Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.
Pennsylvania minus three weeks
Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.
GG @ 248
It would be unconstitutional to count Michigan.
Federal judge: Michigan’s presidential primary law unconstitutional
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080326/METRO/803260443/1361
And undemocratic to count Florida, where there was no campaigning, press interviews, debates etc… you know the whole democracy bit.
Although, her boss in the Justice Department would not be surprised by this. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”
I just LOVE that quote! 😀
from 251 – point 2 – she tells us that Condi Rice said…
“I don’t think anybody predicted 9/11″ is a true statement. Why do Clinton supporters have a problem with the truth? Just because their candidate has an egocentric disdain for the truth, they don’t need to follow blindly.
Pancho,
“Doesn’t it get boring going over the same ground GG?”
Doesn’t seem to stop the Hillary Haters here. I’m thinking pots and kettles and black.
The painful truth for the Obamaphilliacs is that the despite the audacity of hype that surrounds their favourite, their campaign has stalled.
“From early December through early March, 144 superdelegates declared for Obama, according to a tally maintained by the Associated Press. He has added 14 superdelegates since March 5, for a total of 221, compared with a gain of nine for Clinton, bringing her count to 251, according to the AP.
Clinton supporters say the slow pace of commitments is because of concerns, after Obama’s March 4 losses in Texas and Ohio, about whether he can win in November — doubts they have aggressively sought to stir in their private lobbying efforts.
“If you can’t win it in the primary, how are you going to win it in November? That’s our pitch,” said Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), a Clinton backer”.
All they have left is the anti Hillary mudslinging that pervades most of the alleged comment here and in the MSM.
Adding 50% more super delegates than Clinton in the same time period , while cutting her Pennsylvania lead down to 6 points from the double digit leads earlier is a stalled campaign?
If Clinton supporters are claiming this is a slow pace of commitments for Obama, aren’t they just highlighting how much slower the commitments for her are ?
“If you can’t win it in the primary, how are you going to win it in November? That’s our pitch,” said Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), a Clinton backer”.
Is he trying to attack Obi or Hillary?? great statement.
256 GG
Labelling criticism of a candidate as “mudslinging” without rebutting the criticisms doesn’t advance your argument. It’s just avoiding the issue.
Kevin,
It is the Obionekenobists that want the contest ended. Nothing has really changed since Ohio and Texas. It has all been a frenzy of inactivity.
Still two weeks plus to Pennsylvania.
Electoral Votes, total 538, To win: 270.
Apr. 05 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 265 McCain 262 Ties 11
Apr. 01 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 203 McCain 304 Ties 31
Mar. 30 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 239 McCain 268 Ties 31
Mar. 28/29 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 239 McCain 255 Ties 44
Mar. 26/27 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 246 McCain 248 Ties 44
Mar. 25 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 273 McCain 221 Ties 44
Mar. 24 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 268 McCain 246 Ties 24
Apr. 05 – Electoral Votes: Obama 261 McCain 268 Ties 9
Apr. 01 – Electoral Votes: Obama 205 McCain 324 Ties 9
Mar. 31 – Electoral Votes: Obama 205 McCain 324 Ties 9
Mar. 30 – Electoral Votes: Obama 215 McCain 314 Ties 9
Mar. 28/29 – Electoral Votes: Obama 228 McCain 301 Ties 9
Mar. 26/27 – Electoral Votes: Obama 228 McCain 301 Ties 9
Mar. 25 – Electoral Votes: Obama 218 McCain 296 Ties 24
Mar. 24 – Electoral Votes: Obama 231 McCain 292 Ties 15
From the Votemaster – http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Diogenes,
Is that a prick being consciensed I hear.
KR at 247: “Dio, too late for a bet on Charlton Heston I’m afraid. Gone to the big shooting range in the sky.”
And didn’t Chucky get a bang out of life?
But never from Stephen Boyd, the Russell Crowe look-alike who played Messala in Ben-Hur.
Apparently the NRA (National Rifle Association), the humanitarian organization for whom Chucky was president from 1998-2003, and who are lobbying fiercely to have the right of citizens to bear high-powered automatic weaponry re-introduced in Washinton D.C. so that peaceable folk can defend themselves from the abstract noun terrorism in their own homes, are going to send Chucky off with a ten thousand and twenty-one gun salute after Michael Moore delivers the eulogy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben-Hur_(1959_film)
For those who simply must know, scroll down to “Possible…subtext”.
Vidal’s novels are a tad ponderous but his essays and wit are “world’s best practice”.
GG @ 262 Very droll.
Johnny Bomb-Bomb Rides Again:
http://www.dailykos.com/
scroll down to Sam Loomis piccy.
Having glommed the pic, my header to some might seem illogical but isn’t.
