The latest bi-monthly Newspoll survey of New South Wales state voting intention has the Coalition pulling ahead to a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after they trailed 51-49 in March-April. Morris Iemma’s ratings have worsened still further since the sobering results last time: his satisfaction rating is down two points to 26 per cent and his dissatisfaction is up seven to 63 per cent, while Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell has opened up a 39-32 lead as preferred premier – the first such lead for a New South Wales Opposition Leader since 1992. On the primary vote, the Coalition leads Labor 41 per cent to 32 per cent.
UPDATE: In comments, Antony Green says the headline of this post would read 54-46, but for the fact that Newspoll has “stuffed up the 2PP”:
In 2004 using gross 2PP preferences, of the 24% minor party and Independent vote, 26.9% flowed to Labor as preferences, 18.6% to the Coalition and 54.6% exhausted. Use those numbers then round the percentages up for the exhausted votes, you get a Liberal 2PP of 54%. However, say you excluded the exhausted votes. Then of those minor party and independent votes that had preferences, 59% flowed to Labor and 41% to the Coaltion. Apply those percentages to the minor party vote and you get a Coalition 2PP% of 52%. But that’s the wrong calculation method!!!
However, he also warns that two-party determinations in the context of a New South Wales state election are “meaningless”:
There were 22 of the 93 seats that did not finish as 2PP contests in 2007. On this poll’s primary figures, 27% with other parties and Independents, you can bank on 30 seats not being 2PP contests. On those primary results, Labor losing votes to the Greens would deliver the Liberals seats like Coogee on exhausted preferences even if the Liberal primary vote is unchanged. With optional preferential voting and a very low Labor primary vote, the Liberals get the advantage from exhausted preferences for the first time in two-party contests, and like 1988, you’ll see Labor lose votes in safe seats to Independents. And Labor losing votes to Independents in safe seats does nothing to aid the Liberal 2PP vote but hammers the Labor Party’s ability to campaign or end up with more seats than the Coalition.
That’s scary! Shutdown Turnoff O’Farrell leading in an opinion poll.
It took over a decade to the fix the train services after O’Farrell got hold of them in the Greiner era.
Fortunately, there is plenty of time for the voters to get to know him before the next election and ensure he doesn’t become Premier.
The other Barry thinks the train services have been fixed – that’s a laugh. I suppose voters are also asked to overlook the corruption and stink that surrounds the NSW labor Party. Get real.
Every government has its day.
Some would argue the NSW ALP Government had its day before the last election.
I can’t really see much of a reason to argue for keeping the NSW Government but the alternative is likely to have one regretting the change very quickly.
As far as this poll goes, it’s not particularly surprising. The Iemma Government seems to have very little going for it and O’Farrel is most certainly the least detestable leader the Liberal Party has come up with in its long time in Opposition.
The ALP should begin, in the next year or so, to look at planning a ‘get out of Opposition quick’ route should they lose the next election.
We in N.S.W are stuck with this government until 2011, there’s no getting round it! One hopes Iemma is removed sometime later this year, he takes Costa and some of the other deadwood with him, and a new Premier is installed, someone who at least can give Labor a chance to salvage some of the furniture before the ship completely sinks! John Watkins is probably the best option right now, that’s not saying much, but he at least performs better in the media than duddering Morris!
It’s remarkable it’s so close given the state of the government.
It says a lot about what the electors really think of the opposition, which is not much. For them to be just two points up means they will really have to start spelling out their policies in detail not just rhetoric and spin.
O’Farrell hasn’t convinced me to vote for him, I’ll vote for an Independent.
I live in a safe Liberal electorate on Sydney’s North Shore, it doesn’t matter who I vote for, but I’m seriously considering voting Green in 2011.
