UPDATE (9.30pm): Liberals win Nedlands by 987 votes.
UPDATE (9pm): Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove by 405 votes. Liberals win Morley by 340. Labor wins Collie-Preston by 411. Labor wins Kwinana by 300. Only Nedlands to go, where the Liberals are believed to be home and hosed.
UPDATE (3pm): Alan Carpenter resigns as Labor leader.
UPDATE (11.30am): Nationals back the Liberals. Colin Barnett the new Premier.
UPDATE (11am): Brendon Grylls to hold press conference at 11.30am.
Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper brings a remarkable account of yesterday’s deliberations by the WA Nationals’ state parliamentary party, which met to decide who it would back to form government. Appearing under the headline: “DONT YOU DARE: Nats’ boss last-ditch plea to stop WA Labor marriage”, the report by Joe Spagnolo relates that federal leader Warren Truss made a “last-ditch plea” to talk state leader Brendon Grylls out of “a shock alliance with Labor”. Agricultural region upper house MP Max Trenorden, a known opponent of any deal with Labor, is quoted saying: “I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.” We will find out what that means exactly later today, after the parliamentary party puts its recommendation to the state council.
The Nationals’ endgame comes as the Western Australian Electoral Commission spends the weekend conducting preference counts in 11 seats designated as in doubt. The big news from the six counts conducted yesterday was that Labor retained Albany by a surprisingly comfortable 96 votes, while falling 64 votes short in Riverton. In North West, the Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals in the second last count and taking the seat from Labor with their preferences, the final result being a 719 vote (6.9 per cent) Labor win over Liberal. Also determined were Forrestfield (Labor by 98 votes), Wanneroo (Liberal by 322) and Pilbara (Labor by 534).
Of the five seats to be counted today, two are genuinely in doubt: Alfred Cove, which the Liberals might recover from two-term independent member Janet Woollard, and Kwinana, where Labor has been gaining on independent front-runner Carol Adams in late counting. This puts the numbers at Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals four, independents two and two in doubt. The two confirmed independents are both in the orbit of another party: Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been promised a position in a Liberal cabinet, while Kalgoorlie MP John Bowler has resolved to work in concert with the Nationals. Nonetheless, any Liberal-Nationals arrangement will have to rely on the support of one or possibly two independents to maintain a majority in the lower house, whereas Labor plus the Nationals will equal a clear majority.
It’s the opposite story in the upper house, through which any Royalties for Regions deal would also need to navigate. While final seats remain in varying degree of doubt in all regions except North Metropolitan, the Liberals appear certain to win 16 seats out of 36 while Labor can hope for no more than 13, and are more likely to win 11. With the Nationals looking at five or six seats, the support of the Greens would probably be needed to pass a Labor-Nationals scheme that was opposed by the Liberals.
Agree Adam
I expect that without the at least nominal legitimacy of compulsory voting (and referenda) , to have a check on representative government going astray, Glen supports the right to bear arms? Yee-ha! Ka-pow. The Liberal Party could rename itself the Institutional Party and have an election once each decade.
Is anyone going to make a prediction about what’s going to happen?
Life will go on.
Well I think everyone thinks it’s Labor, going by what came out of that meeting.
If the national party keeps going as it has been it will cease to exist. As a party willing to form a government with either side it may have a future. But I’m willing to bet they will go for the Liberals and a slow and steady decline.
from whats ive been reading etc, it seems Labor, but i will never believe it until i see it
Tom at 40
[… the electoral collage from a historical anomaly to a lower house style president and cabinet appointing and dismissing body (with the appointees coming from the Electoral Collage). With at least annual sessions paid members and proportional representation electing it from each state and the District of Colombia. With the appointments being for an indefinite time or a period that was longer that the for year term of the electoral collage term and could be dismissed by a simple vote.]
I was referring to your spelling. Collage instead of College. The meaning is nicely different.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)
as opposed to that
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collage
🙂
20 minutes and you might be seeing it.
If Carpenter does indeed succeed in forming a government, how many weeks will it be until the next Liberal leadership change?
If it is Labor, i should hope Colin stands Liberals in every single Nat held seat in the next election.
Do they make hats out of chocolate? 😉
I thought the Nats said they would wait until there were LC results before deciding who to bring in as a junior partner?
colin will probably retire immediately (if nats go with labor), no point him hanging around.
i really cant see a leadership contender, except for porter, though thats probably a bit too soon, thomas is gone, buswell maybe.. but are they that stupid?
