Essential Research: 57-43

The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43, remembering that this is a two-week rolling average which was half conducted before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson. Also included (just from the last week’s sample) are various questions on leadership and one on industrial relations (45 per cent think the government moving “too slowly”).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

762 comments on “Essential Research: 57-43”

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  2. The last questioner was left shaking his head at Turnbull’s answer.

    This time tomorrow he will probably be still shaking his head wondering what in blazes Turnbull was waffling on about.

  4. William was your sigh re my 613?

    Fiz- Turnbull has an extremely expressive persona-contrast that with rudd’s much more wooden delivery
    I think talcums approval rating is going to come close to rudds sooner rather later

  5. Hey William. how’s things been from your POV since the move to crikey!. Are you happy with the move (serious question)

    I think it’s gone quite well

  6. I reckon 75% of the questions would have been fluff. Can’t remember one answer from Turnbull that actually proposed anything of substance, it was pretty much just all about how the government was doing a bad job.

  7. GB, you can safely tape over that guff without ever watching it and never ever have to wonder if maybe, just maybe, you might have missed anything.

    I can guarantee that that was a totally wasted 60 minutes.

  8. Turnbull did a great job, tonight I am liking the bloke the more I see him.

    We’re lucky to have him, god Abbott or Robb could be leader if Malcolm wasnt!

    I suspect Turnbull will make the Federal Liberals much more competative in the months ahead.

  9. [I suspect Turnbull will make the Federal Liberals much more competative in the months ahead.]

    Maybe, but the election isn’t for another 2 years.

  11. Gusface @ 654,

    [I think talcums approval rating is going to come close to rudds sooner rather later]

    If Turnbull keeps that sort of thing going, he will already have got as close to Rudd’s approval rating as he ever will.

  12. Gusface – again I agree. As I said earlier, he is definitely charismatic and I think we will find women are the big group that moves when it comes to approval ratings. But he has a murky underbelly that has shown he is also capable of being conniving and vindictive. He will also go to extraordinary lengths to make things work out in his favour. Will he have enough self control to keep that hidden?

  15. He will also go to extraordinary lengths to make things work out in his favour. Will he have enough self control to keep that hidden?

    well, that nice Mr Rudd did 😉

  16. Scorpio
    once again its perception-the public see the image ,not the in depth analysis at places like here, and turnbull is a performer that rudd can not be

    Glen
    all turnbull has to do now is repudiate the ugly side of howardism and I think he will gain a chunk of the middle ground

    Fiz
    Mrs g didnt like talcum till tonight-now she thinks he is quite funny and seems like a decent bloke

  19. WOW! Turnbull did a HUMANITIES answer to the HECS question.

    The lady complained about having a huge HECS debt, so Turnbull interpreted this as assuming the woman wanted her education to be completely free!

  21. I hope Rudd doesn’t wast his time meeting with the US Treasury Secretary.

    From this article, it is clear that Mr Paulson hasn’t a clue what is happening and what to do about is.

    I was a bit concerned before. Now I am really worried. This joker is being compared with Rumsfeld, Chaney & Bush.

    [Until last week, I was in a minority of one in arguing that Mr Paulson was personally responsible for suddenly turning the painful but manageable credit crunch that had been grinding away 18 months in the background of the US economy into a global catastrophe. Mr Paulson’s appearances on Capitol Hill, marked by the characteristic Bush-era combination of arrogance and incompetence, are turning my once-outlandish view into conventional wisdom: Henry Paulson is to finance what Donald Rumsfeld was to military strategy, Dick Cheney to geopolitics and Michael Chertoff to flood defence.

    Mr Paulson may be a former chairman of Goldman Sachs, but as US Treasury Secretary he does not know what he is doing. His recent blunders, starting with the “rescue” of Fannie Mae, have triggered unintended consequences around the world, resulting in the death-spiral of financial values. But last Friday Mr Paulson outdid even these Rumsfeldian achievements, when he demanded $700 billion from Congress for a “comprehensive and fundamental” solution to the global financial crisis, without apparently having any idea of what he would actually do.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24399961-23850,00.html

  22. Turnbull is not an unknown to the public. He’s been around for awhile now. Why should he becoming leader make any difference to the public’s perception of him? Both Nelson and Rudd on the other hand were unknowns relatively speaking.
    We’ve already seen polls on Turnbull. People have definite opinions on him. I don’t recall the polls suggesting that people are asking Malcolm who?
    Just one last thing on the Q&A, how many people would be watching it really?

  23. [he is definitely charismatic and I think we will find women are the big group that moves when it comes to approval ratings]

    Sometimes what men think is chrasimatic women find creepy.

    The people have seen Turnbull around for a while now, especially as a minister under Howard. Which begs the question how come his personal ratings are so awful – scored very badly on arrogance and very very low on turstworthy/honesty not to mention the other traits. People have seen the real Turnbull already. That would indicate many have made up their mind already so he has his work cut out. He will have to do a few more of these PR type shows to get them to think he is something else.

    But he need not fear I guess as I am sure the murdoch media and ABC will continue to act as his campaign team up until election day to remake his image.

  25. As for my opinion on Turnbull, I like him but then Iliked Nelson as a person to. I don’t like their policies and wouldn’t vote for them on that basis.

