The latest monthly ACNielsen poll has produced an encouraging debut performance for new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote 42 per cent to 41 per cent. However, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead after preferences. Kevin Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred leader 56 per cent to 33 per cent. The poll also finds 33 per cent believe Peter Costello should quit politics against 29 per cent who think he should stay. Last month’s ACNielsen poll had Labor leading 55-45, from primary votes of 43 per cent and 39 per cent.
There are rumours of an early Newspoll this evening, so stay tuned.
UPDATE: Newspoll says 55-45, down only marginally from 56-44 last fortnight. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 42 per cent and the Coalition up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are continuing their long-term move southwards: this time his approval rating is down four points to 50 per cent, while his disapproval is up five points to 37 per cent. Consistent with the Galaxy poll, Rudd heads Turnbull as preferred leader 54 per cent to 24 per cent, after leading Brendan Nelson 62 per cent to 16 per cent a fortnight ago. No straightforward approval rating for Turnbull at this stage, but he has scored a remarkable 74 per cent on being “decisive and strong”, the flip-side of his much vaunted arrogance.
UPDATE 2: New shadow cabinet announced. Main changes: Julie Bishop in treasury, Helen Coonan in foreign affairs, Christopher Pyne in education, Andrew Robb in “a new portfolio covering infrastructure, COAG and an emissions trading scheme” and Joe Hockey in finance. No-brainer: Bronwyn Bishop dropped.
I wonder what proportion of the Australian’s readership are Pollbludgers?
Good night bludgers.
I see GP has made no reply to my comments on his “Andorra thesis,” whatever it may be. I expect that’s because he doesn’t really have a clue what he is talking about.
And here is THAT Interview with Julie Bishop in full 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/22/2371253.htm
You would have to find a 100% apolitical bunch of candidates as a popularly elected President with partisan feelings would certainly be tempted to interfere in the political debates, especially approaching election time and his side needing help. You would have a celebrity influencing public perception rather than the cut and thrust of the political parties.
[It’s got nothing to do with being a dictator, all it’s got to do with is framing a question for a referendum.]
There won’t even be a referendum first. There will be a plebiscite with lots of different models.
[For Flint as with Sophie Pano-bella I agree with you that their actions defy explanation]
Well they don’t. They demonstrate that they were willing to say absolutely anything to help their cause. Honesty, humility, or integrity were nowhere to be found.
Frank – do I really want to watch it?
ShowsOn,
Warnie for President! Or maybe Jennifer Hawkins. Or Daryl Somers, I dunno …
Gee it’s going to be great when we directly elect our President. I’d better make the most of the next six years before (you say) it’s going to happen.
[Frank – do I really want to watch it?]
It’s a radio interview 🙂 on ABC Local Radio Drive in Perth.
As for Turnball’s much hyped shadow ministry: Swan will eat Bishop for breakfast, Julia will make mincemeat out of that unknown from WA, and Abbott is stuck in a portfolio he doesn’t want!
As soon as Turnball’s poll numbers start declining, watch for the likes of Minchin, Smith and Billson to start flocking to Costello’s side!
No 446
I concur. Do we really want the bread and circuses of the US presidential elections? I think not. But so virulent is their desire to discard the queen, the ARM will happily discard the stability that our constitution has provided for the last 100 years.
[You would have to find a 100% apolitical bunch of candidates as a popularly elected President with partisan feelings would certainly be tempted to interfere in the political debates, especially approaching election time and his side needing help. You would have a celebrity influencing public perception rather than the cut and thrust of the political parties.]
Well, that’s why we could end up with an extremely radical model where the President and Head of Government (Prime Minister) are the same person who are not members of the legislature. So every 3 years we vote for who we want to be the executive head of state and government, who then can appoint ministers from inside the legislature (federal parliament).
This just returns to my point that moderates and conservatives should’ve voted for the 1999 model, because it is the most moderate model that will ever be offered. Any model after this point will be more radical and will include a direct election component to give it a chance of winning.
[It’s got nothing to do with being a dictator, all it’s got to do with is framing a question for a referendum.]
which would get shot down in flames as being “Rudd’s republic”
[Turnbull did the right thing to brush it off. I hope he keeps doing that.]
Yep brush off what apparently was his life long fight. Good to see the one thing everyone knew he stood for he dumped as soon as he could. (but then we knew he’d donw that when he chose to work with the PM who broke Australia’s heart…)
[Warnie for President! Or maybe Jennifer Hawkins. Or Daryl Somers, I dunno …]
Or Eddie McGuire, or even Generic Person 🙂 Heck, even HUmphrey B Bear or one of The Wiggles or Hi-5 might get the keys to Yarralumna 🙂
ShowsOn,
What, precisely, will a plebiscite achieve?
