Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

Comments Page 16 of 23
1 … 15 16 17 … 23

  1. Call me a wimp, or an Obamabot if it makes you feel good, but at the end of the day things like the following make me feel god about the senator from Illinois.

    It was a fundraiser. There was a group of Obama supporters outside with Obama for President signs. After his speech, he took questions. One woman said “a woman outside flagged me down and said that she is Irish, but recently became a US citizen specifically to vote for you. She has a son in Iraq, and she believes you will bring her boy back home to her. She asked me to ask you to wave at her when you leave.” He put his head down. He closed his eyes for a beat.
    When it was time for him to leave, the Secret Service men said “Senator, its time to get in the car.” He straightened his spine and said “No. I have a lady I need to talk to.” and then he went outside to find her. The secret service did go with him. A lot of us inside the event were close to tears. We were all “OMG he’s not getting in the car! OMG he’s going to find that Irish lady!”

  2. Al @ 751 – I edit a health information blog which puts me in regular contact with Americans. I’ve many times outlined how our Medicare system works and most initially are envious, but then start using the “s” word. Unfortunately, they’ve become so brainwashed about this that they can’t see past it.

    I remember watching an episode of Northern Exposure about the time Hillary came up with her health policy in Bill’s first term, which included a scene that was basically a long diatribe against ‘socialized medicine.’ I assume it was paid for by the U.S. health insurance industry.

  3. 753
    MayoFeral

    Ironic isn’t it? They’ve got the most expensive health care in the world, with very mediocre performance indicators, but are scared of ‘socialised’ medicine while their Central Bank is rapidly socialising their mortgage industry!

    Tell ’em they need to attack and invade some tinpot country for their own protection and they’ll buy it, tell them they need to bail out Wall Street and they’ll buy it, but tell them they could cut the cost of their healthcare and get better outcomes and they wail in horror!

    If it wasn’t so predictably silly it would be funny.

  4. But then they’d be like the Canadians, and they couldn’t stand that! I wonder how much of the anti-socialised medicine attitude comes from their desire to pay out their northern neighbours, no matter the cost.

  5. Kirribilli # 741

    your term “policy wonks”.

    Then you go to a site for ‘policy wonks’ on Wall Street economics
    (mine is no 2 domestic issue & yours one)

    But when you do , your ‘cut paste’ will not cut mustard with people who actually understand Wall Street & economics, or
    is that why you are reluctant to go

  7. Al at 731: Excellently made point. Make the warmonger fight his campaign on as many fronts as possible to spread him thin, then blitzkreig the bastard to oblivion.

    “I doubt either of these states will turn blue in November, but polls like this could force McCain to spend a lot more time shoring up red states than attacking the purples (much like Howard was forced to do last year)”
    ———-
    Kirri at 741:
    “In other words, this is a fascist dictatorship that will go the way of the Third Reich.”

    No future tense about it whatsoever, mon ami, suggest you check out a couple of Maureen Farrell’s essays. She’s truly formidable.
    http://www.buzzflash.com/farrell/

  8. Afternoon all –
    just realised that I’m a misogynist as I’m not supporting Hillary. Must admit it has come as a bit of a shock being the proud owner of a vagina and all, but nevertheless it appears to be the only explanation apparently.

  9. EC , there are a couple of other Red (& Blue as well) States that have surprising trend turnabouts for Obama as well , however there are Red & Blue States but few number , trended the reverse.

    Perhaps its alittle early to judge the Polls

  10. Jen 759

    [just realised that I’m a misogynist as I’m not supporting Hillary. Must admit it has come as a bit of a shock being the proud owner of a vagina and all,]

    lol

    You made me spit out my coffee : )

  11. Ron 760

    The other point to make is that in the big count, no one cares if you lost really red states by just a few points.

    Although Als point at 731 is very valid. Spreading McCain’s already thin money is not a bad idea!

  12. sorry about the coffee Yo ho ho. (Borax`is good for any resulting shirt stains.)
    Apart from having all the right Girl’s bits I’m a whizz at laundry tips too.

