UPDATE (9.30pm): Liberals win Nedlands by 987 votes.
UPDATE (9pm): Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove by 405 votes. Liberals win Morley by 340. Labor wins Collie-Preston by 411. Labor wins Kwinana by 300. Only Nedlands to go, where the Liberals are believed to be home and hosed.
UPDATE (3pm): Alan Carpenter resigns as Labor leader.
UPDATE (11.30am): Nationals back the Liberals. Colin Barnett the new Premier.
UPDATE (11am): Brendon Grylls to hold press conference at 11.30am.
Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper brings a remarkable account of yesterday’s deliberations by the WA Nationals’ state parliamentary party, which met to decide who it would back to form government. Appearing under the headline: “DONT YOU DARE: Nats’ boss last-ditch plea to stop WA Labor marriage”, the report by Joe Spagnolo relates that federal leader Warren Truss made a “last-ditch plea” to talk state leader Brendon Grylls out of “a shock alliance with Labor”. Agricultural region upper house MP Max Trenorden, a known opponent of any deal with Labor, is quoted saying: “I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.” We will find out what that means exactly later today, after the parliamentary party puts its recommendation to the state council.
The Nationals’ endgame comes as the Western Australian Electoral Commission spends the weekend conducting preference counts in 11 seats designated as in doubt. The big news from the six counts conducted yesterday was that Labor retained Albany by a surprisingly comfortable 96 votes, while falling 64 votes short in Riverton. In North West, the Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals in the second last count and taking the seat from Labor with their preferences, the final result being a 719 vote (6.9 per cent) Labor win over Liberal. Also determined were Forrestfield (Labor by 98 votes), Wanneroo (Liberal by 322) and Pilbara (Labor by 534).
Of the five seats to be counted today, two are genuinely in doubt: Alfred Cove, which the Liberals might recover from two-term independent member Janet Woollard, and Kwinana, where Labor has been gaining on independent front-runner Carol Adams in late counting. This puts the numbers at Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals four, independents two and two in doubt. The two confirmed independents are both in the orbit of another party: Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been promised a position in a Liberal cabinet, while Kalgoorlie MP John Bowler has resolved to work in concert with the Nationals. Nonetheless, any Liberal-Nationals arrangement will have to rely on the support of one or possibly two independents to maintain a majority in the lower house, whereas Labor plus the Nationals will equal a clear majority.
It’s the opposite story in the upper house, through which any Royalties for Regions deal would also need to navigate. While final seats remain in varying degree of doubt in all regions except North Metropolitan, the Liberals appear certain to win 16 seats out of 36 while Labor can hope for no more than 13, and are more likely to win 11. With the Nationals looking at five or six seats, the support of the Greens would probably be needed to pass a Labor-Nationals scheme that was opposed by the Liberals.
Not entirely surprised – although it is certainly blatantly obvious Grylls got rolled. At least the Upper House justification is a plausible one, but of course what happens until 22 May 2009?
Not entirely a bad thing for Labor to head into opposition either, but they must approach it as a short term arrangement because it could well be. With Morley a possibility to be recovered without the D’Orazio factor next time around, that leaves the ALP probably needing 1 seat. This means Alannah must be installed as leader and the dead wood cleared out.
Won’t necessarily happen, but I don’t think this Grand Tory Coalition is going to hang together well at all.
No 150
Agreed. There was already anger at the early election. Timing would have made little difference.
It didn’t make a difference to John Howard’s result in 2007.
I certainly am, Julie. Carps still has a job…
I’m sorry to have to report that there hasn’t been a one-term non-Labor government in WA since the second Mitchell government of 1930-33.
I’m with Kim Beazley on the election timing issue – Carpenter didn’t go too early, he went too late.
The right time for Labor to go was when there really was anticipation of an imminent election back in June. Instead, for reasons forever to remain a mystery, he fell between an early and a late election and came out looking terrible.
When was the last coalition government in WA?
Sweet
I’m with Adam. A win is a win. Look at the second-term winning margins of Bracks, Beattie et al in recent years. Incumbency does have some perks other than a driver and a key for the elevator.
