Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

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  1. Diogenes – The NY article is excerpts from this book:
    ‘”Standard Operating Procedure”, a book written by Philip Gourevitch and Errol Morris to be published by Penguin Press on May 15, 2008.’

    I like Philip Glass – I have the soundtracks for The Hours and Koyaanisqatsi in the car. The latter is rather unusual, but its atmospherics work well in the car.

  3. jv @ 348 – the Byron Shire Echo – aka North Coast Australian has a weekly circulation of 22,700? Heck, that would have to be more than the other Australian, wouldn’t it?! Maybe it’s they who should be taking over News Ltd! 😉

  4. Two years ago or so, Glenn Greenwald euthanased his original blogspot to take up an offer to write a regular gig for Salon. In 2006 his book “How Would A Patriot Act” went from nowheres-ville to No. 1 on Amazon in a matter of days from release, solely on the strength of “word of mouth” on the blogosphere. This feat was akin to leaping publishing/marketing Everest in a single bound.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Greenwald
    Great to see him getting a guernsey on HuffPo to publicize his latest book.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/glenn-greenwald/great-american-hypocrites_b_95317.html
    Grenwald is one of the political blogospheres’ greats. Mind like a steel trap and writing that’s smoother than Shanghai silk.

    Dio at 343, share your enthusiasm. The journey to justice begins with these significant first steps. The MSM have stiffed this story for years. This is not so much a can, as a mega-vat full of worms, and a mess of early-bird truth-vultures have begun to circle.

    Jv and Dio, here’s another superb NYer essay about Abu Grahib from Sy Hersh in 2004.
    http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2004/05/17/040517fa_fact2

    And yes, one hears Mungo’s resonance all over the Echo article.

    Thanks, Poss, for the Penn charts:
    Da girl “dead”!!….. only she don’ know it yet!
    You can tell by the look on her face that “death” was always gon be a surprise to her ass! (Richard Pryor)

  5. Good to see you back, codger, you dodgy doggerelist!
    Hope asanque has a good night’s kip and a rethink and soon rejoins us as well.
    When I first went to LP, I got my blog butt whupped bigtime and suffered many a ding to my pride. Had a little spell, got over it, re-jigged my approach and now really enjoy popping in there from time to time to learn, share and play.

  9. #301
    The Finnigans referenced a Time article detailing Obama’s Achilles’ heel.

    “Patriotism is, sadly, a crucial challenge for Obama now.

    #349 jaundiced view posted a reference to an article detailing life inside Abu Ghraib. Around page 9 is the following comment …

    When toughness failed her, and niceness was not an option, Harman took refuge in denial. “That’s the only way to get through each day, is to start blocking things out,” she said. “Just forget what happened. You go to bed, and then you have the next day to worry about. It’s another day closer to home. Then that day’s over, and you just block that one out.” At the same time, she faulted herself for not being a more enthusiastic soldier when prisoners on Tier 1A were being given the business. When she was asked how other M.P.s could go at it without apparent inhibition, all she could say was “They’re more patriotic.”

    Finns, I was just thinking that maybe character and intelligence trump the gross stupidity of blind ignorant patriotism.

  12. Decay is slow motion ..

    AG Andrew Cuomo’s communications director, Jeffrey Lerner, is departing to become the political field director for Change to Win, a coalition of labor unions that is actively supporting Barack Obama for president. An interesting move, since Cuomo, who served as HUD secretary in the Clinton administration, is backing Hillary Clinton against Obama in the seemingly never-ending battle for the Democratic nomination.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/04/proclinton-cuomo-loses-spokesm.html

  13. Finns – your #301 comment just bounced back into my line of fire (again).

    I wasn’t even thinking about you – it was just another one of those articles I was reading in which this patriot thing came up and this time it was patriotism linked to that Wright guy – and so naturally you just appeared in my imagination – sort of with a ‘plop’ sound and a 301 sign branded onto your forehead – but I’m digressing …

    Here is what someone called Bob has to say on the subject.

