Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

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  1. 649
    Greensborough Growler

    That’s right GG, blacks are people too, isn’t it a pity those silly white folks gave them a vote as well?

    And JS, never let be said that Ronron lets the facts get in the way, they only distract attention from his eloquent Deweyan discourse.

  2. GG – [I reckon it might scare a lot of people]
    I’m not scared GG. Adjust your pacemaker if you are.

    Branch stacking? What, when the ‘branch’ is the whole state? Anyone who wants to register can, and this time they are, but didn’t in 2004. So we are equating ‘popularity’ with ‘branch stacking’. I love it. Geez, you’re even more transparent than usual in your attempted mischief today GG. 😆

  3. 648 JV

    What I want to know is how the Associated Press knows that black registrations have increased fourfold? I’m assuming that the US isn’t quite so backward as to include race on the registration form.

    Or do they include a “do you identify with one of the following groups” section on the registration, perhaps?

    Or is this just some journo’s guesstimate based on what someone told him down the pub??

  4. Pancho, as always, I am in awe of your wisenosity.

    The bulk registration of a particular ethnic group for the purpose of garnering their votes for a specific candidate is akin to branch stacking.

    The point is that this may encourage white middle class voters in swing States to look elsewhere. KR, being politically correct is no substitute for understanding that race is a key issue in this election. People will react poorly if they perceive that one group in the community is trying to steal the election.

  5. GG – And I humbled by the compliment. 🙂 Again, worth a chuckle, but again wrong. I wouldn’t assume a ‘bulk registration of a particular ethnic group’, but rather a drive in the Democratic registration process in a state where black voters make up about 50% of the Democratic vote. This is simply a demographic reality in NC, as well as in many Southern states. It is also the case that Obama has been winning 85-90% of the black vote across the board.

    FG – I would assume that sampling of those registering would give those numbers. And pollsters in the US don’t seem shy about posing ‘racial’ questions.

  6. Ferny @ 654 [how the Associated Press knows that black registrations have increased fourfold?]
    The info came from the state board of elections and it’s a question on the registration form – Question 6 -Race/ethnicity.

    Registration Form here:
    http://msweb03.co.wake.nc.us/bordelec/downloads/form06.pdf

    Mind you, it isn’t just blacks:

    “There has also been a boom in voter registrations overall across age, race, gender and party affiliation, according to the North Carolina state board of elections.”

  7. “white middle class voters” aren’t the ones who see Obama as a ‘black’ candidate GG.

    You’re towing Bill’s line GG, do you think he needs a hand?

    Isn’t is about time more Americans voted? Does it matter what colour they are? Really?

    And quite franky, after the godawful mess the stoopid white men have made of it, maybe it’s time for some of the other groups to get involved. Wouldn’t you say?

  8. Afternoon all-
    so I can see that all is going along nicely. r/Ron will support Hillary no matter what, and will bamboozle us with unfathomable arguments to do so. r/Ron- it’s Ok: I have the same thing about George Clooney.

  9. yes Al #624 , you are correct to say
    “Government run universal-healthcare is against the GOPs core policies,”

    which is the direction of Hillary’s policy , and I accept the difficuly of getting Repugs crossing the floor for this reason you stated.

    and PANCHO’s #605 previous valid point on Senate numbers I’ve previously
    accepted.
    However the 2 of 3 labor principles in Hillary’s plan unlike Obama’s is worth fighting for by Democrats and its not absolutely impossible to succeed

    Domestically (Iraq is not a domestic issue) the substance of what I said was its REALLY critical to voters , (whether its the no. 2 domestic issue now after the economy or whether it always has been the number 1 or 2 domestic issue)
    I had seen a poll before Feb reversing the 1 and 2 positions but its irrelevant.

    Either number 1 or 2 means it IS fertile ground to work on the Repugs with.

    Thanks for a different perspective re the GOP platform

  11. Interesting that on the NC registration form, Barack would not have been identified in an ethnic group, but as ‘two or more’. The form and instructions are quite interesting, and they differ from state to stae. Some states habve the race question as voluntary, but not NC.

  12. Growler@665
    are you suggesting that the increase in black voters is somehow not legitimate ?
    ie: do you think that they shouldn’t vote, or only in numbers that OK with the whites??
    I’m going to assume that it’s not what you meant, but it doesn’t sound good.

  14. #601
    Another interpretation is that Ron may have posted n posts too many – but that’s ok – because here at pollbludger – tolerance is a beautiful and bountiful attribute.