I think the government is terminal, we are stuck with them for another 4 years
The capable ones had left – Egan Debus,
We are left with the Costa, Dela Bosca, Iemma
The trains are the worst it had been, Hospital are worst than before, The toll roads are a disaster, whether it is the tolls or the Xcity tunnel
You have to be a one-eye Labor suporter not living in NSW to support them, there just has to be change
Interesting that Labor’s primary is at 32…yet they still translate into 48% TPP. With OPV, this poll probably flatters Labor somewhat, as I can’t imagine as many preferences flowing to them as last time. Against that, the Coalition will probably need 52% as an absolute minimum to win a majority- given the way the seats are drawn- so Labor could still fall over the line on these numbers.
But, you could argue the Liberals in N.S.W should be doing much better than 52:48! O’Farrell is perhaps holding them back! If they replaced him with Mike Baird(for instance), I think their ratings would be much higher!
The alternative for Labor is bringing back Carmel Tebutt to the front bench, even installing her in the leadership team. Nathan Rees and Verity Firth seem to be deserving of promotion, there are no doubt a few on the backbench who could be moved into the ministry! But, the situation for this government looks shockingly terminal!
May I suggest that much of the Government’s problems stem from the division and disunity surrounding the electricity sell off. Given that this matter will probably resolve itself in the next few months, there is plenty of time to change leader, white paint a few policies and basically show up the Libs for the bunch of brain dead, extreme right wing cretins they are.
Tamania recently changed their leader which has resulted in a 10% bounce in the polls.
People like to say and think things are terminal for Labor in NSW. But, the election is not till 2011. A long way to go.
The Piping Shrike @ 4:
What’s this? Almost intelligent commentary from the OO:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23918374-5013945,00.html
Numbers bad for Iemma, worse for Opposition
O’Farrell, temperamentally a pessimist, will be sobered by the fact that, even after a horror run, Iemma could win an election on these Newspoll numbers.
The conclusion from this Newspoll is inescapable – Labor is on the nose. But voters are not yet convinced the Coalition is fit to govern.
#10
You might be right, if the power sell-off was an isolated issue. Problem is there seems to have been one scandal after another for about two years. Iemma hasn’t had any clear air for this entire term, and nearly every senior minister has ‘baggage’. So I don’t know that dumping the leader, or just trying to ride the bad news out, will work anymore.
2011 will be harder for Labor to win than 2007, which they won mainly because the opposition was even worse. Of course, it’s possible the Liberals will implode once again, but if they present a half-competent face, I think the government is gone.
With optional preferential voting, a high level of primary support for the Greens and a (relatively) low level of primary support for the Australian Labor Party, I am wondering how reliable is the estimate of the 2PP vote in this Newspoll. I also agree with the analysis of MDMConnell @ Posts 8 and 12.
Too far out from the next NSW election to matter really but it does show Labor has work to do to regain the ascendency. Being the ruthless Labor machine of NSW such work will be well on the go long before 2011.
Gary, which means Iemma has to be punted eventually, but who do they replace him with? They really could do with a youthful fresh face, free of baggage,someone who is a good media performer too!
I think Imre Salusinszky in the OZ is going overboard in suggesting Labor in other states is also losing its grip. He mentions WA (LOL), Qld and the recent Galaxy Poll (LOL) and Tas (where a marked improvement has taken back) as examples. He maybe right about NSW but he’s drawing a long bow with the others.
I must admit, being a realist and knowing we won’t have all Labor governments in each state forever, having a coalition government struggling in NSW (quite possibly being a one term government) has its attractions. Parties need renewal and NSW Labor probably more so than any other government at the moment.
3 years and a change of Premier to go for the NSW libs… a long time between drinks.
18 John – sounding cocky John.
Posts 14 & 15
Both of you could be correct and most ALP supporters will think (or hope) so. Yet a turn in Opposition for the NSW branch might be the best thing for them since it will mean they have to refresh their depleted ‘talent’ pool and also reshape their perspective on the meaning of good and competent governance in the (once) ‘premier state’.
But the next election isn’t for another 3 years. Do we leave the same bunch of incompetents in place, assuming they’ll lose, so why bother? Or is there at least some attempt to provide vaguely decent government until 2011?
My point is, why wait until opposition to cut out the deadwood and revitalise Labor’s talent pool? Do it now! There are some decent people on the backbench, even a few of Iemma’s ministers aren’t all bad!
