• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports that the Liberal internal polling that persuaded Troy Buswell to go showed that even with Buswell as leader the party would have retained Bunbury (Liberal-held but notionally Labor post-redistribution) and won the notionally knife-edge new eastern suburbs seat of Kalamunda. However, they were trailing slightly in the must-win seats of Albany (Labor-held but now notionally Liberal) and Kingsley (northern suburbs, Labor-held, notionally line-ball). A report from Robert Taylor of The West Australian suggests the poll showed them winning all four if Barnett was leader, by a margin of 60-40 in Bunbury. However, Taylor also reports Labor polling is believed to give them a “nice buffer”.
• Independent Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been included in the new shadow cabinet, with the public sector management and government accountability portfolios: smartly chosen in the context of an election campaign that will emphasise Brian Burke and ministerial sackings, but potentially very dangerous thereafter. The formerly estranged Rob Johnson and Graham Jacobs (members for Hillarys and Roe, with the latter set to contest the new seat of Eyre) are back on the board.
• It now seems likely the Liberals will be unable to accommodate Deidre Willmott, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry policy adviser who had to abandon Cottesloe so Colin Barnett could shelve his retirement plans. This leaves the Liberals with a grand total of four female lower house candidates out of the 43 nominated so far: Liza Harvey in the marginal Liberal new northern suburbs seat of Scarborough, Andrea Mitchell and Milly Zuvella in Kingsley and Joondalup further north (respectively line-ball and marginal Labor) and Ruth Webb-Smith in long-shot Kimberley.
• Today’s West Australian reports that outgoing Carine MP Katie Hodson-Thomas is ruing her decision to retire, made on the day Troy Buswell became leader. Hodson-Thomas complained Buswell had made “inappropriate comments” to her in front of male colleagues.
• The West Australian’s Gary Adshead reports that Sue Walker, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Nedlands, is yet to have nominated for the election, prompting speculation she was “throwing in the towel”. Walker responded by telling Adshead that a man had come into her electorate office to say her “life was in danger”, but that “providing there’s nothing that stands between me and the close of nominations, I intend to nominate”.
• Alan Carpenter has announced a re-elected Labor government will spend $160 million rebuilding Albany Regional Hospital, after earlier committing only to a $55 million redevelopment. Albany was won by Labor in 2001 and retained by a 1.4 per cent margin in 2005, but the one-vote one-value redistribution has turned it into a 2.3 per cent Liberal seat by expanding it into rural areas beyond the city limits.
• In other policy news, the Kimberley canal is officially off the agenda of a first-term Liberal government. Word is that the once-bitten twice-shy Barnett will pursue a “small target” strategy.
• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can my read quick overview from today’s email. The upshot is that the Liberals are a better chance than the $4.25 being offered by Centrebet suggests.
UPDATE (9/8/08): The Sunday Times reports Labor polling conducted after the Liberal leadership change shows Labor leading 56-44 in the new seat of Jandakot, which has a notional Labor margin of 3.6 per cent.
#99
The Nats in WA sound like the Greens- they’ll make alot of noise and bluster about not taking preferences for granted, but will inevitably end up giving them to their ideological cousins.
[That’s bizarre. Out of all Labor MP’s, why Ben Wyatt? He replaced a premier in Vic Park, but that’s about it.]
Because one day we will see Ben Wyatt v Christian Porter for the top job in WA. Both have almost identical CV’s, articulate, and each has the ability to attract voters from both parties on the strength of their personalities.
Christian Porter is easily the best performer on the Lib front bench, and Ben Wyatt will make a minister soon enough.
Thanks Skink, if it came from within the house it almost certainly is sexist regardless of which brand it came from.
The Wyatt stuff is really interesting why would Halden do that in a campaign. Don’t know him at all, is he a lost cannon or is he making some kind of point?
I know many see Carps as a complete innocent who would love to leave. I see him more in the ‘will hold on till he is blasted out’ category; his behaviour IMHO is not that of an accidental premier who hates it. He is, as a labor premier should be a Labor Power Broker.
Has anyone noticed that all of Colin Barnett’s media statements since the Election has been called have been held outside of Parliament House.
Here is one example re Stand on Daylight Savings.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/08/11/2331637.htm
Are the Libs frightened of him actually mixing with real people ?
Now this will make the Country outcome look interesting.
[Mr Grylls says the Nationals will give preferences to any local candidates who have genuine plans for regional communities.
“This is Colin Barnett clearly signalling on behalf of all Liberal Party candidates in regional Western Australia that he has no interest in looking at a royalties plan to deliver better infrastructure and better services to Western Australia,” he said.