No 155
The voters saw the early election as the cynical ploy that it was, Talkon. Accept the loss, rejuvenate the party and get on with the job of being a strong opposition.
[Instead, for reasons forever to remain a mystery, he fell between an early and a late election and came out looking terrible.]
He should’ve gone when Buswell staved off a leadership spill.
That was the point when everyone knew the Liberal party room was insane.
Leave “should’ve done” to Graham Arnold, Shows.
well, Dinsdale, it didn’t work that way for Borbidge, Greiner, Ray Groom, or David Tonkin. So anything can happen.
Dinsdale Piranha now you’re trying to predict what will happen. For that to happen, by the way, you need to turn out to be a good government. They may well be but it isn’t guarenteed because of what happened in other states.
Who’d ever thought I would be agreeing with a GOP elephant?
A Labor/Nat coalition might have been unlikely to see out a full term – but Lib/Nat coalitions have been pretty stable I would have thought.
Labor now have a major task to re-establish their credibility. Surely there is going to be recriminations and consequences for the leadership. Should we expect by-elections? Any word from Carps?
It amazes me the ALP did not all the Election when The Sniff was the Opposition Leader…Hopefully the Nats, don’t let WA go completely neo-con now!
The question is who can roll Grylls in the Nats??? I can see a Howie and Tip working relationship. If only Max was in the LA perhaps he could have made a come back, after all Max went to the 2005 election in a Coalition.
Still the question remains, how can Cautious and Sniff get Lisp to like them?
No predictions from me. Last thing I predicted was Labor picking up Dawesville, Scarborough and Geraldton. All I am saying is that if the ALP wants to make a good start now, it should forget about measuring for the curtains in Dumas House for the short term, and clear out the dead wood. Its fightin’ time.
Grog and GP, the point is that if Carpenter had gone a week earlier he would have been facing Troy Buswell, in which case he would have won. It’s a little simplistic to say the lesson here is never call an early election.
rumor has it is Grylls and Carps shook hands on a deal on friday.
congratulations to the libs and good luck to them, theyll need it. Im off to the corner to blubber like a little baby. Damn damn damn damn!!!!
^ bollocks…
Is it not possible, Will, that the Libs would have dumped Buswell anyway? Clearly enough people to make a difference didn’t mind a has-been loser being reinstalled in a seat he had vacated and put up as the alternative Premier.
I wish Carps a nice retirement and a lovely long holiday god does he need it and it may well bring a smile to his face.
i mean bollocks to ‘average joe’…. this software needs an edit post function…
any chance grylls will resign and go as an independent lol?
So now the canal is on? *Hums theme from Aida*
Barnett, ‘this is the sweetest victory of them all’!
Carps and Cautious are not good friends.
#140:
Twaddle, piffle and rot GP. I think the Nats have missed the opportunity here. Grylls campaigned for months that they were not going to be the minor branch of the Liberals. Come the election, after a very long campaign on the basis of independence, they appear to have reverted to type. I think that there will be a lot of dissapointed people out there who have given the Nats a try and will be wondering why now.
Interesting the comment from William Bowe at 136 that Grylls was rolled by the exec. Was he just an expendable front man for when they thought they were going down the tubes, and is he going to be sidelined now?
And why wouldnt the Libs contest those seats at the next election. They are not after all in a coalition with the Nats are they??
A well, roll on the next one. Till then we will have the entertainment of Barnet trying to dodge knives, Chairman sniff embarassing himself and people around him on a regular basis, and the CCC bringing out findings that will be just as damaging for the Libs as the ALP.
Still, its a bit sad that its business as usual again. Will be interesting to see how extreme they try to be this time around.
seanofperth @ 176
Now let me see . . . . I can have a senior position in Govt (as Deputy Premier?) or I can go a sit by myself . . . hmm
you need a spine for that… 😉
as for ‘crossing the floor’ – rofl of the year.
Brendon Grylls has come within an ace of increasing his party’s lower house representation in the face of one-vote one-value, and increased its upper house representation from one seat to five or maybe six. I wouldn’t be in a hurry to roll him if I were the Nats.