Try 17 David. I tend to agree with you. By 2011 they will have governed for about 15 years I think. Probably past thier use by date, Still things can still happen in 3 years, good and bad for both sides.
If anyone thinks that the NSW ALP hard heads are interested in a short period of opposition to renew and refresh, then they are smoking and inhaling. The difficult decisions wil be made in good time before the next election is due.
23 Greensborough – that’s a given.
#8: There is no way the ALP can win government with a primary of just 32% and OPV.
Of course James you are assuming it will be that way next election. Not necessarily a correct assumption.
The NSW Labor government has been living on borrowed time for quite while now … from well before the last election. It is just that the Libs very kindly loaned them that time. If John Brogden had not imploded, the last state election in NSW would have been a close run thing. The Iemma government has too much baggage to survive past the next election, they were lucky to survive last time, the government is in a terminal state, and frankly they just can’t get it right. But, looking at the pendulum, I can’t see how a coalition majority government can be elected, close but not there, with a lot of independents holding the balance of power. The smart ministers would probably be thinking about jumping to canberra in 2010. Despite it being three years out, the NSW libs are probably starting to smell victory and once the momentum is there it will be hard to resist. Where the ALP need to be wary is that the NSW state party may drag them under in 2010.
On another point, I have often suspected that the ALP hard heads chose a 93 seat parliament on the basis that it was hard for them to lose – more votes locked in coalition safe seats compared to 99 or 109. Any thoughts?
Anyone writing off either party at this tage of the game is guessing at best and to think it will spill over into the federal sphere flies in the face of history. Howard stayed in power while his state mates lost powere in all states and territories.
I’m a member of the ALP, have been for about 12 years, honestly I couldn’t care less whether this mob is re-elected. I’m just glad I live in Queensland so I don’t have to make a desicion about supporting them, volunteering for them or even voting for them.
re Dovif @ # 7
Dovif,
Welcome Back.
I love your comments. You seem to have forgotten the Greiner and Fahey Governments.
TRAINS. As a regular train traveller, it is obvious that the train services in Sydney have vastly improved since Fahey was voted out in 1995. I have lived in Sydney for 27 years and the worse period for trains in that time was when Fahey was Premier. The timetable introduced in 1992 didn’t allow time for trains stop at stations to pickup and setdown passengers. The only way cityrail could operate the trains with that timetable was to skip scheduled stops everyday. On the line I live on, my morning service was usually cancelled “for today only” 4 days per week. The trains that did eventually stop to pick up passengers were so crowded that people ended up sitting on other peoples laps because there was no standing room left. The single deck red rattlers (built in the 1920s) that were still in use at this time had a lower carrying capacity than the double deck carriages that are used. The evening was even worse; there were no trains out of the city on the city circle lines after 8pm, even though the timetable claimed that trains ran until about midnight.
Here are some tips to refresh you memory.
1. Find a copy of the Christie Report into Railways and read about the rundown of periodic maintenance during that time. Google will find a copy this report.
2. Find some Sydney newspapers, such as the SMH, from 1992 and read about
the disastrous new train timetable. The expert imported from the UK had only worked on systems with rubber tyres and assumed that cityrail trains had the same short stopping distance. I haven’t able to find these through Google, so you may have to visit a library that archives old newspapers or a library that has FACTIVA database.
“Toll roads are a disaster”. I agree with you on this point. When the Greiner government converted the F4 Freeway to the M4 Motorway by placing a toll on it at Silverwater, the surrounding roads, Parramatta Rd, Victoria Rd, and James Ruse Drive became gridlocked.
The Liberal’s M2 Motorway was called the road to nowhere and was losing money when it first opened. It wasn’t until the Carr Government built the Gore Hill Freeway, did it become profitable. A northwest railway should have been built instead of the M2. I have long suspected that the M2 agreement has a clause preventing competition from a rail service for its first 20 years of operation.
