Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.
Pennsylvania minus three weeks
Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.
Finns
give me Obama’s problems over Billary’s and Bomb Bomb’s any day.
Mark Penn gets jettisoned at a crucial phase of Hillary’s losing campaign and Finn wants to flog a dead horse like Wright!
That is hysterically funny!
Mark Penn was a liability for Hillary in any case.
He’s glad that he still is in charge of polling and gets paid, but gets the added bonus of disclaiming all responsibility once Hillary loses.
Remember, Mark Penn was in charge of the wildly successful, small states and caucuses don’t matter strategy.
Greetings PBers. Having been away from the screen for a few days, I skimmed the intervening posts – which gave a sense the tidal flow. I have to say, the Hillary supporters are more and more like the Black Knight from the ‘Holy Grail’. After every new blow – be it another bad Pennsylvania poll (all of the recent ones), another Clinton campaign resignation (M Penn), or another Hilary lie exposed (the hospital tragedy), the responses are along the lines of: “’tis but a scratch”; “just a fleshwound”; or “c’mon then, I’ll bite your legs off” and similar samples of contrived hope for a lost cause.
Never mind, you Black Knights of the Blog, there’ll be plenty of room for you on the Obama bandwagon when Hillary drops out.
As to the “Great Southern Concession Date Challenge”, these are the current entries as best I can tell. Correct me if I’m wrong:
Valid Entries (all Hillary to concede):
JV : 23 April @ 1000
Jen: 24 April @ 1000
Dyno: 24 April @ 1400
EC: 25 April @ 0900
HarryH: 7 May @ 1200
Pancho: 8 May @ 1200
Ferny: 3 June @ 2145
Asanque: 10 June @ 1400.
Prize Bottles so far 6 in total, from the very generous: Jen, Ferny, EC, JV, Dyno, Diogenes*
*By the way Diogenes, if FernyG doesn’t take all of those superfluous, space-taking bottles ….
It’s amazing how the so called intelligent people can miss the point completely. Obama’s Patriotism is being questioned. Who’s talking about Rev. Wright.
Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel – Samuel Johnson
306 – And what’s your answer to that question Finns?
We’re going to miss you arseanque the troll.
Oh look here’s the Green Grinch again with his always worthwhile contributions to this blog.
Look just how much he contributes with his incisive wit and commentary.
Its often been heard that the Green Grinch practises his zen art of commentary with Miss Teen USA of South Carolina, but has so far failed to win a single debate.
Miss South Carolina quotes “he is like creepy”
GG, I’ve asked you a number of times not to make comments that amount to nothing more than abuse directed at other commeters.
Finns – Johnson’s observation put another way:
“Many a bum show has been saved by the flag.”
~ George M. Cohan
As we observed here in Aus with the Tampa election.
In the US, though, perhaps this is more appropriate:
“God and Country are an unbeatable team; they break all records for oppression and bloodshed.”
~ Louis Buñuel
William here is a prime example of when you fail your duty to crack down on stalkers and trolls.
If you don’t set an example and punish the Green Grinch for his consistent and flagrant moronic posts, you condone this misbehaviour and its constantly repeated.
Is this the type of blog you are aiming for?
Questioning his ‘patriotism’? First it was his colour…black enough? Then it was his religion…is he Muslim? Then it was his pastor…is he too agro? And now it’s his ‘patriotism’?
Oh, Finn, spare me!
Better question his bowling score for all the relevence it has! LOL
KR,
It comes back to your magic word “character”. This issue will not be wished away.
Please don’t lecture me about my “duty”, Asanque – the meaning of which I don’t think you understand terribly well.
316 – William
You don’t have to do anything, its your blog.
However, in the last 3-4 threads you will find multiple examples (at least 5) of the Green Grinch attacking other posters not including myself without any provocation.
You will also find posts from other blog users sick of the nonsense he spouts and saying they will not post again.
I question your judgment in allowing a post like 173 to remain which is offensive in any respects.
I also question your judgment in banning Davidoff.
However, as I said it is your blog.
I am happy to also stop posting here if you feel it appropriate to allow users to attack other users constantly without repercussions.
We all bear the consequences for our own actions, and you can either take in constructive input or not.
Your call.
gee, these Obamaphiles are a sensitive lot.
Finns
Isn’t the Grand old USA the “Land of Hope & Glory”?