“Both major parties are focussed on metropolitan Perth.
“Both major parties are focussed on spending the proceeds of the royalty boom on Perth projects and it’s only the Nationals that have a plan to deliver a better infrastructure outcome to regional WA.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/11/2331701.htm
6PR’s State Election Page complete with Audio grabs.
http://www.mytalk.com.au/Stations/Talk/6PR/Pages/StateElection2008.aspx
Bob Maumill’s “Ode” to Alan Carpenter.
http://www.mytalk.com.au/aspx/pages/mediaplayer.aspx?t=audio&w=12165
Tonight’s ABC TV Coverage of the Election.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200808/r280908_1192216.asx
Barnett names a new Chief of Staff the former Liberal candidate, Deidre Willmott.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/12/2332108.htm?section=justin
Frank@83
I would expect the CDP to do a deal with the Libs – they got close in SouthWest last time (except the Nats went to the Greens instead of them, so locked them out) and then look for something from the Nats – or maybe a deal with the Nats and just expect the Libs to come to them first? That might be a clever game plan. Will require some manourvering by the Greens to trip that one up. But then with the redistribution I’m not sure how things will fall this time.
re Ben Wyatt – well liked local MP – he works his electorate hard, appearing at a lot of local functions, helping constituents, as well as being bright, articulate etc. Should be in Cabinet/leadership position. As for Halden, well, I suspect he’s just stirring the pot – but as a former ALP State Secretary, MP and hard man (he faced down the Easson Inquiry, was unapologetic about the petition, and took the fall for Carmen) he may also be setting the scene (if things go pear shaped for WA ALP) for a future transition to Wyatt as Oppn Leader.
Skink – thanks for that – I’d forgotten about the witches.
not that I want to seem nasty but if things do go pear shaped it will be very interesting to see who actually lines up for a stint in opposition, there could be a flood of by-elections as you would expect there are very few cabinet ministers or even the imported carps dream team that are expecting the hard work of opposition this term. Would be very funny.
There is a bit of generational change this election, on Labor’s side, but perhaps unfairly I don’t get a grind and work feel from the dream team.
Govt to extend Trading Hours – sort of 🙂
Sounds like a reasonable comprimise and it’s more than what Barnet has said about only considering.
Also good to se Midland being given Tourist prescint status, considering we have the Swan Valley.
[JOONDALUP, Midland and Armadale will enjoy Sunday trading if Labor wins the state election – and mid-week shopping hours will be extended till 7pm.
As reported in the weekend’s The Sunday Times, Premier Alan Carpenter has back-flipped on full deregulation, instead opting to allow shops to open on Sundays in selected tourism precincts.
Businesses in Joondalup, Midland and Armadale will be allowed to open from 11am to 5pm on Sundays.
Fremantle and the Perth Central Business District will also continue opening their shops on Sundays.
In other changes announced today, a future Labor Government would allow:
Weeknight trading to be extended to 7pm
Electrical and furniture stores will be able to open on Sundays.
Existing tourism precincts of Perth CBD and Fremantle will be able to stay open longer if respective councils want the changes]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24168111-948,00.html
Fels fails to register his new “Party”
[The former Liberal MP Anthony Fels has failed to register a new party, People Against Daylight Saving, to contest the next election.
Less than two weeks ago Mr Fels promised the party would contest a number of Upper House seats, but under Western Australian Electoral Commission rules any new party must be registered at least 30 days before a poll is called.
The MP failed in his bid for Liberal Party preselection earlier this year, and moved an unsuccessful spill motion against Opposition Leader Troy Buswell in June.
Mr Fels says he will still contest his Agricultural Region seat as an Independent, but he is not sure if there will be any other candidates working with him.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/12/2332067.htm
Via LP here is Peter Lambert, the Independent Candidate for Kwinana’s website, which was posted by his daughter.
http://www.peterlambert.info/
You’re doing a fine job there Frank. You’re keeping me in the picture. What’s the feeling on the ground over there? Is there change in the air?
[You’re doing a fine job there Frank. You’re keeping me in the picture. What’s the feeling on the ground over there? Is there change in the air?]
Who knows, if talkback and the readers comments on news websites are a guide, there’s blood for the ALP, but then again it’s the same bunch of idiots who say that regardless.
It’s too soon to know, only the ALP have run Ads atm and have a proper campaign websites with policies published, the Libs site still has as it’s most recent item, Julie Bishop congratulating Colin Barnett for being elected leader, and not one policy that’s been announced in the media is on the site.
