Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

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  1. Oh dear, now it’s health – there really is no remission – r/Ron I hate to say it, but, gee, what about that pastor guy, eh?

  3. A bit of morgue analysis for those of a forensic bent about someone who was going to be ready on day one:

    “What Went Wrong with the Clinton Campaign”

    “This is an organizational failure of monumental proportions. There is no other way to put it. The question is why did it happen?
    … [lots in-between]
    “What we are talking about here is plain old arrogance. I think this is the central mistake of the Clinton campaign. It presumed that the nomination was Clinton’s. Not Clinton’s to lose. Just Clinton’s. Period. As a consequence, it behaved in an unduly confident manner. Mark Penn is to be blamed, for sure. So is Patti Solis Doyle. But so also is the entire upper-echelon of the campaign. Above all, it’s Hillary’s fault. She’s the candidate. She sets the tone. “”

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/04/what_went_wrong_with_the_clint.html

  6. Sorry Ron, I’ll be honest: TL;DR.

    But I think one important thing that JV is trying to say is that mandating health insurance is not a Labor principle. Forcing people to purchase healthcare and if they don’t, penalising them, which is what both Edwards and Clinton’s policies do, would be unacceptable in Australian politics. That isn’t to say that Edward’s and Clinton’s policies are better than Obama’s. Trying to pick the best healthcare policies in the United States is not possible, it’s just a case of trying to find the least worst.

  7. Did I hear George telling the Chinese to go talk with the Dalai Lama?

    I wonder who put him up to that?

    Gosh, our Kev’s a right little mover and shaker, eh?

  8. There are always two sides to a coin. I agree with Michael Backman here, the Chinese are often their own worst enemy. They might be the best manufacturer in the World but when it comes to PR and spin, they still have a lot to learn.

    Western media miss the real Tibet story by Michael Backman

    What annoyed my correspondent was a column I wrote last year for The Age in which I highlighted some aspects of the Dalai Lama that most media reports ignore: the fact that in running his government in exile, he has been extraordinarily nepotistic by appointing many relatives to senior positions, and that during the 1950s, ’60s and into the ’70s he was personally on the CIA’s payroll, for example………….. The vested interests that surround the Tibet issue are many and make it a great deal more complicated than simple slogans such as “Free Tibet” suggest. If China is ever going to neutralise this issue, it is going to have to learn to act with a level of sophistication, maturity and self-confidence that it now lacks. Apologising to Tibetans for their suffering under Chinese rule will need to be part of the package. But obviously such a degree of enlightenment is years off.

    http://business.theage.com.au/western-media-miss-the-real-tibet-story/20080408-24nz.html?page=1

  9. 709
    The Finnigans

    I agree with that wholeheartedly Finn, there’s been too much polarisation of the issue by a largely ignorant western media, but the fact remains that Chinese rule is hardly benign wherever it encounters cultural difference (or political for that matter!).

    It did not surprise me to hear Robert Manne say he was amazed by Rudd’s courage and conviction, as was I, and no doubt much of the Australian thinking population who’ve been so innured to mealy mouthed platitudes from the likes of Howard and Downer for so long we’d forgotten what a politician with real convictions actually looked like.

  11. #710 – KR – Unfortunately the West is still like to view Tibet through what i call the romantic “Shangri-La” prism. How many people really know about the historical interactions between Tibet and the Chinese Dynaties over thousand of years. Tibet has been in and out of the Chinese orbit ever since the year 680AD when the then Tang Dynasty founding Emperor married off one of his Princess to the King of Tibet. One may very well ask also how did Hawaii ever became part of the USA and how much the Hawaiians had a say.

    BTW KR: Rudd’s speech yesterday at the Beijing University will go down as one of most significant Sino related foreign affair speech ever. As now, its depth is simply too much for the MSM to digest and understand but it will be studied and dissected in details by any serious students of Sino affairs.

  13. #707 Al

    thanks for your post & agree in part but which I excluded because the principle was already misunderstood by opponents

    So my argument purely centred on ‘universiality’ which is a Labor principle.

    The argument that was being AGAINST ‘universiality’ via j’v’s source was that forget ‘universiality’ instead ‘affordabilty to pay’ was all that needed addressing …which was code for continued private enterprise running of the system without any Government involvement…meaning no improvement to mess

    Labor’s ‘universiality’ principle is financed policy is forcing tax payers to pay for that universiality’ at 1.5% tax under $50,000 income (with scheduled fees etc)
    -the financing & scheduled fees etc. is the 3rd Labor principle I listed

    The problem is the 3rd Labor principle will not be accepted by voters as it will regarded as socialism.