    In 1961, a young African-American man, after hearing President John F. Kennedy’s challenge to, “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country,” gave up his student deferment, left college in Virginia and voluntarily joined the Marines. In 1963, this man, having completed his two years of service in the Marines, volunteered again to become a Navy corpsman. (They provide medical assistance to the Marines as well as to Navy personnel.) The man did so well in corpsman school that he was the valedictorian and became a cardiopulmonary technician. Not surprisingly, he was assigned to the Navy’s premier medical facility, Bethesda Naval Hospital, as a member of the commander in chief’s medical team, and helped care for President Lyndon B. Johnson after his 1966 surgery. For his service on the team, which he left in 1967, the White House awarded him three letters of commendation. What is even more remarkable is that this man entered the Marines and Navy not many years after the two branches began to become integrated. While this young man was serving six years on active duty, Vice President Dick Cheney, who was born the same year as the Marine/sailor, received five deferments, four for being an undergraduate and graduate student and one for being a prospective father. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, both five years younger than the African-American youth, used their student deferments to stay in college until 1968. Both then avoided going on active duty through family connections. Who is the real patriot? The young man who interrupted his studies to serve his country for six years or our three political leaders who beat the system? Are the patriots the people who actually sacrifice something or those who merely talk about their love of the country? After leaving the service of his country, the young African-American finished his final year of college, entered the seminary, was ordained as a minister, and eventually became pastor of a large church in one of America’s biggest cities. This man is Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the retiring pastor of Trinity United Church of Christ, who has been in the news for comments he made over the last three decades. Since these comments became public we have heard criticisms, condemnations, denouncements and rejections of his comments and him. We’ve seen on television, in a seemingly endless loop, sound bites of a select few of Rev. Wright’s many sermons. Some of the Wright’s comments are inexcusable and inappropriate and should be condemned, but in calling him “unpatriotic,” let us not forget that this is a man who gave up six of the most productive years of his life to serve his country. How many of Wright’s detractors, Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly to name but a few, volunteered for service, and did so under the often tumultuous circumstances of a newly integrated armed forces and a society in the midst of a civil rights struggle? Not many. While words do count, so do actions. Let us not forget that, for whatever Rev. Wright may have said over the last 30 years, he has demonstrated his patriotism.

    Keep in mind – I’m just an observer on the sidelines – but don’t you find it funny that the word ‘patriot’ can on one hand point us to greatness, and on the other hand can point to the terrible darkness of humanity. I guess what I’m really thinking is that anyone posting about ‘patriotism’ should think deep and hard about the consequences and implications of that word.

  14. BREAKING NEWS

    The Democratic Party is closer than it’s ever been to a political nightmare—a deadlocked convention. Though the odds of its actually happening are still remote, the idea is so rich with dramatic possibility that we asked Lawrence O’Donnell Jr., former West Wing writer-producer, to play out a scenario in movie-treatment form. The premise is that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton arrive in Denver, neither having sufficient delegates to gain the nomination nor a decisive majority in the popular vote. And so it’s on…

    For everyone who loved the West Wing – this is classic.

  15. And the last not for the evening …

    Today’s Gallup tracking poll gives Barack Obama a nine-point national lead over Hillary Clinton, well outside the margin of error. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

    Obama 52% (+3)
    Clinton 43% (-3)

  16. ‘ “No Really, You Should Go”
    ‘Demolishing the wretched rationalizations for Hillary Clinton’s continuing campaign.’ by Jonathan Chait (The new Republic)
    “There is some point at which a candidate’s chance of winning becomes so low that her right to continue is outweighed by the party’s interest in preparing for the general election. Does Clinton have a chance to become president? Sure. So does Ralph Nader. Clinton’s chances are far closer to Nader’s than to either Obama’s or John McCain’s. …Depending on how the remaining primaries go, Clinton will need about two-thirds of the uncommitted ones [supers] to break her way. Problem is, over the last month, superdelegates have broken to Obama by 78 percent to 22 percent… And the supers who haven’t endorsed are even less likely to side with Clinton. Numerous reports on uncommitted superdelegates have made clear that they have remained on the sideline out of an exquisite fear of stepping on the results of the voters …”

    http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=6b3d9c26-7c9e-4814-badd-a124edc68718

  17. And here comes another superdelegate for Obama, clearly pissed off with the Clinton behaviour:

    Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), an uncommitted Democratic superdelegate, said Sen. Hillary Clinton’s criticism of the Iowa caucuses and Sen. Barack Obama’s advantage among independent voters “would weigh on his decision, should he declare his support for one or the other,” the Des Moines Register reports. Harkin has said he will remain uncommitted at least until after the final state nominating contests are held on June 3.”