During the last Victorian election campaign I lstened to 3AW. Had their announcers and callers been truly representative as to what the voting public were going to do on election day Labor would have been swept from office in a landslide. We know the actual result now, quite the opposite.
I remember reading blogs during the Queensland election. Had they been truly representative as to what the voting public were going to do on election day Labor would have been swept from office up there in a landslide.
During the NSW election The Daily Terror ran their own online polling. The results they got on there would have seen Labor wiped out.
I guess we just have to wait for proper polling.
We may not get any proper polling other than on election day. Unless some of the staffers with us are happy to leaking internal polling. Go on boys you know you want to.
[We may not get any proper polling other than on election day. Unless some of the staffers with us are happy to leaking internal polling. Go on boys you know you want to.]
Sunday Times has already published polling that Jandakot is good for Labor, as William has mentioned here:
“UPDATE (9/8/08): The Sunday Times reports Labor polling conducted after the Liberal leadership change shows Labor leading 56-44 in the new seat of Jandakot, which has a notional Labor margin of 3.6 per cent. ”
Plus there was the audio file I posted yesterday about Swan Hills as well.
Libs to release their costings earlier, so giving Labor more time to find holes 🙂
[The Opposition Leader Colin Barnett says he will release the Liberal Party’s costings earlier than he did for the last election.
In 2005, the Liberals released their costings two days before the election, and Mr Barnett had to defend an error over savings.
Mr Barnett says the party’s costings will be made public towards the end of the campaign, but he says there will be plenty of time for scrutiny.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/12/2332951.htm
ignore everything
we only have one daily newspaper, and it is rubbish
we have only one talkback radio station, and it is rubbish
the Labor Govt have at various times boycotted both, and so both are out for vengeance. The paper today tried to make an issue of the Premier kissing and sniffing babies, and whether he held on to one for a bit too long, and whether it was equivalent to Buswell sniffing chairs. That’s how petty and clueless they are
similarly, any polls are very unreliable, since they seldom Poll very far from the city centre, or with more than 400 samples, so do not reflect suburban and regional voters
difficult to comment on the feeling here.
The snap election call has made Labor look desperate, and the pork-barrelling emphasizes it. Carpenter does not enjoy the same affection as Gallop, and is a bit more of a vegemite politician. He is relying on the booming economy to give him enough momentum, and the fact that he has not really done much wrong during his tenure.
On the other hand the Libs have no talent (recycled a retired leader and co-opted an independent into the shadow cabinet) no policies (except the usual Lib fearmongering over drugs and prostitution), no organization on the ground, and still lots of party-room infighting.
both parties have a bit of an odour round them – Labor of Brian Burke, Libs of Buswell and Crichton-Browne.
no real sense of optimism, like the Fed election, more an apathetic sense that there isn’t much worth voting for, so which do you dislike least? The election can barely hold the front page
Frank, I have noticed Barnett has ditched the canal and daylightsaving is there anything left that he does stand for or is he going to turn up naked on election day?
That trading hours thing is funny. They might be made ‘tourist precincts’ in name, but there’s nothing touristy about Midland or Armadale (or, for that matter, Joondalup). It’d be because they’re down the end of train lines, so every train line would have a Sunday trading area at the end of it. If those places get Sunday trading, then Carousel would want it too (because Cannington’s on the train line too), then Morley and before you know it… Sunday trading pretty much everywhere by stealth. Well, I suppose a referendum didn’t work last time…
strange that Barnett blinked first on Sunday Trading, and now it’s a non-issue. All his little battler shop-owners will be furious.
so in answer to Steve’s question, there is not much that he stands for, only a few head-in-the-sand negatives like bongs and brothels
Maybe Barnett is trying to do a Rudd. Get rid of contentious policies and accept those your opponents espouse that have proven popular with voters..
huh?
when did Rudd do that?
the contentious policies at the Fed election were Work Choices, Mandatory Detention, Kyoto, emissions trading, inflation, interest rates.
Rudd has taken action on all those, and always travelling in the opposite direction to Howard
[so in answer to Steve’s question, there is not much that he stands for, only a few head-in-the-sand negatives like bongs and brothels]
He’s still got P**fter bashing to go – wait for the raising of the age of consent between gays and the re-criminalisation of the deed.
For our Eastern States Bludgers, this was what Skink was referring to when Paul Murray Compared the Premier kissing and sniffing a baby to Troy’s Chir sniffing antics.
