ACNielsen: 52-48; Newspoll: 55-45

The latest monthly ACNielsen poll has produced an encouraging debut performance for new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote 42 per cent to 41 per cent. However, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead after preferences. Kevin Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred leader 56 per cent to 33 per cent. The poll also finds 33 per cent believe Peter Costello should quit politics against 29 per cent who think he should stay. Last month’s ACNielsen poll had Labor leading 55-45, from primary votes of 43 per cent and 39 per cent.

There are rumours of an early Newspoll this evening, so stay tuned.

UPDATE: Newspoll says 55-45, down only marginally from 56-44 last fortnight. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 42 per cent and the Coalition up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are continuing their long-term move southwards: this time his approval rating is down four points to 50 per cent, while his disapproval is up five points to 37 per cent. Consistent with the Galaxy poll, Rudd heads Turnbull as preferred leader 54 per cent to 24 per cent, after leading Brendan Nelson 62 per cent to 16 per cent a fortnight ago. No straightforward approval rating for Turnbull at this stage, but he has scored a remarkable 74 per cent on being “decisive and strong”, the flip-side of his much vaunted arrogance.

UPDATE 2: New shadow cabinet announced. Main changes: Julie Bishop in treasury, Helen Coonan in foreign affairs, Christopher Pyne in education, Andrew Robb in “a new portfolio covering infrastructure, COAG and an emissions trading scheme” and Joe Hockey in finance. No-brainer: Bronwyn Bishop dropped.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

663 comments on “ACNielsen: 52-48; Newspoll: 55-45”

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  6. [Dario i dont dispute that is funny, but shouldnt the Treasurer have better things to say in Parliament?]

    If it shows that Turnbull is a phoney, why not?

  7. What the hell does knowing who’s in the Grand Final show you know how to run the country???

    Swan is just a fool for not sticking to policy, who cares???

    The fact that our Treasurer in these trying times comes to Parliament to simply crack jokes is not befitting his role as Treasurer.

    Swan is a Goose!

  8. Diogenes @ 540 –

    You really have to question Mr X’s judgement in choosing Bressington to join his ticket.

    Perhaps, but didn’t she call him a useless fraud a while back? Which suggests she isn’t quite the fool she’s made out to be, even if it did take a while for the penny to drop.

    My early tip is that if Xenaphon is reelected, it’ll be by the skin of his dentures and not the big margins of the last state and federal elections.

  9. [What the hell does knowing who’s in the Grand Final show you know how to run the country???]

    Glen, you clearly don’t get the real joke here: both The Sydney Swans and the Eastern Suburbs Roosters are Turnbull’s local teams!

  11. [What the hell does knowing who’s in the Grand Final show you know how to run the country???]

    The Roosters aren’t even an AFL team Glen. As BB said he didn’t even know the difference and they are his local teams. Hardly a man of the people.

  12. The Libs really are a one-trick pony.

    They held onto the 5c per litre cut in fuel excise for 5 months. Now they’re on the pensions thing. Both of them uncosted!

    In both cases they refused to do anything about these issues while they were in power (Howard being “once-bitten, twice shy” on a previous excise stunt).

    The Libs keep expanding their largesse on pensions, but every time they do it is revealed they have missed out on another million or so poor blighters who aren’t included in the uncosted, unplanned gravy train.

    LOL, poor buggers. They may be a one trick pony, but they can’t take a trick. Until stunts and uncosted instant fixes, and raids on the Budget, plus talking down the economy, coupled with faux points of order are stopped they are rightfully doomed to irrelevance.

  15. Tanner bringing the house down… feels nostalgic for Nelson already. At least Nelson had memorized a lot of statistics, several thousand of them, unlike Turnbull and Bishop (the latter didn’t know the Reserve Bank cash rate). didn’t do much with them, but at least he knew them. Probably even knew the cash rate in Uzbekistan.

    CUT TO: Nelson smiling and nodding.

    Turnbull now being reminded by the lovely Julia that he refused to put pensions up as late as last year? Is this true? If so, it is a disgrace! He should spend less time in Venice and more in his local area.

  18. [Turnbull now being reminded by the lovely Julia that he refused to put pensions up as late as last year? Is this true?]