  13. Fri April 11: The Bros are about to launch their blog.
    http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Aqv67DI96e9idLeABVDUdiw0vTYC

    Thurs April 10: Yes, Virginia, looks can kill.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AqF0hGBr9fdafZojL_yeI4ZX_b4F

    Thurs April 10: War without end it is then.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AoArvlqGcXP9e9zP2qKvcYxR_b4F

    Ron at 760, “Perhaps its a little early to judge the Polls”

    As a Poll Bludger, I unashamedly reserve the right to be a poll judger.
    Comes with the territory, Ronaldo(you’re such a star). Helps me kick a goal from time to time too, but I’ll never be in your league, mate. Why, ah’m so ENvious!

  14. #759 – Jen, is it only a personal Vagina Monologue? Or can it be full participation by the bludgers of the Vagina Multilogue?

  15. Wed April 9: To get sympathy these days, a vet’s gotta look like Tom Cruise in ” Born on the 4th of July”.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AtUFkGwMYEf0AV4DVCJjCqol6ysC

    Fri April 11: How a neocon cartoonist gets away with playing the Race Card. Henry does a regular cartoon for William “The Bloody” Kristol’s Weekly Standard.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/henrypayne;_ylt=AmsX5iFBwQh0qH7sUZrB0bFW_b4F

    Thurs April 10: Whereas Ted Rall is an unabashed Commie Punk!
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tedrall;_ylt=AvVOdkYJ67em689d0xrxF.RW_b4F

  19. Hillaryphilics, this is gonna hurt.

    President – WINNER Latest Board Odds from Cbet:
    The Kid (firms5c)…………………..1.80
    Johnny Bomb-Bomb (steady) ……. 2.85
    Brutusina (drifts 50c)……………….5.50

  20. Al @ 731 and EC 758, Montana and Alaska will be won by McCain by at least 15 points. The candidates won’t be seen in either of them. Big wins for Obama in the primaries in those states = depth of support, not breadth. In any event, those polls are about as reliable as the reputable polls that have McCain running within a couple of points of Obama in Mass. and ahead of him in places NJ, Mich. Oregon and Washington.

    The only candidate I can think of who ran a “50 state strategy” was Alan Alda’s character in The Left Wing – and look what happened to him! The 50-state strategy is the US equivalent of Kennett campaigning in ALP seats in areas like Dandenong in the 99 Vic election

  21. 758
    Enemy Combatant

    Way back in 2003 (my, how time flies when you’re following a war!) I dubbed it the “changing camels strategy” and it went basically like this:

    Having a permanent base in Saudi Arabia has p!ssed off the Wahabbists, given the House of Saud a big headache as it tries to offer social reform (albeit limited), and is no longer close enough to the action. (It was, afterall, to ‘contain’ Saddam after his Kuwait sojourn).

    So, here was a great opportunity to pull up stumps, move over the border, and instead of being perched out there in the middle of the desert, they could take control of an entire country, and plop bases all over it.

    Hence, the changing camels strategy. Same race, (Middle East hegemony), differenet camel (Iraq).

    And lo, it’s come to pass, except the ‘cakewalk’ has turned out to be a nightmare of monstrous proportions.

    Excising the neocon cancer is essential if the US is to survive…weakened, yes, but still breathing. Fail, and they’re cactus.

  22. # 748 AL ,

    Healthcare. I’ve been through the 3 sites you supplied & the Candidates sites
    (but yet to finish some other sites on the subject)

    General Observations only
    Both Hillary & Obama have better healthcare policys than the Repugs.

    Both Hillary and Obama’s sites (at best) are disingenous describing the other Democrats position. So for the rust on supporters for either, the other allegedly has ‘inferior’ policy but neither supporter group gets a full fair comparison.

    re Robert Laszewski’s views.
    Most of (but not all) of the essential elements of both Hillary’s & Obama’s plans are listed , but ‘presented’ in less than favourable light

    If I was either candidate I wouldn’t be happy with him because his conclusion of both Plans is not encouraging. This is not surprising given both candidates ‘hit’ the Insurance industries pockets (Hillary far more so & so he was alittle tougher on Hillary) because this guy also is an ex senior Manager of a top 10 US Insurance Company.

    His example quoted of a 1 year mandated plan is hardly time to assess it & in any event it appears the subsidies are inadequate to make the premiums affordable & therefore an amateurish method to undermine mandating.
    I realize the guy does not reflect your opinions but his, & I’m responding to his.