  19. Good morning Bludgers , happy to be back & looking forward to the warm welcome, after Labor projects & sojourns

    j/v , Clinton concede for the Party & give up a mathematical chance of POTUS ! An ivory tower view of politics. Heavyweight Pollies including your precious Obama think of their ambition first , always have & always will.

    What you fail to realise is through US voters eyes rather than Aussie ones , is without Pastorgate most SD’s may already have voted in mass for Obama & made him the Nominee already. But then you still misunderstand US patriotism to the Aussie version & the current & future Pastorgate relevance to it

  20. 369
    jaundiced view

    Although to be realistic, there’s an awful lot of white working class voters who’d vote McCain before they’d vote Obama, so Hillary Clinton is still more than likely able to win PA. But if she can’t get her lead into at least double figures she’s going to see even more of the shine (what’s left of it) rub off.

    Conversely, if Obama pegs her well under 10%, then his campaign has triumphed, and starved her of oxygen enough to virtually end her run, and once again confirmed his Big Mo.

    With Penn falling out, her money problems getting worse, it’s likely the internal morale of Camp Clinton will wipe the rictus grin off her face and get her to confront what she’s been avoiding, ie, that she cannot win. And as more of the Supers drift to Obama every week, the slow drip drip will have to crack her.

  21. “the slow drip drip will have to crack her.”

    You are joking as usual. Hillary has ‘ticker’ so she will not crack . She will only concede when ‘politically’ she thinks the game is up.
    However “Ticker’ is one of the question marks now up for question about Obama after Pastorgate.

    The only relevance of Pensylvania is if Hillary can win another big State by any margin & the momentum effect of the final margin on the number of SD’s that then commit

  22. G’Day, Gang, that bloody Wiley guy who does Non Sequitur has etched himself upon my brain. He bad, Bludgers, he bad!

    What should you tell your precociously politically-aware child when she asks:
    “Daddy, can you give me two good reasons why Senator McCain is unelectable?”
    “Well, Sweetie, my pop always used to say that a picture saved a thousand words.”

    ……“And Senator McCain is publicly very close to disgraced President George Bush. Some folks have called Senator McCain an “Imbecile Hugger” which is downright impolite but sometimes a person has to speak plainly to make the point.”

    “…….and the two of them wear the same coloured trousers and shirts, even their fashion accessories (belts and ties) are the same style and colour.”

    “Oh, yes! Thank you, daddy, I get it now. Senator McCain is a Try Hard.
    He’s got no chance!”

  23. This article points out the correlation between how the SDs endorse and whether their state is Obama or Clinton. There is a strong correlation. And there are more uncommitted SDs in “Obama” states than “Clinton” states. So the undecideds would have to go against the pledged delegates, the popular vote AND their own states vote to even give Billary a sniff. I just cannot se that happening.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/unpledged_delegate_projections.html

  24. greig @ 370 –

    without Pastorgate most SD’s may already have voted in mass for Obama

    Yes, Hillary would stay until political death. I just think it has already happened. The remaining SD’s seem to be getting restless, and with 3/4 plus of them going Obama’s way, before and after Pastorgate, it doesn’t seem that beat-up changed anything at all.