The first time he tried this on, Johnny chickened out, jumped off, yanked his parachute chord and wound up as a special guest of the Hanoi Hilton.
The gung-ho old warmonger is locked and loaded to give it another go over I-ran.
Stanley sure made some great films. Freakin’ maestro!
GG #256 “The painful truth for the Obamaphilliacs is that the despite the audacity of hype that surrounds their favourite, their campaign has stalled.
‘From early December through early March, 144 superdelegates declared for Obama, according to a tally maintained by the Associated Press. He has added 14 superdelegates since March 5, for a total of 221, compared with a gai puben of nine for Clinton, bringing her count to 251, according to the AP.’ ”
So let me get this clear: He is leading in pledged delegates and this can’t be reversed by Denver. He is leading in the popular vote and this could only be reversed if Clinton wins Pennsylvania by about 20% whereas it’s now looking like she will either win or lose it by the length of a Brazilian bee’s pube. But despite previously winning virtually 100% of the SDs since super Tuesday he has won only 60% of same since March 5. Therefore he will not win the 31% of the SDs he will probably need to win 2025 in Denver.
Yes. his campaign has “stalled”.
It takes a village (of spinners) to raise this story from the dead:
Ohio Hospital Contests a Story Clinton Tells
By DEBORAH SONTAG
Over the last five weeks, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has featured in her campaign stump speeches the story of a health care horror: an uninsured pregnant woman who lost her baby and died herself after being denied care by an Ohio hospital because she could not come up with a $100 fee.
The woman, Trina Bachtel, did die last August, two weeks after her baby boy was stillborn at O’Bleness Memorial Hospital in Athens, Ohio. But hospital administrators said Friday that Ms. Bachtel was under the care of an obstetrics practice affiliated with the hospital, that she was never refused treatment and that she was, in fact, insured.
“We implore the Clinton campaign to immediately desist from repeating this story,” said Rick Castrop, chief executive officer of the O’Bleness Health System.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/5/111812/9868/558/490671
According to the MSM Obama sucks at the ten-pin bowling thing, however, as relieved in the following U-Tube video – he may has skills in basketball. GG and Finns – do you think we should attribute this to his dark side or was he just plain lucky?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daH0ltD20A0
Mornin’, All.
Sun. April 6: Santa and the Tooth Fairy are gonna sue over this !
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/doonesbury;_ylt=AgYiS8MQgh7CEpLbkcSJqOdL6ysC
Sun April 6: Fed Grunter’s Never Ending Tour D’America.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/ettahulme;_ylt=AqQf0GBin.Ztngwb78Y8IaBS_b4F
Sun.April 6: Danae has been approached to become a flack on HRC’s campaign.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=ArYOoODDsOOHW7l5eiJ6KbLd.sgF
Good Morning PBs
Obama, man of the future.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/kishore-mahbubani/2008/04/06/1207420197410.html
Penn gets a slap:
“Maggie Williams has released the following statement from the Clinton camp:
After the events of the last few days, Mark Penn has asked to give up his role as Chief Strategist of the Clinton Campaign; Mark, and Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, Inc. will continue to provide polling and advice to the campaign.
Geoff Garin and Howard Wolfson will coordinate the campaign’s strategic message team going forward.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/06/mark-penn-resigns-from-cl_n_95323.html
#235
Pancho
273 js
That’s great news. Condie would hitch the McCain wagon to Bush irretrievably, and she’s as thick as a brick. Break out the champers if Macca is dumb enough to go with her. Currently Romney is the favourite who would actually be a pain in the neck for the Dems IMHO. He could keep the neocons on Macca’s side and mobilise their voters although the fundies still would be out in the cold. 🙂
This is a great article which should remind us how much we owe William for running this blog. 🙂 Running a blog is compared to working in a sweatshop!! Except the pay is worse.
In Web World of 24/7 Stress, Writers Blog Till They Drop
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/technology/06sweat.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
js – funny stuff. If McCain chooses Condi, the election will just be a referendum on the war. Bring it on.
Also, add on SDs being announced all the time. Two more for Obama over the past couple of days, bringing Hillary’s lead down to 25 according to: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
More “superdelegate momentum” for Obama (numbers from http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/ )
Obama leads in Governors, Senators, and Add-ons
Clinton leads in Reps, DPLs and DNC (but her DNC lead is shrinking rapidly)
Superdelegates by Position (w/o Michigan and Florida)
Position Clinton Obama None
Gov. 10 13 8
Sen. 13 17 18
Rep. 73 71 77
DPL 10 3 6
DNC 138 110 150
Add-Ons 1 6 69
Total 245 220 328
Last Updated: 4/6/2008
Why would McCain take Condi on as his VP? About the only thing the woman has done in the last 4 years is gallivanting around the globe to appear at the top of aircraft steps waving hello followed a day or two later by her on the same steps waving goodbye. I’m don’t know what they do with her between appearances – certainly there’s been precious little to show for it – but I hope they take the batteries out to save power.