    Thanks for the other 2 sites which were very informative , epecially if one reads both as one. These & other sites I’ve so far looked at should clarify following:

    Hillary is for mandating for all citizens. Obama is for mandating for children only.

    Hillary’s plan costings are $110 billion. Obama’s $50 to 65 billion , the difference partly due to coverage & the balance to savings with cuts

    Hillary may use the current Congress staff Health Insurance as an ideal model. Obama will actually introduce a new Government run Insurance business for some citizens competing with private Co.’s but with similar model requirements.

    Hillary offers ‘universality’ (as does John Edwards) for all , with some clever enforcement. Obama offers adults the choice to insure or not

    Both offer ‘affordability”. The details of which I’m looking at , as well as the comparative quantum of subsidies and tax credits being offered.

    We all agree the ‘oz’ model is the best , but politics in the US will not allow it

    I’d have to say “universiality” of healthcare IS a fundamental core of Labor Health Policy principle and John Edwards & Hillary have it and Obama for adults does not. So in principle I support the Labor way (Hillarys as being better)
    (but subject to the crucial ‘affordability’ & subsidy questions that should be examined )

    thanks
    ps/ if Obama supporters disagree ,

  23. CfE,

    Latest Rasmussen Reports polling (comparing like for like rather than bringing in other pollsters’ biases):

    Massachussets: Obama +7 over McCain (Kerry won by 25, inflated margin possibly due to favourite son)
    New Jersey: McCain +1 over Obama (Kerry won by 7%)
    Michigan: McCain +3 over Obama (Kerry won by only 3%, and you would expect at this stage the DNC’s decision to strip them of delegates to be hurting the Dem vote)
    Oregon: Obama +6 over McCain (Kerry won by 4%)
    Washington: Obama +5 over McCain (Kerry won by 7%)

    Now, those polls are not overly outside the box of what you would expect for the campaign at this stage. New Jersey is possibly a little surprise, but given the proximity to NY (hence strong Clinton support in the major cities) as well as lots of regional GOP support in the south, and it’s not too far outside the realm of possibility.

    Any wins in primaries or caucuses don’t mean anything come general election time, as much brighter minds than mine have shown statistically over past elections. But the point is that IF Obama is that close to McCain now and he hasn’t started the general election campaign, and even if Obama never visits those states in the election proper, McCain will need to make sure that he is at least shoring up his base before he can launch attacks on the purple states such as PA, OH, FL, MI etc. I don’t really doubt that the GOP will win MT and AL in November, but given McCain’s already stretched finances, actually having to pay any attention to them at all is going to hurt his campaign in purple states.

    The other side is to compare the historical financial contributions by state to the campaigns. While a lot of money trickles into GOP coffers through the big states of CA, FL and TX, if they are struggling for support at this early stage, then political donations will be slow making it more difficult to build momentum towards the general election. A good site for comparing state by state contributions appears to be this one. I was just having a look over it and it looked pretty good. There’s a lot of good stuff hidden throughout the site too.

    http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/statetotals.asp?cycle=2006

  28. There was some talk earlier about KD Lang being a cultural icon. I’m not sure what the crossover is between the KD Lang fans and Henry Rollins fans but there is an interesting article in The Age on Henry.

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/people/rollins-back-wielding-words-as-weapons/2008/04/11/1207856830980.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

    His description of his treatment by Australian and American officials while he has been traveling is interesting in the context of the discussion on here about Tibet and freedom etc.

  29. Hmmm, it can buy up to 10 BHPs.

    China’s forex reserve tops 1.68 trillion USD
    (Xinhua) – Updated: 2008-04-11 19:26

    China’s foreign exchange reserve reached US$ 1.68 trillion at the end of March, up 39.94 percent from the same period last year, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced in Beijing Friday.

    A total of 153.9 billion dollars was added to the forex reserve in the first quarter of 2008, an increment of 18.2 billion dollars more than a year ago, said the central bank.

    Growth of the forex reserve has been slowing since the beginning of this year, according to Xinhua’s calculation.

    China’s forex reserve rose about 60 billion dollars in January and 57 billion dollars in February.

    In March alone, the forex reserve rose 35 billion dollars, 9.7 billion dollars less than the same month of last year.