  16. KR,

    I am a fervent believer in all eligible people participating in the democratic process. However, to belabour my point, having the Democrats dancing around as if they have scored a great coup may not play out particularly well in the broader voting community.

  18. #667 GG
    Re. how this plays out – yes – I agree – there will be a consequence – but I think this consequence will be restricted to states with AA ethnic tensions. There was a god article on this on the Huff a few weeks ago that did some solid digging into the argument and reasonably demonstrated a correlation between demographics and voting trends. I don;t have the reference immediately available but if I come come across it again I’ll be sure to post it up here again.

  19. Thanks JV – I guess that answers my two questions about how they got hold of the numbers – and whether they’re backward enough to ask the race question.

  22. Ferny – we are asked the race question here all the time (are you Aboriginal or a Torres Strait Islander?)
    What about when the taxi company I rang asked me if i was Miss or Mrs?- like my marital status has anything to do with me wanting a taxi. Sheesh.

  24. 673
    Hi Jen – we’re not asked for it on our enrolment form but you’re right, some forms do ask the question – “Do you identify with one of the following groups…”. The difference is that answering the race question here is voluntary. Not so in NC.

  26. 661
    William Bowe

    As Mozart said: “Too many notes? Which ones would you like me to take out?”

    668
    William Bowe Says:
    April 10th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
    Jen, on this particular page, KR leads Ron 12-5.

    …have you measured the word count too?

    Can I get extra points for neatness? LOL

    It’s the “Deweyan discourse”, William, it must be flowing today!

  28. Hey Ron, an interesting piece on the pros and cons of mandated healthcare here worth a look: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/9/221614/4674/224/493015.

    The writer argues that the main problem in the system is lack of affordability rather than lack of coverage – he says that premiums have risen 78% since 2001 for instance – and concludes that mandating insurance purchases therefore do not attack the main problem facing the system.

    He also points to the failure in Mass., where only 7% of the uninsured population have bought insurance since the law came in requiring them to do so.

  32. Pancho @ 679 – [the main problem in the system is lack of affordability rather than lack of coverage]
    Exactly. I tried to make that point on what feels like even more than KR’s impressive 12 occasions, but I may as well have responded to a bowl of custard.
    The Dems policy is no Medicare, neither Hillary’s nor Barack’s very minor variations on the theme.

  33. What took ’em so long?

    Nothing like an election to get their attention, I suppose:

    But now one component of the fractious Republican Party foreign policy establishment — the so-called pragmatists, some of whom have come to view the Iraq war or its execution as a mistake — is expressing concern that Mr. McCain might be coming under increased influence from a competing camp, the neoconservatives, whose thinking dominated President Bush’s first term and played a pivotal role in building the case for war.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/us/politics/10mccain.html?hp

    …I wonder what about “bomb,bomb,bomb…bomb,bomb Iran” they didn’t understand the first time?

    Here’s the fracture line: the US public are sick to death of it, (the Iraqis are really lucky, they get both the sickness and the death), and the Republican nominee is bolted on to endless occupation.

    Bad luck, eh?

  34. I see from the great seal of North Carolina that the state motto is “esse quam videri” meaning “To be, rather than to seem”. That’s a rather liberal sounding motto isn’t it? It’s been the motto since 1893 too. Hillary could benefit by taking a moment to reflect on that concept. No wonder they’re all over Obama in NC.

  37. Jen,

    12/5 with another 83 super bloggers to contribute. They might be leading the count, but do they have enough to win the prize? It is just more Obama/KR dreaming.

    And, don’t forget there is always the omnipotent one William who can end your dreams with the click of his mouse. You better hope he is a benign despot.

  38. Good to see Hillary setting the agenda. I think it shows she knows how to make the correct call in a tight situation.

    Clearly, Obama is a follower, not a leader.

  39. GG -Yeah Hillary’s the leader on belated empty gestures alright. It’s just so … tough. The Meiner Badhof gang had nothing on her.

  40. I see the call for boycott by Clinton as an attempt by Hilary to hit some of Obama’s votes – uni students (as well as an admirable stance). However, i thought PA was going to a Hilary win on the back of her base? Does it indicate that she is thinking ahead to other states or that she is frightened by the PA vote? Or am i being to cynical and she is really just calling for it because she believes it?