    But then you still misunderstand US patriotism

    As to patriotism, of course the Repugs, and also Clinton in the short remaining period of her candidacy, will push the patriotism button a lot, but that’s just standard fare for all elections. Obama can take that – he’ll be teflon coated because of the overall climate for change (like Rudd was). The patriotic dog-whistling will be muddied waters anyway due to the Iraq war being a stinking electoral swamp. The ‘super-patriot’ neo-cons have made patriotism an unsettling pursuit with a lot of voters, and it won’t resonate nearly as much as usual. (Remember the Vietnam political wash-up?)
    If you don’t believe me, have a look at soldier Sabrin Harman’s quote on what patriotism meant in Abu Ghraib, from an interview in the New Yorker – at j/s’s post @ 360 . No-one, not even Americans, can warmly embrace patriotism when it is represented in images like those of such inhumanity. And there’s more to come on all of that during the campaign.

    KR –

    if Obama pegs her well under 10%, then his campaign has triumphed, and starved her of oxygen enough to virtually end her run
    Agreed – even 10% in Penn will be half the Clinton expectations of a couple of weeks ago, and the momentum will stay with Obama, while Hillary bleeds to death through the truncated stumps of her four limbs.

  26. 374 without the html stuff-up:

    greig @ 370 – [without Pastorgate most SD’s may already have voted in mass for Obama]

    Yes, Hillary would stay until political death. I just think it has already happened. The remaining SD’s seem to be getting restless, and with 3/4 plus of them going Obama’s way, before and after Pastorgate it doesn’t seem that beat-up changed anything at all.

    [But then you still misunderstand US patriotism]

    As to patriotism, of course the Repugs, and also Clinton in the short remaining period of her candidacy, will push the patriotism button a lot, but that’s just standard fare for all elections. Obama can take that – he’ll be teflon coated because of the overall climate for change (like Rudd was). The patriotic dog-whistling will be muddied waters anyway due to the Iraq war being a stinking electoral swamp. The ‘super-patriot’ neo-cons have made patriotism an unsettleing pursuit with a lot of voters, and it won’t resonate nearlyas much as usual. (Remenber the Vietnam political wash-up?)
    If you don’t believe me, have a look at soldier Sabrin Harman’s quote on what patriotism meant in Abu Ghraib, from an interview in the New Yorker – at j/s’s post @ 360 . No-one, not even Americans, can warmly embrace patriotism when it is represented in images like those of such inhumanity. And there’s more to come on all of that during the campaign.

    KR – [if Obama pegs her well under 10%, then his campaign has triumphed, and starved her of oxygen enough to virtually end her run]

    Agreed – even 10% in Penn will be half the Clinton expectations of a couple of weeks ago, and the momentum will stay with Obama, while Hillary bleeds to death through the truncated stumps of her four limbs.

  27. Greig, more pastorgate? You don’t know our special friend (R/r)on do you?

    The Superdelegates are coming out one by one because they want to be seen to be making an independent assessment and decision on who is the parties best nominee. If the SDs move as a block it will put one supporter group or the other offside as it will be seen that the machine has conspired against one candidate or the other.

    Let’s not play these I have a finger on the pulse of American sentiment and you don’t, games. That was the good Dr Carr’s belief and he came a cropper.

  28. On a tangential note, here are the first five headline articles on the Sydney Morning Herald site at the moment:

    Shark Attack: teen dead

    School machete rampage: 101 charges

    Incest father’s daughter traumatised

    Child hero as bus driver leaves brake off

    Mother keeps healthy son in wheelchair

    …spot a theme?

    Welcome to ‘dumbocracy’ when that’s considered ‘newsworthy’ enough for the front page big print headlines.

    God save us, if it’s not already too late.

  29. 377
    TurningWorm

    Ah, Das Wunderkind, we do miss his insights so! And I’m still pining for more of his slapping now that Hillary is obviously winning the nomination.

    Us ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ have so much penance to do, eh?

  30. KR @ 378 [Welcome to ‘dumbocracy’ when that’s considered ‘newsworthy’ enough for the front page big print headlines.]

    Don’t worry KR, the Byron Shire Echo is on the move into the mainstream 🙂

  31. j/v , its Ron greig by the way.

