Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

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  1. Ron, we have a responsibility to censure every unqualified smear now?

    Jeezus – sounds like a full time job.

    You can be the hall monitor Ron.

  2. And when we spot an evil doer and need the hall monitor we can use the special hall monitor emergency call….

    DA DO RON RON RON
    DA DO RON RON

  3. 49 – jv

    Put me down for Hillary to withdraw shortly after Puerto Rico after the remaining superdelegates finally pull the plug.

  4. r/Ron – Your date, time and candidate? Are you a player?
    GG?

    codger -easy, easy – WB was just having a gentle lend. I personally find your ‘gibberish’ quite edifying compared to some other alleged non-gibberish we read here (self included at times) – yours is more like ‘blogging doggerel’ than gibberish.

    See what I mean (From Wiki):
    “Some poets, however, make a virtue of writing what appears to be doggerel but is actually clever and entertaining despite its apparent technical faults. Such authors include: Ogden Nash; Pam Ayres”

    Note for r/Ron on this point – If you are, you know, by chance ever posting stuff with ‘apparent technical faults’, please make sure it is also ‘clever and entertaining’ will you?

  5. In my reading of Pelosi’s latest comments, she is clearly laying down a challenge to the remaining Supers.In a way, she is calling their bluff.

    She says they have a right to vote for whoever they want but they should get out and campaign for who they support.

    It would take remarkable courage(not in abundant supply) or political stupidity(not in abundant supply) for any Super to openly support Clinton from here on in.

    Pelosi is openly saying, pick a candidate and start working NOW. Don’t just sit on your smug asses and watch our chances diminish.

  6. GG @ 58 haha. Is that on the 12th of never at 12, Barack to concede?
    Not a player then eh? 3 nice bottles could be yours …

  7. Apparantly Bill’s bloodpressure is rising…

    “You know when the Clinton Campaign is nearing defeat. It is the beginning of the end when Slick goes into a tirade with Democrat Party delegates no less:

    The Bill Clinton who met privately with California’s superdelegates at last weekend’s state convention was a far cry from the congenial former president who afterward publicly urged fellow Democrats to “chill out” over the race between his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton, and Barack Obama.

    In fact, before his speech Clinton had one of his famous meltdowns Sunday, blasting away at former presidential contender Bill Richardson for having endorsed Obama, the media and the entire nomination process.

    “It was one of the worst political meetings I have ever attended,” one superdelegate said.

    According to those at the meeting, Clinton – who flew in from Chicago with bags under his eyes – was classic old Bill at first, charming and making small talk with the 15 or so delegates who gathered in a room behind the convention stage.

    But as the group moved together for the perfunctory photo, Rachel Binah, a former Richardson delegate who now supports Hillary Clinton, told Bill how “sorry” she was to have heard former Clinton campaign manager James Carville call Richardson a “Judas” for backing Obama.

    It was as if someone pulled the pin from a grenade.

    “Five times to my face (Richardson) said that he would never do that,” a red-faced, finger-pointing Clinton erupted.

    The former president then went on a tirade that ran from the media’s unfair treatment of Hillary to questions about the fairness of the votes in state caucuses that voted for Obama. It ended with him asking delegates to imagine what the reaction would be if Obama was trailing by just 1 percent and people were telling him to drop out.

    “It was very, very intense,” said one attendee. “Not at all like the Bill of earlier campaigns.”

    And what did he say to the waiting audience? We need to chill out…..

