ACNielsen: 52-48; Newspoll: 55-45

The latest monthly ACNielsen poll has produced an encouraging debut performance for new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote 42 per cent to 41 per cent. However, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead after preferences. Kevin Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred leader 56 per cent to 33 per cent. The poll also finds 33 per cent believe Peter Costello should quit politics against 29 per cent who think he should stay. Last month’s ACNielsen poll had Labor leading 55-45, from primary votes of 43 per cent and 39 per cent.

There are rumours of an early Newspoll this evening, so stay tuned.

UPDATE: Newspoll says 55-45, down only marginally from 56-44 last fortnight. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 42 per cent and the Coalition up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are continuing their long-term move southwards: this time his approval rating is down four points to 50 per cent, while his disapproval is up five points to 37 per cent. Consistent with the Galaxy poll, Rudd heads Turnbull as preferred leader 54 per cent to 24 per cent, after leading Brendan Nelson 62 per cent to 16 per cent a fortnight ago. No straightforward approval rating for Turnbull at this stage, but he has scored a remarkable 74 per cent on being “decisive and strong”, the flip-side of his much vaunted arrogance.

UPDATE 2: New shadow cabinet announced. Main changes: Julie Bishop in treasury, Helen Coonan in foreign affairs, Christopher Pyne in education, Andrew Robb in “a new portfolio covering infrastructure, COAG and an emissions trading scheme” and Joe Hockey in finance. No-brainer: Bronwyn Bishop dropped.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

663 comments on “ACNielsen: 52-48; Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. [Dario i dont dispute that is funny, but shouldnt the Treasurer have better things to say in Parliament?]

    Costello was the first treasurer who – excluding the budget – never even moved his own bills in the house, he almost always left it to his parliamentary secretaries, or the assistant treasurer. He displayed utter contempt for parliament by breaking such a long standing tradition.

  6. Adam thinks we shouldn’t read anything in the OZ. But I think he misses the point. It can often be as amusing as watching QT on the ABC. Matthew Franklin’s effort today is a screamer.

    [THERE is a piece of well-disguised political cunning in the selection of Malcolm Turnbull’s front bench. He has appointed , Andrew Robb, to pursue Kevin Rudd’s pet policy areas: infrastructure and commonwealth-state relations.]

    [At his best, Robb is an average parliamentary performer. But the former Liberal Party campaign manager is a strategist of rare skill and guile. By asking him to walk into the heart of Rudd’s political narrative, Turnbull creates space for himself and Treasury spokeswoman Julie Bishop to focus on the issue they see as Rudd’s soft spot: economic stewardship.]

    Androbb is “his smartest and most experienced political operator”

    And yet he is;

    “At his best, Robb is an average parliamentary performer.”

    And a;

    “strategist of rare skill and guile.”

    But today’s Question Time has made a bit of a mockery of this;

    “Turnbull creates space for himself and Treasury spokeswoman Julie Bishop to focus on the issue they see as Rudd’s soft spot: economic stewardship.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24388217-7583,00.html

  7. This was sent to me by a friend via email. I’m not sure where they got it from, but it is very funny.

    Bishop the Post Turtle

    While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75-year old WA farmer whose hand was caught in a gate while working cattle, the doctor struck up a conversation with the old man.

    Eventually the topic got around to Julie Bishop and her new role as Shadow Treasurer.

    The old farmer said, “Well, ya know, Bishop is a post turtle.”

    Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a post turtle was.

    The old farmer said, “When you’re driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that’s a post turtle.”

    The old farmer saw a puzzled look on the doctor’s face, so he continued to explain.

    “You know she didn’t get up there by herself, she doesn’t belong up there, she doesn’t know what to do while she is up there, and you just wonder what kind of dumb ass put her up there to begin with.”

  8. Surely if the Fibs et al were serious about the plight of the single (aged) pensioners, they would propose legislation to fix the percentage difference between the rates for couples and singles, rather than just offering singles a one-off increase. The idea that a single person can maintain a household on 57% of the combined income of a couple is what is ridiculous, not (just) the actual rates. This implies that household expenses are a tiny fraction of the total living expenses, when we all know that rents and utilities expenses are the major drain on pension incomes.

  9. [Robb is … a strategist of rare skill and guile]

    Wasn’t it Andrew Robb who tried to de-legitimise the election by claiming 13 Labor candidates were ineligible to stand?

    Some strategist!

  17. Swan, etc are starting to call Turnbull “The Merchant of Venice”. How long before Portia (Mesmerelda) and Shylock (who could that be?) and Old Gobbo get a mention?

  18. Ms Mesmer was trying to be a Swan on Agenda, relaxed on the surface – paddling like all hell underneath. (pun intended).

    She failed miserably. “I did not say what I said” twit. 😉

  20. Well it will be interesting to see how QT is reported this evening (if at all) – or if the MSM keep harping on with Lib talking points about Rudd’s trip.

  21. [Well it will be interesting to see how QT is reported this evening (if at all) – or if the MSM keep harping on with Lib talking points about Rudd’s trip.]

    They’ll focus on the negatives for the government. Put your house on it.

  24. Be certain that the story will be how the Labor-dominated House of Reps has “defied” the “upper” House, the Senate, despite a ruling from the Clerk of the Senate that the bill was OK to proceed.

    This was one of the lines used in the pathetic “debate” today: Labor ruffians, defying their betters yet again by using crude numbers.

  25. We have an incompetent and incoherent Opposition that abuses parliament, the apparent alternate government and, most of the population will not aware of it, because of an equally incompetent, lazy, uninterested and or partisan media. Good way to keep standards low.