Aren’t Obama’s catchphrases “The Audacity of Hope” and “Yes We Can”?
Doesn’t sound unAmerican to me.
He has a small racism problem to overcome(which the Wright issue plays to) but this is mainly in GOP voters anyway. Obama more than makes up for this with his positives…as the turnouts and new registrations suggest.
He has far less negatives and far more positives to carry into this election than Billary and Bomb Bomb.
The reason I haven’t deleted 173 is that I don’t think there’s much point. Blog comments have a very short shelf life: everyone who was ever going to be offended by the comment already has been, and deleting it won’t change that. I do agree that it should have been deleted (or better yet, not posted) in the first instance. In the same circumstances, I never deleted the comment by Davidoff that indirectly led to him being banned. He was actually banned for wilfully refusing to do what I asked of him, which I will always do every time it happens.
HarryH,
More the “Audacity of Hype”.
“Yes we can” is the catch cry of kindergarten aged children in response to the Bob the Builder song. Hardly a catchphrase for the political savvy.
Obama has brought race to the forefront. And racism is not restricted to Republicans I can assure you.
Obama’s drug use has not begun to to play out. Trite nicknames for other candidates is no substitute for reasoned debate.
320 – William
Great. So by agreeing that it ‘should’ have been deleted and not deleting it, you set the strongest possible message that this type of behaviour is not acceptable.
I’ve enjoyed my time posting here William and I appreciate your efforts in maintaining this blog. I’ve been posting here since Mid-2007 and have made a donation in the past.
As a final gesture of goodwill, I hereby dedicate any wine prize (from jv and others) won due to my prediction of Hillary conceding in June to William Bowe.
However, obviously its time to move.
Goodbye folks, its been great blogging with you, and there have been too many good posters to name. I’m sure I’ll see you on other forums in the future.
You know what is the only real tedious and shitty thing about running a high traffic blog (well, apart from lawyers)?
Dealing with people that “demand” some comment be removed, or “demand” that some commenter be banned.
Billbowe goes to extraordinary lengths to run this place well, he puts enormous amounts of time into it and deserves far better than to have people whinging at him to do this and do that from arsehole to breakfast time. Be thankful that you have the place at all!
This is politics folks, passions are strong, heads are harder and often brains get quite soft upon occasion – If the thread doesnt go the way you like it and some evil jellybean is picking on you – well tough luck, suck it up and move on. Have some one humping your leg – welcome to political discussion everywhere.
Be nice – it’s efficient. When you slap, do it with a smile.
But dont poke the Billbowe with a tedious stick… it can bite.
Deleting the comment would send no message at all, because nobody would notice.
Thank you for coming, and all the best for your future endeavours.
Solidarity, Reg …
Sorry if you’re ‘going finish’ Asanque – if you don’t have a change of heart, thanks for your posts, and good punting.
Asanque
just keep posting your thoughts on politics. They’re good.
every persons posts on here are a reflection of them and no-one else. William will handle the rest.
just don’t fall for the baiting tactics of a persistent old attention seeker.
it’s quite easy.
I see Asanque has put his cue in the rack. So long and best wishes. A song that perhaps epitomises our relationship.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPDNGtr1ar8
how does the saying go? if you cant stand the heat, then get out of the blog. what a cry baby.
Pancho at 276: “js – funny stuff. If McCain chooses Condi, the election will just be a referendum on the war. Bring it on.”
Spot on , Pancho. Condi is a total PNAC, Project for a New American Century facilitator, the lovely folk who turned the “opportunity” of 9/11 into the bs war on terrorism, and for the glory of Moloch and Mammon through war profits and spigot access, pushed and spun the invasion and occupation of Iraq.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century
These are not nice people. The rogues gallery with mugshots is worth a quick squiz. (scroll down ornithorhynkus-paradoxus page)
http://www.platypuspool.com/axisofevil.html
Many of these schmucks were on hand to hear Howard’s address in Washington a few weeks back.
WB at 294: “I still think my own benevolent dictatorship is the least bad of the available options, even taking into account that my eye isn’t always on the ball.”
?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=4DAA13B573E1BD2FF802CC1DDA9073D0A55A1E4F32AD3138
Yup, but we love it when you have your occasional after hours little absences, William. There’s been some wonderful discussions on History, Literature, film and life matters that could be at best described as “tangential” to the topic of Sep. politics, yet amazingly, when you crack the whip most of us instinctively know what will happen should we transgress further.