MayoFeral –
she plays piano too.
Oh yes, and organises deadly invasions of sovereign countries leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocents.)
#275
Diogenes wrote:
Yes and no.
Something that the article fails to address is the subject of scalability and management. The vast majority of blogs are run as ‘sole proprietor’ operations – and that is very much the case here at the pollbludger. This ‘sole proprietor’ model is simply not scalable and we can see evidence of this here over the last couple of months in that the scope of the topics has extended from domestic traffic to the US primaries. With this expansion the level of attention to comment mediation has dropped dramatically resulting in the questionable banning of a number of regular participants. But a layer above this are two competing functions – on one hand you have the ‘blog entry value proposition’ and on the other hand you have ‘the community’. In the case of the US Presidential Primaries theme – the blog entries are not the driving force – instead the driving force in the community – GG, Jen, KR, Diogenes, RB, EC, etc., etc. oh, and the Finns, and Ron, and everyone else who is not immediately springing to my mind just at this very moment.
The solution is plain old simple management. First of there is no reason why pollbludger could not be administered my multiple contributors. This in and of itself would have resolved many of the prior issues (ESJ, davidoff, etc.) simply because people following threads would have been aware of the context and would have dealt with things at much earlier stages. Secondly, granting editorial rights to people like KR or GG would generate an environment wherein the value of the blog entry would increase – and the tone and focus of things would be more distributed – but this is where things change from the individual to the management of a community.
If William drops dead from a heart attack tomorrow – one hypothesis would be that he failed to address the questions of scalability. William – feel free to throw me under the bus if you disagree.
277
newy stats Says:
And another one since then …
From the New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/us/politics/07caucus.html?_r=1&oref=slogin\
Obama: 221
Clinton: 245
Difference: 24 advantage Clinton (and dropping)
JS and NS, see my 256.
Since Texas and Ohio the change has been about 5 delegated. I only hope the momentum towards Global Warming was this slow. At this rate, Obama will possibly achieve a majority by Christmas 2010.
Nothing new, the campaign is stalled until Pennsylavania and the other Primaries in a couple of weeks.
#282
Greensborough Growler wrote:
On this – we agree.
Penn falls on his sword, (proving the sword is mightier than the Penn?):
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/us/politics/07hillary.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
…another ruction in Camp Clinton.
#256
Greeensborough Growler Says:
April 6th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
GG – don’t worry – we have solutions.
http://www.getoverobama.com
Results of Senate elections in Zimbabwe announced. Zanu PF 30, MDC (Tsvangirai) 24 and MDC (Mutambara) 6. The spilt in MDC cost Opposition 4 seats with first past post voting.
There are 33 other Senators – 5 Senators appointed by the President; 10 Provincial Governors and 18 chiefs – 16 elected by fellow chiefs, plus the President and Deputy President of the Council of Chiefs ex officio.
So sorting out the Presidency is now the major task. What will be the next tricks employed by incumbent Mugabe.
If this campaign has hit the ‘horse latitudes’ as James Carville once called them, then it looks like Hillary has just turfed (pun!) her biggest nag overboard:
…we are locked in a campaign that is difficult for Clinton to win and near impossible for anyone to end. Small wonder there is a feeling that, with the Pennsylvania balloting still more than two weeks away, the Democratic race is in suspended animation. During a similar static period during Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, I recall James Carville showing up in the bar at the Capital Hotel in Little Rock late one night quizzing every reporter in sight about the “horse latitudes.” Carville was not prepping for a correspondence-school exam in meteorology, but trying out a metaphor (and a good one at that) for a campaign that had become becalmed like the clipper ships of old, where the only alternative was to throw the horses overboard to reduce weight and pick up some wind.
This time around, it is Hillary Clinton desperately praying for the political winds to propel her out of the doldrums. But barring a Clinton string of victories through West Virginia on May 13, the weather reports are all Obama.
Salon.com
285 junior senator-
you should have warned me that George C. was on there – now I’m doubly enthralled , nay, in fact I’m about to pass ou………
Jen:
Forget about George (except for that excellent piece in ‘O Brother, Where Art Thou?’)- the real question is Jenny Depp – is he Clinton or is he Obama?
s/Jenny/Johnny
What do you mean ‘forget george”?!!!!
As for Johnny , I am going to assume that all the drop dead-gorgeous stars are going with Obama, as he is the newest fashion accessory available.
