Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

Comments Page 5 of 23
1 … 4 5 6 … 23

  1. Anybody else think those are remarkably good odds for McCain at $2.80?

    Yes, he faces an uphill battle to win. Nobody disputes that. But stranger things will happen, and at some point the press will chip away at Obama a bit more. Probably once their current playing toy drops out. And once it becomes 1v1, his odds will drop considerably. He still has at least a month left in which he can build his foundations and raise a bit of spare cash, and it’s probably close to two. I really don’t care what the press waffle about, while their may be advantages to Clinton staying in, the disadvantages almost certainly outweigh them.

    Still, I think Karl Rove was on the ball when he said the wounds are fresh and look nasty, but aren’t too deep to mortally wound the eventual candidate.

    The odds for Obama ($1.90) aren’t bad either, although it is questionable as to whether they could get better in the coming months. And of course there is still the chance he will lose the nomination, so it’s a bit tricky to hedge bets at this point, given there is a slight chance you can lose it all. But the McCain bet looks a goer. And anybody who plonked on Obama a few months ago can now guarantee themselves a profit by throwing a few bob on McCain.

    Ah the benefits of foresight.

  2. During Bill Clinton’s presidency, he was persuaded not to intervene in the Bosnian genocide. He read a book called Balkan Ghosts which argued that the Balkans would never be stable due to age-old conflicts. He famously wimped out in the Balkans, as did Bush 1 (Maggie Thatcher offered to start up a company called “Rent-a Spine”). And who gave him the book… Hillary “Freedom for Bosnia” Clinton. Hitchens would be proud!

    The Dangers of Letting a President Read
    http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E00E6D61631F931A15756C0A96F958260&sec=&spon=

  3. Thanks, HarryH.

    Anyone who saw Al Gore’s performance after FL 2000 in the US Senate which was well documented in Farenheit 911, smacking down dozens of black district challengers one after the other who cried foul at the Florida result should enjoy this little gem.
    Sat. April 5:
    http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Ar.sB4_bqGlHPK..aKN3PqkDwLAF

    Sat. April 5: Waste a Raghead while securing YOUR ticky-tacky* box !
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AvRdOJiDmCZ5eBrwFN1FWn3X.sgF

    * Little boxes on the hillside,
    Little boxes made of ticky-tacky,
    Little boxes, little boxes,
    Little boxes, all the same.
    There’s a green one and a pink one
    And a blue one and a yellow one
    And they’re all made out of ticky-tacky
    And they all look just the same.
    (Malvina Reynolds)

    Fri. April 4: Tyranny /n. the cruel and arbitrary use of authority.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AkmdfBt3tICjweKpT5RFWhtQ_b4F

    Fri April 4: “In God We Trust”, but not even God can sink this economy!
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=Akjph1jaZJgmHL_TmvhVch9N_b4FFirefoxHTML\Shell\Open\Command

    Fri April 4: Hey! She’s an American, OK?! She saw a chance to make a buck……
    so she took it!*
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffstahler;_ylt=ApzkDyKO4NT7r65QYygGpxBU_b4F
    *with a little help from Mae-Rose Prizzi (Angelica Houston) to Charley Partana (Jack Nicholson) in Prizzi’s Honor.

    “Anybody else think those are remarkably good odds for McCain at $2.80?”
    Not really, Max. No price is a good price about a loser. I do agree, however, that Obi’s odds of ~ $1.90 are worth the punt. A 90% ROI in seven months isn’t bad considering the quality of his opponents.

  4. 197
    Enemy Combatant

    Best post on I’ve read on the Obama vs Clinton race. You have put the case for Obama so succinctly. I have always believed and said that Obama as POTUS would be the best result to seriously fight Global Warming, the tension between the Muslim world and the West as well as the financial crisis that is moron Bush’s devastating legacy.

    A black man, son of a Muslim as POTUS!! I believe that Obama would be a unifying figure internationally. He would go a long way in regaining the respect and solidarity as expressed by Chirac in the wake of September 11 when he said “Today we are all Americans”. We need as many unifying world leaders as we can get.

