Seems Morgan have taken the week off, not counting its release of qualitative findings from federal polling conducted from June 4 to 9, leaving the following collection to stand on its own:
• The Launceston Examiner has published findings from an EMRS poll showing new Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett leading Liberal leader Will Hodgman 46 per cent to 32 per cent as preferred premier, whereas Paul Lennon trailed 32 per cent to 17 per cent in the poll immediately before his resignation. Hat tip to Peter Tucker.
• A poll by new kids on the block Essential Research shows Labor with a two-party lead of 59-41. The AAP report says this means Labor has “dropped one point”, but I think they might have missed the poll published on June 2 which had the score at 56-44.
• Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has published results from its Queensland Galaxy survey (its state-level findings are discussed here) on Liberal federal leadership preference, showing Peter Costello leading Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson with 30 per cent, 23 per cent and 14 per cent respectively. Respondents were also quizzed on petrol, maternity leave and the budget, though not (federal) voting intention.
• Ian McAllister of Australian National University and Juliet Clark of Deakin University have produced a report entitled Trends in Australian Political Opinion: Results from the Australian Election Study, 1987-2007, updating an earlier effort from before last year’s election. Hats off to News Limited for reporting the story thus. I haven’t read it yet, but these graphs from Crikey were absorbing enough that I’ve decided to pinch them:
• The Redistribution Committee for the Northern Territory has recommended no change to the boundaries of Solomon and Lingiari. Opponents of the status quo have until July 18 to register their displeasure. That is also the projected date for publication of proposed new boundaries for Western Australia (UPDATE: the date has been put back to August 1), with Tasmania to follow on August 22.
• Four days to go until the Gippsland by-election, on which discussion is invited here. Also on Saturday is a Victorian state by-election for Kororoit, vacated by one-time Police Minister Andre Haermeyer, where prominent charity worker and Phil Cleary ally Les Twentyman is taking the challenge up to Labor candidate Marlene Kairouz. More on this shortly.
46 “Hmm, so Fundies First support Binge Drinkers ?”
Looks like consistency won’t be one of their longsuits, Frank. A bit like the five different views of petrol cuts espoused by the Liberals over the past month or so. If the conservative side of politics keeps displaying this sort of splitting and backflipping it could spear them into a double dissolution looking like a pack of indecisive nohopers.
did anyone see Greg Hunt on 7 30 report tonight? he was even worse than Bishop on lateline last night, talk about sending out a boy in short pants to do a mans job, Kerry wiped the floor with him, i was actually cringing in embarrasment for the coalition, i felt like patting him on the head and saying “there,there never mind” surely the libs have better than that–or is this all thats avaliable?
52
Didn’t see it – I’m quarantining myself from video-media and Murdoch to see if it improves my mood – it’s working so far.
BUT
Hunt is absolutely ridiculous. If anyone thinks that anyone with even the slightest environmental inkling is going to vote for a party with him in any environmental portfolio they’re bonkers. I believe Allbull was seen as acceptable last year and might have been one of the reasons the LP got as close as they did.
It’s not like environmental issues are going to go away soon – it’s just another major problem the LP has to fix up.
I reckon the ALP will want to start the 1-on-1 debates about 12 months before the next election – just name 1 portfolio where the LP will come out in front?
CENTRE, i’n not going to waste William’s bandwidth here by getting on my pet hobbyhorse — but gee mate you make it hard, i feel physically sick at the thought of the death penalty, all it is is legalised murder, some people by their very actions resign from the human race but we have the ability to actually gaol them for the term of their life, never to be released, thats one of the really great things Rann has done here, the government can now apply to the courts for a never to be released sentence,for that i thank him.
#54 Judy – you say it so better than me – it’s what I wanted to say
Greg Hunt’s performance goes to what I said yesterday. Why is the Liberal party so thin on real talent across the country?
Honestly, people like Bishop and Hunt are not below the standard of shadow minister [alternative minister]. The more we hear from Turnbull the less impressive he seems.
Not only wont they be elected they shouldn’t be elected.
are below
The ANU report is something.
There is only one conclusion; Workchoices!
58
If that’s all it was, it’s not enough.
We (the country) need to be smarter than that.
would be nice to know the left/right voter position going back another decade to see if this is a long term pendulum.
