ACNielsen: 52-48; Newspoll: 55-45

The latest monthly ACNielsen poll has produced an encouraging debut performance for new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote 42 per cent to 41 per cent. However, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead after preferences. Kevin Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred leader 56 per cent to 33 per cent. The poll also finds 33 per cent believe Peter Costello should quit politics against 29 per cent who think he should stay. Last month’s ACNielsen poll had Labor leading 55-45, from primary votes of 43 per cent and 39 per cent.

There are rumours of an early Newspoll this evening, so stay tuned.

UPDATE: Newspoll says 55-45, down only marginally from 56-44 last fortnight. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 42 per cent and the Coalition up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are continuing their long-term move southwards: this time his approval rating is down four points to 50 per cent, while his disapproval is up five points to 37 per cent. Consistent with the Galaxy poll, Rudd heads Turnbull as preferred leader 54 per cent to 24 per cent, after leading Brendan Nelson 62 per cent to 16 per cent a fortnight ago. No straightforward approval rating for Turnbull at this stage, but he has scored a remarkable 74 per cent on being “decisive and strong”, the flip-side of his much vaunted arrogance.

UPDATE 2: New shadow cabinet announced. Main changes: Julie Bishop in treasury, Helen Coonan in foreign affairs, Christopher Pyne in education, Andrew Robb in “a new portfolio covering infrastructure, COAG and an emissions trading scheme” and Joe Hockey in finance. No-brainer: Bronwyn Bishop dropped.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

663 comments on “ACNielsen: 52-48; Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Our share markets may have some more shaky rides yet as I cant see Congress letting this bit of Republican corruption get through.

    The record USA bail-out might be followed by the biggest legalised corruption as the executive get to give out the $700bn with no oversight recourse or control

    “A critical – and radical – component of the bailout package proposed by the Bush administration has thus far failed to garner the serious attention of anyone in the press.”

    “Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-re viewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/22/dirty-secret-of-the-bail_n_128294.html

  2. Christian Kerr seems to have gone completely troppo. He thinks that the Sub-Prime crisis, particularly the past week’s meltdown – which Australia has survived fairly well so far – will be blamed on Rudd’s trip to New York, and thus Labor will lose the next election.

    He also believes that Labor’s referring to financial statutary regulatory authorities in Parliamentary speeches smacks of a lack of self-confidence.

    Madness, but there you have it: Christian has either flipped his lid or has borrowed Dennis’ old card file and is busy shuffling those little pieces of paper trying to come up with losing scenarios for Rudd.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24387948-7583,00.html

  3. More than Kerr have gone troppo, Bill.

    There’s been so much drivel reported regarding Kevin Rudd’s trip overseas at this “important” time. So much indignation from the opposition about how Kevin Rudd is leaving us all on our own and heading off to strut the world stage.

    Leaving aside the ridiculous nature of the point, what does that say about their lack of respect for Julia Gillard?

    Is there a more intelligent or capable member of the parliament, than Julia?

    Certainly not on the opposition front bench.

    This childish attack only serves to reinforce that the opposition still doesn’t get it. It’s 2008 not 1958. And this week in parliament will repay their ignorance in spades.

  4. Goodness me are you people STILL here?

    Mary @465. A referendum bill doesn’t need to be passed by both houses. It can be passed by either house and presented to the GG. In practice, however, since the GG only acts on the advice of the PM, a Senate bill for a referendum which is opposed by the government will not be approved. This was established in 1914. But a referendum can be called by the Reps alone.

  5. Fair dinkum, Bludgers…

    Just reading up on the latest financial meltdown in America (and I presume here too, today).

    If ever there was a more egregious bunch of d!ickheads than the so-called “Market” movers and shakers, I’ve yet to see it. Scenes like the last week reinforce the total casino nature of the modern financial system I know the preceding is no deep or original thought, but for Crikey’s sake… we’re supposed to TRUST these idiots to do the right thing?

    A complete rabble.

  6. Ladies and gentlement, I present the state of the art in Australian political reporting.

    Michael Brissenden, a useless cipher if ever there was one, is now on ABC Sydney radio saying “With Julia Gillard at the helm, Question Time will be entertaining.”

