US election minus 54 days

A thread for the discussion of the American elections, now a little less than eight weeks away.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

489 comments on “US election minus 54 days”

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  1. hit enter too quick

    so yes McCain is right in theory and you’re disappointed , however Obama has copied , but usually when you utilise tax cuts , rate decreases & for ‘left ‘ people capital & infrastructure expenditure to boost demand in a recesion ….you ar NOT ALREADY BROKE or with potential 15 trillion debts & massive trade deficits already from good times!

  4. Adam

    As weather permitted, the US continued with conventional bombing of Japanese cities after Nagasaki. Eg I believe Kumagaya & Isezaki were both heavily bombed post-Nagasaki.

    However, the problem with your argument in any event is that it presumes that if the bombs hadn’t been dropped it would have been necessary to invade Japan. I know we have Ron’s authority for this but … I thought the conventional wisdom was that the Japanese were willing to surrender from at least mid-July, the sticking point being the allies’ demand for an ‘unconditional’ surrender (ie no guarantees about the emperor).

    I doubt it is possible to conclude whether dropping the bombs reduced the eventual number of dead or not. I am inclined to think it did not. As I said previously, I do have my doubts as to whether it materially shortened the duration of the war. However it is not my field.

    On the other hand at least I am not reduced to using Wikipedia as authority!

  5. my post #349 is abit embarassing exposing Obama’s economic rationalism is McCain-lite , that was th purpose

    Obama is “delaying without any time limit” tax cuts for rich …which is no promise to do anything as usual , but thats not where big expenditure money is

    Obama has copied McCain on middle income tax cuts and THESE ar buig monies out of an already 400 billion odd budget deficit which of course means EITHER as POTUS will hav same consequential problems that I also exposed in #349 and #351

    This is Republican Ronald Reagan supply theory with a double twist

  7. Since the “conventional wisdom” on this as on everything else is to put the worst possible construction on everything the US does or has ever done, I try to ignore it.

    The Japanese, like the Germans, started wars of aggression, and had no right to complain when their own methods were turned back on them. Hiroshima was a direct consequence of Pearl Harbor and the Bataan Death March. The Allies gave both Germany and Japan two choices: (a) unconditional surrender (b) continue to get bombed. This was well known to the Japanese. When they accepted (a), (b) was called off. They then found the US to be surprisingly generous in victory.

    Good night.

  8. Ron, it really sounds like your sour grapes talking again. You have to let it go. Please show me where the ‘copying’ is on the attatched side-by-side comparison. Look forward to your response.

  9. Analogy is Nazi Germany could hav ALSO insisted on guarantees about Adolf Hitler before surrendering , and th Allies should hav accepted that condition for Hitler also

    Reality is th Agressors (Japan & Germany) had no rights whatsover to look for guarantees for there Leaders (Japanese Emperor or Adolf Hitler) who were involved in decison to start th War

    Unconditional means unconditional surrender It was THERE decisions NOT to surrender unconditionally and th Allies right to prosecute th war to force them to , but not hav to risk potentially a few hundred thousand allied lives & a greaternumber of Japenese ones as well in achieving it

  10. You continue to not see big picture of these tax cuts which BOTH ar doing because its traditional liberal party economic rationalism , one will add over 4 trillion to National debt and other over 3 trillion

    A trillion difference given they’re 15 trllion in debt now with 2 Fannies means 19 trillion vs 18 trillion…spot difference in National debt , ther is not one and I’m questioning wisdom of it especialy given massive budget defcitis and trading account deficits as well….it is trickle down Liberal Party type economics , not th ‘left’ way in such circumstances

    Thats overall picture , and I’m saying who will lend them th money and at what cost and for what productive purpose

    You ar worrying about th detail , well if you cann’t afford to borrow it in first place & its not of great produtive use then McCain’s policy in detail may as well be 100 times more equitable than Obama or th reverse and th above does not change USA ar in big economic trouble

    Now you reely want me to discuss detail and I shouldn’t for above reasons Firstly ‘copying’ is in th principal of giving th tax cuts at this time , copying an economic rationalist theory of trickle down , not th detail

    In detail , rich tax cuts Obama says he will defer recinding …so no difference , if they ever got recinded thats a big queston mark then of course there is a differnce

    Middle income tax cuts about same in REEL relative money terms vs there gross salary , Obama’s is more generous for under 66K per year by $13 p/w
    $161K-$227K about $85 to $55 p/w (me I’d give them zero)
    $112K-$161K about $50 to $42 p/w ($8 p/w diff , lolly money on that income , me zero
    $66K-$112K about $19 to $23 p/w ($4 diff p/w , lolly money on that income
    $38K-$66K about #6 to $19 p/w (and McCain is doubling concession for dependents , wouldn’t make up differential

    Bottom line one , under BOTH candidates most money p/w goes to people who can afford it , but under 66,000 get $13 p/w more with Obama which is far better , but still pawltry