    So THE REALISTIC CHOICES for US Pollies (abbreviated) are:
    1/ Hillarys
    (a)with the first 2 Labor principles of ‘universiality’ and political responsibilty for general affordibility (with the electoral costs of failure to do so) , plus
    (b) mandating for all people the paying of basic Insurance Premiums , with government subsidies or rebates to offset some cost
    vs the Labor 3rd principle of 1.5% tax to finance it & 80% of sheduleds back
    which is socialist
    or
    2/ throwing money at people via subsidies , most of the poor of whom may not use it for Health Insurance in reality despite procedures and which (the subsidies) will get eaten up by the US Healthcare profiteers via increased fees…resulting in little or no improvement

    So you are right to say Labor would not force premium payments but this is the best alternative to Labor’s forced 1.5% tax levy , given US socialist concerns.
    Thanks for making the valid point.

  15. I actually meant to say “That isn’t to say that Edward’s and Clinton’s policies are worse than Obama’s”. Damn Freudian slip.

  17. #715 andrew ,

    Good article. however the writer is 3 weeks late as the identical view was published (think NY Times) 3 weeks ago and I and asanque said based on that article then believed it was the strategy cost Hillary any chance.

    I actually would call Penn’s “big State’ strategy incompetence rather than arrogance. Its one thing to think you’ve got the Nomination sown up , but its incompetence to completely ignore the mathematical reality of the decisive number of delegates that were up for grabs in those small States and leave anyone the chance to get them.

    The person at the top always bears responsibility but when you high a top gun ,(like Howard did with the incompetent we know know Textor) you usually do not tell them generally how to suck eggs in their specific expertise area.

    guess Penn won’t get such a gig again

  18. 712
    The Finnigans

    Although I obvioulsy did not know who the Chinese writers were, nor the details of the history Rudd mentioned, it still looked like a pretty nuanced speech to me, and that he was talking on several levels (most of which I knew were going over my head).

    Look, if the likes of KD Lang get all gooey about his performance, fine, but it’s far more important that the Central Committee knows what we think, and that they can’t just lock the doors and tell us everything is fine inside. Rudd’s done them a favour in one sense, he’s told them, to their faces, in their own language, that it isn’t all right to abuse your own citizens and in this global world you’ll need to do better than that.

    I’m still in awe of his chutzpah (or the Chinese equivalent! LOL).

  19. “guess Penn won’t get such a gig again”

    If only Ron. Rumour has it that Gordon Brown is on his case to take over his PR in the UK. Some slow learners about. Asides the bookends of being fired by Gore in 2000 and sort-kinda-but-not-really fired by Clinton in 2008 he is

    on a tremendous losing streak, one that’s rumored to be at least 13 straight. I haven’t been able to find anything he’s won since Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection (in which Clinton didn’t top 50%). He polled for Al Checchi when Checchi lost the three-way CA gubernatorial primary to Jane Harman and eventual winner Gray Davis in 1998. He got fired from the Gore campaign in 1999. In 2002 his clients included Dem gubernatorial primary losers Jim Blanchard in Michigan and Andrew Cuomo in New York, and his candidate Jeanne Shaheen lost the 2002 NH Senate race (she’s got a different pollster this time around). In 2004 he polled for Joementum’s presidential run and Peter Deutch’s losing FL Senate primary against Betty Castor. In 2006 he even polled for asshole Silvio Berlusconi, who in addition to being a far-right scumbag—did I mention he’s a far-right scumbag?—was the sitting prime minister of Italy’

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/6/20525/15947/864/491358

  23. Kevin07 has done it again Finns !

    Achieved a mulplicity of objects in one clever speech.
    All the different approachs in your #709 7 #712 and GG’s #713 in one hit.

    Further both domestically & internationally he is a hero for ‘standing up’ for humanitarian abuses & ‘standing up’ to China. The Students (the brightest of the bright) will be impressed by the intellectual argument he presented.