[If Carpenter does indeed succeed in forming a government, how many weeks will it be until the next Liberal leadership change?]
Well, it will cause the Federal Nationals to commit mass suicide.
So to answer your question; however long it takes the cleaners to wash the blood from the floor at parliament house.
Man if the Fed Nats grow a pair and pull out of coalition the Libs are rooted.
ruawake
LOL!
That’s right. Someone, and I’m not naming names here, did make a pledge to eat his hat if we got a Labor-Nat Government in WA.
If they join the ALP. The Federal Libs ought to cast adrift the Federal Nats completely.
It’s one thing to not be in Coalition with us, its another to deny us Government.
As far as im concerned if the WA Nats back the ALP, the Federal Nats ought to be given 2 options, become Liberal MPs or prepare to be challenged at every single election.
Maybe there will be a Government of State Unity. Brendan Grylls as Premier with the pick of the best from Labor, Liberal, Greens and Independents in the ministries.
Like the first parliament in the new South Africa.
They’d be nice to each other and try to impress the general public at the same time. They all know they might need each other next time.
If that happened, I would be seeking chocolate hats.
Will we see a re-run of the Julie Bishop / Colin Barnett seat-and-job-swap scenario?
[It’s one thing to not be in Coalition with us, its another to deny us Government.]
It was the people of WA who denied the Liberals government.
Or better yet, give our preferences to popular independents if we cant win their seats outright in a fed election. They would be down to a couple of MPs by the end of that.
Grylls and the Nats nationally will be enemy No 1 of the Liberal Party of Australia.
They also denied the ALP too Oz. They had a 6% swing against them too!
*Chortle* It’ll be like Joh-for-Canberra all over again. You guys don’t do opposition very well, do you Glen?
Touche Glen. But Government is created by number of seats not popular votes, so Labor technically does have a slight mandate in my opinion.
[It’s one thing to not be in Coalition with us, its another to deny us Government.]
If the Nats side with the Libs the thing that would’ve cost the Libs government was their inability to win more seats than Labor.
Crap, it’s 11:30.
Oz and Glen
Compromise. There was a 5% swing TO The Greens (WA).
Its not a swing between Liberal and Labor.
And not 1 MLA for a swing to the Greens as big as the National Party’s vote.
The injustice that not even McGinty is out. 😉
Next time, next time… it could be soon.
I’m surprised the result hasn’t leaked yet.
its live on sky
Its a Lib Govt.
Adam, but this time the Nats really are on the way out and we could hasten their demise if we really wanted to.
ShowsOn we won what 8 seats, started from a low base thanks to 1v1v and had an election called during the Olympics, had it been a fair fight we’d have won most likely more seats than the ALP.
So much for ‘independent’ lol
Nationals support Liberals
labor out
Are you serious.
and the deal was made 8 days ago…
nice site, btw… 😉
See Grylls didnt have the numbers to back the ALP and the message from their voters was they didnt want Happy or should i say Sad Carps in for another 4 years.
1 Down, many to go.
Damn. I wanted to see William eat a hat.
So the Libs still need a few independants.
Bl Carps and WA.
[ShowsOn we won what 8 seats, started from a low base thanks to 1v1v and had an election called during the Olympics, had it been a fair fight we’d have won most likely more seats than the ALP.]
Look up the word “more” in a dictionary.
Grylls just admitted that the ALP put a better deal on the table. His credibility is going to take a hit over this.
This also means that Carpenter is gone.
[Grylls just admitted that the ALP put a better deal on the table.]
WTF? So he sold out the bush so he could become Deputy Premier?
[Grylls just admitted that the ALP put a better deal on the table. His credibility is going to take a hit over this.]
So he was pressured by the Party.
It sounds like Grylls was rolled by his party.
Retracts chortle.
Carpenter goes from rooster to feather duster in one press conference.
[WTF? So he sold out the bush so he could become Deputy Premier?]
You can look at it that way, or as Gary said he was more likely rolled.
Yeah, a bit of a joke in the end. He said for a long time it was always going to be about getting the best deal, and then in the end it comes down to a vote from his council, not the deal. Independent Nats my ass.
So Carpenter likely to retire from politics?
I told you he got rolled by his Party.
I wouldnt be surprised if this young Turk gets rolled himself in good time 🙂