Kentucky fried Clinton

Democratic primaries will be held Wednesday our time in Oregon and Kentucky, which will respectively choose 52 and 51 delegates. Below is another race associated with the latter state, which this year ended with runner-up Eight Belles having to be put down*. Does the knackers’ yard beckon for a certain second-placed Democratic nag? Discuss.

* Unfortunately for my metaphor, Clinton in fact holds a handy 30.5 per cent lead in Kentucky, according to Real Clear Politics. Obama however leads by 12.4 per cent in Oregon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,133 comments on “Kentucky fried Clinton”

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  1. 2038
    jaundiced view

    Thanks JV, I was a bit rushed this morning, but the content was the important bit really.

    And it was a nice summary of why Clinton’s behaviour has been so appalling. She’s happy to throw crap all day, but when then she goes one dogwhislte too far and throws up her hands by saying, “oh, it was only a reference to the timeline”! LOL

    She is, utterly shameless, and tacky.

    Good riddance is the best we can say about her.

    Jen: Obama’s deportment has been of another class entirely. Isn’t it ironic that the PB Nasties go for Hillary?

    Say it all really.

  4. No GG, the contest was over months ago, Hillary doesnt need a final nail. Adn I agree with you that this is a beat-up. Unfortunately the contest wont actually end until Hillary pulls out

  5. Superdelegate Update
    As mentioned by Al, Obama has just secured the three add-delegates from Hawaii.

    This brings the size of the uncommitted super delegate pool down 3 delegates to 286.

    Delegate Totals (including Pelosi factor)

    Obama: 1983 delegates, needs 42 to win (or 14.7% of the pool)
    Clinton: 1499 delegates, needs 247 to win (or 86.4% of the pool)

    Forward Projections to end-of-contest

    Obama: 2025 delegates — winner under current rules
    Clinton: 1822 delegates, needs 203 out of a pool of 200 (or 101.5%)

  7. A good comparison re: MSMs differential treatment is the coverage of Huckabee’s comments, bearing in mind he was out of the race at the time. His comments were specifically about Obama and far worse

  8. Look out, Gruffy’s just realised there is empirical evidence with is not a bunch of bus stop state polls, and they have better historical predictive value! LOL

    Guess what Gruffy? You are outnumbered! People with money actually put it where their mouths are, unlike your dear gruffy self, who only manages it with your foot! LOL

    I’m loving watching your crap arguments go down the toilet mate. Loving it.

    Bring it on, as the Idiot Decider once said.

  10. 2056
    Jen

    Quite. Anyone who can ride above this rubbish with dignity is clearly not fit to be POTUS! LOL

    Amazing, isn’t it?

  11. 2044
    Robert Bollard

    Robert, I’ll be singing about Dental Floss Tycoons soon if you don’t stop it! LOL

  13. Andrew,

    Without the Pelosi Club (which I normally ignore, since they haven’t definitively said they’re voting for Obama yet), it’s 49 delegates until Obama has the 2025 delegates to secure the nomination under the current rules.

  17. Andrew at 2066
    Yes – the 42 number is:
    total undeclared supers – ( pledged + supers + pelosi factor )
    where total undeclared supers is the total supers – pelosi supers – declared supers

  18. Congratulations to NASA for landing the Phoenix on Mars. (Superb achievement, and I’m looking forward to hearing about what it finds.)

    Another one of those rare moments when humans achieve the near miraculous with teamwork and intellect.

    If only we could the same down here on earth!

  22. (correction)

    Andrew at 2066
    Yes – the 42 number is the [supers needed to win]

    [supers needed to win] = [target] – [allocated delegates]
    [allocated delegates] = [pledged] + [declared supers] + [pelosi factor]
    [target] = 2025
    [pelosi] = +7 Obama, -1 Clinton

  24. Just a thought experiment:

    Imagine a parallel universe wherein Hillary is leading with Obama’s numbers and he’s got hers.

    Now, imagine Hillary’s behaviour! I can see her motorcading down Pennsylvania Avenue and announcing to the world on every available media that she is the Democratic nominee and that the people have spoken. Too bad for Obama, he’s a good Democrat, blah blah, but hey, he’s lost the race.

    OK, guys, in fifty words or less tell us what Hillary would be saying in that parallel world!

  27. 2075

    It would be a Hillarious display of egotistical self-adulation no doubt about it. At least Obama has the grace to allow her to fizzle out without going to the press and arguing for her to die. (Ooops, she kind of did that, didn’t she?)

  30. Greeny at 2049 – by saying “near perfect” I mean that they nearly never get it wrong in terms of results – even a fair way out. But this really only applies to actual elections and not primary results. Their primary results are still better than the pollsters, but no where near as good as what they achieve in proper elections.

    Because a bigger probability of a win doesnt necesarrily correspond to the size of a win (for instance, California is in the bag for the Dems, but even though it has a 90+% probability of a Democrat victory, it doesnt mean that the victory will be enormous) the prediction markets dont really have much to say about margins unless the market is specifically betting on the size of the margin.

    The Iowa Electronic Market for instance has picked every presidential winner since 1988 when it started, but has also got the popular vote of the winner to within 1%.

    It comes back to the difference between polls and markets – Polls are a snapshot and are only predictive if you foreast ahead, but because the polls contain so much uncertainty, forecasting ahead, even a small time period ahead, generally leads to a forecast with a MoE of around 20%.

    Intrade on the other hand isnt a snapshot – it’s predictive by design.

    I’ll see if I can dig up some spiffy graphs that highlight the comparative accuracy of polls vs Intrade for the previous elections – might take a little while.

  31. KR @ 2058,

    For one so certain of themselves, you display a lot of deep seated insecurity. You say you don’t read my posts but, you never let one go without an inanely abusive rejoinder. Does that make you a liar or self delusional?