Think it would be worth a wager on Labor in Gippsland. The John Black analysis in the Oz was crap. Modelling based on opinions of your fly fishing mates? Mumble argues that by-elections go against the Govt – but it didn’t when Kennett resigned. This could be a repeat of Burwood with the momentum carrying Labor to victory. The qualification is that none of the parties have selected a candidate who is clearly identified with local interests. And I understand that grassroots campaigning on the Labor side has been less than enthusiastic.
Onimod @ 59
Well you don’t need to be too smart to realise that Howard was screwing workers.
60 Kina
Is it measuring how people are changing of the relative positioning of parties – I’m not sure there’s a baseline to conclude anything about?
JustMe @ 23
Darwin TV spinning tonight that there will be an early election because one of the opposition members is retiring due to ill health.
Thats 5 legislative assembly members looking for an early out, out of a field of 25.
and yes.. the previous CM was asked to go quietly with the numbers against her.
62 No – not at all, but I’m suggesting that if we still voted solely on one of the more selfish issues…well it suggests the scattergun approach of the opposition will eventually trip over another trigger issue.
I’d rather think I’m living in a world where people consider more than personal hip pocket economics. There are plenty of people on this planet who are very happy and humanistically prosperous with a lot less stuff and money than we’ve got.
I don’t want to see the LP climb out of the mire without having to apply some intelligence, but it would be much better long term if they were a more intelligent lot.
Am I too early for informed comment tonight?
William has provided us with some very enlightening data and the opportunity to examine more. Granted it takes time to digest over 80 pages of graphs and commentary but surely the report should be generating more comment than it has today.
I admit I still need more time to analyse what may be suggested in the figures provided but as an overview I am surprised by a number of the graphs.
Sure Workchoices comes through clearly as a big issue as does the environment. But given the recent discussion on petrol prices I cant believe the environment is as big an issue as suggested by the responses in this study. If it was, petrol would be a non-issue and the concentration would be on public transport, alternative fuel technology(note the derision re hybrid cars lately) etc. We would be going beyond petrol price, recognising high prices are inevitable and probably a plus for the environment as other technologies become viable and preferable.
To finish I cannot ignore the Neal/Dela Bosca fiasco. I stated in an earlier thread the smoke was smelly I think now it is identified as hydrogen sulphide! I cannot reconcile how correspondants can find excuses by comparing their actions to murderers. The comparison of extend of wrong does not make a wrong right. To again continue the football analogy is it right that Adam Goodes is not suspended for 3 head high bumps because Barry Hall swung a punch and was much more culpable?
Having just returned from several months absence overseas,and losing contact with political affairs, I saw Greg(?) Hunt on the 7:30 Report tonight. Is he always that stupid? Is he really the environment spokesman? Is he their worst performer?
Thanks onimod but I’m not convinced Workchoices was all about self interest. I think there is research to show that it influenced the vote of a wide range of voters – in particular, older voters who were concerned about the workplace rights of the future generation.
I agree with Winston, the ALP will go very close in Gippsland.
I suspect the ALP primary vote will be down slightly but the Greens will be up. No matter, they will be a preference machine for the ALP.
The problem the Nats will have is leakage from the Libs. Gippsland West is Liberal heartland, it was the safe seat of state opposition leader Alan Brown and is currently a Liberal seat (Bass) in the Victorian parliament. Many Liberals resent having a National MP and may be inclined to dump the Nats in order to elect a Liberal at future elections.
In addition I don’t think you can ignore the boost in the ALP vote because people will feel brassed that McGuaran bailed out 6 months after the last election. People get cranky when politicians force them to the polls without good reason.
Finally I’m sure the PM has been to Gippsland 2 or 3 times since the by-election was announced. It would appear that the ALP’s polling is indicating a possible gain. If it happened the opposition would go feral. I can almost smell the odour of burning flesh in the joint opposition partyroom.
Centre @ 34 –
They deserve capital punishment!
If the cops hadn’t intervened them more of them would have got it.
Sorry, Centre, but I’ve seen too many convicted of murderer eventually proved innocent.
The only way I’d accept it would be if it was voted for in a referendum in which everyones’ vote was recorded and only cops, lawyers, judges and jurors who voted in favour could arrest, prosecute and convict, and if it was later proved there had been a miscarriage of justice all those involved in the conviction shared the condemned’s fate. It’ll never happen.
Can those wishing to discuss Gippsland please do so on the Gippsland thread.
66 colin
sorry – I’m busy today/tonight – it’s up to you!