EC @ 330,
No purring yet, but a definate smile.
Cheers
This one is out of the blue (or darkness?) from the Jakarta Post:
Islam ‘recognizes homosexuality’
Homosexuals and homosexuality are natural and created by God, thus permissible within Islam, a discussion concluded here Thursday.
Moderate Muslim scholars said there were no reasons to reject homosexuals under Islam, and that the condemnation of homosexuals and homosexuality by mainstream ulema and many other Muslims was based on narrow-minded interpretations of Islamic teachings.
Siti Musdah Mulia of the Indonesia Conference of Religions and Peace cited the Koran’s al-Hujurat (49:3) that one of the blessings for human beings was that all men and women are equal, regardless of ethnicity, wealth, social positions or even sexual orientation.
“There is no difference between lesbians and nonlesbians. In the eyes of God, people are valued based on their piety,” she told the discussion organized by nongovernmental organization Arus Pelangi.
“And talking about piety is God’s prerogative to judge,” she added.
“The essence of the religion (Islam) is to humanize humans, respect and dignify them.”
http://old.thejakartapost.com/detailheadlines.asp?fileid=20080328.@02&irec=1
But what happens, Grasshopper, when the pointy bits of a “Classic Pincer Narrowing” actually touch each other?
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/04/06/arg_poll_deadlocked_in_pennsylvania.html
This is getting particularly ugly for the candidate who once cavorted topside a 28% spread!
————–
Jolly decent of you at 331, GG.
There was a time when anything George W Bush said about the Middle East, and his grand plan to install democracy there was dutifully reported. Remember his “democracy from Baghdad to Palestine”?
Well, it looks like he got it right, except in reverse: Baghdad now resembles Gaza.
Sadr City has been cordoned off, as they lob missiles into the Green Zone killing the odd person there, and then the US bombs the crap out of them.
And all the while John McCain is talking about ‘victory’ in Iraq, like he’s got any idea what it even means, but he’s going to have a long time to explain how this remotely resembles it.
Enemy Combatant, those links are all very amusing. However, here is a reality check:
1. Whatever you might think of his policies, McCain is no idiot. Only an idiot would ask Condaleeza Rice to join them on the ticket in tis political climate. Contrary to what the liberal-leaning US mainstream media would have you believe that McCain has just about no good options, there are least half a dozen excellent options and another half a dozen decent ones after that;
2. It has to be said that McCain is, from the point of view of the Democrats, polling disturbingly well in places like Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, among others. Furthermore, I’m talking about the respectable polls by orgs like Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Insider Advantage, not the crappy polls analogous to those that appear in the Aussie tabloids;
3. I know its dangerous to place too much weight upon polls this early out, however the polls this early out in 2004 proved to be a remarkably good guide to what happened on the first Tuesday in November (in the US that is, not in Melbourne);
4. Do you totally dismiss those polls that suggest thousands of Clinton supporters will stay home if Obama gets the nomination and vice versa? I certainly wouldn’t;
5. What sort of war chest do you think the Republicans are building at the moment while Hillary and Barrack go 15 rounds? (I ask the question rhetorically).
Seems to me that once again the Democrats are well on track to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Then again, they are experts at it – just once since World War II have they exceeded 50% of the popular vote. Conversely (and I may have to stand corrected), I reckon there are only three times since WW2 when the GOP has polled less than about 48%, and for 2 of those three you have to factor-in a little fellow called H. Ross Perot
At this stage, 7 months out from polling day, it would seem the possibilities range from Democrats by the narrowest of margins to a solid victory falling something short of landslide.
I look forward to being amused by the shock everyone expresses around the world when low and behold the Republicans retain the White House yet again. Pity for the United States though
What I meant in penultimate para of last post was solid victory for McCain
Chris from Edgecliffe,
I have ben waiting for your arrival.
Welcome to the cauldron.
336 Chris
I think the odds at the moment of Obama at evens and Macca about 11/8 are about right. The huge turnout at the Dem primaries is very encouraging but the longer it takes Obama to haul in the nomination, the closer the odds will get. I don’t think Hillary will give up until shortly before the convention, by which time it will be line ball. If she were to chuck it in after Pennsylvania with the promise of Senate Majority leader or New York Governor, and go into bat for Obama the current odds would be pretty close.