To quote Skink:
[The paper today tried to make an issue of the Premier kissing and sniffing babies, and whether he held on to one for a bit too long, and whether it was equivalent to Buswell sniffing chairs. That’s how petty and clueless they are]
http://blogs.thewest.com.au/general/paul-murray-is-baby-sniffing-going-too-far/
“He’s still got P**fter bashing to go”
So I take it that a P**fter who likes a couple of bongs before he visits a brothel is not welcome.
Nope. Especially not if you want to do it on a Sunday. 😉
Rudd to Campaign in WA.
[Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will go the West Australia on Wednesday to campaign for the upcoming state election, with the Liberals predicting his appearance will prove a negative for the Carpenter government.
Mr Rudd has flown to Perth from Singapore after a six-day Asian trip, during which he attended the Olympic Games in Beijing, began talks on a trade agreement with South Korea and honoured Allied soldiers at Singapore’s Kranji War Cemetery.
WA Premier Alan Carpenter said on Sunday he had invited Mr Rudd to visit Perth during the campaign for the September 6 state election.
The prime minister is expected to spend several hours on the campaign trail with Mr Carpenter on Wednesday morning (WST).
Acting federal Opposition Leader Julie Bishop, the member for inner-Perth electorate of Curtin who is standing in for Brendan Nelson while he is overseas, said Mr Rudd had “some very serious questions” to answer on his return to Australia.
She said the announcement by the Reserve Bank that it expected job losses of 100,000 in coming months was the most concerning issue, particularly as Labor’s May budget contained treasury predictions of 134,000 job losses within 12 months.
The federal government is still to reveal whether the figures are separate, and whether it is possible that 250,000 people may soon be out of work, Ms Bishop says.
“Mr Rudd must tell West Australians whether the 134,000 job losses will occur in this state – and if so where and in which parts of the economy and in which businesses,” she said.
“He has to answer why there was a $2 billion tax hike on gas condensate – a $2 billion tax hike on the North West Shelf which we believe will be passed onto domestic gas users in this state.
“And he must also answer why he has done nothing to reduce grocery or oil prices as he promised to do at the last election.]
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=505448
Just a few thoughts
The Libs under Barnett seem to be going back to the old conservative staple diet which may have appeal to some punters.
I’m waiting for the “women at home” announcement which was forecast by Barnett in his brothels announcement where he referred to the electorate not wanting brothels near “your wife and children”.
Maybe he also intends to amend the one vote one value to limit voting to middle aged angry blokes.
It seems the local paper editor wants to be king maker having missed out in getting rid of Gallop in 2005 and continues to run what can only be described as a pretty severe anti government line.
Mates of Burkie are running the anti carpenter line on talkback and in comment pieces in the paper.
The government has had it problems but I think wading through most of the very subjective analysis to get somewhere near the facts proves to be the most difficult task.
All we need now is a WA version of the O’Reilly Factor.
The Greens must be mad to direct preferences to the Libs if they think the Libs will ban Uranium Mining.
[ELEANOR HALL: The Greens Party in Western Australia is threatening to direct its preferences to the Liberal party in order to pressure Labor to toughen its stance on uranium mining. The Carpenter Government has allowed exploration of uranium in Western Australia but not mining.
And while the Liberals are hardly likely to be more sympathetic to the Green’s demands for a ban, the election is looking closer than expected and that is putting the Greens in a strong bargaining position.
In Perth, David Weber reports.
DAVID WEBER: The Opposition hasn’t detailed its election policy on uranium mining, but the Liberal Leader’s position is known. Colin Barnett supports it and last week, he repeated his belief that the world was going to look to nuclear power to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
WA Greens MLC Giz Watson says her party wants uranium mining banned altogether.
GIZ WATSON: I think this election is going to be close than anybody thought, even a week ago. And if there is a Barnett Government we know Barnett is a full supporter of uranium mining and we would see an explosion in uranium mines here in the state.
DAVID WEBER: Doesn’t it stand to reason then that there’s no way that you’d be preferencing the Liberals above Labor because the Liberals are supportive of uranium mining.
GIZ WATSON: Look, our preferences are still being negotiated and those decisions are yet to be made. We are using this opportunity to put the maximum pressure on the Labor Party.
DAVID WEBER: Is it possible that it will be a seat by seat issue and not a blanket preference deal?
GIZ WATSON: That’s always a possibility and this is a very short sharp election and the negotiations are intense in regards to preferences. So it’s entirely possible that we could go that way or we could do an across the state arrangement. It’s still not decided.]
