The longest day

UPDATE (9.30pm): Liberals win Nedlands by 987 votes.

UPDATE (9pm): Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove by 405 votes. Liberals win Morley by 340. Labor wins Collie-Preston by 411. Labor wins Kwinana by 300. Only Nedlands to go, where the Liberals are believed to be home and hosed.

UPDATE (3pm): Alan Carpenter resigns as Labor leader.

UPDATE (11.30am): Nationals back the Liberals. Colin Barnett the new Premier.

UPDATE (11am): Brendon Grylls to hold press conference at 11.30am.

Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper brings a remarkable account of yesterday’s deliberations by the WA Nationals’ state parliamentary party, which met to decide who it would back to form government. Appearing under the headline: “DONT YOU DARE: Nats’ boss last-ditch plea to stop WA Labor marriage”, the report by Joe Spagnolo relates that federal leader Warren Truss made a “last-ditch plea” to talk state leader Brendon Grylls out of “a shock alliance with Labor”. Agricultural region upper house MP Max Trenorden, a known opponent of any deal with Labor, is quoted saying: “I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.” We will find out what that means exactly later today, after the parliamentary party puts its recommendation to the state council.

The Nationals’ endgame comes as the Western Australian Electoral Commission spends the weekend conducting preference counts in 11 seats designated as in doubt. The big news from the six counts conducted yesterday was that Labor retained Albany by a surprisingly comfortable 96 votes, while falling 64 votes short in Riverton. In North West, the Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals in the second last count and taking the seat from Labor with their preferences, the final result being a 719 vote (6.9 per cent) Labor win over Liberal. Also determined were Forrestfield (Labor by 98 votes), Wanneroo (Liberal by 322) and Pilbara (Labor by 534).

Of the five seats to be counted today, two are genuinely in doubt: Alfred Cove, which the Liberals might recover from two-term independent member Janet Woollard, and Kwinana, where Labor has been gaining on independent front-runner Carol Adams in late counting. This puts the numbers at Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals four, independents two and two in doubt. The two confirmed independents are both in the orbit of another party: Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been promised a position in a Liberal cabinet, while Kalgoorlie MP John Bowler has resolved to work in concert with the Nationals. Nonetheless, any Liberal-Nationals arrangement will have to rely on the support of one or possibly two independents to maintain a majority in the lower house, whereas Labor plus the Nationals will equal a clear majority.

It’s the opposite story in the upper house, through which any Royalties for Regions deal would also need to navigate. While final seats remain in varying degree of doubt in all regions except North Metropolitan, the Liberals appear certain to win 16 seats out of 36 while Labor can hope for no more than 13, and are more likely to win 11. With the Nationals looking at five or six seats, the support of the Greens would probably be needed to pass a Labor-Nationals scheme that was opposed by the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

524 comments on “The longest day”

Comments Page 5 of 11
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  6. This isn’t exactly about WA, but it is clearly about politics and the partisan nature of the beast and beastees. From the Newshour with Jim Lehrer re the avalanche of negative smear ads swamping the US election.

    Wallowing in non-truths

    DAVID BROOKS: The last 60 days of any campaign, even for those of us who love politics, tend to be depressing, because they get into the gutter. I think both campaigns have been misleading, exaggerating.

    I think the McCain campaign has been more misleading and exaggerating. Obama has said things which I think are blatantly untrue, where he said John McCain said yes to — when you make $5 million, you are rich. McCain never said that seriously. Obama ran an ad today saying John McCain hasn’t changed since he join the Senate in ’82, that he doesn’t know how to use a computer. I don’t any of us as journalists would that as the factual truth. Those things are just not true.

    So, I think both campaigns are trading untrue charges. They enjoy their own lies. They get furious at the other.

    JIM LEHRER: Enjoy their own lies?

    DAVID BROOKS: Yes.

    I mean partisan people — this is the narcissism of partisan. You get furiously outraged at the other campaign’s lies, and you love your own. Nonetheless, I do think it is fair to say that the McCain campaign has been more egregious than the Obama campaign.

    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec08/sbcampaign_09-12.html

  8. No 192

    Adam, you’re not seriously suggesting that Corpse didn’t see the writing on the wall before the election? How you explain the tearful pleas in the media to not elect the Libs, after internal polling continually indicated an ALP loss?

  9. carps and co were told to go the day the west australian ran the get rid of buswell front page. No one to blame but ourselves for not going when everyone told us to. This election was not called too early it was most definately called 3 weeks too late.

    As i said earlier damn damn damn damn. No i still dont feel any better.

  11. Yes, he finished his career as Comrade Paulus, police chief of Leipzig in the DDR.

    GP, I didn’t follow the election closely enought to know what Carpenter thought when he called the election. I doubt he would have called it if he thought he was going to lose.

  13. Thanks Disasterboy. I see that I said then that the Greens risked handing the Council to the Nats by insisting on retaining the gerrymander for the sake of creating a seat for Dee Margetts, and I was right, wasn’t I? And she only got a third of a quota even then!

  17. And subject to my comment in No 214, the CCC report is to be released soon as well so for those hoping for a short-lived Barnett government, I’d say it’s just wishful thinking.

  18. No, Adam, I don’t think you’re right. I don’t think that Dee was under any illusion that the Agriculture win was ahem fortuitous and it would be little different after the so-called 1v1v changes. Hey, I’d eat a chocolate hat, but until the button is pressed… Dee could get a seat in Agriculture in the upcoming LC. 🙂 I’d eat 2 chocolate hats in fact, but its possible from a third of a quota, BTLs and Labor preferences. In fact it would probably be a good thing.