I can assure have two eyes; would not consider myself to be a Labor supporter; and live in NSW and done so all of my life. In fact I was a financial member of one of the coalition parties for twenty years and handed out HTVs to get Greiner elected in 1988.
You may desire a return to coalition chaos, but count me out – I learn from my mistakes.
BTW: Just in case you think Barry “shut down turn off” O”Farrell had nothing to do with the Railway and Tollway shambles of the Greiner and Fahey years, he was Chief of Staff to Transport Minister, Bruce Baird, from 1988 to 1992.
#31 All fair enough but
a) People have short political memories- they didn’t dump all of the Wran/Unsworth baggage on Bob Carr in 1995. You can only drag out the ghosts of previous governments for so long.
b) Labor’s been in power for 13 years, which makes it a pretty long bow to lump existing problems onto anybody but them. Changing from Carr to Iemma allowed them to pull off the “We’re starting to get on with the job” line one more time in 2007, but surely not any more? And you can’t blame Nick Greiner for such delights as the Cross city tunnel.
If this was a government going for its second, or even third, term this wouldn’t be so bad. I just feel that constant scandal + 16 years in power (by 2011) + no John Howard to kick around anymore + general ‘it’s time’ factor + half-decent opposition (maybe?) makes it very tough indeed to turn around.
Barry
My train is delayed at least once a week,
I have been stucked on a train for 3 hours without moving because the state government had not fixed Signal stations are not lighting proved.
3 years ago, they cancelled 4 services an hour, now they tell us that they are giving us 2 back, becuase the trains are OVERCROWDED, isn’t it amazing? populations grows
Train on my line takes 6 more minute to get to the city today (I live 20 min to city) than 10 years ago (same amount of stop), because the government want to report more train is on time
The unionized work force was found to be the most inefficient in the world, worst than the like of Brazil, Thailand etc. So now fare will rise 15% this year to cover their wages
Keep living in your utopia under labor, while the rest of us live in the real world
Keep
Whenever people talk about NSW being the first Labor government to fall fail to mention that it’s the most recent state/territory government to face an election, and won’t face the polls again until 2011. So if the ALP is safe from any serious risk of election defeat for just under three years, they’re doing pretty well, regardless of bad polls in NSW.
Barry
At least the Liberal government did some infrastructure work in their 8 years, let see what Labor has done in 15?
the M4 and M5 rebate will cost about 95 bn, meaning we have no money to upgrade the M4, the split bridge or any other infrastructure work
M5 east – M5 was built with the ability to become a 6 lane road , the M5 east tunnel was late and can only ever be a 4 lane road. The harbour bridge was built to cater for future expansion, people that long ago had some foresight, I guess Labor know that NSW had stop expanding
X city tunnel, almost gone broke, no one uses it, toll too high, government being sue, great work.
Normally if a government does nothing, no infrastructure work, they cannot complain about the faults in the work. That is the only thing this incompetent government had done in 15 years. You are saying this is a good thing?
Better to get the news from the electorate now than 12 months out from an election.
I just love reading Barry’s comments. I suspect he is really Barry Unsworth in disguise. I doubt there is anyone that lives in NSW who actually thinks the rail and roads in NSW have improved in the last 13 years.
If Barry thinks the electorate is going to remember or care what Greiner and Fahey did 16 years ago (this is how long it will be in 2011), I think he is living in Pixieland.
I also don’t buy the argument that the ALP can bring in a new face and be reelected in 2011. You usually get one chance to do this. Iemma was that chance. The ALP would not only have to get rid of Iemma, they would need to get rid of Costa, Della Bosca, Tripodi, Sartor, Meagher et al. This government has the smell of death about it and it is not going to improve over the next 3 years.
Contrary to what others are saying a 52:48 result in favor of the opposition 3 years out from an election is bad news for the government. They’ve hemorrhaged 4% since the March 2007 state election. From now on, it is more than likely that they will continue to descend while the Libs do the converse. I’ll put money on Labor going down in NSW, big time.