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2332920.htm
The WA Greens site :-
http://wa.greens.org.au/
So if because of Greens public voicing of these issues sending mixed vibes to voters re Labor , or because of direct Greens prefs to Liberals , and Barnett gets in who supports Uranium mining , (whereas Labor presently suports explorotion , without yet a mining decison) , then Greens ar going to look naeve in handing government to an unambiguoysly pro mining Party
Negotiations should hav been done privately , and then make an announcement of a decison whatever it is
[then Greens ar going to look naeve in handing government to an unambiguoysly pro mining Party]
Plus the facts the Libs have a very tough anti=drugs policy as well.
VERY bad move on the Green’s behalf, will alienate a lot of their traditional supporter base as well.
Basically the Greens are good at posturing and pathetic at politics. That’s why they are irrelevant after all these years.
[Basically the Greens are good at posturing and pathetic at politics. That’s why they are irrelevant after all these years.]
Correct, as it was the Green’s amendments to the wording of the referendum question on Retail Trading Hours at the last State Election, which ensured it got defeated.
Frank,
While you are around, I would like to say thanks for all your efforts on this site. Your WA perspective is much appreciated by your fellow Bludgers as is your terrier endevours to post interesting and relevant links.
Being an ALP member, you rock. However, if anyone from the other side wants to get involved, then Frank has certainly set the standard.
This public pref negotiation on prefs almost inevitably may lead to Barnett (late)shtting th door on greens as Libs will not reverse pro mining , and then forse Greens perhaps to “save face” to offer some split tickets , trather than all to Labor (thereby “helping” Barnett via Greens leakages , who Greens reely do not want to win)
[Being an ALP member, you rock. However, if anyone from the other side wants to get involved, then Frank has certainly set the standard.]
Gee Thanks 🙂 /me blushes
But I do note that “Buster”, who came in on this post the other day accusing me and SeanofPerth of having “a love in between ALP Staffers”(which I’m not) has not been sighted since.
Is it because there are very few conservative posts who are unable to put forward their case without resorting to cheap barbs and recycling Liberal Party Talking Points ?
“Is it because there are very few conservative posts who are unable to put forward THEIR CASE resorting to cheap barbs and recycling Liberal Party Talking Points ? ”
Either there Liberal case was so shallow you heard th lot in just a few posts , or th quality and policy soundness of yous WA Labor posters over yonder embarassed them
Seriously , I do not think Liberals actualy know what they reely stand for at moment , having had Howard take them down a ‘very consevative slant’ to electoral oblivion , suspect they ar looking around at th ashes of there philosaphys , and trying to piece something together that sounds credibile (outside of free enterprise and freedom of th individual motharhood statements
[(outside of free enterprise and freedom of th individual motharhood statements]
Which isn’t evident in Barnet’s policy on Retail Trading Hours of “thinking about it” and not going for full de-regulation, so as to not offend the all powerful “Independent Grocers Association” who who have a monopoly on opening when the others are shut via the IGA/Farmer Jacks supermarket outlets.
Frank , thats perhaps called none core disposable free enterprise policys , when those donors amke big contributions Byu th way echo others here regarding your info
Also I’d stress its always been “fair and balanced” , just th way we all like it , so those liberal posters “Buster” and SeanofPerth didn’t know a good thing
If Labor can win this election that will be the two most conservative electorates out of the way for a awhile, NT and WA. I suspect the next very big test will be NSW and I don’t think Labor will pass that one unless something remarkable occurs.
[so those liberal posters “Buster” and SeanofPerth didn’t know a good thing]
Actually SeanofPerth is an ALP’er like me – think I bumped into him at the ALP bash at the old Midland Workshops at the last Federal Election – he was one of Sharryn Jackson’s campaign workers.
Frank, Mesmeralda said she thought Rudd entering the election campaign would be a negative for Labor over there, what do you think?
Nope ive never worked for Sharryn or the ALP I am in the seat of Ocean Reef. I am not even an ALP member anymore.
Btw this new retail policy is a joke, very disappointing from both sides. I wonder if the west will make a big deal out of it, if they do they are hypocrites considering they are one of the biggest spreaders of misinformation in the trading hours debate
I think Rudd is viewed as very distant from WA over here, he sort of doesnt fit in, I dont think it will harm or benefit Carpenters campaign, it would certainly help if they jointly announced funding for an airport rail link or something, otherwise whats the point.
What about Nelson Sean, would he help Barnett?
[Nope ive never worked for Sharryn or the ALP I am in the seat of Ocean Reef. I am not even an ALP member anymore.]
Apologies about that, got you confused with Hossen12.