Jen:
Think of is this way – for the average alfa male entity – George is OK – he has weaknesses – he is human whereas Jonny Depp just makes life really difficult!
Clinton dumps the Penn from Pennsylvania (and beyond) and you guys start a fan blog for some Hollywood actors?
Am I in the right place, or what? LOL
JS, I don’t think it would be a bad idea to hand over comment moderation of the US threads to somebody else. However, I’m not sure how or to whom: all the participants I can think of are highly partisan in one way or another, so giving various people mutual powers of enforcement over each other would merely take the problem to a different dimension. I still think my own benevolent dictatorship is the least bad of the available options, even taking into account that my eye isn’t always on the ball.
Sorry Kirri – slow news week, Penn’s dumping and all. Till Hillary steps a side nothing much is going to happen IMHO, as no matter how well she does in Pennsylvania she is not going to outperform Obama – besides she is so covered in mud now that she is unelectable.
William – I think oyu do a great job with this disparate and unruly group that we are. I suspect handing it over to any/all of us would lead to gang warfare on PB.
Js – Johnny is indeed a problem for you mere mortal males, however no one does a hairnet like George.
You Clinton fans will be pleased to know that even the most ardent Obama admirer such as me can be appalled at this
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/obamas_gun_dance.html.
the madness of America encapsulated.
The best way to handle this board is to warn and ban trolls.
I do not feel that the banning of Davidoff was warranted, compared to some of the previous behaviour of other known trolls. Many times the trolls provoke crossfire by posting numerous personal insults instead of reasoned argument.
It doesn’t take much browsing through these last few threads to see who the trolls are. Unfortunately, there are thousands of posts and good luck to anyone who has the patience to wade through it all.
There are certain posters who contribute absolutely nothing to threads here bar personal insults and it certainly amazes me the amount of latitude they receive compared to Davidoff. Consistency should be the key in determining punishments.
Whilst I believe in freedom of speech and am more then happy to get into a flamewar with those that have little other purpose to their lives, it really detracts from the overall quality of analysis on these threads.
I believe certain double standards exist here which happens in real life such as the ABC board. Whilst its good to have a range of opinions, there is a difference between a logical reasoned opinion and a mere rant. It doesn’t take much to see which is which. Nevertheless, this is William’s board and he does a good job to ensure that order is somewhat maintained without being overly restrictive. 🙂
asanque-
the odd rant is good for the health. Lots of the stuff on here is off the point and often quite silly (guilty) but for the most part it is entertaining. There are occasions where posters get out of line I agree, but generally someone tells them to pull their head in.
I dont know much about running sites such as this but it seems a fairly onerous task given it runs day and night every day. I also guess there is a certain amount of behind the scenes action where posts are banned and we never see them and perhaps email complaints to William which we dont see.
I doubt that such a group of strong opinion people would readily accept regulation by others who they are strongly disagreeing with. Equally the current situation tends to encourage a level of “irresponsibility” from participants in that people can push the limits and rely on William to set the rules. But William, what happens when you want a holiday or just need a break. There does need to be a backup system of editorial people.
Also a legal issue of reponsibility – effectively we would need to have a responsible collective who would answer for any issues with regulation, defamation etc.
William – you might provide look at providing a checklist on the website for people as to what is unacceptable behaviour and how to avoid your intervention. (labelling of others as “trolls” is hardly an objective business from my reading). Also perhaps some info on costs and how people can help make site ongoing viable?
298 – Jen
Whilst I like a good rant just as much as anyone else. There is a difference between a rant and stalkerish abusive behaviour. I only need to point out ESJ and his obsession with your photo.
Obama’s Achilles’ heel, From Time:
“Patriotism is, sadly, a crucial challenge for Obama now. His aides believe that the Wright controversy was more about anti-Americanism than it was about race. Michelle Obama’s unfortunate comment that the success of the campaign had made her proud of America “for the first time” in her adult life and the Senator’s own decision to stow his American-flag lapel pin — plus his Islamic-sounding name — have fed a scurrilous undercurrent of doubt about whether he is “American” enough”.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1727502,00.html
Obama May Not Have Fully Contained
Damage From Ex-Pastor, By NICK TIMIRAOS
April 7, 2008; Page A4
Sen. Barack Obama’s Philadelphia speech on race relations last month seemed to put the controversial remarks of his former pastor behind him. But three weeks later, there is evidence of lingering damage. “It has not been defused,” says David Parker, a North Carolina Democratic Party official and unpledged superdelegate. He says his worries about Republicans questioning Sen. Obama’s patriotism prompted him to raise the issue of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.’s remarks in conversations with both the Obama and Clinton campaigns.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120752539182393613.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
#296 – they shoot horses, dont they? in Chicago.