    What a piece of work! ”

    http://stuckon-stupid.com/2008/04/02/dear-hillary-bad-news-its-over/

  8. Latest ad on PA telly.

    “Hillary For President
    “Ringing”
    TV :30

    Announcer: It’s 3 am, and your children are safe and asleep.
    (Oh-oh, here we go again)

    But there’s a phone ringing in the White House and this time the crisis is economic.
    (probably a good idea to give the Commander-In-Chief thing a rest after the Bosnian beat-up)

    Home foreclosures mounting, markets teetering.
    (Thank you for holding, we appreciate your call. The Fed are busy bailing out Merrill Lynch but our first available operator will be with you momentarily)

    John McCain just said the government shouldn’t take any real action on the housing crisis, he’d let the phone keep ringing.
    (What a prick! Actually Johnny takes his hearing aid out before hitting the sack and he’s got a platoon of flacks and hacks to handle incoming)

    Hillary Clinton has a plan to protect our homes, create jobs.
    (Yeah, right. Genesis Employment.)

    It’s 3 am, time for a president who’s ready.
    (That’s why by brunch time she looks like a heavy debtor demanding an overdraft extension at The Allergan-Botox Bank).

    Hillary Clinton: I’m Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.”

    (Meanwhile the SDs just keep falling into The Kid’s camp)

  9. The only calls Hillary will be getting about a financial crisis at 3 am are from her campaign’s creditors threatening to send in the debt collectors.

    And what is Hillary’s plan. Bring back Greenspan and Rubin who caused to problem. No wonder no-one is listening to her anymore.

    PS I’ll donate a bottle of Rockford’s Basket Press 1994 to the pool if Billary quits before June 3, the date of the final primary.

  10. Diogenes -[Bring back Greenspan and Rubin who caused to problem. No wonder no-one is listening to her anymore.]
    Yes, the ad is to try to bolster her non-existent credentials on the economy.

    Next, she will recount her ‘memory’ of how she passed Alan Greenspan in a white house corridor in September 1997 and warned him of a market crash that would occur on 21 October due to problems in Asia, and how the impact of the mini-crash on the US economy was much less as a result of her intervention.

    [I’ll donate a bottle of Rockford’s Basket Press 1994 to the pool if Billary quits before June 3]
    Crikey! That’s a top drop Diogenes – right off the top shelf. I’ve tried it once – a more recent vintage – and it was superb. A fine contribution.

  11. Wed April 2: Why Gore was smart to not run.
    http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Aj6WoNQU8oL2.rQgySl.4mcDwLAF
    Wed.April 2: Over five years ago The Imbecile assured The World that oil would be $20 a barrel after god’s gift of freedom had been bestowed upon Iraq and the evil didctaor and his Al Kaeda buddies were given the flick along with all the WMDs and human shredding machines (actually I think the last bit of bs was the former El Rodente).
    Que pasa El Presidente Arbusto?
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/laloalcaraz;_ylt=Am1HMoZd_lpo4BlvLW6qD.ZL6ysC

    Wed April 2: How American Democracy drives your buck further.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AiMvoxfQUfVZiYtej2050g7X.sgF

  12. More on the conservative case for Obama:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/philip-giraldi/obama-the-conservative-ch_b_94761.html

    ‘Huffington Post progressives should look to the conversation that is going on among traditional conservatives if they are seriously interested in nominating a candidate who would be both electable and good for the country. As a conservative, it is frankly incomprehensible to me that anyone would want to go back to the sleaze, constant political triangulation, sense of aggrieved entitlement, and low-life characters like Sandy Berger that characterized the Clinton White House.

    …Other conservatives have observed that Obama might also seriously address the hemorrhaging of America’s manufacturing base that has taken place under the auspices of President George W. Bush, a trend that would undoubtedly continue under either McCain or Clinton, both of whom are either ambivalent about or committed to globalism and free trade. America must put its own house in order first and it is time to challenge many of the economic and social assumptions that have driven policy over the past 15 years.

    In short, Obama for president is beginning to look pretty good to many conservatives and that means that a Barack Obama administration might actually bridge the gap between right and left, finally bringing together American citizens who are intent on righting the foundering ship of state rather than preserving the status quo. Clinton and McCain represent little more than two nightmarish visions of an out-of-touch political reality that has manifestly failed and should be rejected.’