  5. The Audacity of Hype.

    From the Politico, here’s a wonderful example of Barack Obama puffery:

    Even as he fends off Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic nomination contest, Senator Barack Obama is already turning his attention to the general election, and to an ambitious plan to reshape the American electorate in his favor.
    Bringing new voters to the polls “is going to be a very big part of how we win,” said Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, in an interview. “Barack’s appeal to independent voters is also going to be key.”
    Hildebrand said the campaign is likely to turn its attention and the energy of its massive volunteer army this fall on registering African-American voters, and voters under 35 years old, in key states.
    “Can it change the math in Ohio? Very much so,” he said. “If you look at the vote spread between Bush and Kerry in 2004–we could potentially erase that.”
    Ho hum, he’s preparing a general election strategy. But according to Politico, it’s “an ambitious plan to reshape the American electorate”! Last month he gave a speech designed to control the political damage resulting from a dubious association. But as we noted, the Associated Press described this as single-handedly confronting the nation’s racial divide head-on!

    If he steps in a puddle, the headline will read “Obama Walks on Water.”

  6. Hey Grinch –
    If he steps in a puddle, the headline will read “Obama Walks on Water.”
    I told you, we’re recruiting him for the PB Synchronised Swimmers.

    Just checked out the polls- He’s even going to win Pennsylvania at this stage if the trend continues, and he’s over 5% ahead on overall spread- …she’s toast.

  9. Kirri,
    I was referring to the fact that she has lost such a big lead in such a short time, so it’s possible he could overtake her and win it, which only days ago was not even considered possible. He’s got the momentum.

  12. Jen @ 210,
    I reckon Obama can win PA, or at least get pretty close.
    And, yes, she is definitely toast. I didn’t always think that, but I was a Good Friday convert – the day (Oz time) that Richardson “came out”.

  13. I don’t want to sound like I’m pouring water on your faith Jen, but I’d be pleasantly surprised if the Kid took PA, but, I’d expect Clinton to scrape it through like Texas.

    In which case, she’s still toast!

  14. You’re probably right Kirri, but it would be the clincher, and it’s not outside the realm of possibilities. There is a change afoot, and Obama is the symbol.

  15. Dyno @ 213
    It was Good Friday, hence the Judas comment from Carville. I seem to recall struggling to get some enthusiasm from my fellow bludgers who were otherwise occupied over some trivial matter. 😉

  16. Well GG being reincarnated DLP isn’t a bad thing. However it goes a long way in explaining why you’d support hillary ahead of obama. Hillary is acceptable to the status quo of the establishment, Obama definitely isn’t.

    The world is at a critical turning point. Maintaining the status quo is the wrong option. We need DLP conservatism to hone our arguement for change. To expose the stupidity of maintaining the status quo.

  17. Max @217,

    “Hillary is acceptable to the status quo of the establishment, Obama definitely isn’t.”

    Not if you are reading the same Obamaphobic tosh that passses as reportage that I am.

    “The world is at a critical turning point.”

    Which world would that be?

    You and EC would make a great pair with your meaningless cliche driven 60’s protest song view of the world. Kumbayah indeed.

  18. GG – This sort of reportage?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/05/clinton-under-fire-over-f_n_95218.html
    “Clinton Under Fire Over False Story Of Health Care Horror”

    “Over the last five weeks, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has featured in her campaign stump speeches the story of a health care horror: an uninsured pregnant woman who lost her baby and died herself after being denied care by an Ohio hospital because she could not come up with a $100 fee.

