ACNielsen: 56-44

Today’s Fairfax broadsheets bring us the latest monthly ACNielsen survey of federal voting intention, showing Labor’s two-party lead narrowing slightly from 57-43 to 56-44. It also finds Peter Costello favoured as Liberal leader by 37 per cent of respondents against 29 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 19 per cent for Brendan Nelson, and gives the government generally poor ratings for its handling of petrol prices despite a Labor lead of 38 per cent to 34 per cent as the party best able to handle the issue.

Another federal poll which earlier escaped notice was last Monday’s Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australian voters. It showed Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, which can be read as good news for the government if compared with the 2007 election result (53.3-46.7 in the Coalition’s favour), or bad news if compared with the April Westpoll (63-37 to Labor). It too found Peter Costello favoured as Liberal leader, with 21 per cent support, against 18 per cent for both Malcolm Turnbull and local hero Julie Bishop and just 10 per cent for Brendan Nelson. We will presumably be hearing from Newspoll this evening.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

132 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”

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  1. The jump out number is the Costello 37% as Preferred Opposition Leader. Current state of play with Cossie seems to be that he hasn’t been able to secure the sort of paying position in Australia that he would like and is not keen on moving O/s. Therefore, all that’s left is Australian politics. If true and he is staying, then Brendan is in for some interesting times in the near future.

  2. Are the full results/table available anywhere? Curious (of course!) about the full figures, esp if any rural/city or age breakdown.

  3. That means that 63% of voters DON”T want Cossie as leader of the Libs. Doesn’t sound so good now does it?

  4. Again the Opposition has failed to land a glove on the Government in Question Time. Hockey is carrying on like a pork chop (as is becoming usual).

  5. I only caught bits of QT today but Julia, Tanner and even Ferguson were lecturing the “opposition” , and there was almost total silence!
    A bit subdued on ‘tother side?
    On the verge of losing any relevancy will do that to you LOL

  8. Gravity, fuel prices, MSM campaigning, Nelson looking like an opposition – who knows the reason for the decline. Only goes to confuse the LNP as to what to do with Nelson and Turnbull.

    I can only cringe at the thought of the mess Turnbull and Nelson would make of the economy if they were in charge. Nelson blown around by the opinion of the last hour while Turnbull to lazy to find out the real facts.

  9. I suspect it has been the sustained campaign of the MSM including the ABC over months trying to undermine the Govt.

  10. To be honest I suspect just a natural fall. It isn’t huge and the government couldn’t hold onto those lofty figures forever, although these aren’t exactly low figures are they?

  11. Now hang on…

    In this poll, 78% of respondents believe the government should “act” on fuel prices.

    While in a newspoll taken only 2 weeks ago, nearly 50% of respondents believed there was nothing either party could do about it anyway.

    http://enrol.com.au/mumblestuff/pdfs/20080602newspollpetrol.pdf

    So what’s the story? People have changed their minds suddenly? Or was there a slightly different phrasing, or framing of context in the Nielsen poll?

  12. All the apparent declines in Labor’s PPM, Approval, 1st Pref and 2PP are within the MOE. They could be real, but there’s been no dramatic change since the last ACNielsen at all.

  13. “78% of respondents believe the government should “act” on fuel prices.” They might just as well ask “Do you want the government to supplement your income?” You’d get the same result although most would see it as unworkable and unaffordable.

  21. Since the enactment of the Parliamentary Privileges Act neither House has had the power to expel a Member from its membership.

    So Neal would have to resign.

  23. No, no, Honest John, I think you’re wrong, I’m quite sure that by 7pm next thursday the seat of Robertson will be taken over in an armed uprising by Humphrey B Bear as part of his Glen Milne masterminded campaign to institute a national ‘no trousers’ policy.

  25. 80% of Australians want a tax cut on petrol a new poll reveals.

    In other news, 90% of Australians want to pay no income taxes, 85% would prefer not to pay GST on anything and 98% would agree to recieve a free LCD television from the government.

  26. As in the USA as in Australia..

    [Quoting the context in full is quite important. I say that because part of what makes this country’s right-wing commentators so pernicious is their willingness to bend journalism into what is tantamount to bogus credit cards boasting no fees. The distance from the truth is of no concern to the right-wingers. What they engage in is strange because their tactics are now so easily and so quickly disproved. The Internet has seen to that.

    Yet these pundits continue to assume that the public is so busy or in such a hurry or so ready to believe the worst that these commentators feel at liberty to compose myths transformed into mud by cutting words from statements, offering not even good samples of a whole speech. This propaganda version of reality is supposed to dupe the public. It exists for no other reason. ]

    http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/06/15/2008-06-15_youtube_has_michelle_obamas_critics_caug.html

    Unfortunately here there are few counter voices to set the record straight. Seem that commentator gives the internet some level of importance.

  28. “Yesterday the Prime Minister again repeatedly refused to give Australian workers a guarantee that they will not be worse off.”

