UPDATE (9.30pm): Liberals win Nedlands by 987 votes.
UPDATE (9pm): Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove by 405 votes. Liberals win Morley by 340. Labor wins Collie-Preston by 411. Labor wins Kwinana by 300. Only Nedlands to go, where the Liberals are believed to be home and hosed.
UPDATE (3pm): Alan Carpenter resigns as Labor leader.
UPDATE (11.30am): Nationals back the Liberals. Colin Barnett the new Premier.
UPDATE (11am): Brendon Grylls to hold press conference at 11.30am.
Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper brings a remarkable account of yesterday’s deliberations by the WA Nationals’ state parliamentary party, which met to decide who it would back to form government. Appearing under the headline: “DONT YOU DARE: Nats’ boss last-ditch plea to stop WA Labor marriage”, the report by Joe Spagnolo relates that federal leader Warren Truss made a “last-ditch plea” to talk state leader Brendon Grylls out of “a shock alliance with Labor”. Agricultural region upper house MP Max Trenorden, a known opponent of any deal with Labor, is quoted saying: “I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.” We will find out what that means exactly later today, after the parliamentary party puts its recommendation to the state council.
The Nationals’ endgame comes as the Western Australian Electoral Commission spends the weekend conducting preference counts in 11 seats designated as in doubt. The big news from the six counts conducted yesterday was that Labor retained Albany by a surprisingly comfortable 96 votes, while falling 64 votes short in Riverton. In North West, the Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals in the second last count and taking the seat from Labor with their preferences, the final result being a 719 vote (6.9 per cent) Labor win over Liberal. Also determined were Forrestfield (Labor by 98 votes), Wanneroo (Liberal by 322) and Pilbara (Labor by 534).
Of the five seats to be counted today, two are genuinely in doubt: Alfred Cove, which the Liberals might recover from two-term independent member Janet Woollard, and Kwinana, where Labor has been gaining on independent front-runner Carol Adams in late counting. This puts the numbers at Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals four, independents two and two in doubt. The two confirmed independents are both in the orbit of another party: Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been promised a position in a Liberal cabinet, while Kalgoorlie MP John Bowler has resolved to work in concert with the Nationals. Nonetheless, any Liberal-Nationals arrangement will have to rely on the support of one or possibly two independents to maintain a majority in the lower house, whereas Labor plus the Nationals will equal a clear majority.
It’s the opposite story in the upper house, through which any Royalties for Regions deal would also need to navigate. While final seats remain in varying degree of doubt in all regions except North Metropolitan, the Liberals appear certain to win 16 seats out of 36 while Labor can hope for no more than 13, and are more likely to win 11. With the Nationals looking at five or six seats, the support of the Greens would probably be needed to pass a Labor-Nationals scheme that was opposed by the Liberals.
[I wouldnt be surprised if this young Turk gets rolled himself in good time]
Yup
Dario,
I think I also heard him say that in order to get their plans through (royalties for regions, etc.) that they would have had to rely upon Greens votes to get it through the upper house which wasn’t a tenable plan. So while Carpenter could promise him the lower house cooperation, he wasn’t in a position to promise upper house cooperation as well. That seemed, to me, to be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Now, I admit I didn’t hear the full news conference so there might have been more explanation.
*#&$*#&*(#&*$(&#*(#& …….. Now, I’ve got to put up with Liberal leadership in WA (moving there in January). 🙁 ……….
Ah well, coast-to-coast 2002-08 RIP. It was a good run. Now it’s coast-to-rabbitproof-fence.
All federal funds for WA will be cut off tomorrow morning.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see another election well before the 3 years is up.
Make that 4 years.
[Now, I’ve got to put up with Liberal leadership in WA (moving there in January)]
Don’t do it jules!
Interesting:
Liberals+Nationals+Liz Constable+John Bowler
I wonder whether they will attempt to change any IR laws?
Nationals (and I assume John Bowler) reserve the right to leave Cabinet and I guess vote against legislation.
Interesting.
Gives them a LC majority as well.
Grylls said there are now 2 National Parties in WA?
If John Bowler decided to go with Labor at any stage would the new government fall?
Wha-?
Oh well, no more blaming Labor for their ills.
There are some harsh lessons coming the Liberals’ way.
1) They will have to learn (or at least temporarily pretend to adopt) a sense of social conscience. Life is not all about what money individuals and corporations can drag out of the ground. It is also about repaying some back to the communities from whose districts the wealth is extracted. This will force the Liberals into ideological contortions that will leave them looking gawky and pained.
2) They have as their Treasurer a confessed chair-sniffer. Watch the new Opposition go to town on him.
3) They will be governing during most uncomfortable circumstances. An unconvincing win, a tenuous hold on power. The likelihood of unstable government. The prospect of the Liberal brand being damaged by presiding during an economic downturn. Immense pressure will be applied to them from Labor states and Labor federally as Mr Rudd pursues cooperative federalism.
Would they lose their majority? Probably a better question.