    The woman, Trina Bachtel, did die last August, two weeks after her baby boy was stillborn at O’Bleness Memorial Hospital in Athens, Ohio. But hospital administrators said Friday that Ms. Bachtel was under the care of an obstetrics practice affiliated with the hospital, that she was never refused treatment and that she was, in fact, insured.[…]”

  20. GG @ 218
    Did you really man Obamaphobic tosh?

    Obamaphobic would be fear of Obama. 👿
    Obamaphilic would be love of Obama. 😀

  21. Diogenes – stop letting facts get in the way of hillaryhillaryhillaryhillaryhillaryhillary…

    A couple of others worth a look:

    She still hasn’t worked out the meaning of ‘pledged’ here –
    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Story?id=4596305&page=2
    “Sen. Hillary Clinton made a blunt appeal to North Dakota delegates to switch their support to her, despite the fact that Sen. Barack Obama handily defeated her in the state’s caucus in February.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/us/politics/05clintons.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1207436434-j3Dd8LQCic6vjGqI0n59oQ
    “During that time, the Clintons paid $33.8 million in federal taxes and claimed deductions for $10.2 million in charitable contributions. The contributions went to a family foundation run by the Clintons that has given away only about half of the money they put into it, and most of that was last year, after Mrs. Clinton declared her candidacy.”

  25. GG, you asked about Opes Prime the other day, well here’s an excellent article on the mess:

    http://business.smh.com.au/banks-the-ringmasters-in-ruinous-financial-circus/20080404-23re.html

    …and what you need to know is that the ANZ, by ‘lending’ the shares to hedge funds to short sell, basically fueled the demise of Opes.

    It’s really high farce.

    Its connection to the subprime disaster is that the initial falls in our market where related to the uncertaintities about financial institutions’ liquidity; ANZ just helped it along.

  26. 224
    Pancho

    McCain is trying to look like one of the founding fathers!

    Who’s writing this stuff?

    Maybe they’ve figured that Bush is seen as having lied about WMD etc, so he’s trying to make out he’s different?

    It’s really pretty awful stuff, corny and pompous, and he’s only got a few lies brought out for public attention to make him look really stupid.

  27. Amusing:

    Mark Penn, the chief campaign strategist for Hillary Clinton, in his day job as CEO of the public relations and lobbying firm Burson-Marsteller, turns out to be under contract to Colombia to promote U.S. congressional passage of a free trade agreement with the South American nation. According to the Wall Street Journal, Penn met with Colombia’s ambassador to the U.S. on Monday to discuss the deal. So even as he was presumably advising the Clinton campaign to sharpen its anti-trade message to win votes in Ohio, he was simultaneously stuffing himself at the pro-trade buffet.

    Penn’s behavior is utterly appropriate, from the standpoint of a public relations profession. Like criminal defense lawyers, public relations executives are there do a job, irrespective of their personal feelings. No one cares whether Penn himself is pro- or anti-trade — Burson-Marsteller is in the business to make (a lot of) bucks.

    But from the standpoint of Hillary Clinton, Penn’s behavior might look a little different. Personally, if I had already paid Penn $10 million for his services, I’d be miffed at his Colombia FTA moonlighting — that doesn’t seem like good value for money spent.

    Salon.com

  29. KR @ 228,
    Most professions now are (at least notionally) pretty tough on conflicts of interests, real or perceived. Assuming the info is correct, what Penn has done would get him sacked if I was Clinton.

  30. Andrew Leonard in Salon tells an interesting story about how his friend gave evidence in a congressional hearing in 1991 about deregulating the financial industry. This of course was to lead to today’s mess, and here’s what this guy told them, seventeen years ago:

    Banks that need to get money to a troubled securities affiliate will do exactly the same thing. By linking up three or more banks, each with its own securities subsidiary, a daisy chain will facilitate a round robin of reciprocal loans in times of need. Then, the next time we have a Black Monday on Wall Street, this daisy chain will swing into action as a handful of mega-banks try to prop one another’s securities subsidiaries and their customers as the market plummets.

    In such a scenario, billions of federally insured dollars will disappear in the twinkle of a few program trades.

    That will happen, not might happen but will happen, and when it does these too-big-to-fail banks will have to be propped up with Federal money. In the smoking aftermath, Congress can stand around and wring its hands and give speeches about how awful it is that these bankers violated the spirit of the law, but once again, the money will be gone, the bill will have come due, and taxpayers will again be required to cough it up.