301 Finns
I thought “patriotism” would be a problem for Obama but this poll shows that he is considered the MOST likely to share American values. Here are the other main findings.
*Fifty-three percent of voters think John McCain’s policies would favor the rich. Thirteen percent say the same about Barack Obama.
*Eleven percent of voters are very confident that John McCain will make correct decisions about the economy. Forty-two percent are not confident. He’s the worst-rated of the three remaining candidates in this regard.
*Sixty-nine percent of voters (Democrats and Republicans) expect Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination.
*Fifty-six percent of Democratic-primary voters think Obama is better able to beat McCain in November. Thirty-two percent think Clinton is.
http://www.slate.com/id/2175496/
Chris – all interesting points, but most could do with a challenge.
Reports are that Condi is actively canvassing. You say that only an idiot would accept Condi, but surely this is only because of her foreign policy positions. McCain is more gung-ho than Bush (and by extension Condi) so I don’t think it all that far-fetched that he would consider her.
With regards to his frontrunning options Charlie Christ and Romney each have their problems with the Republican base. Most others would need months of introduction. I don’t think his options look all that flash.
Yes McCain is polling well, but he has no opposite, the Democrats are not advertising against him yet, and he is not being challenged on his gaffes. Further the press is almost wholely focussed on the Dems race, and there is the issue of bad feeling in the Dems camp at the moment which will inflate a McCain vote against either challenger.
In 2004 there was a sitting President who was campaigning against a party in flux with all the advantages of the Office. This time around, the Democrats are on the advance and hold both Houses. They have better organisations, and McCain does not wish to use the trappings surrounding this particular President for obvious reasons. I think the situation is wholely different to 2004.
No one could totally dismiss these polls, but remember every time there is a divisive nomination process we see similar. There were times in 2000 where over 50% of McCain voters said they could not vote for Bush. When the press tightened its focus on a partisan race, they flocked back. The Democrats will probably do the same when they focus on McCain.
While the DNC is not raising much money at the moment, Obama has revolutionised fundraising. He has raked in something in the order of $150 million this year alone. Clinton has also dragged in a pile. This is not money that will disappear – if need be it will go back to the donors with a request to pass it on to a third party. In addition to this the RNC is in dire financial states, and McCain has not managed to sign up a whole lot of Bush donors as yet. The Dems have a great advantage at the moment with regards to cash.
I think all of your points are fair, but there are also reasons why the Dems, even without a nominee and with a fighting going on, are still the short priced favourites for November.
#339, Amigo, i seem to remember that there is a saying that goes like this: “Maturity is when you feel you are right but you dont have the compulsion or feel the necessity to prove someone else is wrong”.
Finns, I’m sure in your mind that aint a non-sequiter. Good on you! I applaud creative thinking. But for the record (and I know it must be getting tiring to admit with ammo running so low) politics is a battle of interpretation and ideas. I got no proof here, just opinion. And again for the record, I’m happy to share, and receive response 🙂 .
On the immaturity front, I am looking forward to that jig.
Edgecliff Chris,
1/ “McCain is no idiot.”
Especially when Joey “The Rat” Lieberman is there to whisper tactical mis-spoke modifications in his ear.
2/ “not the crappy polls analogous to those that appear in the Aussie tabloids”
No reason to get excited, Chris, Citizen Rupert has deigned that Shill Shanahan is always on hand to provide “The Correct Broadsheet Interpretation” of any toshy tabloid polls.
3/ “I know its dangerous to place too much weight upon polls this early out,” (it’s, pull-ease)
Chris, Confucius said that amateur psephologists who placed “too much weight” upon “early polls” were treading on thin ice and soon for serious chilling.
4/ “Do you totally dismiss those polls that suggest thousands of Clinton supporters will stay home if Obama gets the nomination and vice versa? I certainly wouldn’t;”
Vice versa does not apply here, Chris. Are you not aware of Ecky’s Law? The Annals of Pseohology are rife with his wisdom. Ecky’s Law states: “Whomsoever of Brutusina’s followers do a dummy-spit homestay on Nov. 4 will be countered numerically by previously non-voting eligibles who buy Obi’s audacity of hope pitch.”
5/ “What sort of war chest do you think the Republicans are building at the moment while Hillary and Barrack go 15 rounds? (I ask the question rhetorically).”
