Essential Research: 58-42

Essential Research’s latest weekly survey features questions on refugees, climate change and the Olympics, along with the finding that federal Labor holds a 58-42 lead over the Coalition. Read all about it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

389 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  3. CC @49,
    I certainly agree with the first and last sentences of your post. It’s the bits in between that I am less certain about.

  5. Chris Curtis Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
    There is no recession. There will be no recession. Labor will win the next Commonwealth election with more seats than it has now. Just wait for the real reform of the tax system and the real education revolution and the real federal-state reform, to mention just three vote-winners coming up.

    And Chris I have a bridge for sale that would be just perfect for you!!!

  7. madk

    The anyone but Talcum clan is about 50% of the Fibs, if they can get their next candidate over the line after Brenda, it could be anyone. But The Mad Monk is my bet.

  11. is rudd being uber machievellian by sending

    1the elder statesman dolly (dont laugh) o/s to deprive the Fibs of guidance and stability
    2the elder statesman ‘tank engine’ (damn fine fella) to deprive the nats of same.

    because either way,it is proof of rudd now owning the middle ground and being two steps ahead of the game.

  13. Good to hear Turnbull still blaming Swan for all the interest rate rises this year. He thinks he can’t stop Westpac and ANZ from raising their rates, but he does think Swan can force the RBA to raise them?

    I hope we get much more of this sensible economic analysis from him.

  14. Dyno,

    We’ll see. I’ll be around to take the egg on face if anything I’ve said turns out to be unfulfilled.

    ESJ,

    I don’t need a bridge, but how much do you want?

  17. OK, my two bob’s worth…

    The only hope Costello had was if the RBA put interest rates up and then he could step in and “take control”, deny Climate Change and all the rest of the fanboy stuff that the contributors from The Blog which Shall Be Nameless appear to expect. Now that it looks like interest rates are going down, Costello doesn’t have a leg (peg or otherwise) to stand on.

    Pretty soon we’re going to see that Labor has got it right in the Budget with the tax cuts and, in conjunction with the RBA, our economy will pull out of this international credit mess sooner than other countries.

    The Libs will claim, naturally, that it is all their doing, getting the settings just right, pre-election, for recovery in 2008 a la surviving the Asian meltdown of the last decade. Labor will be able to argue that if they’re to be blamed for the rises, they can take the credit for the falls. Once interest rates start falling, it’ll be

    “Swannee! How I love yer, how I love yer, mmmmmyyyyy dear ol’ Swaneeeee!” from the peanut gallery et al.

    There are a few still glowering with blackened brows about Recession, wishing it upon us, but that’s not going to happen. Our economy is too strong for that. Thanks Peter, for not dropping the ball, now pi$$ off hairy legs, and pick on someone your own size. Gnats, anyone?

    We are about to turn the corner and strike out in front of the rest of the World. It is up to Rudd to tap the new optimism and start telling us how good we, in particular, can be, rather than how rotten things, in general, are.

  18. I do not agree with those who are writing off Unions. Unions do not prosper when the economy is running well and people are in jobs. Then they do not seem relevant to people who do not want to spend money on union dues. This situation reverses in more challenging times.

    There is a place for Unions in a society that wants to remain fair and equitable in the Workplace. But their place is NOT running a Government. Labor has done the right thing in their dealings with Unions, at least in the last few decades.

    The central thrust of Workchoices was to destroy unions due to prohibiting of collective bargaining. Those that think that the Rodent’s workchoices was not far from Labor’s position are missing this point. Also the Safety Net of course was only added by the Libs under duress and is not their true belief.

    Workers will always be the main part of Labor’s demographics. I cannot see them vacating this area and loosing the votes. Labor will always deal with business because that is where the nation’s jobs are generated. This “dealing with business” can perhaps be mistaken for Labor becoming the “business party”. You will also find that good unions will always have the well being of business in mind for the same reason – business generates jobs. They will not want to kill “the goose that lays the golden egg”. But they will still persue the interests of their members, sometimes aggressively.

    I do not see a longterm future for The Libs. One of the reasons is their demographics are ageing, but more importantly the far right is gaining/has gained ascendency. These people only care about their own power and zeal for their own cause, even at the expense of the overall party. They, more than anyone else, are responsible for the decline of this party in recent years. Wherever they go, over time, they seem to destroy overall and not build up. They are closer to a cult than a real political movement. You have only got to be aware of people like Akerman and Bolt to see that.

  19. Bushfire Bill what are you talking about? Nelson has already complained about interest rates going down and how it’s the sign of a bad Government.

    You definitely can’t call that trying to have it both ways can you? If they go up you’re damned… if they go down you’re damned. I presume Nelson would like them to stay where they are now? If so, exactly where does he want them?

    Political opportunism of the worst kind.

  21. I’m with CC I do not think we will be in recession in the next 2 years. Australia GDP is still growing, although slowing but not enough to make it into negative territory. This last 2 weeks has seen an injection of around 1 billion dollars into the economy via the $600 per child handed to each family, haven’t people in here noticed all the shops having large ‘Toy Sales’. Our local Target was full of people spending their bonus, with kids in tow.
    Besides China and India are still growing and buying our dirt.

  23. 69 LTEP – do you have a link? Would love to read that (I don’t doubt you, but would love to send the link to a few mates).

    70 ESJ – you have a problem with unit pricing?

  24. [#62
    Edward StJohn Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 6:23 pm

    au contraire Jovial Monk – the spin has only just begun.]