And of course thanks again to the Greens for handing the Legislative Council over to the Nats for the sake of creating a rotten borough for Dee Margetts. Good work, go and hug a tree before your new government chops them all down.
Has anyone seriously thought about the likelihood of by-election heaven ahead ………!
McGinty won’t stay, nor will Kobelke ……. both were despised and arrogant non-performers in their previous portfolios and could offer nothing
positive in opposition moving forward. Could well be a couple more including Fran Logan and Co. depending on how bad the Varanus and CCC
reports prove to be. The Libs could well end up close to the 30 seats required in their own right over time, circumstances dependent.
Ah yes …… “How sweet it is to be loved by you” sung by Alan Carpenter will long be remembered as a pivotal moment in the sudden and
massive demise of the Labor Government in ‘losing the unloseable’.
And indeed, how sweet it is!
Wayne Thompson
No 179
Yes, an that independence need not necessarily mean that the Libs cannot win out of the negotiations (which they did in this case). You’re just miffed that Labor didn’t win. Fair enough, but don’t pontificate about the future of the Nats when you couldn’t care less.
A Balcatta by-election would be very interesting if Kobelke goes – Labor held it by only 2.0 per cent. Willagee and Cockburn might be close but, I suspect, no cigar. Fremantle of course could very well go to the Greens.
Colin’s comeback victory clearly rivals Howard’s 1996 miracle.
Labor has been rejected in WA and will now lose office. The first of the dominos has fallen, and the scene is now set for a great Coalition revival which will see Labor Governments swept from power right across Australia. Labor will fall in QLD next year, at the hands of the new LNP. The Rudd Government, which sits on a razor thin margin and is already manifestly failing to deliver any economic improvement, will be swept out in 2010, and then Labor will be decimated in NSW in 2011, if not before. So says Cerdic Conan.
PB says: CC, I’ll allow you back for the time being, but one bit of childish name-calling and you’re gone – there won’t be any warning.
Glen @ 187
It would come close, but Colin would have had to score an absolutely majority in his own right for it to truly rival Howard.
Well, well. Carrying on my comment last night, I saw the Dockers leading at three quarter time, and yes, they did lose as expected. Time to leave this state for a while, I think…
Wayne: If there’s a by-election in Freo, the Greens’d have to be a pretty good chance. 😉
Especially if the Libs dont run.
Oh pish, the writing had been on the wall for Keating ever since the Canberra by-election. I remember saying on election day we were going to get thrashed. This ranks only with the fall of Kennett in 1999. No-one saw that coming, certainly not the ALP.
How come some posts are indented and some are not?
i’ve signed up but my avatar wont change wtf is going on??? HELP!
Glen, it takes about 15 minutes to kick in.
Pictures of General Wenck are not allowed Glen
Not sure I follow, Adam – which posts are indented?
No real surprise! the ALP will be disappointed but sometimes things happen for a reason
The question is can the Liberals deliver for the Nationals, for those saying the ALP will be thumped in NSW
in 2011 are getting ahead of themselves for while they may deserve it, three years is a long way off, lets not forget
back in 2005 most people did not take Kevin Rudd seriously now no one can find a Liberal that would be considered
a threat.
I think while people are pointing to Morley as a seat that ultimatly cost the ALP can take confort in the result in
Nort-West Coast where National Party preferences have won the seat for the ALP.
I think Carol Adams will hand on in Kwinana.
Does my avatar work yet?
Grog, No don’t think that early elections as such had much to do with it. If he would have called the election while Buswell was still running the shop, they would have been home and hosed. He took a bet that Buswell would hang around till the summer then when he called the election it wouldn’t have been early. Think he didn’t conceive of the possibility that the Libs would even consider a recycled leader. He should have called stumps when Buswell was in charge, thus he waited a bit too long. Once they switched leaders *again*, his hands were tied and he had to call it, he had no choice. Catching the Libs in disarray (he hoped) was his best option at that point but as we know now, it didn’t work because a different man was at the helm.