Chris, (may I reply to your rhetoric bustfully?)”……….. looks like a double D-cup to me. And, mate, it’s “lo and behold”. Have you ever considered attending a refresher course at St. Apostrophe’s Acadamy for the punctuationally challenged?
Dead set, you’re a walk up start.
Oh, good grief, been pre-fisked by Pancho. Beautifully done, son.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisking
And isn’t it lovely that Growler has now got somebody to pal around with.
Latest Board-Odds from Cbet.
President – WINNER
The Kid (firmed 5c overnight) 1.85
Johnny Bomb-Bomb (steady) 2.85
Brutusina (drifted 50c overnight) 5.00
But best of all, Chris, if you slightly modify you handle to Edgecliff Chris, there will be two ECs on this blog:)
I’ve been banging on for a while about Rumsfeld et al being indicted for warcrimes under the principle of “command responsibility” for the torture interrogations. My prayers may be answered. 😀
Andrew Sullivan: Bush Administration Officials Will Be ‘Indicted For War Crimes’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/06/andrew-sullivan-bush-admi_n_95305.html
Using the RCP poll list for the the Obama/Clinton Penn contest:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
What I found interesting was the change in the spread over time.
Here’s what the spread looks like (with Clinton positive and Obama negative) as a simple time series where all polls make up the actual line.
But this is what they look like when the series is spread into its individual pollsters, where the “obs” at the bottom stands for ‘observations’ and is just the number of the poll in that RCP list, with the latest poll being the 41st observation.
It shows a clear movement for all pollsters toward Obama over the last little bit, and is the only time in Penn that those polls cover which so a unanimous movement toward Obama.
This one looks like it will be tougher for Clinton than she ever imagined a place like Penn would be.
oops – “which saw a unanimous movement toward Obama”.
Typical, I buy a vowel, get the wrong one and end up short changed of a consonant to boot.
CFE,
Great post. Got the munchins running everywhere.
Who do you think will win the Democrat nominaton?
Who is the most likely to win the POTUS?
#341 – Amigo – [I am looking forward to that jig] – i also seem to remember in our uni days, there was another saying that “why wait until November, fail now and avoid the rush”.
A couple more salient quotations suggesting that the concept of patriotism in elections has had a run before. It is clearly going to get a run in this election too. They’ll try to wedge Obama on it (just like JWH & Co wedged Beazley and Latham, and tried vainly to wedge Rudd, on Iraq, terrorism, and the war on boat people).
Over to Hermann Goering, President of the Reichstag, Nazi Party, and Luftwaffe Commander in Chief:
“Naturally the common people don’t want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”
“When a dog barks at the moon, then it is religion; but when he barks at strangers, it is patriotism!”
– David Starr Jordan
The dogs will keep barking at Obama on both issues, but I don’t think the current US dogs have teeth sharp enough to hurt him:
Off topic, but you might be amused, as I was on the weekend, by the Byron Shire Echo’s front page for April 1 – a parody of The Australian. Mungo MacCallum does a regular column in the Echo, a fiercely independent paper, and I wondered if he might have had something to do with that front page.
http://www.echo.net.au/pg.php?pg=01&issues_id=22_42&view=gif
Albrechtson and Shanahan are obviously in trouble!
Diogenes @ 343 [I’ve been banging on for a while about Rumsfeld et al being indicted for warcrimes]
I hope so. – I read an article in the New Yorker on the weekend about Sabrina Harman, who took a lot of the pictures at Abu Ghraib. It is a most unsettling article/interview. At this link is the article and there is a link from there to the pictures and video of some of the interview as well. Breathtaking that not one senior officer was ever punished for what the army knew was murder as well as torture, or torture gone wrong, at the prison, including some by the CIA, let alone the grotesque photography.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/03/24/080324fa_fact_gourevitch
jv @ 349
I note that Errol Morris co-wrote the article. He is the best doco maker I have seen. A string of masterpieces from Fog of War to Thin Blue Line to Gates of Heaven. No-one captures pathos the way he does. And the Philip Glass soundtracks add a poignant inevitability to the films.
Diogenes @ 343 – While it sounds promising the reality is there are few countries that would risk the wrath of the U.S. by arresting any of the Bushites for war crimes and those that wouldn’t be intimidated are unlikely to act given their own appalling records.
The odds on Howard et al facing justice are better, though still very slim. I know of one legal group actively pursuing this.