The monarchists will just run dead at that juncture, and then when the referendum happens (you know, that’s the vote that actually counts), trot out all the arguments against whatever the model is.
Anyway, enough for tonight!
An alteration of the Constitution has always required four steps:
1. A member of the Federal Parliament must introduce a proposed law.
2. The proposed law must be passed by an absolute majority of both Houses of the Parliament
3. The Government must advise the Governor-General to submit the proposed law to the electors
4. The majority of the electors in a majority (i.e. four) of the States and a majority of all the electors must approve the proposed law
There is no member of Parliament or candidate for Parliament who has promised to introduce a bill for to establish a direct election republic
If a proposed law for a directly elected presidency was passed by both houses, a Government led by any likely leaders of the Liberal or Labor parties would not advise the Governor-General to submit it to the electors
If a proposed law for a directly elected presidency were submitted to the electors – Ms Kerry Jones and her monarchist followers and successors would oppose it
Simple as that
“This just returns to my point that moderates and conservatives should’ve voted for the 1999 model, because it is the most moderate model that will ever be offered.”
At last, ShowsOn, something we agree on.
[Gee it’s going to be great when we directly elect our President. I’d better make the most of the next six years before (you say) it’s going to happen.]
How many votes does our current Head of State receive?
That would be ZERO. Any system that improves on that is fine with me.
[But so virulent is their desire to discard the queen, the ARM will happily discard the stability that our constitution has provided for the last 100 years.]
HAHAHAHAHAHHHA 1975.
Generic Person for President? Oh God, No!
Turnbull avoided the Republican wedge using the Queens death as an end-point. I know it’s a bit morbid to mention this but everyone dies eventually. That’s the first thing I tell my registrars when things are looking grim.
I’m a Republican but I quite respect the Queen as a person. I’m not wishing her dead but QEII is 82 years old. Her health is reportedly excellent but Turnbull may regret linking a republic to the Queens demise.
[“This just returns to my point that moderates and conservatives should’ve voted for the 1999 model, because it is the most moderate model that will ever be offered.”
At last, ShowsOn, something we agree on.]
Of course, but it failed. So now we will end up with a direct election model. I just hope we go to the absolute extreme and remove the executive from the legislature while we are at it. If we do that then it will kill off party discipline over night, which would kill of the careers of all our dead wood politicians, and will promote politicians from either side who actually have strong policy and legislative brains. It would shift our politics back to the centre by creating a coalition of moderates and centrists, and would side line extremists on either side.
Grog,
I don’t think he’s dumped it, has he? Just said it’s not a priority.
Like I said, Rudd raised the topic, and he’s the leader of the majority party in the HOR (and therefore the best placed single person in the nation to advance the Republican cause, if he so chooses). Let him do so, if he wishes.
The journos are totally owned by the sun king – don’t write what is expected then they are probably out of the game. More like whipped dogs eager to please their masters. And they do follow the right script as they are employed on the bias of being wimpy Liberal yes men with no moral compass. I can just see them wagging their tails wetting the floor in excitement whenever the sun king calls on the phone or by email.
Well maybe not like that but it is good imagery and about what they are worth as journos. Haven’t looked at those papers for a long time. No point – you know what script they will follow and when they will follow it.
[Turnbull avoided the Republican wedge using the Queens death as an end-point. I know it’s a bit morbid to mention this but everyone dies eventually.]
I think that is a STUPID reason for delaying the republic debate. We can decide these issues for ourselves, we don’t need to wait for someone in some other country to die. This sums up why we should be a republic, we are always forelock tugging to people in other countries.
ShowsOn, I’m not a fan of “HAHAHAHA”.
“Turnbull may regret linking a republic to the Queens demise.”
Diogenes, I had exactly the same thought, as soon as I heard what Turnbull had said.
On the other hand, the Queen seems in good health, exercises regularly, is a life-long non-smoker and has good genes (on her mother’s side, anyway). And the average job-span of a Liberal Opposition leader is, what, eighteen months?
So I guess Malcolm figured it was a reasonable bet.
“How many votes does our current Head of State receive?
That would be ZERO. Any system that improves on that is fine with me.”
A comment that ignores the salient point that our current Head of State doesn’t interfere with Government, whereas an elected one could be mighty tempted to do so.
Anyway, that really is enough! I don’t care, an Australian would be better, changing to the US system would be something worth considering (to pick up another of ShowsOn’s points), just don’t give me the current system with a grafted-on directly elected nong as Head of State!
And good night!
There won’t be any plebiscite or referendum on the Republic at the next election. Guaranteed.