PJ #12, I didn’t think that piece was too bad. But I still think the media make out Iemma to be too much a victim of fate rather than actually driving much of it. He is intent on using the electicity privatisation to break from the unions as has happened in the other Labor states and I think the sacking of Della Bosca has helped towards this in the long run.
I see this as work in progress. Maybe its fantasy but I think he is now through the worst. The fact that the coalition can, even now, barely pull ahead, must make one wonder if the two party system is still operating.
stuart @ 37 :
There is at least one instance where the opening of a new road has made life a lot easier for me. I live in the outer west of Sydney and the M7 is just fantastic. I know you pay a toll but it cuts the time of the journey either north or south by a fair margin.
From my home in the west to the airport was a minimum of 75 minutes. With the M7 it is now only 40 minutes.
You can go on about how the government in NSW is so bad, but can anyone here tell me any detailed policies the opposition have released.? What are the solutions they are offering.? You can say that they will be better than what we have, but until you know exactly what they will be doing to solve these problems they have not convinced me to vote for them.
From a view outside NSW it seems the Lib party there is faction ridden mainly with the right vs hard right. People may not like Labor in NSW but they need to take a hard look at what the alternative is. What are their policies? Will they be able to implement the policies if elected given their factions? If it would be a moderate Lib Government and not sell off everything it can lay its hands on (like Kennett), it would probably be OK. I know the Electricity Privatisation is on the go now, but a Lib gov’t would not stop there.
O’Farrell may be able to present a better public image than his predecessors but it is policies and what the party stands for that is the most important. The party machine with all its rivalries will still be in control.
The Libs have to reform before they can govern properly. They seem to be like their Fed counterparts – trying to take a shortcut to power without willing to do the hard yards. They seem to be waiting for lemma to fall over rather than making themselves a viable alternative.
sondeo,
Good points. I also suggest that a lot of the alleged hopelesness of the Government relates to Sydney. Clearly, Sydney has been the destination of choice for many immigrants and basically may have reached the limits of what growth can be economically achieved.
At the last State election “The Terror” campaigned relentlessly against Labor but they got up. In the regions the anti Labor feeling is nowhere near as drastic.
I just think there needs to be a wider perspective than the inner suburban whingers that write for the papers.
GG @ 42 : A lot of the problems with the rail system affects the outer suburbs more due to the longer travel times….if a train is delayed then the commuter is delayed or late for work.
Where I work is a 35min, 26km drive by car. The same trip to go by public transport means a bus, train, change trains to different line, then another bus to work. Total time is over 90min from the time I leave home to when I arrive at work. When you compare 70min a day with 180min a day travel time you can see why people want to use their cars to get to work.
I think a lot of the anger aimed at the NSW govt is actually people feeling so much frustration with life in general. I may be wrong and this is only an opinion of mine from general observations and not any scientific research.
Frustration not from any single issue but the combination of many things. The cost of fuel up, the train was late again, fares to rise again, my bus was late ,my mortgage has gone up, the rates have gone up,the phone has gone up, water has gone up, I have to pay to wash my car or do it by by the bucket, food has gone up,you have to barricade your house, your kids have to be watched 24/7,we have druggies evrywhere……..etc
To some extent the MSM and in particular the “Daily Terrorgraph” plays on this frustration by sensationaliziing stories and themes that suit their agenda. I’d be interested to hear what others feel.
Folks, just ignore the 2PP figure. It is meaningless. There were 22 of the 93 seats that did not finish as 2PP contests in 2007. On this poll’s primary figures, 27% with other parties and Independents, you can bank on 30 seats not being 2PP contests. On those primary results, Labor losing votes to the Greens would deliver the Liberals seats like Coogee on exhausted preferences even if the Liberal primary vote is unchanged. With optional preferential voting and a very low Labor primary vote, the Liberals get the advantage from exhausted preferences for the first time in two-party contests, and like 1988, you’ll see Labor lose votes in safe seats to Independents. And Labor losing votes to Independents in safe seats does nothing to aid the Liberal 2PP vote but hammers the Labor Party’s ability to campaign or end up with more seats than the Coalition.