  13. Geez Diog, I bow at your feet. How did you get hold of a Basket Press 94?? And why would you give it away???? Here’s what Halliday has to say:

    “Rockford can only be described as an icon, no matter how over-used that word may be. It has a devoted band of customers who buy most of the wine through the cellar door or mail order (Rocky O’Callaghan’s entrancing annual newsletter is like no other.) Some wine is sold through restaurants, and there are two retailers in Sydney, and 1 each in Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Whether they will have the Basket Press Shiraz available is another matter; it is as scarce as Henschke Hill of Grace (and less expensive).”

    Almost makes me want to take a stab at the date and time the stake will be administered.

    Almost

  14. How are Rocky and Bullwinkle today?
    Sounds like the Big Bull is getting a bit stressed- maybe he should call Monica for some stress relief. In the meantime I’m going to bet Hillary is declared dead after the Pennsylvania poll within 48 hours. But she won’t go without a fight, so she won’t declare, she’ll be pushed.
    If Obama is getting a lead in Penn. this far out it would be far better for her to jump now, but that would take integrity and well, that just ain’t gonna happen.

  15. My lend wasn’t that gentle really, JV. I really don’t think Codger’s brand of “doggerel” (to put the kindest possible spin of it) is appropriate for a site such as this. In future I will require that his contributions be grammatical, comprehensible, relevant to politics, and of conceivable interest to more than one other person.

  16. 67 Ferny

    I bought two dozen about ten years ago and I’ve gone off wine since then so I’m happy do donate them to a good cause.

    And Big Bill is losing it completely. He repeatedly says Billary is only one per cent behind. It’s 3.0% using RCP.

    It’s the Hunting of the Snark again.
    ” I have said it thrice:
    What I tell you three times is true.”

  17. Ferny G @ 67 – It’s a glorious drop to contemplate isn’t it? But, you won’t take a stab on the concession date and time? I hear you’ve got the balls, so – c’mon! Give it a go.

    Jen @ 68- Good one Jen – a commitment to after Penn. You must have the balls too! This gender business is confusing.
    After Penn is my prediction too – but pick the specific date and time of day so you can win Diog’s basket press gem and two others. Since Diogenes threw that label in I’ve upgraded my bottle so as not to appear as a cardboard handbag wino!

  18. Wed April 2: Why Gore was smart to not run.
    http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Aj6WoNQU8oL2.rQgySl.4mcDwLAF
    Wed.April 2: Over five years ago The Imbecile assured The World that oil would be $20 a barrel after god’s gift of freedom had been bestowed upon Iraq and the evil dictator and his Al Kaeda buddies were given the flick along with all the WMDs and human shredding machines (actually I think the last bit of bs was the former El Rodente).
    Que pasa El Presidente Arbusto?
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/laloalcaraz;_ylt=Am1HMoZd_lpo4BlvLW6qD.ZL6ysC

    Wed April 2: How Democracy drives your buck further.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AiMvoxfQUfVZiYtej2050g7X.sgF

    Wed. April 2: Kickin’ back in Dogpatch…… At Home with the Arkansas Travellers.
    NB pooch on porch, Lil Abner corn pipe, hanging fly paper, wringer washing machine, moonshine in corner and begging note on front door.
    .http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AkM.pwMeutmEIFKJpRuQPi1X_b4F
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li'l_Abner
    On song like here, Danziger is one of the most vicious of contemporary Sep cartoonists. The voters that Hillary is courting will bust a gut when this cartoon hits the Appalachian grapevine, especially in PA.
    ——————————–
    Rocky and Bullwinkle is good, jen, delightfully squirrilist and moosist. Would you also buy Boris and Natasha?

