH HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

    *Hubris Mode OFF*

  12. Sure is KR.

    I’m still wiping the tears of laughter from my eyes.

    I could almost feel sorry for them. Then I realise that they have earned every little (and I mean VERY little) bit of it.

  13. And just to rub the salt in nelson’s approval rating has dropped from 40% 2 weeks ago to 29% this time.

    Is that gurgling I hear from the S bend??

    Forgive me….let’s get back to Barack vs Hillary before my sides split.

  14. Whoops, I came in here to post an article to find the place busy splitting its sides of laughter. Awkward really. But since I’m here, and it’s bed time, I’ll post it anyway.

    This article is probably the best one I’ve read in terms of summarising what I’ve been saying personally over the last few weeks. March 4 is in many ways not the last chance of Clinton, but Obama’s last chance to seal the deal.

    Article

    You hear it everywhere: Tuesday is Hillary Clinton’s last stand. If she can’t win Ohio and Texas, she’s history.

    True, mostly. But it’s not the whole story. The rest goes like this: This is Barack Obama’s third chance to knock her out. If he can’t close the deal this time, maybe he can’t close the deal, period.

    Either the third time is the charm for him, or it could be strike three against him. Any result tomorrow that doesn’t finish her off lets her argue that Democratic voters’ love affair with Obama was just one of those flings. She’ll say buyer’s remorse has set in, and it’s time to get serious about winning the White House.

    She’ll also bring up her wins in the disputed Michigan and Florida primaries and repeat her vow to fight for those delegates.

    Worth reading (although the New Hampshire comment is absolutely ridiculous – like Hillary would have pulled out after two contests. Sheesh.)

  15. #314
    Max

    March 4 is in many ways not the last chance of Clinton, but Obama’s last chance to seal the deal.

    With due respect – this article is complete and utter rubbish. Obama could take a holiday from here to the end of the primaries and still be ahead. But the reality is that (a) Tuesday will deliver another blow to the Clinton campaign, (b) the up and coming delegate rich contests in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. In Pennsylvania Obama has a chance of winning the state and North Carolina is a clear Obama victory – and the Obama organizational framework is already building in both states. Media 101 – if either party can afford to maintain the cash flow necessary to continue the race then the media will continue to spin appropriate success strategies. Politics 101 – don’t bite the hand that feeds you – and what that translates to is a Clinton withdrawal from the race as opposed to a facing series of humiliating defeats backed by rising media and public opinion that will grow more and more negative, and last but not at all least – a party machine that is not inclined to forgive and forget.

  21. Max @ 314,
    I think Obama will deliver the knockout blow tomorrow and therefore the question is academic.
    However, I have always thought that the upcoming six-week gap between contests could be used to Clinton’s advantage, if she could stay in the race long enough (which I don’t think she can).

  22. Yes Gerard, we do admire your courage for defending the indefensible. Really Gerard, you should go out more often.

    “You don’t have to be a monarchist to admire the courage of Prince Harry in demanding to serve with British forces on the front line in Afghanistan – until his cover was blown by sections of the international media, including New Idea in Australia”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/gerard-henderson/harry-puts-the-prince-in-principle/2008/03/03/1204402361005.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

    Harry ‘used as propaganda by MoD’ – The father of a soldier who died in Afghanistan has accused the Ministry of Defence of using Prince Harry as “propaganda” to promote the war. Anthony Philippson, whose son James died in a firefight with Taliban troops in 2006, criticised the publicity surrounding Prince Harry’s deployment and said he was “very cynical” about the MoD’s objectives.

    http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5i-f0Z7raQIcvTkY8L4X9HSPXcSKw

    Clifford claims tour was ‘publicity stunt’ – By Nicholas Christian
    PRINCE Harry’s tour of duty in Afghanistan was a “PR stunt” that has not fooled the British public, publicist Max Clifford has claimed. The Royal’s 10-week deployment at the front was “virtual reality” because Army chiefs would have kept him away from any actual danger of being hurt, the PR guru added. He said the plan could backfire as the public would soon turn their thoughts to the thousands of ordinary British troops serving in Afghanistan who had not received special treatment.

    http://news.scotsman.com/uk/Clifford-claims-tour-was-39publicity.3834303.jp

  23. And then, she finds the right answer:

    On Monday, she denied that she believed Mr. Obama was Muslim. “No, not at all,” she said. “Obviously I’ve been the subject of scurrilous rumors for years. You know it’s hard to get them to go away, and they just keep coming back. I really sympathize with Senator Obama.”