Moving house this week – reducing my carbon footprint.
So this must be the Underbelly/binge drinking/Greg Hunt thread? Get me out of here.
A question after reading the report.
Why did Labor not win the 2001 election?
Sceptic @69, the Gippsland West you refer to is in McMilan and Flinders, not Gippsland. You can check the maps at http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2008/gippsland/boundaries.htm
My favourite question in the AES study is the one that asks whether voters voted below the line in the Senate. The answer is always 12%, when the actual number is 5%. Simon Jackman did a paper pointing out that this difference can never be explained by sample error. Either people lie or the sample is biased.
Given that filling out an AES survey is as time consuming as voting below the line, I go for the biased sample. Not enough to discredit the exercise of the survey, but enough to always make you think about whether your finding could be affected by the sample. I always find the answers to Senate questions somewhat odd in the AES survey.
Antony, think there is another explanation (not about Gippsland, coz that’s on another thread). I think that not everyone is as engaged with elections as you (and we) are and in a survey conducted some time after the election can’t actually recall what they did when voting for the Senate. So given that there is a choice, some answers will be randomly distributed.
I’ve got to agree Greg Hunt was woeful on 7.30 Report tonight! And this turkey is one of Costello’s chief backers? No wonder Captain Smirk never got anywhere near ousting Howard.
AG,
The biased sample sound very plausible. If ever I find my myself having to response to a long survey I just plough on – tick, tick tick – ops got that wrong – just keep going.
It could easily tickle a 5% baseline up to 12% with type I errors.
Antony
I noted your comments a week or so ago discounting internet blogs , I have a couple of counter points.
1) The AES study, note the graph that shows the steady increase in internet usage to obtain information.
2)Consider ‘getup’, there activities were only possible because of the internet.
3) Lot of stuff here http://tokblog.org/
Judy Barnes & Mayo F,
I would only support the death penalty – only for horrific murder and proven 100% without any doubt. I you haven’t seen Underbelly, make sure you do, you might change your mind? They put down dogs for attacking people, these animals are much worse. Also it would save taxpayer dollars and probably act as a better deterrent.
I just saw part 2 of Corby on 9. Oh no, I sense another Lindy Chamberlain!
AG, another thought re Senate voting below the line. I don’t think there is necessarily a correlation between filling out surveys and voting below the line. I’m not sure that those who vote below the line do so because they have an obsession with ticking boxes. In many cases (including my own) it is a deliberate decision to cast an individual vote which isn’t dictated by how-to-vote cards.
Greg Hunt knows, just like his party, that a cut in the excise would only save drivers a couple of bucks a week and is a cheap populist policy. He almost addmitted as much, by not knowing what to say, on the 7.30 Report.
Antony
I agree with you that the sample may be biased in this question and also in the response to the use of how to vote cards (same graph). Having spent many elections handing out these cards I have had probably no more than 2 people talk to me about the distribution of preferences for the Senate or State Upper House if they follow the card. Whilst you can never tell what people actually put on their voting slips there are three types of voters. Those that take all cards, those that take one and those that take none. None of these groups stand out as below the line voters in the Upper Houses.
It is the ones who want to talk who are the ones who want to go beyond the simple card recommendations.
I believe the responses to these questions are actually the people who want to appear thoughtful and not following like sheep, who respond they think for themselves. The reality is probably in the cubicle they take the quick and easy way out.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/24/2284789.htm?section=justin
Hunt:
“Do you do as the rest of the world has done and look at vehicle emission standards or cleaner cars, or do we become the only country in the world to put a new tax, a petrol tax of 10, 20 or 30 cents a litre on fuel, which is unlikely to have any real impact on emissions?”
HA!
Europe had generally moved in the direction of taxing vehicles on engine capacity, particularly in Scandinavia.
You know, like a luxury car tax…
I just love the way pollies ‘call for a debate’ instead of just putting their position down on the table and waiting for the response. It’s in the same mode of idiocy whereby Hockey can’t tell us what any opposition policy might be, just in case the country might benefit from it – better to save it up for a rainy day or something.
Freaking idiots.
Oops sorry antony I meant I dont agree with a biased sample
Progressive, i think it was one of the worse performances i’ve seen from someone who is supposed to be handling the portfolio being commented on, it was worse than pathetic, he was way out of his depth and Kerry didnt let him off the hook neither.