    And the Central Committee will rspect a Leader with courage but who ‘undedrstood the historical relationship & culture involved and was giving them a different way out

    Kevin07 would leave Obama and Hillary for dead in every respect

  24. Hell Pancho #720

    touche. The background you have on Penn is brilliant. I’d never checked him out but as I and asanque concluded his big State policy was incompetent.
    But your info staggers me…and begs the question , who in Hillary’s camp recommended him

    Surely Gordon Brown wouldn’t ?

    ps/ thanks for that your little blog of yours today , whilst I was addressing it and in length with some passion , you were probably having a quiet wine & with a smile

  26. Bongiorno Bludgers,

    The Imbecile’s I-raq strategy: “God’s on our side, so it’s war without end, amen.
    Theem WMDs, mah feller ‘Merkans, have been smuggled across the border to I-ran”.

    http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/51604/
    http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/51578

    http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/51616

    April 10:
    http://www.miamiherald.com/jim_morin/image_media/489350.html

    http://www.gocomics.com/stuartcarlson/2008/04/09/

    Remember how Uncle Sammy won the Vietnam War? Just like the French did before them? Well I-raq ain’t no quagmire, and US Forces gon whup goddamn Raghead ass till God’s gift of Freedom and Democracy has been delivered in full. Yes suh!!

  30. Two staggering poll results from Rasmussen in Montana and Alaska, bearing in mind that Bush won each of them by over 20 points in 2004. I don’t put that much faith in them, but maybe it’s a sign of the 50 State Strategy that Obama has been trying to push.

    http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election

    It’s no surprise that John McCain leads Hillary Clinton by twenty-five percentage points in Alaska. After all, George W. Bush won the state by twenty-five points in Election 2004 and by thirty-one points four years earlier.

    However, it is surprising to note that Barack Obama starts the general election trailing McCain by just five percentage points, 48% to 43%.

    http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Montana shows John McCain leading Barack Obama 48% to 43%. However, he enjoys a much more comfortable lead over Hillary Clinton, 54% to 36%.

    It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montana’s 3 Electoral College Votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin (Ross Perot picked up 14% of the vote).

    I doubt either of these states will turn blue in November, but polls like this could force McCain to spend a lot more time shoring up red states than attacking the purples (much like Howard was forced to do last year).

  31. Ecky

    The Grinnin’ Chimp has left the cockpit on autopilot and hit the eject button: mission accomplished. He’ll parachute into Waco and stumble off into well earned oblivion.

    Kinda leaves the rest of the nation up the Tigris without a paddle though, an endless war they cannot ‘win’ and an armed forces literally coming apart at the seams.

    I heard Colin Powell on radio this morning, and he put it pretty bluntly short of calling the POTUS an idiot, I’d say.

    What a godawful mess he’s given them, and for what? So they do another talent show to find the next Saddam?

    What a goofball,eh? Not only has he wrecked Iraq, he’s damn near buggered the USA while he was at it.

    Incredidble.

  32. Apparently a deadline for settlement of some overdue accounts by the Clinton campaign has been set with the threat of payment collectors stepping in to resolve the question. All of this for a university where Bill Clinton said during a stump speech – ‘We owe you so much’, words that have come back to haunt the campaign.

    Olbermann’s take on the situation – enjoy.
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24038421#24038421

  33. Elton talks about misogynists. You reckon there are any on this blog?

    GG – oh absolutely, it seems stacked with them. I mean, I can only speak for myself, but have I told you that I only think Obama is the better candidate because I hate women?

    On another note, it’s a little disappointing that you’re taking your political cues from Elton John now. I mean maybe 70s and 80s Elton I could understand, but this washed up version? (Oops, is that a homophobic comment? Shoulda disclosed that as well).

  36. # 700 GG

    Thanks for your post last night. Just scrolled back & saw it. missed it in evening

    Some of these guys are so full of their snouts in literature , with voting Labor the intellegentsia thing to do , an actual post on Labor fundamentals leaves them in embarrased shock/silence or running to Google & picking neo sources.

    Iraq is ‘safe’ for the ‘set’ to blog , but after 2 months where is one other pro Obama detailed policy bloged by them. Just rely on Google for ‘safe’ stories

  38. As well she might:

    “Clinton Resets Expectations in Pennsylvania”
    “Having seen double-digit leads in Pennsylvania dwindle in recent weeks, Sen. Hillary Clinton is now trying to make sure that any win by her — even by a few points — is seen as a big victory.
    Of Sen. Barack Obama, Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson tells the Chicago Tribune, “He is doing everything he can to win in Pennsylvania. And if he doesn’t win, it will be a significant defeat for him.” ”

    Now that’s brazen spin. Of course Hillary is doing nothing to win.