    But really the only chance for the Greens in Agriculture is when the Nationals (&/ some other popular bitter party) preference them before Labor.

  19. Going to love it when the CCC reports come out in little while. Be interesting to see then if there are still postings from people claiming that Carpenters ALP govt in W.A. was corrupt?? Dont you just love NCB!

  21. GP @ 213, I don’t honestly know enough to know if he was corrupt or not. I live in Canberra. My interest in the WA election stems only from the fact that I am moving there this summer (and now have to live under this mob). But I think that if you look hard enough, you can find corruption most anywhere. It isn’t party specific. Some politician somewhere (historically) said something along the lines once of “he may be “a crook” but he is our “crook” {paraphrasing the quote here from memory, perhaps someone who knows the original and its source can speak up?}. I’m a Labor voter so Labor would have to do something really really really bad for me to be turned off of them when I walk into the ballot box. Since I cast my first ever ballot back in the US, I’ve only ONCE ever voted for the right wing candidate (Republican or Liberal) and then I wasn’t really comfortable with that but at the time, it was the lesser of two evils.

  22. I’m not suggesting the new government is going to fall immediately GP – but there is no way we won’t be heading to the polls again before September 2012. Possibly to see if the conservatives can get a majority, possibly not…

  23. My point was not about whether Margetts wins or not, it was about the Greens’ selfish insistence on retaining the grossly malapportioned Council for her convenience. It’s no good saying other parties do the same thing. People who set themselves up as more virtuous than everyone else set higher standards for themselves.

  25. I’m in NSW so not up on WA politics but I saw on the news last week that WA teachers had turned down a 15-20% pay rise because they thought the’d get more if the Fibs won? Wot are you lot smoking over there? and can I have some?

  29. No 224

    William, my comment did not accuse Corpse personally of corruption. Also, I’m not sure that I like the increasing draconian tone.

  30. Vera at 225:

    Yup, thats exactly what happened. Barnet promised them more during the election campaign. Be interesting to see if they follow through. Could be a mistake by the chalikies i reckon as it seems that the headmasters are agitating for more “flexibility” in their EBA now.

    While Barnets policy position is up for discussion, does anyone have a link to the policies on renewable energy from the Libs?? I have heard that both sides promissed a feed in tariff for people putting energy onto the grid (like from solar cells)??

  33. “William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, September 14, 2008 at 3:36 pm | Permalink
    A pre-emptive reminder that it is defamatory to apply the word “corrupt” to people without the appropriate criminal convictions.”

    Apologies from Canberra 😉 … I was just trying to dredge up my memory banks and they weren’t working. Lets substitute schmuck instead? I’ve checked the definition on dictionary.com and it is this – an obnoxious or contemptible person. Under the circumstances, I reckon that word will suffice as a synonym 😉 Even a die hard Labor voter would be comfortable with that as well given that the Labor majority has disappeared now in WA parliament 🙁

  34. wrong 230, only labor promised such a thing
    the west happily ripped into carps for flying to albany to anounce it, funny they forgot to mention the fibs didnt even have a renewable energy policy

  35. Honestly GP@228, i think BBurke means substantially more to Tories than Labor voters, and probably little if anything to swing voters. Besides, you lot have NCB and Chairman Sniff who are so dear to our hearts after all.

  36. [Adam @ 223]

    Hey the Greens are doing their job of an oppositional Party pointing out others lack of virtue. It does not mean there are illusions of perfection.

    There was nothing selfish about it and it was not for those reasons. All commentators of note, know that the LC, as it is, was essentially a Labor/Nats construction. Its not of any particular benefit to The Greens.

    If it was my personal priorities I’d have left the mal-apportionment in the LA and reformed the LC in a compensatory way.

  38. A conservative party’s decisions and direction made by 36 faceless … whatevers. Who’d have thunk it?

    They’re putting the finishing touches to the new CWA Headquarters in Hay St, West Perth. I look forward to ALP campaign material in a few years showing Grylls and Barnett standing together outside this building, waiting for the real power to be wielded, perhaps holding a nice tea cake in supplication 🙂

  40. while everyone is here recalling past history don’t forget that if the pact between hitler and stalin had held we might very well be living in a complety different world to what we now live in. The brits. allies, us did what we we had to do to defeat the germans and where a cats whiskers away of going to war with the russkies.I also support the push for sir keith park”s memorial to be in the vacant place in trafalgur square,

  41. Ah well that was fun, 9.9% of the population of Australia got to excercise their will in a democratic way.

    The majority of the other 90.1% don’t care. 🙂

  43. I agree ALP v Buswell would’ve been a winner.

    Maybe it is simplistic to say going early is bad policy – but give me an example of it being good… Once Buswell was rolled was there any reason not to wait – (or is the CCC report going to be that bad – I have to admit I don’t follow WA terribly closely)

    But then all this coulda, woulda stuff ignores the fact they lost because they weren’t good enough.

  44. Congrats to the Greens, Nats and Independents in general who all scored big vote increases…especially the Greens…50,000+ more primary votes! 13,000+ for the Nats.
    Labor shithouse. Liberals meh.

  48. ruawake, just because you live on the east coast i think it is a disgrace that you think that WA> dosen’t matter. WE are all australians.

  49. Generic person,
    I am a laborite but i agree with you that the democratic process in wa has delivered a government. Other people get over it and wait for the next election.

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