It is about time. Brendan finally ceded his nonsensical proposition of a Labor/Nat coalition.
Gary, if Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove, hers would be the decisive vote without Bowler. Otherwise, Liberal plus Nationals plus Constable equals 30 seats. Like it or not, today marks the start of a long march through the wilderness for Labor.
So will the federal tax on gas be a bargaining chip now I wonder?
All the real states who don’t need to rely on whoring out their environment to say afloat are still Labor. That’s all that counts.
/tongue in cheek.
[112
Gary Bruce]
Rubbish. There will be no stop, to blaming Labor for their ills. No justification will be required. Its a great tradition to blame the previous government. No-one is above it.
[today marks the start of a long march through the wilderness for Labor.]
Hmmm, I dunno. Cuppa’s outline some of the problems facing the new Government and if they don’t deal with them well it could set up a win for Labor next election.
Let’s see how they like it when their pensions are cut off tomorrow.
Well I wonder how long till the Libs try to roll back all gay rights and re criminalize homosexuality? And re criminalizing pot.
Lets watch social progress go majorly backwards! I feel sorry for the people of WA.
[William 116]
Is your Gravatar the Terry Gilliam God from The Holy Grail?
I would have like to see you eat that hat!
Dario @ 106,
Haven’t a choice in the matter, the move is job related, we are a defence family.
Say goodbye to Carps, Ripper, McGinty all the old guard will fade away.
It’s actually going to be a good thing for Labor, gets rid of alot of dead wood.
113 cuppa – I would have thought the harsh lesson the Libs will have to face is the Nat’s demands for rural funding…
[124
juliem]
Glad to see some defence is sent to other side of the Brisbane line, sometimes. Not all Sand Gropers are nasty people with Banana Splits voices. WA will be OK. 🙂
Just announced on ABC. Nats are Liberal creatures forevermore. Gutless.
Brian Burke and Julian Grill are going to have to change the speed-dials on their mobile phones. Is Barnett going to impose a blackout on his Ministers from talking to the Godfather?
Yes Disasterboy, it is intended to signify my authority round here. Regarding hat eating: one lesson we should all take from the last two months is that you should never hold your breath waiting for me to be proved wrong about anything (okay, so I did pick a one-seat Labor win, but those was a much better guess than every better-paid commentator I can name off the top of my head).
van onselen will be dancing around in glee
And Labor is saved from having to get into bed with a lot reactionary subsidy-grubbers. If I can’t have a Labor government, I’d rather be in opposition I think.
124,
Thanks for the vote of confidence 😉 ……. I know that folks like me are in the minority in WA (now), so maybe this will encourage me to get more involved once I get settled next year. That would be one way to tackle the problem imho 😉 …… Politically, now, I just need to see ALP back in Canberra next month. We live here now and I am working the election in a booth in Chisholm. Have to be publically unbiased on the day but privately will be hanging out to see Labor back in. Then need to get the Dems in in Washington (I’m a dual citizen so voting absentee in the US election). Dems in the US will be a much harder task then ALP in Canberra ……
I bet Rambo Bishop has allready been over WA Fib HQ with her copy of Workchoices, saliva dripping from her fangs, it will soon to be renamed WA Workchoices.
I’m with you Adam – an ALP-Nats coalition? The thought was fun for giving fright to the Libs, but I’m glad we won’t have the reality.
Paul Murray on 6PR says a Labor source tells him Grylls was rolled by the party executive, the composition of which can be seen here.
Who’d have thought? Six weeks ago the thought of a Liberal win would’ve seen you laughed out of town. Is this the biggest political turnabout in Australian history?
No, Bracks beating Kennet in 99 was bigger.
How long before Buswell starts sniffing around the treasury?
No 128
Gutless? In the sense that he didn’t want the Liberal Party contesting every National seat in every election hereafter?
LOL! Give me a break imacca. Grylls’ decision just save the National Party.
Will Grylls stay as leader for long?
Will he quite and become an independent or start a new party?
P.S. sorry about mis-spelling the college in electoral college.
I wouldn’t make any assumptions about the Libs only being in for 1 term. I think confident assertions are a little tired given six weeks ago we (me included) were confidently predicting a Labor romp.
How do I get my funky avatar to work?
136 Wiliam. v interesting….
Doesn’t bode well for longevity
I will leave that to our Liberal friends to judge. It’s certainly the biggest political f*&^-up in Australian history.
No 141
Grylls has indicated that the Nats will not be in traditional coalition with the Libs, meaning that they reserve the right to withdraw from cabinet and cross the floor if necessary.
143 – you have to click on your avatar and then follow the steps
Dinsdale P.,
Betcha Carpenter is rueing the fact that he waited a few too many days now to call the election ……… 🙁
No 145
Yep, the ALP should have easily won given the amount of free-kicks the Libs gave them prior to the election.
The loss can only be attributed to the failings of Corpse.
148 – I would have thought one of his problems was he didn’t wait another 6 months