    She added, “I hope people get beyond it and ignore it.”

    …but of course, is compelled to put her own victimhood right up front. (And let’s be clear, much of her ‘victimhood’ has stemmed from defending the appalling behaviour of Bill over the years.)

  24. Last batch of surveys put Clinton solidly in front of Obama in Ohio. 3 surveys put her between 6 & 12 points ahead – apparently the “3am phone call” ad has made a difference.
    Similarly, a couple of polls put her ahead 5 or 6 points in Texas (although a couple of other polls put Obama up by a point).
    This one’s not quite over yet – it’s still hard to see her gaining enough delegates to turn the race around, but probably enough to keep this thing going until Pennsylvania.

  27. 325
    asanque

    I think he made his point:

    So it is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago – they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.

    …it’s put up or shut up time for Hillary. And all this ‘comeback’ stuff is crappola if you look at any poll graphs over the last month. She’s been slipping steadily, so, without a huge win in Texas and Ohio, she really is finished.

    But will she concede the math?

    Pass the popcorn…

  28. Will the Party machine allow the race to continue till Penn? As I’ve said earlier, it’s the hope of the SDs getting her over the top that is keeping Hillary going. So only the SDs can pull the rug out from under Hillary and put an end to this. Will they do so after the dust settles on TX and OH??

    Dunno….but if they don’t, the prolonged contest will cripple their eventual nominee. Let’s not kid ourselves. McCain will be no easy-beat. The longer the Dems allow the Obama-Hillary show to continue, the stronger McCain gets.

    After tomorrow, it will be over the the Supers to make a decision.

  31. I’m fairly sure Bill Richardson will endorse Obama after March 4. He has practically said as much by throwing his support behind the candidate with the most pledged delegates after March 4.

  32. We’ll need a lot more than Bill R to come out in favour of BHO if Hillary is to be put to bed.

    Perhaps, KR, Hillary is the Easybeat…..I wonder if on Tuesday she’ll have Friday on her mind?

  33. Quick question: Do the polls take into account independents or just democratic voters?
    Because I believe independents can vote in both states, and those are breaking in favour of Obama.

    Food for thought.

  34. 333
    There was an unattributed comment on Politco that the last democrat polls out (the ones that favoured Hillary) in Ohio were of only democrat voters and ignored the independents. As we’ve seen the independents have favored Obama 2 to 1 in the past then it still puts him in with a good show to win if that is true.

  36. 335 zoby was the only poll (released o/night) that said this. 3 others pointed to a Clinton win in Ohio with “reasonably” largish margins. Texas seems to be line ball.

  37. My predictions:

    I think Obama will win most pledged delegates in Texas. The primary vote will be close either way, and i’ll say 51/49 to Obama.

    Clinton to win Ohio and Rhode Island narrowly. Ohio 52/48 Clinton, Rhode Island 54/46 Clinton.

    Obama to win Vermont. Obama 60/40.

  38. 337 asanque sounds pretty plausible, but I think some will argue that it’s not a knockout blow.
    With Mississippi and Wyoming over the next week, Obama will make up any delegates (and some) he loses tomorrow in any case.

  39. Zogby data has not performed particularly well over the primary season, although most pollsters seem to be indicating very little difference in popularity in OH and TX. It may come down to getting out the vote, something that has been one of Senator Obama’s strengths with his campaign organisation.

  40. asanque- I plugged the worst case scenario for Obama into Slate’s delegate counter.
    Billary/Obama
    TX 52/48
    OH 55/45
    RI 60/40
    VT 45/55

    Even with those figures, Billary only catches up 26 delegates. She needs to make up at least 50 to have a shot.
    The other way to look at it is that she needs to win EVERY state left by 58/42 to catch up. ANY state win less than 58/42 is, in effect, a loss. As I’ve said repeatedly, it’s simple arithmetic. She can’t win, assuming the Slate counter is even remotely accurate.
    http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

  41. “Peeling off from the herd shows Obama’s patriotism

    Whoa — somebody refusing to do what everybody else is doing! What does Obama think this is — America? ”

    http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/opinion/bookman/stories/2008/03/03/bookmaned_0303.html