  27. I fail to see how people thought he was charismatic or genuine. A subjective thing I guess. There is something about Turnbull’s way of speaking and mannerism that make him seem fake or disengenuous and just a little creepy. I suspect thats where the high dishonesty rating might come from. Unless they have long memories of his water and pulp mill ministry days.

    But different strokes for different folks.

  29. [There is something about Turnbull’s way of speaking and mannerism that make him seem fake or disengenuous and just a little creepy]

    Too many jokes as well, just avoiding any serious stuff. When he finally did get in depth he ended up waffling on about the mortgage market for 5 minutes a la big Kim.

  30. Shows on,
    As someone with a huge HEX (intended sp) debt (and incidentally in my 50s), I also object to the dichotomy of either HECs or no HECS. I am happy to pay my HECS debt, but it gets awfully hard when the fact that I am paying this debt isn’t taken into account for all the other to-ing and fro-ing of my entitlements. For example, I am now expected to support my daughter, aged 20, who is studying interstate, while paying over $200 pf in HECS. Add to this, the stoopid indexing that added nearly $2000 to my HECS debt while I was on a govt funded post-grad scholarship. And as a mature aged person coming back into the workforce after long years raising a disable child…

    Like I said, happy to pay the HECS debt, but please, can they cut me a little slack due to the fact that I am supporting an adult daughter at uni and caring for a disabled (now) adult?

    When I started my degree, about 12 years ago, there were heaps of mature age students. Really mature age, not just 2 years out for high school. In the school where I studied, about 1/3 of the total cohort. I look out at the class I teach now, and there would barely be 10% real mature age students. Maybe this is due to the catch up (people my age who missed out first time and have come back to do it), but I really think the HECS conditions have turned people off.

    Sorry, enough personal whining, off my hobby horse, and back to grumbling about Allbull.

  31. “Sometimes what men think is chrasimatic women find creepy.”

    Well Thomas, I’m a woman and yes, I’d call him charismatic, not creepy. I just happen to know a bit about his underbelly and I can’t discount that when weighing him up.

    I think it would be foolish to underestimate him. You can be sure that the ALP aren’t. That said though, he still represents a party whose policies have been rejected by Jill and Joe Citizen. I’m not sure he can drag all those conservatives to the centre.

  32. The big test for turnbull will be if he goes on Rove 🙂

    (scuttlebutt suggests young talcum is aiming on a media ‘blitz’ to reinforce his personable side.)…. for those with long memories tintin followed much the same path upon his elevation to opposition leader.

  33. [Shows on,
    As someone with a huge HEX (intended sp) debt (and incidentally in my 50s), I also object to the dichotomy of either HECs or no HECS. I am happy to pay my HECS debt, but it gets awfully hard when the fact that I am paying this debt isn’t taken into account for all the other to-ing and fro-ing of my entitlements.]

    I agree with you, I have no problem with HECS in principle, the problem is that the fees have increased at a ridiculous rate over the last decade. To compensate, the previous government simply lifted the pay level that payback has to start. But all this did was make students get ever bigger debts that they will take longer to pay back.

  34. [I’m not sure he can drag all those conservatives to the centre]

    I agree, I think that’s a far bigger battle for him than anything else. The leadership spill was only seperated by a handful of votes in the end.

  37. I wonder if our own Family First Senator Fielding has been indulging in a bit of this?

    [A YOUTUBE video has surfaced showing Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin being blessed in her hometown church by a Kenyan pastor who prayed for her protection from “witchcraft” as she prepared to seek higher office three years ago.

    Governor Palin is shown standing with her hands open before Bishop Thomas Muthee in the Wasilla Assembly of God church as he asked Jesus Christ to keep her safe from “every form of witchcraft”, the Associated Press reported. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24401645-12377,00.html

    Remember, she could be just one heartbeat away from having her well manicured finger on the “red Button”. Scary, huh.

  40. Well at least she’s safe from witch craft, so that cannot be an excuse for pushing the button lol!

    Scorpio, but what does this have to do with policy? American elections are sadly all about smeer and both sides do this and both sides are wrong to do it they should stick to the issues.

  41. When Tony Jones questioned if he had had a puff recently or before he went on tonight, Turnbull evaded the question.

    Probably the first to “admit” it, but most probably not the first to inhale.

    I think that Nelson mentioned that he had a puff or two at Uni.

  44. glen
    i was talking to my brother in canberra about holt today as it turns out
    1.he was an early environmentalist in a 60s way
    2.he certainly lived a casual lifestyle and considering the times may have had a puff

    but kudos to talcum for being forthright(though the cynic in me says that he was simply clearing the decks of any “unpalatable” revelations)

  45. though the cynic in me says that he was simply clearing the decks of any “unpalatable” revelations

    Like I said, smart guy.

    Inhaling is one thing, lining up on Ita’s stomach while Kerry watched from behind the wardrobe is oh so much harder to sell to the target demo 😉

  46. “Inhaling is one thing, lining up on Ita’s stomach while Kerry watched from behind the wardrobe is oh so much harder to sell to the target demo ”

    Perhaps Mal’s not the only one who’s been inhaling?

  50. I don’t think thats true TP… I think he will do quite well… I don’t believe it will be enough to overcome the massive hurdles he needs to jump in order win… But I truly think he will start off Ok and slowly become quite a problem for Rudd

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