No 467
So, judging from your scurrilous retort, are you suggesting that a President would not have the power to dissolve parliament?
MHW @ 465
Bryan at OzPolitics says referenda proposals only ned to be passed by one house.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/fun/trivia/quiz3/
The Piping Shrike always good for a fresh view on the current situation.
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/
I might say that the problem with Turnbull’s tax review and policy when it comes out is that it is not in isolation. A more in depth and broad and thorough one is of course being conducted by the government at the moment that will trump anything Turnbull comes out with.
I guess Turnbull will look for some gimmicky thing for his policy – like the no tax return idea (no rebates?). And no doubt the friendly part of the media will sing its praises.
But such things being so complex you would imagine the possibility for finding holes would be endless.
Well, if anyone still wants to play that silly, low-rent feral abacus politics of the Howard-Costello years, then: lets point at Bishop! She doesnt know the teh official interest rates! http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2371279.htm
Economic credentials in TATTERS etc yells the Oppo Organ (well, perhaps not in this case. After all she’s a girl and thats SEXIST! etc).
Plus ‘Macquarie’ Turnbull is more part of the economic problem of new guard financial cowboys than the solution, right Dennis?
Some “economic management” team!
This lovely offering from the Courier Snail. Jet-set Rudd turns on critics http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/
They seem to be linking Rudd’s trip with the rise in the sharemarket. A strange article.
The piece was ok at least it put Rudd’s side for a change.
But I am afraid Rudd could be the best PM this country has ever had and you would still find liberal journalists and papers trying bring him down. Never assume these journos are even the slightest bit interested in Australia or Austrlians. To then it is entirely about getting rid of non-Liberal governments no matter the alternative.
No 483
Sorry, John Howard is the best PM Australia has ever had. 🙂
Has been had by?
Nielsen polling on a republic, funnily enough.
[Sorry, John Howard is the best PM Australia has ever had]
I’m not surprised you’re sorry for that statement GP
[Nielsen polling on a republic, funnily enough.]
52-40 is pretty good I think after all the damage that was done to the Republic brand. It will happen, but until things probably won’t begin to ramp up on it for around 4 or 5 years I’d say.
Sorry GP – John Howard … his divisive, and somewhat psychopathic need to win some sort of culture war will see him as the most damned PM in Australia’s History.
Good news on the Republic – with no campaigning and a linger of Howard’s 1999 damage, 52-40 is a great result.
If Flint could just get on TV a few more times, It will be Yes all the way.
Off with their heads!
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted – The Management.
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted – The Management.
John who?
No 491
John Winston Howard, the greatest Prime Minister to ever grace the Australian Parliament.
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted – The Management.
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted – The Management.
let The War Ceimes Trials begin, after AWB, Detention Gulag, Hanief, Chikdren Overboard,etc. Trials
Keep fit Jonny there is a way yo go yet.
470,
“But so virulent is their desire to discard the queen, the ARM will happily discard the stability that our constitution has provided for the last 100 years.”
Just because something is wrong and stable doesn’t mean we have to hang onto it. If the change on the horizon after 100+ years frightens you, suggest you follow Germaine Greer et. al. to London 😉 ……..
Sorry ShowsOn comment 495 should read “460” that wasn’t directed to your comment. Apologies, haven’t had enough of my coffee yet 😉
A little N.S.W political news!
Former Treasurer Michael Costa announces his resignation from parliament!
Sad news! Whether you liked or disliked Costa(and many disliked the bloke), you can’t deny that he had some intelligence and big ideas, more than one can say for the crap still there, like Tripodi!
More evidence of just how much the Howard Party really cared for the ‘battlers’
[INSURANCE companies providing home builders warranty insurance have been allowed to dodge consumer protection and financial disclosure for years because of Federal Government changes to legislation.
…..The Herald has learnt that the federal MP Joe Hockey, as minister for finance in 2001, amended the corporations regulations, giving home builders warranty insurance the status of a wholesale product, thereby exempting its providers from disclosure obligations to consumers. Mr Hockey has twice refused to answer the Herald’s questions on why this change was made.
Two years later, home builder insurance providers were given a second exemption.
In 2003 the then minister for revenue and assistant treasurer, Helen Coonan, called on the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to establish a database, compelling insurance companies to make premiums and claims details available for government scrutiny. Yet home builders warranty insurance providers were granted an exception from this.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/insurers-a-law-unto-themselves/2008/09/22/1221935544129.html%5D
No doubt it’ll be even worse under the Merchant of Venice, who even from opposition is wanting to throw taxpayes money at his Babcock & Brown and Macquarie Bank mates.
PS: The article quotes Coonan’s chief of staff, Ainslie Gotto. Is that the Ainslie Gotto?