    Clearly a deep thinker.

  7. Bushfire, the OO has gone into panicky meltdown with Dennis becoming a little more balanced in the last couple of weeks and Kerr seems to be the designated labor kicker to retrieve their reputation and keep them in sweet with the “real leaders” of the country, in the next few weeks expect the suitably chastened Shanahan to again take up the shield and sword and fight valiantly for the OO liberal masters.

  9. [Delusion is rife within the OO…]

    Yes, but these are supposed to be smart people, the best of the best. This is especially poignant seeing as it was Kerr who gave bloggers a spray the other week for not writing fact-based opinions.

    Look, it might be the case that, come the election, people grimly go to the polling booths, their how-to-votes clutched in their hands, to vote out the Rudd government because he went to the UN in September 2008, instead of cancelling his trip to save Australia (or something). However doubtful that may be, at this stage Kerr has not one iota of evidence that this is the case (indeed initial polling indicates the opposite). It might be that Rudd cancelling his trip would be interpreted as panic, and similarly lambasted bythe Press. Whatever, it is pure supposition on Kerr’s part, made up completely out of thin air. He has no right to lecture bloggers or other commentators if they think different, or call him on his fantasising.

  10. Sky Noos is running a poll as to whether the government should pass the opposition’s bill on increases in pensions.
    Tomorrow I hear their poll will ask, “Do you believe in motherhood.” The result so far is very predictable.

  11. [Tomorrow I hear their poll will ask, “Do you believe in motherhood.” The result so far is very predictable.]

    And the day after “do you support things that are good, and are you opposed to things that are bad?”

  12. If Rudd didn’t go to NY the condemnation would be loud and long by the very same people and media outlets that are criticising him now.

    They are not criticising Rudd because they think whatever he does is right or wrong, that much has been irrelevant to them from the time Rudd was elected leader of the ALP. Rudd and Co are simply criticised because they are not LNP. That much has been obvious for a long while.

    If it were Turnbull these very same media groups would be singing his greatness long and loud. It is hardly even disguised anymore so used to it they have become. They don’t realise they are now down to their underwear and pretty soon their supposed impartiality will be the Emperors new clothes.

    We can only hope the Sun King mellows in his old age like he has in the States and decides to kick this bunch of low achievers out on the streets. We also await a change at the ABC.

    I dare say Karl Rove would be embarrassed by them as well and would be telling them to tone it down lest they reveal their true colours to clearly.

  13. A regular commenter here (can’t remember which) encapsulated the “damned if he does – damned if he doesn’t” anti-Rudd commentary perfectly a few weeks ago with something like this:
    Rudd blamed for interest rates if too low – that’s bad.
    Rudd blamed for interest rates if too high – that’s worse.
    Interest rates stay the same – ergo, Rudd responsible for something in between bad and worse!
    Brilliant.

  14. # 509 I don’t recall Christian Kerr ‘giv(ing) bloggers a spray the other week for not writing fact-based opinions’. He referred to ‘echo chambers’ where a prevailing group think on a particular blog (whether ‘left’ or ‘right’ friendly) scorns contrarian opinions, some of which may be ‘fact-based’ as well.

  16. Yeh I dont read the trashy thing – only when a link is posted here and then only sometimes. But it is galling.

    And for any Labor party officials out there – where is Damian Hale? Have hardly spotted him in the community since the election.

  17. Even Turnbull admitted that Rudd should go to New York, although I think that he only supported it because of the financial meltdown. Rudd is meeting the head of the New York Fed Reserve while he’s over there. Can you imagine how hard it is to see that guy at the moment? He’s the third most powerful financier in the world. Turnbull is just jealous. He’d kill for that appopintment slot.

  20. [Could we have a separate thread for people who want to bitch over and over again about The Australian?]

    For reasons I can’t fathom, The Australian is regaded by the rest of the media as the opinion setting publication on national affairs, particularly the ABC (with JA on the Board). No matter where you go -frm ABC local radio, to Insiders, to Sky News – the majority of opinions sought is from OO journalists. So it’s reasonable to discuss it, if only to see what the other side is thinking. Usually, if it’s in The Australian in the morning it will be in Question Time that very afternoon.