    You misunderstand the point. You present an Australian eyes view of US peoples patriotism. Through alot of Australian’s eyes the over the top US patriotism ra ra is bull at best. To alot in the US the ‘military’ and the ‘flag’ are almost sacred , even despite of their distaste of the Iraq war.

    Trashing these sacred points may be unimportant to you & alot of Australians. But you are not a US voter who do care particularly an independent one. McCain has not even fired a shot at the subject….yet , but the future ads will be plentiful.

    It is why Obama had to refer to Patriotism etc. in his Philly speech in a contest against just Hillary who had not fired any real shots at it.
    Obama’s dual problems will be McCain will fire real shots and Obama has played his Philly speech already & cann’t easily repeat it. Its political point scoring & US patriotism is a strong card

    My personal view of US ‘patriotism’ (whilst I think its over the top) is irrelevant

  32. j/v , its Ron greig by the way.

    You misunderstand the point. You present an Australian eyes view of US peoples patriotism. Through alot of Australian’s eyes the over the top US patriotism ra ra is bull at best. To alot in the US the ‘military’ and the ‘flag’ are almost sacred , even despite of their distaste of the Iraq war.

    Trashing these sacred points may be unimportant to you & alot of Australians. But you are not a US voter who do care particularly an independent one. McCain has not even fired a shot at the subject….yet , but the future ads will be plentiful.

    It is why Obama had to refer to Patriotism etc. in his Philly speech in a contest against just Hillary who had not fired any real shots at it.
    Obama’s dual problems will be McCain will fire real shots and Obama has played his Philly speech already & cann’t easily repeat it. Its political point scoring & US patriotism is a strong card

  33. 380
    jaundiced view

    I look forward to Mungo’s Billinudgel view of the world going mainstream, but seriously doubt the rest of Australia will! LOL

    God spare us this tripe. I think the intertubes have a lot to answer for in lowering the already diminished national IQ a few more points.

  35. Here we go again, another Bludger with an identity crisis! What is it about this site that stimulates otherwise seemingly sane indididuals to lose track of themselves?

  36. KR,

    “Conversely, if Obama pegs her well under 10%, then his campaign has triumphed, and starved her of oxygen enough to virtually end her run, and once again confirmed his Big Mo.”

    A triumph of mythematics. You win by not being thrashed by as much as you expect. Is that a straw argument I see being built?

    Oh, and I notice today’s “willy willy” tale of alleged SDs turning to Obama has arrived early. Nothing has changed! You guys are like Glen Milne looking for the dirt on Rudd. There is none, but that doesn’t stop him(and you) banging on about it.

  37. not sure if the compliment was directed at me,
    but Mrs…..(followed by the bloggers names here) would enthall spouses and amuse the kids.

  38. GG, still flogging that dead horse Hillary eh?

    She’s losing, behind, unable to get to the line ahead of Obama and PA was her last ‘big state’ to take with 20 plus points. But it now looks likely she’ll squeak it in, again.

    So tell me how that’s going to get a deluge of Supers onto her side? Hmmm? It won’t, and as each week goes by, her campaign looks more and more moribund. She ain’t winning anything, not the nomination, and not against McCain.

    Toast. Buttered side down.

  39. KR,

    Ready to show me 2025 eh?

    Obama is boast. With all that hot air spewing out, I suspect him and his supporters are the real cause of global warming.

  41. Bring it on Ecky, bring it on!

    I note, with wry amusement, that the driveling-idiot Bill Kristol is saying that Hillary is finished and the Obama machine has quite a few Republicans crying into their beer that they’ve got old McCain running (well, figuratively at least) against this phenomena.

    But like all prognostications of Billy he draws the wrong assuptions, and he concludes Obama can’t win against McCain! LOL

    That’s it folks, in the bag. One thing is certain in this world, if Bill Kristol says McCain is going to win against Obama, then you can bank on that being wrong; he’s got a perfect record in getting things arse-about.

  42. GG @ 390

    Neither side can show the 2024 delegates until the convention when they actually vote. Hillary has repeatedly said that the pledged delegates are up for grabs so even 2024 PDs would not satisfy her. Using your argument, we wil have to wait for the convention before the Dems have a nominee.