    And from Glenn Greenwald in Salon, March 3

    [In his Times column, Bill Kristol (PNAC Super-Shill and Warmonger Uber Alles) picked up on Obama’s comment in October that he views wearing a flag pin as a substitute for true patriotism. “Obama’s unnecessary and imprudent statement impugns the sincerity or intelligence of those vulgar sorts who still choose to wear a flag pin,” Kristol declared.
    Erick Erickson, editor of the blog RedState, wrote that voters should be wary of “the liberal anti-gun former cokehead whose feminist wife hates America” . . . .
    There was also little pickup when the Politico reported that a decade ago Obama visited Bernardine Dohrn and William Ayers, the 1960s radicals whose Weather Underground group was involved in two dozen bombings. . . . Similarly, there was scant media mention of Louis Farrakhan’s support for Obama until Tim Russert challenged the senator to repudiate that support at last week’s MSNBC debate.]

    And here’s Ted Rall’s reply to the swiftboating smear-merchants:
    Sat. March 1: http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tedrall;_ylt=AkenwxxR.ixjItffp7QrQUnX.sgF
    …………………….
    Yes, Baz at 318, a deft sketch saves 10,000 words.

    Kirri at 332. Never underestimate a candidate’s resolve to sacrifice herself on behalf of her Party Machine’s juggernaut.
    And your en passant night ships was a corker.

  42. I see Howard Dean is open to the prospect of redoing Florida. Commenting on Florida Governor Crist’s offer to hold a new primary, Howard said:

    “It wasn’t their fault that this got done. It was their political leadership, and if they would like to fix that problem so that we could seat Florida without any problems, of course, we’d like to seat Florida.”

  43. It’s drivel like this that makes people hate Billary. She’s now telling everyone to vote for McCain or herself rather than Obama. Someone really needs to take her out into the middle of a deserted paddock with a gun and do the world a favour (not literally, figuratively). She’ll tear the Democrat party apart for Macca before she is put out of her misery.

    “I think that I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. I know Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience to the White House. And Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2002,” Clinton says.

  44. junior senator,

    ..With due respect – this article is complete and utter rubbish. Obama could take a holiday from here to the end of the primaries and still be ahead….

    LOL well I think you may be placing a bit too much faith in the man there, but I catch your point.

    I think there are a couple of points which have been overlooked over the past few weeks. First is Clinton’s desire for the White House – various reports suggest she has been after it for at least a decade, if not longer. Also, I think very few people seriously think she would be a chance in four years time, for a large number of factors. So this is effectively her last chance. Which thus raises the question: does she care more about winning the presidency or having the Democratic Party bigheads like her? If she wins the nom, they’ll fall in line anyway.

    I personally think you are overestimating Obama’s ability to win Pennsylvania. Six weeks is a long time in politics, and if Clinton stays in, and the media decides it’s quite fond of this debacle, then they will turn the torch on Obama. This combined with the fact the demographics favour Clinton. Those six weeks won’t be cheery stories of momentum if he can’t deliver the punch on March 4.

    Also, it’s worth noting that while she is clearly getting her arse kicked in fund raising terms… she is still raising $30m a month, which would have been a record if not for Obama. And he has had a massive advantage in financial terms for a while now – not to mention the ground campaign – and still hasn’t secured Texas and Ohio. So there are a few factors in play.

    Either way, I agree the punch will be delivered tomorrow. But the argument is, if it ISN’T, then Clinton still has plenty to run with.

  46. Of course, Dio, it’s possible that Ms Clinton holds the view that if the Party won’t hand her the nomination on a bejewelled platter it does not deserve her loyalty. Prolonging the battle till the Party is irretrievably damaged may give her some sense of vengeance on the ungrateful ingrates.

    As I say – it’s about character, and in the next day or two she will reveal whether she has any.

  47. Clinton has staked everything on her run for candidacy this year.
    She will not quit and if that means destroying the democrats, so be it.

    Barring massive losses in Texas and Ohio, she will at least run until Pennsylvania.

    Never underestimate a Clinton’s love for power.

  48. 342 The prospect of a re-poll in Florida will only encourage Hillary to hang in there if she only has a small win in Ohio and Texas is either a line ball or slight loss.

  49. Which is why Asanque, it’s up to the SDs to put the party out of its misery by removing all hope from Hillary’s run. In my view, they need to do this in the next couple of days.

  50. 348 – Claude
    Hillary does not want a re-poll in Florida and will not agree to one.
    She wants to keep the delegates from the last poll (and Michigan).
    She knows if Florida is repolled, she cannot possibly do better then the last poll.

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