Mayoferal, if they were going to execute Von Einam i would be the first one demonstrating outside the prison waving my anti death penalty banner, i’m satisfied that he will never be free to hurt another young lad again, we owe that to the 5 lost boys.
Winston, this is one old dear, who though an avowed leftie, desperately wanted a change of government for my grandies sakes, it’s not going to make much of a difference for me — except for the satisfaction of a better, more humane caring OZ for my young ones, i want them to develope a social concience, respecting the wide range of people who share our wonderful country– instead of the wedged racist society that was fostered under Howard.
Charles,
Yes, I did note the graph, but you really should look at the numbers and not be hypnotised by the slope of a graph.
On whether voters used the internet to get news and information on the election, 5.3% said many times, 5.8% said on several occassions, and 8.8% said once or twice. Half said they didn’t, and another quarter didn’t have the internet.
In response to ‘Did you follow the campiagn on the internet’, it was 6.6% a good deal, 8.9% some and 13.0% not much. 71.4% said not at all. And these answers from a survey that is probably biased in favour of those interested in politics.
They are still tiny numbers compared to the US. The big difference in Australia is compulsory voting. There is a vast passive mass of Australian voters who in other countries would not vote. I’ve spent the day reading material provided to me for tomorrow’s Microsoft seminar on the internet and politics. It’s all so American specific and about active citizens which is about the American system and its system of primaries and open parties.
Good on ya Judy Barnes.
Colin
There is always an exception, I take all how to votes ( unless I’m real mad with a party and want to let the poor member know) and I always vote below the line. I know which pack I want to put last. Rest assured I wasn’t one of the voters that gave family first a member because all the major parties messed up their preferences.
Even better: Greg Hunt is one of the guests on this week’s Q&A: another 60 minutes of laughter!
Hard times in state deflate Crist’s approval ratings
TALLAHASSEE — Rising gas prices, the falling real estate market and deep state budget cuts have not only brought South Florida’s economy to a crawl, they’ve deflated the once sky-high approval ratings of Gov. Charlie Crist, according to a new Miami Herald poll.
The governor is doing a fair to poor job of handling South Florida issues, according to 52 percent of the people surveyed by Zogby International in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. That compares with 43 percent who say he’s doing a good to excellent job.
http://www.miamiherald.com/516/story/580784.html
Sorry that was for the US election.
Suppose it can’t be fixed.
Antony
I think the interesting thing about the graph was the shape, yes the figures are still low, but the rate of increase has an upward trend.
Did you also note the number that said they would still vote even if they didn’t have to, that figure is a way to get an idea of the bias, I bet there is phone poll on that subject and I bet it is not about 70%.
[Even better: Greg Hunt is one of the guests on this week’s Q&A: another 60 minutes of laughter!]
Hopefully he is asked to reconcile his views on climate change with those of the member for Tangey who is more concerned with climate change on the moon’s of Saturn than on Earth.
Everyone sign this petition concerning the crisis in Zimbabwe:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/save_zimbabwe/6.php?cl=100927982
I leaped before I looked.
Colin @ 85, I’m using biased in its strict statistical meaning. We know from elections that 5% of the population vote below the line, but every AES study comes up with 12% as the answer to the question of whether people voted below the line. In other words, the survey consistently produces a biased estimate of the population mean. Simon Jackman did a very good paper proving that this is not produced by random variation, and in all liklihood is not even not caused by a biased sample. For whatever reason, some people do not give an honest answer to that question. There’s all sorts of speculation you can make, but the cause is something you can’t prove. There’s a whole literature about survey questions and people giving what they think to being the correct answer. This is probably one of them.
Charles
Look at the comparison between those using the internet in 2004 and the increase to 2007 and those attending a meeting through the two election periods. There was a larger increase in the meeting participants from the 2004 election to 2007 even though the internet presence was hammered through the last election.
Probably says real people like to talk to real people rather than interact remotely as we do. Both figures are extremely low and suggests the perceptions we get over the net are not to be relied upon. This would be particularly so on most blog sites that attract a particular reader.
Antony @ 97, is there a link to the Simon Jackman paper?
Progressive, surely they won’t be stupid enough to let Hunt loose on the small screen yet again, especially after tonights dreadful performance, Kerry hung him out to dry without the slightest effort, mind, i DO love that little grin Kerry gives immediatly before moving in for the kill, i honestly cant but help feel sorry for the hapless Hunt.