    …no one can see they could not see it coming, unless they were willfully blind or lying.

    And so, it came to pass.

  32. Lies no: 11??

    Obama Adviser Calls for Troops To Stay in Iraq Through 2010
    By ELI LAKE, STAFF REPORTER OF THE SUN | April 4, 2008

    WASHINGTON — A key adviser to Senator Obama’s campaign is recommending in a confidential paper that America keep between 60,000 and 80,000 troops in Iraq as of late 2010, a plan at odds with the public pledge of the Illinois senator to withdraw combat forces from Iraq within 16 months of taking office.

    http://www.nysun.com/politics/obama-adviser-calls-troops-stay-iraq-through-2010

  33. Rasmussen – Obama 51-41 Clinton

    “The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with his largest lead ever in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now attracts 51% of the vote while Clinton earns 41% (see recent daily results). Obama leads 61% to 30% among Men including a thirteen-point advantage among White Men. Obama leads 84% to 12% among African-American voters while Clinton holds a seven-point edge among White voters. Among Democrats, Obama leads by four. He holds a much healthier lead among unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a Democratic Primary.”
    http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

  34. Finns, from yr link:

    ‘Both Mr. Kahl and a senior Obama campaign adviser reached yesterday said the paper does not represent the campaign’s Iraq position

    …“We have experts and scholars with a range of views and Barack appreciates this range of views. They are in think tanks and like me they write in their own voice, they are people who do their independent scholarship. Barack Obama cannot be held accountable for what we all write,” she said. Ms. Rice said she had not seen the paper, which is marked as a draft and “not for attribution without author’s permission.”

    Mr. Kahl yesterday said, “This has absolutely zero to do with the campaign.” He added, “There are elements that are consistent with the Democratic Party’s approach, and I will leave it to others to find out if there are elements that are not.”’

    What’s below the bottom of the barrel?

  35. GG @ 223 I was wondering whether it may have been a Freudian slip? 😉
    I partly agree with your comments about the media. Being a hard line Chomskyist, I think the MSM are a pathetic pack of propagandists. They were unduly lax on Obama initially to create a contest. Once they got a contest, they kept it going but when Obama was blowing Hillary away they tried to even things up. Now they realise that she has lost and they’re basically just tormenting her like a cat with a half-dead mouse.

    Dyno- I don’t think Penn has a conflict of interests as such. He is just espousing conflicting views. He is a public relations man after all and any opinion he has should be recognised as worthless.

  38. Dyno and TW, Can you now say with any certainty that what we are seeing is Obama’s natural hair? Is that sun tan real? Remember he claims to be half white.
    Which half?

    Does Obama do dirty religion phone calls when he thinks no one is around.

    Remember, if he lies about small things, he will lie about big things.

  40. Some movement on the superdelegate front – a Clinton backer Helen Langan moves from Clinton to the non-aligned list (dropping Clinton back to 245) while Obama picks up two new endorsements – one from Susan Montee and the other from Rod Caver taking his total to 218.

    Source: Democratic Convention Watch.

  41. Hillary was sacked from her job in the Watergate impeachment investigation. And what would that have been for? Let me guess. NO! It can’t be true…lying and unethical conduct. 😯

    “Because she was a liar,” Zeifman said in an interview last week. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”

    Watergate-Era Judiciary Chief of Staff: Hillary Clinton Fired For Lies, Unethical Behavior
    http://www.northstarwriters.com/dc163.htm

  42. Rush Limbaugh has jumped on the bandwagon on this latest scandal. Ot looks VERY bad for Billary.

    On April 2, Zeifman was asked in an interview with nationally syndicated radio host Neal Boortz, “You fired her [Clinton], didn’t you?” Zeifman responded, “Let me put it this way, I terminated her along with other staff members who we no longer needed. And I said that I could not recommend her for any further positions.”