  26. Does this answer the question of what TV news will say about QT?

    “Oppn continues pensions pressure amid constitutional doubts” ABC
    “Turnbull demands debate on pensions bill” SMH

  28. “Just check the ABC you can be certain they wont reflect the performance of the Opposition accurately.”

    I listened to PM on RN yesterday, and was wondering if they had been watching the same QT I had been following here. Certainly didn’t sound like the same.

  30. Mesmerelda has copped it in the OO. If Mrs Mesmer dismisses the allegations as “smear” and they turn out to be true, hasn’t she misled Parliament. Doesn’t she have to apologise, as Belinda Neale did over the Devil child taunts?

    [JULIE Bishop’s staff have taken the rap over a plagiarism row, confessing to cutting and pasting a Wall Street Journal article into a speech she delivered in Parliament.

    Coalition sources have confirmed a staffer admitted using the material without referencing it, “a mistake they won’t make again”.

    Ms Bishop was accused of plagiarising the Wall Street Journal in a speech just hours before bungling a question on the Reserve Bank’s official interest rate.

    The deputy Liberal leader’s inauspicious debut as the Coalition treasury spokesman was lampooned in question time by Treasurer Wayne Swan.

    But Ms Bishop has dismissed the claims in Parliament as a “smear”, although she did not address the allegation directly. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24391138-5013404,00.html

  31. Who would have figured the OO would be the ones to be reporting it? Perhaps they are slowly manoeuvering themselves to become the GG again???

  32. Julie Bishop has reached her Peter’s Principle, namely she has reached her level of incompetent as the ST. Swannie is getting better and better.

  34. Dario

    I think Finns is spot on. The media are pretty good at smelling blood in the water. I think they know Mesmerelda is way out of her depth and they want a different shadow Treasurer. If you’re getting bashed up on by Swannie, it’s not a good look. Labor must be loving it. The weakest link for Labor is the economy esp with Swan selling it. If Swan can so easily dismiss the shadow Treasurer, the Libs trump card has been played and lost.

    I’m betting the call to bring in Cossie to replace Bishop won’t be too far away.

  35. They need to get a “Hole in the Wall” (WIN program on Wednesday nights) program with some Labor and Liberal politicians 😉 …. could be almost as much fun as watching QT 😉

  36. In parliament Bishop denied plagiarising the Wall Street Journal and said she was quoting some big wig in the US. Swan tabled both the journal and Bishop’s speech. She surely will have to clarify things tomorrow. The government will chase her on this. She is proving to be a liability already.

  37. Ms Mesmer will fall back on the old favourite of the Rat Man Govt. “I know nothing – it was a staffer”.

    If the media vultures smell blood she is in deep brown stuff. 🙂

  38. You know, the fact that the media are focusing on these inconsequential ‘gaffes’ which really mean very very little instead of doing some serious analysis on Turnbull’s outrageous policy to copy the US govt on bailing out banks (that don’t need it in this country) is really telling. I think Mesmerelda is a very poor choice for Shadow Treasurer – she is clearly out of her depth, but really, playing gotcha politics is just pathetic. I wish we’d see some actual analysis and probing done!

  39. To tell youse the truth I couldn’t nominate the Reserve Bank rate either. All I know is I put the guilts on my bank the other day and got a one-off .45 reduction instead of a .25 reduction. Still far too high in my opinion.

    This “she made a gaffe” scenario is ugly and tiresome, as is the Wall St. Journal stuff… except… that Bishop tried to turn it into a “smear” by Swan, and it turned out to be true. She has to decide whether she’s a Treasury Bitch or a private school gel prone to fainting fits of the vapours when those nasty Labor ruffians turn it on.Even Malcolm “Man Of The People and Pensioners” Turnbull’s “gaffe” on who’s who in the footy finals world was forgiveable, up to a point… except… they were his local teams.

    I wouldn’t have the foggiest about either of them: footy or RB rates.

    Having said that… my, my, Julie DID look filthy (to coin a phrase) didn’t she, when Swanee took her to task?

    NAIRU, anyone?

  40. No 638

    Bishop really should know what the official interest rate is. As unfortunate as it is to say this: the worst Treasurer in history is correct.

    Nevertheless, I can’t blame Turnbull for being out of touch with the AFL/NRL. Two bogan sports. 🙂

  41. Diog, unfortunately Cossie has also reached his own Peter’s Principle. But this is the real McCoy of Peter’s Principle, namely he has reached his own level of wimpiness. Even Malcolm Farr now is calling him as having no ticker.

  42. OT, but I still have $165 left from my complimentary Maxine McKew bet last election. Has to be re-bet or else its not claimable.

    Should I put it all-up on the Warriors for NRL Premiership?

    I saw them thrash the Doggies a month or so ago at ANZ Stadium and they really impressed me.

  44. [Bishop really should know what the official interest rate is. As unfortunate as it is to say this: the worst Treasurer in history is correct.]
    Cossie had nothing to do with it GP.

  45. [Even Malcolm Farr now is calling {Costello} as having no ticker]

    The Liberals must (have) be(en) desperate to consider old Custard Tip their saviour. Not to mention chronically poor judges of character.

  49. BB

    The Doggies did run last. Put it on the Sharkies. 🙂

    Talcum’s gaffe is nothing, Ms Mesmer’s gaffes would have been forgotten tomorrow. The problem she has is that she did not say oops I stuffed up. Blaming staff and playing word games is plain stupid.

  50. That Mark Reilly on 7 noos is truly a Lib stooge. At least Laurie on chanel 9 presented a balanced report showing both sides of parliament slogging it out re pensions and making their main points. Reilly was just wanting to make the government look bad with leaked cabinet documents saying they considered the same thing the Libs proposed.
    Come to think of it doesn’t that show the government are consistent and have thought it through?

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