  30. Elizabeth Edwards ABC TV interview 9/4/08

    1/ publicly backs Hillary’s Health planover Obama’s

    “Edwards said she believed Clinton’s health-care plan was more inclusive than that of Obama’s.
    You need that universality in order to get the cost savings”

    2/ “Edwards said she thought letting the race end at the convention was a good idea.”

    MY CHALLENGE to Obama supporters , what do you think of Elizabeth Edwards
    You have been unrestrained with your venom for Hillary and anyone who supports anything about Hillary including ‘Hillary’ blogers ,what about Elizabeth.?

    http://www.abcnews.go.com/GMA/Vote2008/story?id=4617236&page=1

  31. r/Ron-
    “MY CHALLENGE to Obama supporters , what do you think of Elizabeth Edwards
    You have been unrestrained with your venom for Hillary and anyone who supports anything about Hillary including ‘Hillary’ blogers ,”

    Venom?? Surely we can elect to support Obama over Hillary without you feeling so personally disturbed and affronted.
    I’m sure there are many people who are perfectly reasonable individuals who support Hillary. It’s just that she should not be POTUS.

  32. I’m not personally disturbed and affronted at all by the venom that
    alot of Obama supporters use against Hillary , pro Hillary media articles & writers & blogers here. It was a statement.

    I was simply inviting those Obama supporters to be as consistent against Elizabeth Edwards. That was always too hard a call

  33. 780
    The Finnigans

    That their reserves should keep rising while the yuan appreciates is rather gravity defying, and further evidence that the USD is very much on the nose.(No surprises there! LOL)

    On another issue entirely, the rumours around Wall Street are that the Credit Default Swaps market is in serious peril as hedge funds were big originators as well as borrowers. (We’ve been seeing the fallout here all this week, Opes and Lift Capital for example). In other words, the big investment banks will be on the other end of this, and as we’ve just seen with Bear, they’re a tad fragile, to put it mildly.

    There’s plenty more brown stuff heading for the fan.

  35. God bless his soul, good ole Greg Sheridan has got it right for a change. The Beijing University is the cradle of movements against existing regime or authority. From the 1919 May Fourth movement against the then feudal Manchu Empire, to anti japanese invasion and last but at least the 1989 Tiananmen movement. This really makes Rudd’s speech and where he made it so remarkable and gutsy. Is he planting the seed for a new movement by the current students of Beijing University to the current regime? We do live in an interesting time.

    “PM makes great leap on China”
    Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor | April 12, 2008

    LU Kewen, as our Prime Minister is known to tens of millions in Mandarin, is usually no Red Guard. In fact, he is a counter-revolutionary, having written his honours thesis admiringly on the famous Chinese dissident Wei Jingsheng, who wrote a brilliant large character wall poster on the “fifth modernisation”: democracy, which China’s leaders have refused to embrace as part of their economic modernisation……………. Similarly, his Mandarin language and his undeniable love of Chinese culture provided the best possible context for his harder messages to Beijing. But, still, there was no guarantee at all that the Chinese would not react by cancelling his high-level appointments and humiliating him.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23524628-7583,00.html

  37. Michael Carlton also got it right when he said:

    “KEVIN Rudd’s quirky little greeting to George W. Bush – half salute, half wave – caused a frightful ruckus. “Conduct unbecoming, sniffed “Please-Call-Me-Brendan-I-Prefer-Brendan”……….. George Brandis, a Liberal senator from Queensland, was most put out. “When the Prime Minister went to call upon the Queen he didn’t make the customary neck bow,” he sniffed…………

    We must hope that Kevin gets it right in Beijing. The traditional approach to the Chinese leadership used to be to crawl into the presence on all fours, eyes fixed firmly upon the carpet, waiting apprehensively for a favour to be dispensed or the blow to fall”

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/mike-carlton/whos-laughing-all-the-way-to-the-bank-now/2008/04/11/1207856825785.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

    Instead, he stood up in the lions’ den. Remarkable and Gutsy.

  38. “KEVIN Rudd’s quirky little greeting to George W. Bush – half salute, half wave –

    An Australian may interpret the half salute, half wave as being only half impressed with George Bush

    It strikes me that the intellectual audacity of Kevin07 to say the words AND the historic setting for them is likely to be remembered ,
    and in turn causing the fundamental “message” to be long remembered

  39. Edgey Chris at 771: “…..EC 758, Montana and Alaska will be won by McCain by at least 15 points”

    Chris, I know you are connected up the wazoo with Sep business associates but your above comment leads reasonable people to believe that you also have more than a passing acquaintance with that Pommie perception polisher, Lily Gilders.