    One of the polls we’re discussing here was published and written up, more favourable to the Opposition than the numbers would suggest, by journalists from The Australian: another reason for analysing its delusional prognostications.

    They are a window into the mind (if that is the word) of the Liberal Party. The Australian plays a roughly similar role in Australian politics as does Fox News in the US: almost literally an organ, a conduit for the conservative parties’ thinking and spin.

    That they have been wrong on so many occasions in the recent past couple of years is a genuine cause for mirth. And they hate the criticism, expressing this hatred by lambasting bloggers more and more frequently in their opinion pages. Incidentally, this proves that their writers do read this and other blogs critical of their performance. God help us if they thought they had no critics. What garbage would they print then?

    We’re two irreconcilable sides of the political equation, which will never agree, but doomed to fight on, or at least snipe on at each other, for (it seems) forever.

  21. Judith being from SA maybe you would know, is Xenephon a tool for the Libs? After reading the article it seems he was given the job of trying to belittle and make a joke of Kev’s trip with the Missy Higgins remark and the Coalition are now running with it.
    “Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce said it was likely Mr Rudd would spend more time with Ms Higgins than discussing the global financial crisis with US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.”

  22. Xenephon will do whatever he thinks will make him popular – that is the most imporant thing for him. Being an independent means he is only judged by the nubmer of times he can get his name seen.

    Haven’t seen Hale since the election. Considering his narrow margin I would expect him to work his electorate.

  23. vera

    Mr X is not a tool for the Liberal (or Labor) Party. He is a populist, shameless self-promoter with a high profile which is not matched by any substantive contributions to policy.

  25. All of this anti -Rudd stuff, the personal, childish, smart alexc attacks I mean, could very well come back and bite these people on the bum.

  29. Well this afternnon will be fun, the Libs pension bill will be deemed unconstitutional by the HoR, the ultimate arbiter in this case, then all hell will break loose.

    The unrepresenative swill will get thier knickers in a knot, but the headline will be.

    Libs fail to understand the constitution. 😉

  32. This afternoon will also be fun when Swanny asks Allbul if he has confidence in his new would be treasurer who doesn’t even know the current interest rates.

  34. The pensions bill has been changed several times. Last night it had no seconder in the chamber. Today it will be deemed unconstitutional (despite an opinion to the contrary by the Clerk Of The Senate).

    Unfortunately, none of this will affect the coverage. Labor will now be acused of not even knowing how the Constitution works.

    However, better to gag debate in the House by main force than pass it and force Quentin Bryce into a Constitutional crisis.

    The Libs and Nats are wreckers. They spit the dummy bigtime when they can’t get their way. heir stunts are making our Parliament a laughing stock. Their petty point scoring (literally in the case of comparing Rudd’s days away with the hated Howard’s) is making our Parliament a laughing stock, from which they hope to perversely profit.

    It’s so damn parochial. You wonder why they bother.

  36. Given the USA and imminent global financial crises and the battle going on in the Congress over the Bail Out deal I would say that it is quite important and useful that our Prime Minister be there with others, reinforcing and making relationships, communication channels and getting first hand briefs. It is ridiculous for anybody to criticise this mission, not to mention the original purpose of the trip.

    Turnbull and Co are being cheap and, in suggesting that we copy the USA by pumping money into the financial markets, is serving to damage confidence of an already nervous market (something he has blamed others for). The Vaucluse Silver Tail has got his Gondola in the wrong channel, following the same old paths.

  37. BB

    The Speaker will make the House decide if the Bill is Constitutional, Labor will win the vote – hench it is unconstitutional.

    Nothing to do with the GG or the High Court or the Senate. The final decision maker is the HoR – this will remind the Fibs they are the Opposition. 🙂

  38. Mr X is all about shameless self promotion. Here is SA he was elected on a NO POKIES ticket and nothing has been done hear to curb the scourge of pokies. He bailed to bigger pastures, even though he haas achieved nothing. The people of SA have been fooled by him and his stunts, and have now got Bressington left here, who is as mad as a cut snake, and clearly not made for politics, or any other role where she is required to leave the house.