  41. Whatever else she may be doing, Clinton is surely playing to the Democratic base domestically with this.

    And again while stating that I know little about Sino-US relations and diplomacy, I wonder what the implications of a boycott of the ceremony are. Obviously there are concerns with China’s behaviour on many fronts, but is the problem not with the awarding of China the olympics in the first place? Will a boycott complicate attempts to engage and work with China not only on Tibet, but Darfur, Sudan, Iran and other issues as well? How does a boycott compare with the Rudd approach of airing dissent from within? What are the pros and cons of such open actions (diplomacy vs a public slap)? Maybe the threats are brinkmanship, and leverage can be gained through them, but structurally a boycott seems on the one hands seems risky when the event of the Olympics and Rudd’s proximity to China have seemed to raise these issues popularly in a way that they have not been raised in years. Like I say, I know nothing here and am happy for all this to be labelled naive and shot down, but I have just been waiting for someone to present the diplomacy argument here which hasn’t arisen.

  42. Why is this man talking about something which is a non issue for him? I seem to remember someone on this blog reminded me of “Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.”

    It appears that Obama has a habit of talking about issues which are non-issue. What was the speech that he made at Philadelphia about again? Oh yes, it was about his naughty grandmother, a typical white woman.

    Obama seeks to stress his patriotism

    After a series of incidents that prompted questions about his patriotism, the Democratic presidential candidate is peppering speeches with explicit statements on his love of country.

    “I love this country not because it’s perfect but because we’ve always been able to move it closer to perfection,” he told an audience in North Dakota.

    And in Montana: “It’s a country where … I’ve seen ordinary Americans find justice, where I’ve seen progress made for working families who need leaders who are willing to stand up and fight for them. That is the country I love.”

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-04-07-obama-patriotism_N.htm

  45. Finns, this is from Obama’s keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention (doesn’t that seem a lifetime away now?):

    “Tonight, we gather to affirm the greatness of our Nation — not because of the height of our skyscrapers, or the power of our military, or the size of our economy. Our pride is based on a very simple premise, summed up in a declaration made over two hundred years ago:

    We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

    That is the true genius of America, a faith — a faith in simple dreams, an insistence on small miracles; that we can tuck in our children at night and know that they are fed and clothed and safe from harm; that we can say what we think, write what we think, without hearing a sudden knock on the door; that we can have an idea and start our own business without paying a bribe; that we can participate in the political process without fear of retribution, and that our votes will be counted — at least most of the time.”

    For every national speech you can find where a US politician does not mention the exceptional nature of ‘America’ and their love for it, I’ll find you several where they do. And this includes Obama pre and post Wright.

  46. 12-5, eh.
    The smart money says this Ron is not for narrowing.
    ———-
    “Obama’s has a postal moment”

    Ah, the sweet stamp of success.

  48. # 679 Pancho

    Thank you for your interest & for the link. I’ve read the article carefully in full.

    (Count this blog as 5 if you other guys want or whatever number you may wish)

    The observations I have are for only those interested in the healthcare issue:

    1/ The writer (‘eugene’) strongly opposes Elizabeth Edward’s support of universal (mandated) healthcare.
    Her husband Senator John Edwards also supports the universality (mandating)

    Hillary’s plan & Edwards views are in the same general ballpark.
    Obama opposes this principle. Obama IS against a fundamental Labor principle

    2/ The writer ‘eugene’ generally ONLY provides arguments against universal healthcare and none for. Bill Hayden would just be frothing to get at ‘eugene’
    Not sure who he represents.

    3/ “Eugene the writer having dismiised this Labor principle as irrelevant , he then argues the problem is the ‘lack of affordability’ , but does not list how to make it affordable !
    He simply says “the problem is the lack of affordability – we need guaranteed access to affordable healthcare to everyone”. Its an empty statement , no why or how nor any supporting reasons at all

    4/ Every Labor leader from Whitlam to Rudd supports the Hillary & Edwards line on ‘universal’ & would demolish this persons arguments. Some of the problem points he says with universal healthcare are true but he mentions a one year Matt Romney experiment rather than ‘oz’ 25 years of experience.
    The points he says against ‘universal are far outweighed by the benefits

    5/ The Howard Liberal Party would favour this ‘lack of affordability’ argument
    and to dismantle the ‘universal’ Medicare principle. Yep , open health up for free enterprise competition’ for more private companies to make even more profits at the expense of unhealthy human beings (often poor & disadvantaged as well).

    6/ 2 big problems with the US system are the Private Insurers & Drug Companies too heavily ‘control’ rather than the Doctor treating a human on the basis of health alone. Instead the doctor may have to first check the patient’s insurance to see if he is covered and if so for what level & in what discipline.The 45 million uninsured …they have a problem…health and economic.

    Worse still 45 million are totally uninsured meaning when they or their kids get sick , they can not as in ‘oz’ just ring a Doctor or hospital knowing a doctor will help. Millions more are under insured meaning they also face similar dilemma’s.