    In the contest for a US Senate seat, “The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Stevens(GOP incumbent) is essentially even with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich(Dem). Stevens currently attracts 46% of the vote while Begich earns 45%. Four percent (4%) say they’d vote for a third party option while 5% are not sure.”
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/alaska/election_2008_alaska_senate

    Chris, I’m prepared to wager you a bottle of quality plonk that Johnny Bomb-Bomb will not win Alaska by double figures over Obi, let alone “by at least 15 points”.
    Wanna play, big boy?

    Kirribilli at 772, enjoyed your “changing camels mid-quagmire” assessment of the Sep-MIC’s wars without end.
    If you, sir, were at the wheel of one of your interstate vans which bore a rear slogan, “you are passing another fox”, a veracious defence could be mounted in the event of a copyright infringement plaint. LOFL!!

  40. #790 Chris ,

    you should insist the prize (‘a bottle of quality plonk’) is the most expensive quality one , so that afterwards you can fully enjoy drinking that quality.

    (perhaps with a caveat of a no ‘Perot’ type candidate also standing)

  41. #789 – Ron, the Chinese are not stupid. Politically, she needs Australia more than Australian needs her at the moment. She is not exactly brimming with international friends at the moment. Not to mention she needs our effing minerals.

    That is why Rudd must go to the Olympic Opening, even weak-piss like Brown, Sarkozy, Bush. Ban Ki-moon etc etc will not go.

    That will show the Chinese that Mr. Lu Kewen is indeed a ““zhengyou”. [A true friend is one who can be a “zhengyou” , that is a partner who sees beyond immediate benefit to the broader and firm basis for continuing, profound and sincere friendship]. The Chinese will be grateful to Mr. Lu for a thousand years.

  43. agree Finns.

    my comment “the speech will be long remembered” refers to both those who passionatelly support standing up for human rights and the Chinese themselves

    My point was the Chinese WILL remember , and long after the Media & every other World Pollie has forgotten.

    That is the greatness of the Speech and its profound “messages” to the students and the Chinese Government

  44. #785 – Be careful Obama. Another tag is being hung here. You have been labelled as not “patriotic” enough, now being “elitist and looking down at middle america”. Careful, they might hear you.

    “Obama, an Illinois senator, was reported to have told a crowd at a San Francisco fundraiser earlier this week he understood why the struggles of residents in towns hard hit by manufacturing job losses would make them bitter.

    “You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them,” Obama was quoted as saying by the Huffington Post. “And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations,” he said”.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1139439220080411

  45. It is an odd one Finns. But hard to argue with the sentiments. It will certainly keep Obama in the forefront of the news cycle.

    This will probably play out in Pennsylvania as a contest about who can frame the issue best. Clinton’s response has been along the lines of ‘no one is bitter, the people of Penn are hopeful’, Obama has argued that he is empathising with the working-classes and that it is a Washington response to say all is well. Seems pretty high risk stuff, but Obama has successfully set the frames of the issues so far. Tougher crowd this time though – it will be interesting to see the next handful of polls out of Penn.

    On a side note, Republican strategists have already been on FOX claiming that this remark alone will cost Obama the Whitehouse – scared clutching at straws if ever I have seen it.

  49. Finns & Pancho

    “And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations”

    and many will say , does that sound like Pastor Wright speaking ?

    However , Obama’s subsequent response ’empathising with the ‘working classes’
    has painted his view of ‘working classes’ in hardship accross lots of America.

    That is a description which is not only condesending at best , but displays to hardship working classes that he is NOT of them and a level of empathy which is qualified (by the uncomplimentary description of their values & prejudices)

    It may be argued Obama did not covey this or if so did not intend to convey this , but I think not. Far better to admit an error in his ‘broadness’ of the numbers , but in any event it was politically naive (as was Bill’s foray today but causing lesser impact)

    The story may fade , given the ‘left’ leaning US mainstream press which is the reverse of what we have in ‘oz’

  50. r/Ron
    did you watch his response?
    it is not condescending- it is emapathic.
    you are just running the party line, and it’s trite.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 16 of 23
1 … 15 16 17 … 23