  39. [The Speaker will make the House decide if the Bill is Constitutional…]

    I agree, but the scenario I was talking about involved the bill being passed, and then presented to the GG for assent. What would her role be? To just rubber stamp, or to refuse assent?

    Would the proper place for challenging the Constitutionality be in the courts, if it was passed by the Parliament? I’m assuming here that if, for some reason, the government voted in favour, that some private citizen might wish to challenge it.

    This, though unlikely, would be interesting. Government caves in House of Reps. Pays pension rises. Private citizen gets law declared unconstitutional. Government forced to demand repayments from pensioners.

  41. Thomas Payne

    Do you really think anyone of any importance would care what an Prime Minister from Australia will say, I bet half of the US Senators does not know where Australia is.

    As for the pension bill, the problem is that half the ALP has said they cannot live on the pension, yet they are about to tell the Pensioner, we are still not going to do anything. That is going to hurt the poor and a lot of traditional ALP voters

    It was a cheap political scam from the Libs, but the rhetorics from the ALP is going to bit them harder than the Lib. They should have said no at this time, but we are running 18 enquiries and they are going to report 1/2 year before the next election and we will raise the pension 2 weeks before the election. (that is what the ALP are actually doing)

  42. [It was a cheap political scam from the Libs, but the rhetorics from the ALP is going to bit them harder than the Lib.]

    Hardly. Howard used to do it all the time.

  43. Dario

    This is actually hurting people who are upset financially, these people barely have enough money for rent and almost no money for groceries. This after Rudd “supposedly” said he would do something about fuel prices, grocery prices and interest rate rise

  44. [This is actually hurting people who are upset financially, these people barely have enough money for rent and almost no money for groceries. This after Rudd “supposedly” said he would do something about fuel prices, grocery prices and interest rate rise]

    Spare me dovif. This problem did not arise after November 2007. The Libs did nothing for years and are now simply playing politics after they even rejected a pension rise Brough brought before cabinet last year. The pensioners will get their rise, but not when the Libs decide.

  45. er dovif

    Interest rates fell last month.

    Why did the coalition vote against Sen Feilding’s amendments? Or maybe they are just looking after the last demographic they have?

  46. [Do you really think anyone of any importance would care what an Prime Minister from Australia will say, I bet half of the US Senators does not know where Australia is.]

    Suddenly critics of Rudd’s actions have decided that we are not a middle power after all. We are an insignificant Nowheresville and shouldn’t even bother trying. I’m surprised we even bother with consulates, embassies, ambassadors and even a Foreign Minister if we’re so diminutive.

    Of course, when Howard was at it, he was a hero who single-handedly turned Australia into an influential world force, punching way above its weight etc. etc.

    Now it appears that Rudd should “know his place” and stay at home like a good little nobody to provide a sounding board for Turnbull’s triumphant interrogations in QT… presumably before he does any more damage to our international reputation, until the true government of Australia can take over the reins of power again.

    This is a crap argument, Dovif, and you know it.

    We’re a member of the UN and if we don’t go for membership of the Security Council, someone else will, perhaps someone who won’t be as level-headed as we are in serious matters. We have had a proudhistory of service in the UN, back from Doc Evatt’s day as the second Secretary-General to the present. The tabloid minds that refuse to allow the properly and convincingly elected government of this country to represent it overseas are belittling the nation they claim to love.

    Nothing is too much: talk the economy down, cast doubt on national institutions, introduce Constitutionally dodgy legislation, block the Budget and now argue that not only do we have no influence on World affairs, but that we SHOULD not have it.

    It’s pretty easy to see who the real Australians are, and its not the Libs and their supporters.

  47. “Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s office has denied reports he plans to meet with Australian singer Missy Higgins while in New York.”

    Poor old X-Man. 🙂

  48. “Do you really think anyone of any importance would care what an Prime Minister from Australia will say, I bet half of the US Senators does not know where Australia is.”

    If that were true even more reason for the Australian PM to be there and more reason for the Opposition to uncritically support him.

    Yes – true if the Liberal party were genuine in this pension increase they would apply it across the board. Or do they think the others dont need it?

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