    That was Honest John, the difference was that he knew many worker would be worse off.

  29. Chris Pyne wants to see if Neal has breached section 139 of the criminal code:

    A Commonwealth public official is guilty of an offence if:
    (a) the official makes an unwarranted demand with menaces of another person; and
    (b) the demand or the menaces are directly or indirectly related to:
    (i) the official’s capacity as a Commonwealth public official; or
    (ii) any influence the official has in the official’s capacity as a Commonwealth public official; and
    (c) the official does so with the intention of:
    (i) obtaining a gain; or
    (ii) causing a loss; or
    (iii) influencing another Commonwealth public official in the exercise of the other official’s duties as a Commonwealth public official.

    I think he has buckleys. 😛

  31. The honeymoon is over with this poll. By this I mean 56-44 is a more normal looking set of numbers. I don’t expect to see many more 60-40’s because the electorate has a natural split of 40 – 40 – 20 (that is 40 ALP, 40 NLP and 20 swinging). It will be interesting to see if tonights Newspoll confirms the result.

    As for Binge Drinker after 4 beers, this kind of nonsense is likely to alienate many people. The vast majority of the adult population drinks alcohol and to suggest that such a moderate amounts equals “binge drinking” is like calling those people nasty names. And as the old saying goes, ‘Sticks and stones will break bones, but words will lose you votes”.

    Rudd should be very careful how he deals with this as it could lead to a world of pain. Every single member of the government will be having their drinks counted whenever they are out. You can see what will be on the front page of every tabloid the moment a minister has a fifth beer.

  32. Turning worm, whilst I get your point, I wouldnt go so far as calling news.com.au a quality outlet. But there’s no doubt ABC is toally feral

  33. Reuters is reporting this as a massive blow for the Rudd government.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKSYD17946320080616

    CANBERRA, June 16 (Reuters) – High fuel prices have given Australia’s Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd his biggest setback since winning office, a poll showed on Monday.

    Rudd, who has enjoyed the highest approval ever seen in Australia since his September election win, saw his popularity slide 2 points to 67 percent and public disapproval rise 5 points to 27 percent, a Nielsen poll in Fairfax newspapers showed.

    OMG!

  35. The NHMRC has come out with a report saying that more than 4 standard drinks a day is not good for your health. This report was commissioned by Tony Abbott.

    So it reports and its the Govt. trying to make 4 middies binge drinking. Give me a break.

    Has Crosby-Textor identified the Bundy demographic? 😉

  36. 35 – Yes, they could call it something else; for example “potential harmful drinking”. But calling it “Binge drinking” is like comparing Jaywalking with armed robbery.

  39. It is nuts to equate four drinks with binge drinking. In peoples minds binge drinking is going out and getting blotto. They need to work on their definitions to make sure they and the public understand what they are talking about.

  40. That does not matter. It is the message which is making the way to the public. The government could easily have said we are not going to declare four drinks binge drinking yesterday and knocked the story on the head. It is called media management, and for all the “spin masters” that the government is supposed to contain they didn’t do a very good job of spinning this story.

  41. Thanks for the link Ad astra at #6

    Has anyone else noticed that in the state by state breakdown, Kevin Rein’s lowest approval rating is QLD?

    I see its still in the 60s, but why the lowest in his home state? the footnote on MOE helps……

  42. NSW Power privatisation bills pulled for this session of parliament at least due to lack of numbers in both houses.

  43. Squiggle

    Labor only got 50.44% of the vote in Qld at the last election. So 60% approval should be sending shivers down the spine of Lib members in SE Qld.

  45. Phillip Coorey, writing today in the SMH says “…Labor’s two-party-preferred tally of 56 per cent to 44 per cent is virtually unchanged since the previous poll.” (It’s certainly within the MOE.) He also quotes John Stirton of ACNielsen as saying: “Nelson’s leadership has stabilised at relatively low levels.” and “… the result was worrying for Dr Nelson because he was less popular than Mr Costello and Mr Turnbull when the poll last canvassed preferred Coalition leaders, in December 2006. He hasn’t managed to change perceptions in the six months he’s been in the leadership.” http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/costellos-steady-hold-on-the-lead/2008/06/15/1213468240455.html

    How much joy can the Coalition and Brendan Nelson squeeze out of that?

    Anyway, let’s reserve judgement until this weeks Newspoll comes out.

  46. TV on in background while peeling the spuds for dinner around 4.15. Show on was It’s Academic. Question- true of false- John Howard’s real name is Englebert Humperdink? LOL

  47. Anyone care to venture some numbers on Newspoll? How about, oh, umm, 56/44, just for the hell of it, and Shanners unable to restrain himself about the voters’ post-coital disappointment, due to the lack of $ available to drive to the nearest outlet for Alcopops to enjoy said moment. I do recommend The Piping Shrike’s take on the Della Bosca and Neal situation for an interesting perspective.

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