ACNielsen: 56-44

Today’s Fairfax broadsheets bring us the latest monthly ACNielsen survey of federal voting intention, showing Labor’s two-party lead narrowing slightly from 57-43 to 56-44. It also finds Peter Costello favoured as Liberal leader by 37 per cent of respondents against 29 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 19 per cent for Brendan Nelson, and gives the government generally poor ratings for its handling of petrol prices despite a Labor lead of 38 per cent to 34 per cent as the party best able to handle the issue.

Another federal poll which earlier escaped notice was last Monday’s Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australian voters. It showed Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, which can be read as good news for the government if compared with the 2007 election result (53.3-46.7 in the Coalition’s favour), or bad news if compared with the April Westpoll (63-37 to Labor). It too found Peter Costello favoured as Liberal leader, with 21 per cent support, against 18 per cent for both Malcolm Turnbull and local hero Julie Bishop and just 10 per cent for Brendan Nelson. We will presumably be hearing from Newspoll this evening.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

132 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”

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  2. steve@98: as much as I have no respect for Bjelke Petersen, did he ever have anyone kidnapped and murdered for complaining.?

  4. Mr Mumbles, what are you doing here? I thought you’d be slaving away writing the update for your site in raw HTML (since you dont yet have a blog! grumble grumble – I’m not going to let this go you know Pete! :mrgreen: )

  7. and newspoll says:

    KEVIN Rudd’s honeymoon with Australian voters is not yet over, with the globe-trotting Prime Minister improving his fortunes and Brendan Nelson taking another hit in the polls.
    The latest Newspoll survey, published exclusively in The Australian tomorrow, reveals the strong gains recorded by the Opposition Leader in the previous poll two weeks ago have evaporated. Dr Nelson’s rating as preferred prime minister has slumped four points from 17 per cent to just 13 per cent – still well above the single-digit rates achieved at the start of the year – while Mr Rudd’s rating has risen two points to 68 per cent.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23875578-601,00.html

  20. maybe people are like playing silly buggers ,having a joke withh the pollsters you know the aussie larrikin spirit-oops that was jwh last year 🙂

  21. How dare Sam Maiden claim that “KEVIN Rudd’s honeymoon with Australian voters is not yet over…” Someone at the Oz needs to have her tested for drug use. How can she not be aware that the honeymoon ended when Dennis said it so?

  23. The opposition are cactus and by implication so is Dr Nelson.

    Turnbull should challenge soon. The time is right.

    Expect Gippsland to be close. Very close. If the ALP wins it then the opposition will tear itself apart. No wonder Costello can’t be tempted to stay.

  27. I doubt Gippsland will fall. It is the type of seats that won’t change much, which means other seats are moving more.

  31. Regardless of Nelson’s small fluctuations it is time right now to give Turnbull a go. I want to see if he is strong enough to get the LNP to make changes and especially drop Workchoices. If he shows some promise in the polls then he might find himself with some clout within his own group….dreaming, but we really do need a competent and relevant Opposition party.

  32. Oh Pete – you’re just sweet talkin’ me with your gonna be wordpress ways!

    Throwing the Newspoll into context, here’s the ALP TPP for every poll of 2008 from the three majors (Newspoll, Morgan and ACN) with a smoothed non-parametric regression line running through them to show us the likely state of play.

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