The West Australian reports the latest Westpoll survey of 400 voters has the state Liberals leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, up from 55-45 in early December. A question on preferred Labor leader predictably has Alannah MacTiernan in front with 26 per cent, ahead of Mark McGowan on 16 per cent, Michelle Roberts and incumbent Eric Ripper on 12 per cent and deputy leader Roger Cook (who entered parliament at the September election) on 2 per cent. Colin Barnett leads Eric Ripper as preferred premier 57 per cent to 13 per cent. The West’s Robert Taylor writes:
The problem Eric Ripper and Alannah MacTiernan have within Labor is that they both come from a Centre faction that no longer exists. Without factional backers, the more likely long-term scenario is that the next Labor premier will either be the Left’s Roger Cook or the Right’s Ben Wyatt. The problem Labor has is that neither of the two is ready to assume the leadership, and it must find someone capable of leading the party into an election, be it a by-election or general contest, at a moment’s notice, such is the knife-edge situation in the State Parliament …
After the election loss, (Ripper) was seen as more acceptable to the two factions, who were not impressed with Ms MacTiernan’s efforts to reform the factional system. But with the Ray report into the party’s election failings criticising its factional warfare, Ms MacTiernan’s reformist zeal might win her some favour at the national level. Few political observers believe Mr Ripper will lead Labor to the next election if the Barnett Government goes its full four-year term. It therefore comes down to a matter of when Mr Ripper will step down or be pushed aside in favour of the next leader, and whether that leader will be Ms MacTiernan or one of the new generation.
No doubt this poll was taken just prior to the merde hitting the colling device at BHP and the inital response by Barnett – I’d like to see the polling once the full extent of any rescue package that the State Govt will provide and what services will be affected by the 3% savings by Govt Deptartments. If frontline services will only affect the Metro area, and the Regionals are Quarentined – expect the mother of all backlashes, alll at the foot of the Nationals.
This poll just goes to show that Barnett will be able to govern without the Nats the next time WA goes to the polls…that’s what you get for making Eric Ripper the Opp Leader lol!
[This poll just goes to show that Barnett will be able to govern without the Nats the next time WA goes to the polls…that’s what you get for making Eric Ripper the Opp Leader lol!]
Glen, don’t count your chickens too soon – This is still honeymoon period stuff and the full impact of the BHP Mines Closure hasn’t sunk in yet, plus Rio Tinto slashing jobs – the defining moment will be their first budget, this will make or break Barnett. I predict the latter.
taken on 400 voters it’s really hardly worth it, things will settle, especially as how much has to be paid out for the nats over time with money tightening, this will be interesting by the next state election.
[taken on 400 voters it’s really hardly worth it, things will settle, especially as how much has to be paid out for the nats over time with money tightening, this will be interesting by the next state election.]
I agree Judith, Royalties For Regions has already been exposed as being a slush fund for Nationals held electorates getting a larger proportion of funding as opposed to non national regional seats held by Labor’s Vince Catania and Carol Martin – two areas hardest hits by the slowdown in the Mining Industry. And this is also going to affect the Metro area with a lot of these workers being Flyy In-Fly Out contractors as well.
anyone else seen where Roger Cook’s new office is? Heres a tip – its not in Kwinara.
Is the answer 5 Harvest Terrace, Perth? If so, his parliamentary web page assures us it’s “temporary”.
[anyone else seen where Roger Cook’s new office is? Heres a tip – its not in Kwinana.]
“Averagejoe”,
Note that it his is TEMPORAY” Electorate Office – there are several members who are using their Parliament Office as their Electorate Office as the Dept of Premier & Cabinet, hasn’t located premises in the electorate and this can take some time. Even the Memeber for West Swan is at Parliament House. At one stage, before Jaye Radisich moved out to Ellenbrook (which Frank Alban has inherited) from Midland, her temporary electorate office was also at Parliament House. So there is nothing sinister there at all.
Nice try at creating a non issue 🙂
http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/web/newwebparl.nsf/iframewebpages/Legislative+Assembly+-+Current+Members
didn’t look too temporary, it has huge signs with his name and member for kwinana on it.
William,
“Snap” you must have posted this while I was writing my response. Great minds etc.
[didn’t look too temporary, it has huge signs with his name and member for kwinana on it.]
That’s beside the point – all State Govt offices need sinage.
Keep trying old boy 🙂
hmm, that should be signage.