    More important both will add to National debt , either over 4 trillion or over 3 trillion

  13. ‘Copying’ is in th principal of giving th tax cuts at this time , copying an economic rationalist economic theory of trickle down , its a free market approach that I don’t agree with either of them on nor National Debt implications

    A ‘left’ approach would be more capital insrensice , more infrastucure & works programs and respoursed based with most of tha same money if its to be used

    Secondly reely detail although varying in degreesfor middle income is just too much for them even with Obama’s compared to poor , and most peple here assume would think so , I mean 161,000 to $227,000 getting $85 or $55 p/w and poor getting 6 plus concessions or $19 p/w

  14. Ok. I give up. Unconditional surrender. I accept the proposition that dropping the bombs was the one and only cause of the Japanese surrender, and indeed the only the way the war could have ended without the invasion of Japan and/or the extermination of the Japanese population and the deaths of a somewhat smaller number of Americans and (for the benefit of Ron) 10,000 Australians, or at least without the loss of oodles more lives than the bombs cost, and that the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki individually and collectively deserved it anyway or if they didn’t their deaths were entirely the responsibility of their countrymen because the Japanese started the war and committed war crimes, and (for Adam’s benefit) that any deviation from this line can only be the expression of a deep seated anti-American mania.
    Now that I have been re-educated can we move on?

  15. “and that the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki individually and collectively deserved it anyway or if they didn’t their deaths were entirely the responsibility of their countrymen because the Japanese started the war and committed war crimes”

    I agreed with your whole post up to this last bit

    War is immoral , but once attacked one must defeat enemy with least losses , and NO Hiroshima and Nagasaki individually and collectively deserved it , no civilian death ever is deserved in war…but its a consequence of War ..commenced by th Agressor (Japan) and its th Agressor’s (Japans) responsibility for suchterrible civilian losses caused by such Agression (war crimes ar not relevant)

  16. Adam, Ron and ArtieB

    There have now been several interpretations of motive, ethics etc in this thread about the US/British conduct of WWII. I don’t have any firm views as I don’t know enough to argue but I am fairly persuaded by Adam’s arguments about Dresden not being anything like as morally questionable as I had always been led to believe.

    What really surprises me it that the truism “History is written by the victors” doesn’t seem to be true. Clearly, I’m not hearing German or Japanese versions of WWII; I’m hearing and reading English and American interpretations. For a war which, IMHO, almost any conduct by US/UK would be justified given that they were fighting Nazi Germany, why is there so much negativity from the victors about the war?

  17. [‘Copying’ is in th principal of giving th tax cuts at this time , copying an economic rationalist economic theory of trickle down , its a free market approach that I don’t agree with either of them on nor National Debt implications]

    One of the lamest attempts to brand Obama a ‘copier’ I have seen.

    A ‘left’ approach would be more capital insrensice , more infrastucure & works programs and respoursed based with most of tha same money if its to be used]

    Since when is Obama from the left? Honestly Ron, you need to give up your Obama witch hunt, it’s embarassing.

  22. Adam:

    That doesn’t change the fact that the USA was hideously racist towards its minorities, let alone the Japanese, and was also hideously anti-semitic – for example FDR and his State Department as the Holocaust Institute has pointed out

    Just because the USA is everyone’s favourite punching bag doesn’t excuse the bad things they have actually done

  23. McCain is into the whole republican free-market, low-tax, pro-business mantra that Bush and his cronies have been spouting. Any statements to the contrary are recent inventions. Here is his own policy website where you can see for yourself:

    http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/0b8e4db8-5b0c-459f-97ea-d7b542a78235.htm

    I hope Obama continues attacking him on this. McCain can’t complain about the excesses of Wall Street now when he has in the past been one of the people championing taking away the corporate watchdogs.

  25. evan14

    I think this explains the end of the Repugs big bounce. It was due to Palin and it’s over now. This is a huge swing from ridiculously positive to even. I think it’ll get worse too.

    As voters have taken a second look at Sarah Palin in venues like the Charlie Gibson interview and even Tina Fey’s SNL sketch, they may not be as enamored of what they’re seeing.

    The Research 2000 poll now has Palin’s favorability-unfavorability scores at 45-44 — just a +1. Six days ago, when the poll, launched, she was at a 52-35, a +17.

  27. Mary, of course that’s true.

    Diogenes, the notion that history is written by the winners hasn’t been true for several decades. Today history is written by the leftist intelligentsia, and therefore is consistently anti-American.

  28. I’ll post this on the correct thread. William’s comment follows.

    Russia seems to be struggling with the whole capitalism thing. The share market tanked 17% and they suspended trading. Emergency talks commenced.

    Russia halts trading after 17% share price fall
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ff9306c-83f1-11dd-bf00-000077b07658.html

    William says;
    Energy prices have been hit very hard, which explains the Russian market’s collapse. This throws the Russian resurgence we were hearing so much about a month or so ago into a new light.