  19. More or less final results from Zimbabwe House of Assembly election.
    MDC Tsvangirai leads with 99 seats; Zanu PF has 97 seats; MDC Mutambara has 10 seats; and Jonathan Moyo (Independent) has his one seat. The split in the MDC cost the opposition about 10 seats given the first past the post voting system. Still a fantastic result given the repression, bribery and no doubt vote fiddling employed by Mugabe’s government.
    No official figures for presidential votes yet but clear that Mugabe is well behind the combined opposition vote. Not certain that Tsvangirai will get the 51% needed for first round win but run-off would seem certain to elect him barring even more repression or military intervention.
    Also waiting to see Senate (upper house figures). Apparently Sekai Holland has won a Senate seat. Independence ambassador, survivor and hero.
    http://www.sokwanele.com is a good source of figures.

  20. jv – I said within 48 hrs of the Penn election. 10 am EST.
    My donation – a bottle of Sorrenberg Sauv Blanc.( If there’s any left with my late night PB sessions , glass in hand.)
    BTW what are the logistics of the winner getting the stuff? Do we go via Bilbo?
    Or perhaps we could drop all donations off at the PB pool, as we will be having a special practice session for the valedictory performance (special guest appearance by Obama walking on water) whilst the PB Synchronised Swimming Squad perform aquabatics the like that have never been seen.

  21. William @ 70 -[In future I will require that his contributions be grammatical, comprehensible, relevant to politics, and of conceivable interest to more than one other person.]

    Well, I guess Ogden Nash and even Pam Ayres (shudder) would measure up to those standards, so there can’t really be any complaint.
    I would hope though that codger can match Ogden’s:

    “Just Keep Quiet and Nobody Will Notice”
    “…
    Because you are very rude if you let them emerge from an argument victorious,
    And when they say something of theirs is awful, it is your duty to convince them politely that it is magnificent and glorious,
    And what particularly bores me with them,
    Is that half the time you have to politely contradict them when you rudely agree with them, …”

  22. wakefield –
    Mark Penn is Boris and I’m still not sure about Natasha. Could be Nanacy Pelosi as she seems to have an agenda to get Hillary. Any suggestions welcome. First prize- nothing.

  23. Jen – Got your time then – 24 April @ 1000 hrs. Delivery? We’ll work something out -post it or whatever. I think there’s some mechanism for outside parallel contact via email here for addresses – not sure about that exactly. You can get wine post packs at the PO I think.
    Although, Diogenes’ bottle will need to be hand delivered by a wing-ed virgin in a muslin smock.

    Otherwse, yeah, a pool party, scuba – drinking wine sitting on the bottom of the pool after synchronicity training.

  24. 72
    JV, I’m almost forced to offer one of my magnums of Basedow Semillon 99 – one of Australia’s truly great semillons.

    As for a date and time: If anyone drops out it will be Hillary, but she won’t go after PA. Dean has said he wants the contest resolved by 1 July, but he doesn’t have the gravitas to force the issue. He will be ignored. Any end to this race will happen for other reasons than Dean’s insipid involvement.

    So I don’t think Diog’s fine wine is really on the table because it will NOT be resolved by 3 June. The real question is ‘when will the remaining SD’s make a move?’ My guess is they won’t (other than the current trickle) till after the primaries are over. So, I’m hoping that they will move in the fortnight following June 3 – but that’s just my wishful thinking.

    So, for me – it’s Hillary to concede – possibly wearing a Hannibal Lecter-type mask – sometime on or about June 21 at 3pm.

    But for the sake of winning Diog’s wonderful wine, I’m tempted to have a stab at Hillary conceding around 9:45pm following the return of the results of the last primaries on 3 June.

  25. Now Diog….about those remaining Basket Press bottles that are simply gathering dust at your place……care to sell them to a serious appreciator of great Aussie reds?

  26. For archivists, the Danziger cartoon at 75 date was April 2.

    Wed April 2: Dropoffolics Anonymous.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=AordIep70GBpjaMbxrKav.jV.i8C

    Wed April 2: Growler at 62, you wanted to talk oil. Check out the grunter.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=ApX8diuqfelQrH9CXwo.PQZN_b4F

    Wed April 2: Tommy gets a guernsey today on the strength of Condi’s 3 dial shots.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AuyL1S814g6H6LtlKowKcV9T_b4F

  27. 56 – jv

    Hillary to step down 10 June 2008 at 2:00 p.m.
    (not voluntarily – although her speech willl highlight all her achievements)

  28. asanque –
    it will be a long one then what with her bringing peace to Ireland, and stopping the war in the Balkans, and single handedly catching a nuclear missile from the top of the Empire State Building (or was that King Kong?), inventing penicillin and all… how will we get by without her???