It will be like following a UK election, where some seats are Labor-Conservative contests, others are Labor-Liberal, and rural seats are Conservative-Liberal contests. That’s what the next NSW election will be, different party contests in different seats. On this poll’s primary votes, the Liberals would end up in a much better position than any analysis of 2PP would suggest.
The 2PP figure is just a book-keeping device that allows you to order seats on a 2PP axis. But it has nothing to do with the result of the election if the seats aren’t lined up on that axis in the first place.
Antony – slightly off topic (and I beg your indulgence here Billbowe):
For the benefit of other readers, there was a shindig in the circular city today, the Microsoft Politics and Technology Forum. Quite depressing all round – no streaming of the conference, it was a technological dead end zone. Matt Bai, the guest speaker, seemed to completely and utterly fail to understand the consequences of compulsory voting on the utilisation of the net for political activity, and for a forum that spoke a hell of a lot about political blogging, they didnt have a single political blogger on the panel… you sort of get the drift.
But thanks to the efforts of Nick Hodge with his webcam streaming to Ustream.tv via a bluetooth link to his phone (i.e. getting around the pure incompetence of the whole thing) – a few of us got to see the action… or what passed for it in glorious 320×200!
Suffice to say that in the second section, of which Antony was a panel member (with Messrs Hockey, Bartlett and Kate Lundy for a bit), well he thankfully stole the show.
The cracker line was when some Greens guy got up and started whinging essentially about political parties not being accountable – to which Antony interjected (re:The Greens) “How are you accounted for”.. noting that they weren’t actually in government, didn’t have any responsibility and weren’t really in a position to be throwing shit like that.
The poor guy never really recovered.
Made my day it did!
So congrats Antony – and it was nice to see you get the largest round of applause. And to think you were wondering why you were even there.
Thank Christ you were, because if you weren’t, I never would have gotten that hour of my life back (and I bloody well would have tried to).
I’d also say the 2PP on those primaries is 53.5%, NOT 52%.
At the 2007 election, Green preferences split 41% to Labor, 12% to Coalition and 47% exhausted. All other minor parties split 21% Labor, 27% Coaltion and 52% exhausted.
You apply those preferences and weight up for the exhuasted votes, the best estimnate of 2PP is 53.5%. Even just using the gross 2PP numbers I get 53%, so I don’t know what calculation Newspoll are using. I might give them a phone call tomorrow and give them some tips.
Actually Possum, talking to the guy afterwards, we were actually talking at cross purposes. He was talking about accountability in the sense of keeping Green supporters and members abrest of what their elected representatives were up to, where I was talking about it in the sense of responsibility for what comes out of the law making sausage factory.
It’s always easy to be pure and stick to principle when you’re in opposition, which is why i sniped at that point. I think Clover Moore has discovered that since she has been Lord Mayor of Sydney and has had to defend her own decisions rather than criticise others. But in the end, the point he was making about GreenBlog was a different one than I responded to.
Bloody hell Antony – now you’ve completely ruined it for me!
Was it just my peculiar 320×200 view of the thing, or was it really the case that quite a few people (with the notable exception of the actual pollies) didnt quite get the whole consequences of voluntary voting on technology use for politics generally?
I heard a rumor that the New South Wales government is planning to relax gun laws and why to appease the shooters party so to get the privatisation of power through the upper house. Pathetic politics and decision making on both fronts.
Oh dear, Newspoll have stuffed up the 2PP.
In 2004 using gross 2PP preferences, of the 24% minor party and Independent vote, 26.9% flowed to Labor as preferences, 18.6% to the Coalition and 54.6% exhausted. Use those numbers then round the percentages up for the exhausted votes, you get a Liberal 2PP of 54%.
However, say you excluded the exhausted votes. Then of those minor party and independent votes that had preferences, 59% flowed to Labor and 41% to the Coaltion. Apply those percentages to the minor party vote and you get a Coalition 2PP% of 52%. But that’s the wrong calculation method!!!
This poll is 2% better for the Coaltion than reported, though I still stick by my earlier point that 2PP analysis misses the point in analysing swing.