And of course you need signage, how do you expect people to find his his electorate office, by mental teleapthy ? Those signs can easily be removed once his permant electorate office is established.
well, at the very least they’ve got a 30 minute journey at the moment 🙂
[well, at the very least they’ve got a 30 minute journey at the moment ]
Kwinana was a new seat, so there wasn’t an established electorate office in the electorate where the new member could move in, unlike Swan Hills which was empty by the eve of the Election since Jaye was the retiring member. and re the 30 minutes travel time – his constituents have a nice new train line to get there 🙂
Excellent news! Barnett has extended his lead as preferred premier. Ripper is so hopeless even Buswell would beat him in a state election. God knows how many state by-elections will occur in WA this year!
[Excellent news! Barnett has extended his lead as preferred premier. Ripper is so hopeless even Buswell would beat him in a state election. God knows how many state by-elections will occur in WA this year!]
Do you mean by Liberal/National members ? 🙂
The Westpoll also says the Green primary vote is down from 9% to 6%. Thats almost even with the National Party on 4%.
My greatest dream would be for Kim Beazley to lead the opposition against Colin Barnett in 2012. That would be entertaining!
It’s nice to see our conservative friends having something to crow about for once. They certainly can’t do so in regard to the federal scene. If Barnett performs well and does what he said he’d do then he should do well next election, if not it will be ggodnight nurse, it’s really as simple as that. This poll though, so early after the election, is meaningless in the context of the next election. I have no doubt he is popular now but that is now.
As for by -elections what Labor goose is going to quit politics while the polls are like this? If a conservative quits then nothing is gained if another conservative wins the by – election.
I don’t think Carps will hang around for much longer.
[I don’t think Carps will hang around for much longer.]
He has publicly stated he will stay for a full time as Member for Willagee – unlike the Member for Mayo 🙂
Perhaps Carps wants to get revenge on Barnett.
From the looks of it they could do alot worse than carpenter comming back. I say this as an outside and feel free to corret me but he seemed like an alright bloke. Alannah MacTiernan seems like the best alternative in his absence. Isn’t she from the left however?
[From the looks of it they could do alot worse than carpenter comming back. I say this as an outside and feel free to corret me but he seemed like an alright bloke. Alannah MacTiernan seems like the best alternative in his absence. Isn’t she from the left however?]
I believe she is from the Left faction, hence ripper, being from the Centre is leader.
[ God knows how many state by-elections will occur in WA this year! ]
It won’t be good for the Liberals, though. If there’s a by-election in Fremantle, the Greens would have to be a chance; if there’s one in Kalgoorlie… get the popcorn. (Labor as favourite, although you can never be sure out there.) Most ex-ministers that might want to leave are in such safe seats (Willagee, Armadale, Belmont etc) that they won’t go Liberal, even if there’s a reasonable sized swing in that direction.
FC
Alannah is also from the Centre – that’s if it still exists!
[Alannah is also from the Centre – that’s if it still exists!]
ahh, thanks for that – even though I’m an ALP member, I’m not all that Au Fait in who is in which faction.
Oh and I must say that The West under the acting editorship of Bob Cronin has become quite readable – there are still small pockets of the influence of Armstrong, mainly Paul Murray & Rovert Taylor, but at least the general articles are not shrill pieces with Headlines aimed at 6PR listeners, it seems the Sunday Crimes has regained that mantle.
Robert Taylor on October 7, 2008, shortly after Ripper became leader:
[While (MacTiernan) is notionally from the Centre, that faction lost a lot of its power after the TWU decamped to the Right and with the departure from the party of CFMEU boss Kevin Reynolds, leaving the remaining union votes as independents.
So when Ms MacTiernan met the Left, now dominated by the Miscellaneous Workers Union secretary Dave Kelly, to try to sound out their support, she could muster few votes of her own even though it’s said she was the most popular candidate.
Labor sources say that Ms MacTiernan was asked to renounce her push for reform before the faction would even countenance her candidacy. She refused and at that stage her run ended. She withdrew, leaving Eric Ripper unchallenged.]
So it seems the Centre was associated with Reynolds/McDonald, who are out of the party now, the TWU, which has joined with the Right, and (in WA at least) the Australian Workers Union – who I guess are now “independents”.
[So it seems the Centre was associated with Reynolds/McDonald, who are out of the party now, the TWU, which has joined with the Right, and (in WA at least) the Australian Workers Union – who I guess are now “independents”.]
Ahh, clear as mud 🙂 and of course there are the remanants of the “New Right”, of Michelle Roberts and from memory Margaret Quirk, and is factionally aligned with Mike Dean of the WA Police Union and the defeated independent candidate forKwinana.