    For j/v #591 to quote a guy as the basis of his rebutall to me who is the ex CEO of the 8th biggest home , auto & Life Insurance company in the US , WHEN the
    health Insurance company’s are part of the problem Why ask the devil for advice

    7/ Affordability – political responsibility
    This is like the questions ‘what should the US stratregically do before it leaves Iraq and what will happen after the US leaves’. too many variables to adequately cover. however here are some:

    We will make health insurance affordable. Thats Whitlam
    We will make health Insurance afforda1ble. thats Hillary.

    When the government (if it also has universal health care as policy) becomes generally responsible for the affordability of healthcare as Hillary is proposing , it is becoming responsible for A ‘goods & service’ unlike other private enterprise ‘goods & services’ inwhich the government is NOT responsible at all.

    In the US , the Government is essentially not politically responsible for the affordability of healthcare simply because its not ‘universal’ with everyone covered (and millions that are ,are under insured)

    In Australia , the Government does have since a general responsibilty , since Hayden , for the affordability of healthcare.The public know it. This was the 2nd Labor principle which Medibank permanently imbeded.
    (This is separate from the 3rd labor principle of the governemnt being direct government payer of a % rebate 7 schedule fees supervision etc.)

    This general political responsibility for the affordabilty of healthcare has prevented total privatisation on one hand and responsibility for affordability on the other. Howard & Fraser damaged it to some extent but everytime they tried too far , voter fear of a lack of government infuence on affordability & voter backlash constrained.
    Howard would have wanted a workchoices form of healthcare …fully privatised

    If healthcare costs skyrocked here to the US levels of the NET the consumer actually has to pay , an Aussie government may be thrown out as they are perceived to have a general responsibilty for affordability.
    In the US there already is & has been total lack of affordability , but NO US Government has ever been thrown out because of it including George Bush

    It is where Hillary if elected on her 2 policy principles would be fatally punished for in later election if gross lack of affordability persisted. It would be her ‘universal’ plan for all americans and her committemnt ‘to make it affordable , both politically & socially interdependent.
    Whereas Obama’s policy means if the crisis remains unchanged , he can say
    ‘not my fault’….blame all those Indurance companys fees & resrictions and for not insuring the poor & disadvantaged. No 2 principles , no political responsiblity.

    8/ Affordability – rebates
    This is the 3rd (but not the last) of the Labor principles for healthcare
    This initially was to directly contain the overall net costs to consumers through the 85% rebate , schedule fees etc. Sadly this % rebate has undermined down by the healthcare industry often charging well over the various schedule fees. This principle therefore has a diminished direct effect on affordability , but still very worthy.

    Whilst obama’s plan does do incorporate the first 2 principles , I did freely ackowledge Hillary’s did not include the 3rd principle. A pity.
    I said the reason why US Pollies are fearful of it was the US culture built so strongly on ‘free enterprise’. The 3rd principle would be regarded as a form of socialism & would be opposed by even some Democrats to prevent them losing their seats
    Therefore the Hillary plan was built acknowledging this impediment , but an ‘out’ may be some limited form of it in future financing & rebate Congress negotiations

    9/ Affordability – future US subsidies/rebates/Insurance premiums re healthcare:
    If the first 2 principles mentioned were implemented , one can only hope during the Congress debates it gets in relation to subsidies /rebates closer to the ‘oz’ 3rd principle model, the closer the better.
    This may involve better:subsidies , rebates by tax level, supervision of insurance companies , attention to fees or how they increase etc., or some form of regulation covering some or all of these. Thats for the future to decide.

    10/ Funding
    Obama approx 65 billion promised. Hillary 110 billion promised.. stand to be corrected but if correct , Obama you need to adopt Hillary’s policy and match her money

    11/ US Federal Debt
    The amounts needed I think are far far greater than either’s in point 10/ anyway.

    Given the US debt to China & others, & its trade deficit , “fixing” healthcare does pose serious economic challenges which are beyond the scope of a single blog. That said , I’ve said previously the US defence budget is I think 5 times the 2nd biggest Country’s spending on defence , so there is alot of money that could be redirected for equity rather than for weapons.

    11/ throwing tax payers money at the problem , without the first 2 principles
    just guarantees the US private health Insurance companys & all those others profiting out of US healthcare, will increase their fees progressively to negate the subsidies & rebates leaving the status quo….total lack of affordability.

    Indeed on this , and other areas , we are the lucky Country

    If I’ve made an odd error on a point in a long blog , it should not detract from the substance of the policy issues proposed.
    If you have read the whole blog , I thank you

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