  29. Are there no beer drinkers on PB?

    Hillary to concede 7th May Midday….after PA,IN and NC and it is clear(even to her) she can’t win the popular vote.
    Shortly after MI and FL told delegates will be seated at convention.
    Dems unite and beat George Bush’s and Bomb-Bomb’s Party quite easily at the election.

  30. REPLY TO #48 Ron :

    #51 Ferny Grover
    “Ron, we have a responsibility to censure every unqualified smear now?
    Jeezus – sounds like a full time job. You can be the hall monitor Ron.”

    # 50 Yo ho ho April
    Ron “Should we get Obama to denounce or reject Codger’s comments?”

    #55 J/V
    “Codger…WB was just having a gentle lend.”..
    “Note for r/Ron on this point – If you are, you know, by chance ever posting stuff with ‘apparent technical faults’,…”

    Ron says:
    My simple equest to bloggers unambiguously referred to the Moderator only & to respect the Institution, the Moderator’s integrity. I gave a reminder of it , but
    if one doesn’t then understand this ‘standard’ it sure cann’t be taught.
    Yet the word ‘Omamabot’ was offensive. Perhaps bloggers may have a further
    2nd thought & on not worry about breaking ranks , and if not I will NOT reblog and will move on.

  31. I know Harry – a bloody lot of chardonnay sipping, latte drinking…

    Refocussing.

    More Clinton lies:

    “New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson on Wednesday sharply disputed Bill Clinton’s reported claim that Richardson promised to endorse Hillary Clinton’s bid for the White House.

    “I never did,” Richardson said. “I never saw [President Clinton] five times. I saw him when he watched the Super Bowl with me. We made it very clear to him that he shouldn’t expect an endorsement after that meeting.”

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/02/richardson-i-never-promised-clintons/

  32. They say it takes one to know one, so maybe once Miranda Devine in today’s SMH is spot on; Hillary is losing because she’s a lying b!tch who’ll do anything and say anything to aggrandise herself.

    Wow, this is almost a first, I totally agree with Miranda Devine! Should I buy a lottery ticket or something?

  33. 91
    Pancho

    It’s hard not to get the feeling that Hillary is turning into the Imelda of US politics, but instead of a collection of shoes, it’s a collection of mistruths, and misspokes and lots of unsavoury things tucked away.

    Sad.

  34. 87
    Beer, Harry?? Beer???? When there’s an abundance of good Aussie wine about?? I mean, would you grab a burger when the food of the gods (well, Bacchus is a god) is laid out before you???

    We are a discerning lot here on PB after all.

  35. Yo ho ho – good article. Mean challenge to throw out though. In the interests of balance and devils advocacy, can I offer, in no particular order, a response to all ten debunked myths? Ahem…JEREMIAH WRIGHT! Oh, and of course ‘yeah, well it doesn’t matter that she can’t win when it counts, because don’t you see she is the ONLY ONE WHO CAN WIN WHEN IT COUNTS!’

  36. There’s a few of us that have raised the problem – I know Jaundiced vVew is another worried PB.
    Can’t think of any other reason why the Hillary supporters would go quiet in the face of so much evidence that she should stand down and let Obama get on with beating McCain.
    Wouldn’t be sour-grapes sulking now, would it.

  37. There is another explanation Jen. Hillary has not been abducted by aliens – she IS an alien! You will recall that KR was discerning enough to pick this up some weeks ago.

    And in her own small alien world, Hillary can still win this – and in fact is the ONLY one who can win this.

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