That MacTiernan is more favoured as leader doesn’t surprise me in the least… what a shame.
Frank,
As a native WA-ite you’re probably the best one to ask: Do you view Ripper as a long-term leader for the ALP or just a stopgap? From the vantage point of the east coast it looks like the latter- in which case there might be a fair bit of pain ahead for Labor as the usual party infighting occurs. In which case who do you think would be the best leader? Is Carpenter still a chance to come back? Or do you think Ripper’s there for the long haul?
Carps as leader will be Barnett’s greatest asset.
[As a native WA-ite you’re probably the best one to ask: Do you view Ripper as a long-term leader for the ALP or just a stopgap? From the vantage point of the east coast it looks like the latter- in which case there might be a fair bit of pain ahead for Labor as the usual party infighting occurs. In which case who do you think would be the best leader? Is Carpenter still a chance to come back? Or do you think Ripper’s there for the long haul?]
Ripper is definately a Stop-Gap leader until closer to the election. And there is no way Carpenter will return as leader, he’s done his dash both within the party and with the public, who found his bluntness a turn off – when in reality it should be a plus.
And Bree, Barnett is Barnett’s own worst enemy – he is aloof, he is only popular because the pain of the first budget hasn’t been revealed, and with Buswell’s unwillingness to reveal where the cuts will be, then I reckon things won’t be well for this Governmet. and all it takes is for 1 by-election to go the ALP’s way and it’s goodbye Barnett
Frank,next time you bump into Eric Ripper you might suggest he take up chair sniffing to lift his popularity!
The chair-sniffing thing has failed to derail Troy Buswell. Now as Treasurer, Troy Buswell is well and truly more statesman like than the previous Treasurer.
Frank, the ALP lost. Can’t you accept that fact? 😀
Geepee
Who would know?
The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from man to pig again. but already it was impossible to say which was which.
It’s dispiriting really.
I have heard some people speak twaddle Bree you take first prize,one by election and Barnetts an also ran,which he and the bunch of mumblers should have been,a disfunctional rabble at the best of times
They look pretty functional at the moment.
Glinn Mgraw, you realise the arrow in your avatar is pointing to the left?
Barnett will vote no and Ripper will vote yes. This is my prediction for the DLS referendum in WA. I think the no vote will win because most people in referendums, vote the same way as the leader of the incumbent instead of the leader of the opposition.
Oz, do you realise that is the point of the avatar?
[Barnett will vote no and Ripper will vote yes. This is my prediction for the DLS referendum in WA. I think the no vote will win because most people in referendums, vote the same way as the leader of the incumbent instead of the leader of the opposition.]
Bree, the 1984 Referendum, the Ptremier was one Brian Burke, and it was still defeated 🙂
Keep trying 🙂
[Bree, the 1984 Referendum, the Premier was one Brian Burke, and it was still defeated :-)]
While the leader in 1992 was one Carmen Lawrence, BOTH ALP Premiers. :-), while in 1975 it was Sir Charles Court, so the Referendum wasn’t successful by EITHER Party.
Why are the people of WA so opposed to daylight saving? Is it typical stuff like farmers not wanting to milk their cows in the dark, or something more uniquely West Australian?
[Oz, do you realise that is the point of the avatar?]
Just checking.
MDM at 45: There’s a few reasons. Partly it’s the weather (it gets very hot in summer, and DLS pushes the hot part of the day an hour further into the late afternoon / evening); partly it’s that most of the population lives in the west of the state, where the sun sets later anyway (it’s no coincidence that Matt Birney, who got this trial going, comes from Kalgoorlie, in the east), and partly because the state extends so far north. Somewhere like Broome or Kununurra, there’s less seasonal variation of day length, so the time change is more jarring – same reason why Qld and NT don’t have it.
(There may also be straw-man arguments spread by the pro-DLS lobby about cows and curtains, or Perth being dullsville and scared of change. Pay them no attention. 😉 )
Funny story, by the way: the Nullarbor has its own time zone. Near the SA border, the physical time is very different from either WA or SA (based on Perth and Adelaide respectively), so they have their semi-official time zone, 45 min ahead of WA and 45 min behind SA. It’s like year-round DLS, for the only part of the state that really needs it.
Reporter: Why are so opposed to daylight saving, Sir Joh?
Bjelke-Petersen: Because the sun shines out of my posterior and I’m not getting up an hour earlier for anyone.