  31. I realise posters who support Obama (wrongly thinking he was a ‘left’ candidate on economics) now feel foolish , but that Dario is a product of your lack of research and knowledge of economics Subsequently misrepresentating what i’ve said doesn’t camoflage this , but it does mean I can now ignore all your future posts as a sniper

  32. 137 & 144, GP. Your ignorance of history reminds me of the comment about repeating it. The Napoleonic Wars were on a world-wide basis, but an even better example might be the 7 Years War 1756-1763 which saw conflict in Canada, America, Europe, Africa, and India.

  35. Avoiding referring to specific ‘left’ policys does not camoflage Obama non ‘left’ on economic models , universal healthcare nor Kyoto nor supporting Bush/Cheney oil conservation Bill amongst others

    But hell , when is truth or reel ‘left’ policys asociated with those Obama supporters who ar rusted on

    On those above , Obama would not qualify as a Labor Party politcan….Gore , Hillary & Edwards would

    Yous bought a phoney ‘left’ candidate & now you’ll hav him as POTUS based on my analysis from june , for which nothing since has reely altered

  36. Polling is a very inexact science in the US because of voluntary voting. I look at the general trend at sites such the Real Clear Politics poll averages and the state polls at Electoral-Vote.com. It’s obvious that the race has gone from Obama well ahead to McCain slightly ahead since the conventions. I think the Wall St crash will benefit McCain, even though the Repubs are in office, because he is seen as the “safer” of two candidates with no economic expertise or experience, so he may now be sneaking further ahead. But I’ve been wrong before!

  37. Thanks Adam. I too follow Real Clear Politics and to be honest a 1.3% lead to me is MOE stuff. I agree with you about looking for a trend though and recently the trend has been heading Obama’s way. It’s anyone’s race at this stage IMHO.

  38. [I realise posters who support Obama (wrongly thinking he was a ‘left’ candidate on economics) now feel foolish , but that Dario is a product of your lack of research and knowledge of economics]

    Ron, please point me to my posts where I said Obama was a left candidate on economics. I look forward to your response.

  43. It’s now very obvious that the business model of those master of the universe at Wall St has been digging a hole to fill another hole. you can only do for that so long before it catches up with you. It has.

  45. Tucker Bounds is a shocker. The female spokesperson with the long funny name is much better.

    I disagree with Adam about the effect of the Wall St crash. McCain has admitted that the economy is not his strong point and Palin doesn’t even know that the banks in the US aren’t owned by the tax payers. Obama and Biden aren’t known for their economic credentials either. I’m not sure which of the leading democrats were strong on economics except Bill Clinton obviously. If you were allowed a third term, he’d win in a canter IMHO.

  46. Neither McCain nor Obama has any economic credentials, so that is a non-issue. The Repubs are in office so one would expect their brand to be damaged by a crash which has happened on their watch and because of their actions. But McCain is not running as a Repub, he is running as a “maverick,” so if the voters buy that (and so far they seem to be), then he won’t suffer as much as the Repub brand generally. If McCain can frame himself as a “sound money” low tax conservative, and can frame Obama as a big spending, high taxing liberal, as well as completely without experience, the crash will work to McCain’s advantage.

  47. “It’s now very obvious that the business model of those master of the universe at Wall St has been digging a hole to fill another hole”

    US government created th business model first though primarily Republican Party majority Congress and later th non practical ‘left’ section of Democrat Party majority Congress partnering a dim wit POTUS …Liberal Party would be proud of th economic theory but not its outcome

    In good times , create debt & dual deficits against financial capacity , capital , and zero worthiness criteria facilitated capital markets & consumers joining as one copying that same flawed model

    USA through there model hav managed to achieve th thoeretical impossible….enter a severe downturn with pre exisitng astronomical debt & dual massive deficits Its an imbeded cultural thing with US ……except paradoxicaly th practical ‘left’ wing of th Democrat Party who understand both sensible economics & equity…and I imagine this reely p.ssed off Liberal Party pollies here

  49. Adam 386

    ROTFL! Is that a republican talking point? If so tell them to try harder because that one won’t wash. I don’t think the current crash will hurt McCain any more than the recession we had to have hurt Keating. If thats OK with you then fine, bet McCain 🙂

    Seriously McCain is Mr “steady as she sinks” on economics, as my post at 373 highlighted. Clinton would have been a more formidable foe on economics than Obama as I said months ago, but Obama is not economically illiterate; Biden is even better. They will shred McCain on his record of supporting Bush economic policies. They should too, because those policies have beena disaster for the US and are now hurting the whole world.

  50. It’s hardly a “Republican talking point” to say that the crash has happened because of Republican policies and actions, which is my view. My point is that McCain has done quite well at distancing himself from the Repub party.

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