    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/04/10/clinton_resets_expectations_in_pennsylvania.html

    Source Tribune article here:
    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-campaign10apr10,0,7896375.story

  39. Interesting take on the electoral value of McCain’s Iraq position by Jonathon Chait in the New Republic:

    “Iraq may not be popular, but the general perception (which is not the same thing as reality) that they’re willing to fight the bad guys remains a key positive for the GOP brand.”

    I find that bemusing, although he does conclude that Obama’s position is probably the best electorally (dovish on Iraq, hawkish on Al Queda)

    http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/04/09/can-republicans-win-on-iraq.aspx

  40. Ron, the blunt facts are that healthcare is down at number three on the list of US concerns, and although nobody would disagree that it’s a total mess, the subject is really one where a degree of detailed knowledge is required ie it’s for policy wonks, preferably with some background in public health and funding issues.

    Can I suggest, if you wish to pursue this area of interest, that you try finding a US board where policy wonks go to debate these issues, as you’ve probably exhausted (in both senses) the bloggers on this board.

    Try this one for starters:

    http://www.john-goodman-blog.com/hillary%e2%80%99s-plan/

    …and if you go to google you’ll find a whole heap more.

  41. 740
    jaundiced view

    That’s a bald-faced lie, as in: the public have consistently and overwhelmingly said that they want out of Iraq, but they’re wrong, they actually want to stay and fight anybody we define as the ‘bad guy’.

    This is the typical neocon lie, it’s best expressed by Darth Cheney when asked about the public’s disapproval for staying in Iraq: “So what?”

    In other words, this is a fascist dictatorship that will go the way of the Third Reich.

  42. ‘dovish’ , flip flop like bird

    But then he does say with ‘conviction’ , if Al Queda return to Iraq , he’ll have the US back to get rid of them

    and you ivory tower mob believe this hot air

  43. KR 742 -Yes, it is hard to fathom, but I think I can see what he’s saying about a distinction between an unpopular war and perceived general ‘tough guy’ image. I just cannot imagine the voters will make this fine distinction though, when it’s clear the overwhelming majority want change generally. McCain doesn’t represent that.

  47. Ron,

    I’ve been investigating the health care policies of both candidates a bit since last night. Really good summary of their stances on all the issues here:

    http://www.ontheissues.org/2008/Barack_Obama_Health_Care.htm
    http://www.ontheissues.org/2008/Hillary_Clinton_Health_Care.htm

    I also read a good article by Robert Laszewski, President of Health Policy and Strategy Associates about the two plans, available here:

    http://www.thehealthcareblog.com/the_health_care_blog/2008/02/hillary-clinton.html

    He makes some good points regarding the current mandate system which is currently used in Massachussetts which marries up with what I suspected the flaws are.

    Mass is doing a great job getting people covered with incomes so low that they have their health insurance fully paid for. But, for those families who make too much for a subsidy that pays less than the full cost–or none of the cost–the Mass program is faltering. Only a few thousand uninsured Mass residents whose incomes are above the lowest levels have signed up for the mandated coverage.

    For example, a family of three making $50,000 gets no subsidy and the cost of a $2,000 deductible plan is in the $7,000 to $9,000 range. Mass has a law that says they must purchase coverage but how, with such high costs, can they really be expected to?

    So, there is a mandate and you can say we are covering everyone because they have to be covered but in fact the mandate is a hollow provision if people can’t afford it.

    So, when the day is done, I don’t see much real difference here.

  48. General Odom put it pretty succintly the other night on Lateline; essentially there is no natural fit with Iraq and al Qaeda, and without a US presence to give a common enemy, the Iraqis will drive them out.

    There’s an awful lot of tosh spoken about al Qaeda and Iraq, but the proof of the pudding is in the number of foreigners the US detain, and it’s virtually zip. In other words, the opposition from local Sunnis is predominantly secular, and the religious element (mostly Salafi jihadists) is not paid up al Qaeda.

    Between the nuances of Iraqi sectarianism there’s little room for Wahabbist fundamentalism, and those who know the facts realise that occupying the country creates the conditions for the problem, it does not solve it.

  50. Check out Nader’s health care policies while you’re there too Ron. He is probably the closest to what we have in Australia, but unfortunately it’s “socialism”.

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