    Perhaps jealousy explains your vitriol because it is quite noticeable that you like to jump in to hamfistedly disrupt my conversations with other posters. Or maybe its an unquenchable desire to prove you are the smartest blogger going round. I don’t know why you need to keep trying to prove that to me?

    But, please keep rooting my boot if it makes you happy.

  34. Possum @ 2080,

    Thanks again.

    I am sure all here would be interested in the spiffy graphs.

    Cheers

  35. Former 4 term Republican from Georgia Bob Barr has just won the Libertarian nomineeship for November.

    It just keeps getting worse for McCain and the decaying Repug Party.

    When Ron Paul endorses him as well, the Libertarians will bleed a few % points off a Repug Party that is headed for an absolute thumping.

    Possum, have you got any thoughts on this added mix to likely poll results?

    Barr represents a return to small government, fiscal restraint, anti-immigration and climate change denial that a wing of the Repug Party are crying out for. Along with the Ron Paulists they could cost McCain a few states.

    The Libertarians best national result is 1.2% in 1980 but this is their highest profile ticket and they have their most fertile ground to work with.

    Rasmussen have polled them with 6% of the vote between McCain-Obama-Barr.

    Barr could very well cost a State or 2 like Nader did to Gore.

  37. 2085
    HarryH

    Don’t you love it? Climate change denier, and presumably flat earther as well. Between the loony tune religious nutters and these climate change fundamentalists (who funadmentally igonre the vast array of evidence), McCain will certainly not pull the votes that the Idiot Decider did.

  38. Oh Gruffy, you’re such a sore loser aren’t you?

    Don’t worry, it’s not too late to change, we’ll just forget all the insults you chucked along the way! LOL

    As for ‘rooting my boot’, how’s that possible when it’s so firmly with your other one in your mouth all the time?

    I ask you?

  39. Conservatives said Barr could be a spoiler for McCain this year.

    Don Devine, vice-chairman of the Washington-based American Conservative Union, said the community is beginning to buzz about Barr, and he could win 3 percent to 4 percent of the vote in the general election.

    “I could see myself voting for him,” Devine said. “I could see a lot of other conservatives voting for him.”

    Richard Viguerie, a conservative direct-mail operative who will speak today at the Libertarian convention, met with Barr on May 21 but remains uncommitted.

    “Libertarians are going to do well this year, and it’s going to come out of John McCain’s hide,” Viguerie said. Many conservatives feel “their vote is not going to matter that much, so why not send a message?”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aZAdOxa11zGg&refer=us

  40. HarryH and Andrew

    Does the presence of a libertarian present a challenge to both parties though. To me, i see them as taking the left of the repugs, and the rights of the dems. One of Obama’s strenths has been his support from independents dissatisfied with the status quo. Surely libetarians would detract from Obama as well….

  41. Yo Ho Ho

    Bob Barr isn’t going to attract any Democrats of any note. It will overwhelmingly be disillusioned Republicans. He is a hard Right Conservative.

    He won’t be attracting upset Clinton supporters either. Barr led the charge on the House floor in the impeachment of Bill.

    Barr and the Libertarians are a headache for the Repugs. A headache that could turn into a migraine.

  42. HarryH

    Ta for that. I probably should’ve done a little research into who Bob Barr was.

    How does a hard-right conservative run for the libetarians? I find it hard to see how that fits. Ah well.

  45. Possum , k/tr the internet link man , Andrew , BO , Progressive etc ..will reply to all

    k/r 2021 first

    All Obama supporters were supplied with 19 questions (#1857) and a further
    later one ‘What in detail is Obama’s intellectual agenda , whose model is it based on and which economists theorys are Obama’s fiscal monetary & regulatory policys to be based on ? ‘ (for my P , checked dictionary)

    You chose to try to answer this 3 part question in your #1995 , you but ignored the first two parts and talked around the 3rd part without answering the actual question. Its from Obama’s own mouth from his ooo’s of speechs he must have declared his intellectual agenda and his various Mentors for each of the 2 parts. Unless yous are suggesting all 3 parts Mentor’s are Obamabotic , ie. Obama is their creator. No use you googling your pro Obama papers like DailyKos for a 3rd person writer’s opinion of what he (not Obama) thinks Obama’s agenda & Mentors are and then as usual cut & paste guy ‘the internet link man’ giving a link (I am NOT asking for that). Obama’s the candidate, whats he said re my 3 part question.

    Seeing I was not asking for Obama’s detailed economic policys requiring apges of info , but merely the intellectual agenda detail and th Mentors names for the question parts , which would have been easy had you known the answr , obviously you do not know. Which is why you acted as if sprung & used diversion about sentences constuction attention seeking etc

  47. So good having a “not going to read Ron’s posts” policy. My health has improved so much since adopting it and I highly recommend it to all

  49. Yo Ho Ho

    It is indeed remarkable how Barr fits into the Libertarian Party. At the nominating convention there was a flyer on each seat saying that a vote for Barr would be a vote for turning the Libertarians into a “New Conservative Republican Party”.

    Many true Libertarians aren’t happy with Barr’s nomination but it will now be a Party that will attract Conservatives. Bad news for McCain and a decaying Republican Party. They are really headed for a thumping in November. The base is fragmented all over the place.

    Independants are attracted to Obama. Hard conservatives are repelled by McCain and the current Repug Party. And wingnuts are disillusioned.

    A tidal wave is coming.

    It is just extremely fortuitous that this is the only time that a youngish, liberalish,blackish, thoughtful progressive could get elected.

    And not only will he get elected but he will get elected in a landslide.

  50. Yes Andrew 2097 follow the Kirri example shut your mind to alternative points of view. I believe it helps Kirri with the rage issues too!

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