    I know, been hearing Turnbull’s spin all afternoon 🙂

  25. LTEP @ #69,

    Oh he did?

    So did Shanahan yestwrday, saying the electorate will be “angry and annoyed” at a reversal of RBA policy on interest rates.

    Doubt whether that will stick, though. All people will know is that rates are coming down, just like Swanee said they should.

    Note also on the tax cuts: these were Howard tax cuts originally, with Labor adpoting them. When the cuts looked like poison, you couldn’t find a Lib to say anything nice about them. Expect them now to rename them the “Howard-Costello Tax Cuts”, seeking to bask in the glory.

    Poor fools. Too late, toooooo late.

  27. “That was always Mr Rudd’s plan to slow the economy,” Dr Nelson said.

    “And now the Reserve Bank is in a position, in looking forward, where it is so concerned about the state of the Australian economy that it’s forecasting there may be room to reduce interest rates in the future.”

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24132684-1702,00.html

    This to me, reeks of political stupidity… he wants to get press complaining about the chances of rates coming down? In other words he wants rates to stay where they are or to go up.

  28. Doug,
    So you think the Libs are going to die (which is possible, and I concede there is much truth in your comments about the Liberal Right).
    What do you think business will do, then? Stay out of the political process altogether? I just can’t see it.
    Classic business strategy is to take over the competitor that has a better product than you. If the Liberal product is (as you think) to be permanently rejected by the public, then why wouldn’t business just try to take over Labor?
    It’s not a matter of Labor dealing with business, it’s a matter of Labor becoming a party that is run by business. Which I think is a likely consequence of the Liberals dying.
    Still, as I said to ron earlier, I’ll happily admit to being wrong in 10-12 years time if it hasn’t happened.
    And maybe the Libs won’t die after all. History isn’t linear. Just because the last seven years or so have seen the Liberal tide ebbing, it doesn’t necessarily follow that this will continue. But sure, they’ll have to tame the Right if they are to reverse the current trend.

  29. More than Grocery Watch Eddy, and Peter Martin was upbeat about the Grocery Watch website being very useful indeed!

    Best way to get prices down, break up Woolies & Coles and encourage other retailers to open up here.

  30. Oh yeah Jovial Monk – the Feds are putting on the big bold policy moves – do they actually believe in anything or is it all about appearances?

    Its embarrasing really that there is such a shallow policy agenda to this lot.

  31. 77 LTEP, I guess Nelson and Turnbull are betting people prefer inflation to a “slowdown”. Or they’re in favour of inflation – which is what we would have more of it f the economy didn’t slow down.

    If rates start comming down by the end of the year (which they will IMO) by 2010 you think anyone will care about the last 7 months? SOP long as there is no recession, the ALP will cruise – the slowdown we had to have is hardly a winning slogan for Turnbull.

    Last November did anyone think about what happened in 2005-6?
    Nope.

    the election is a looooong way off.

  32. Jovial
    and allow a level playing field for the tier two guys

    (iga etc)

    and the farmers-more buyers less price ahem agreement

    and the transport companies etcetera etcetera

  33. OK, that just can’t be true. Even Brendon wouldn’t actually say that would he?… It’s gotta be a dodgy report.

    He wouldn’t… would he?

  38. JM,
    The Right has damaged the Liberal brand, no question.
    It could be that the brand dies, but that the sort of things the Liberal Party has traditionally stood for (not neo-conservatism) continue to be advocated by an ongoing party.
    The name of that ongoing party: most likely the Australian Labor Party.

  41. 88 dyno

    Yeah, likely. Read somewhere ALP is now about where Menzies was in 50s, centrist with a bit of a leftwing.

    We didn’t get there by accident, but thanks to Hawke & Keating making brave and momentous decisions. Rudd will continue that in his cautious style.

    You lot need to find your Hawke and/or Keating. Put it that way Pouty Pete would be a disaster–policy lazy. As I have said, I have bet $10 that J. Bishop will lead the Fibs at the next election. She is weird but, but occasionally makes sensible statements, e.g. leading Emo Man from his turn on the ETS policy.

  43. Umm, ESJ, if you were PM right now what would be your top three or four big policy agendas and what would be your broad policies/programs for each? Your pot shotting is quite intriguing and I would be curious to know what you would do if you were in the driver’s seat.
    signed
    curious

  44. William I read your comments at the PollBludger Sister Site.

    You will recall upon your request I laid off commenting on Kirri R .

    I was not without sore provocation including mocking comments about my mother making a mistake in not having an abortion.

    Of course I dont claim to be a saint but I would like to know how exactly I am worse than Kirri R, I think its a reasonable question.

  45. I thought Turnbull was going to start blaming the Labor if rates went down the way he was talking.

    I think they need to change track and start putting things on the global economy – they could blame their inflation on it and rate rises and falls. At least they can get rid of some of the blame and remove some of the accolades to Labor.

    But then – as noted before, if they don’t have anything to do with the economy then what are they good for? CC? ETS? They have nothing to sell.

    Turnbull as a moderate is likely to be the most acceptable to Australians, apart from his off-putting style; but he would be nagged and nit-picked all the while by the Right anytime he looked like moving to the left too much – he would be wearing manacles or risked being undermined. The hard right may be willing to self destruct and lose elections rather than give up their dreams.

  47. Forget it WB… He wasn’t catching anything. So like all good fisherman, he’s changed hooks and is testing different baits

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