    Yes, Mal Brough proposed an increase which everyone else in cabinet opposed.

  21. Now an inane argument (which they are bound to lose) by the Opposition over the correct order of questioners. These people are truly wreckers. They keep arguing over trivialities, in an appempt to disrupt the workings of the Parliament, trying to show they are superior in all matters legislative, yet make fools of no-one but themselves. More pointless stunts.

    They are close to, if not already a useless rabble. If this is the best they can do, the hard-working Speaker would be well within his rights to eject many more of them than he does.

  22. And yet again they cannot figure out how to suspend standing orders. 🙂

    No question from Ms Mesmer today – how long since she did not ask any question in QT?

  23. [They aren’t enjoying being in Opposition]

    That’s because they’re not supposed to be in Opposition, no matter how much contempt they treat the electorate with. They feel they should have been re-elected, even after WorkChoicing the battlers and hitting mortgagees with 10 interest rate rises on the trot. They’re supposed to be in government; it’s their by birthright — (or something).

  24. I think what quiet clearly is being exposed here and in the Senate is their worrying lack of talent. Even their best performers are strugglers.
    I cant see very many among them having enough talent to make a Rudd front bench.

  29. Libs now getting policy from the “Wall Street Journal”. LOL

    Lib supporters may soon be looking back on the Nelson term as “the good old days”.

  30. Bill it’s true, Turnbull was in a cabinet that voted a pension increase down last year, Vera sorry i was away, Mr.X loves being the centre of attention, actually i’ve rounded everyone i know {and i know heaps} to email Mr.X  and complain, of course it’s not going to do anything except to clog his mail up, but at least he’ll get the message, as an independant he doesnt have the staff a party member does to filter his mail out.

  32. Bishop now being accused by Swan as the “Shadow Minister for Plagiarism” for lifting a policy idea from the Wall Street Journal. “The Helen Demidenko of Australian politics!”

    CUT TO: Bishop (lips curling).

  33. Turnbull asks “What about last year and the year before that?” on pension reform.

    CUT TO: Julia, “Exactly my point. What about them?”

    This git, Turnbull, will be his own undoing. The pomposity meter is already off the scale.

    Also note that the government does not pursue trivial points of order. They are giving Turnbull the rope he needs.

  36. costello must be p’d off. HE was supposed to be in the limelight
    for a while now.

    Instead “the plan” to keep allbull out of the leadership has also
    blown up big time…

  38. LOL, Tony Abbott, responsible for Community Services, is absent from the chamber and is unable to second it! Some nobody seconds the motion and reserves her right to speak.

    It is pointed out that in the Senate the Coalition had more speakers on the Luxury Car Tax than on pensions.

    The usual pointless points of order to disrupt the House.

    This is head-shakingly bad for the Opposition.

  39. I must say that Rudd should go overseas more often. This has been a very entertaining QT without Rudd. He does get a bit boring sometimes and affecting the entertainment value of QT. Julia for Prez.

  41. Even Rudd could out-orate this mob.

    “Labor will not be allowing a flawed piece of legislation to be passed as it ignores millions of pensioners.”

    Where is Julie Bishop? Where is Tony Abbott? Where is Costello? Nelson?

  44. I’ll make a prediction – Margaret May will become a big liability for the Coalition over the next 12 months and be removed in the next major shadow cabinet reshuffle.

  49. [Dario i dont dispute that is funny, but shouldnt the Treasurer have better things to say in Parliament?]
    Oh Glen, you have to be joking. Your favourite son, Costello, made QT a laughing stock. What a hypocrite.

  50. [Why when they have a division (vote) do members change sides of the chamber? Thx ]

    People who agree to the motion go to the right of the chair, people who oppose it go to the left.

    This actually goes back to the U.K. parliament, where originally the Monarch sat where the speaker’s chair is. People who agreed with the Monarch sat to his or her right, and were thus considered conservatives (they wanted to conserve whatever the King or Queen wanted). People who sat on the left opposed the Monarch, and fought for greater influence of the population, and were thus considered radicals.

    This is why to this day we have the Left and Right political distinctions.

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