    In a February 5 Accuracy in Media column, Zeifman expressed “regret that, when I terminated her employment on the Nixon impeachment staff, I had not reported her unethical practices to the appropriate bar associations.”

    http://mediamatters.org/items/200804040011?f=h_latest

  43. Good afternoon Bludgers, just took my darlin’ out for a long anniversary lunch. We talked and laughed and made plans about our future together. How sweet it was to love and be loved throughout all those wonderful years.

    Dio at 242, Hillary is to hype what Winston Smith was to the Ministry of Truth.

    Clinton said, “I started criticizing the war in Iraq before he did. So, I’m well aware that his entire campaign is premised on a speech he gave in 2002 and I give him credit for making that speech. But that was not a decision.”
    http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/04/05/politics/fromtheroad/entry3996192.shtml

    Thanks for the kind words at 205, Vote1Maxine.

  44. ec @ 244

    I think it is more apt to say that Hillary Clinton is to ethical conduct what Jack the Ripper was to abdominal surgery. 😈

  46. Dio, too late for a bet on Charlton Heston I’m afraid. Gone to the big shooting range in the sky.

    Gore Vidal had some amusing things to say about him, but maybe now is not the time! LOL

  48. Hmmm, “I don’t think anybody predicted 9/11” – So an 911 widow gets angry.

    9/11: Where Barack Obama and Condi Rice Sound Alarmingly Alike………… How could Obama have such a poor understanding of the 9/11 attacks and their subsequent impact on the US intelligence community? Has Obama even read the 9/11 Commission’s Final Report that (even in its whitewash form) calls Rice to task for her “misleading” statement about the predictability of 9/11-style attacks? Or sets forth recommendations for intelligence community reforms?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristen-breitweiser/911-where-barack-obama-an_b_94850.html

  49. Doesn’t it get boring going over the same ground GG? Once more, in any case – Obama was not on the ballot in MI. It is undemocratic for Hillary to be attempting to count these votes. Probably almost as undemocratic as claiming that pledged delegates are not in fact pledged. I’m not sure how these actions fit in with the democracy argument but anyway…

    Both will be seated. MI as a 50/50 split, Florida probably with a half value vote. Remembering that the FL vote was Hillary 49, Obama 33, Edwards 17, Id be pretty sure that Obama would hardly lose any ground at all once this is settled.

    Whether or not you want to see it, harping on about these votes is a Clinton tactic to draw out the nomination contest. Nothing more. She doesn’t want to accept defeat yet, and more power to her in a way. But she will not catch Obama, with or without these states, which is why she has not responded to his offer, after MI said there would be no further vote, to split the delegates (which seems acceptable to the State).

    With regards to the SD link you posted – Obama has picked up 10 to -2 in the last couple of weeks. This has included Richardson and Casey.

  50. Finns – that is an understandably emotional argument, but its reasoning is full of holes. If I may:

    In point 1, the author uses Lee Hamilton as an authority for security knowledge

    “Maybe Obama needs a tutorial from former Vice Chairman of the 9/11 Commission, Lee Hamilton”

    Than a sentence later gives us

    “Lee Hamilton is largely responsible for the 9/11 Commission’s Final Report being a total whitewash.”

    In point 2, she tells us that

    “I don’t think anybody could have predicted [9/11]”

    and goes on to note there was much intelligence that could have been utilized in being better prepared. She also assumes that Obama makes the same comment, when he responds to a direct hypothestical with “I don’t think anybody predicted 9/11”. Which is a fact. With regards to Rice’s response – yes, better intelligence work could have been done, and someone may have predicted 9/11. With regards to Obama’s – no one did in fact predict this singular event.

    In point three

    “One of the reasons I support Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama is because of the enormous help Senator Clinton gave to the 9/11 families who were fighting to create a 9/11 Commission.

    Fair enough. Overall, a pretty weak and manipulative argument though, if the above is what it is based on.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 5 of 23
1 … 4 5 6 … 23