    Does there get to be a stage where the chances of Hillary winning are so remote that you think she should concede? 10%, 5%, 1% or 0.001%.

  43. Turningworm @ 377 – You picked r/Ron’s subterfuge in one! Well done.

    r/Ron/lower-case greig @ 370 – You got me in on false pretences; I didn’t pick the false flag before I returned fire!

    GG @ 387 – the magic 2025 will be reached from the 349 supers as yet uncommitted. Obama will need about 122 of them on current primary projections. That’s 34%. So Hillary can get up to 65% of them from now and still fall short. Over the past couple of months, Hillary’s support rate has been 22%.

    The link is at Diogenes’ #373 post. Check it out yourself.

    Mythical? What is mythical is the unsupported faith that the current rate of Hillary’s SD support can be reversed. Where’s the evidence for that? In Hillary’s fantasy-packed mind?
    Poor Hillary – f*cked in the head, and f*cked in the campaign.

  44. GG, j/v and all – I’m pretty sure the magic number is 2024 as things stand. Some movement in the indiscernable SD world removed one from outside MI and andded one more to MI. So current maths that I have seen has 4047 up for grabs and 2024 needed to win. These numbers will of change when Hillary can no longer argue against the 50/50 split for MI and/or something is worked out in FL. Of course, this may be a while, seeing as the Clinton tactic seems to be to drag out the resolution of these states as long as possible.

    Also, Dr Jekyll and Mr. Ron, what’s going on up there?

    Also, the Clinton capaign is managing to derail its derailing. Have a look at the ghost of Mark Penn, still trying to screw things from the side of the road: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/07/penn-speaks-in-private-wi_n_95508.html. Whatever (I was going to write ‘all you Clinton supporters’, but let me just try) GG, Finns, and Ron think of her as a politician, you must admit her campaign and strategies have been just awful. I’m not sure how such a performance fills you with the confidence you seem to have in what she would do in November.

    And it looks like Wolfson is involved in the union-busting Columbia dealings too: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/07/clinton-colombia-ties-don_n_95525.html. Could she lose the unloseable in Pennsylvania?

  45. Hey! I’ve got some backup:

    “In the days and weeks ahead, the Barack Obama campaign is going to pose a simple question to the undecided voters and undeclared superdelegates who will decide the Democratic nomination for president: If Hillary Clinton can’t run a good primary campaign, how is she ever going to run a good campaign against the Republicans?”
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9436.html

    Seems like a fair argument to me.

  47. Politics isn’t fair, is it GG? That is what happens when you establish bad character traits with bad political impulses. Hillary is now established, in the minds of punters, as a liar. If she tells one side of a story, and someone else another, she will not be believed. As has happened here. She has continually lied and cheated, been pulled up on it, and is branded by her own actions now.

  48. There is a hitch in Obama’s packaging as the race candidate post Philadelphia. As the Hitch called “Obama Is No King” –

    “The thing that this gaggle of cranks and parasites has in common is the extreme deference with which it is treated by the junior senator from Illinois. In April 2004, Barack Obama told a reporter from the Chicago Sun-Times that he had three spiritual mentors or counselors: Jeremiah Wright, James Meeks, and Father Michael Pfleger—for a change of pace, a white Catholic preacher who has a close personal feeling for the man he calls (as does Obama) Minister Farrakhan………. So amnesiac have we become, indeed, that we fall into paroxysms of adulation for a ward-heeling Chicago politician who does not complete, let alone “transcend,” the work of Dr. King; who hasn’t even caught up to where we were four decades ago; and who, by his chosen associations, negates and profanes the legacy that was left to all of us.

    http://www.slate.com/id/2188414/

    More to say about the “packaging” of Obama later as perspiration and inspiration mingle, mangle , tangle and tango.

  50. Pancho,

    It seems your morals are as dodgy as your maths.

    The contest is not finished. Don’t come bleeting when the Obama Boat sinks with all hands. Politics isn’t fair.

    Cheers.

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