Newspoll: 58-42

Newspoll has come a day early – or six days late, depending on your perspective. Key findings of the survey, which was conducted over the past two days:

• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent‘s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).

• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.

• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.

• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.

• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.

Other news:

• The Greens’ parliamentary leader in New South Wales, Lee Rhiannon, has quit her Legislative Council seat and declared her intention to run for the Senate (UPDATE: Not quite – she has “informed the party that when federal elections are called, I’ll resign to stand for Federal Parliament, if I win preselection”). Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald says Rhiannon “appears to be positioning herself to replace the party’s federal leader”. She may have her work cut out: the only time the Greens have won a seat in the state was when Kerry Nettle got in on One Nation preferences in 2001. Generally the problem has been that Labor are too strong in the state for the Greens to get ahead of their third candidate. Two scenarios for success suggest themselves: one involves the Greens gaining at least 5 per cent on the Coalition on the primary vote, which would raise the possibility of a result of three Labor, two Liberal, one Greens; the other is a double dissolution.

• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports the Coalition has been “desperate to find a high-profile candidate to take on Maxine McKew in the Sydney seat of Bennelong”, which it hopes “will be enough for Labor to consider transferring McKew to a safer seat”. It doesn’t sound like they’re having much luck: among those to have knocked back the offer are Kerry Chikarovski, former Opposition Leader and member for the locally situated state seat of Lane Cove, and Andrew Tink, former Shadow Police Minister and recent departee from state politics.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 61-39, recording no change from last week. Nothing on the stimulus package (Essential Research advises there will be a “truckload” of such data next week), but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,047 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. From the Newspoll article:

    Mr Turnbull showed no sign yesterday of backing away from his opposition to the package.

    “The problem with the package is it is putting an absolutely unsustainable burden of debt on future generations,” the Liberal leader said on the Ten Network.

    “Think about this: we are going to have to look our children and their children in the eye and say: ‘We have put tens of billions, $200 billion of debt, probably more, on your shoulders, and we did it so we could send everyone in Australia a cheque for $950.’

    Funny that the difference between Rudd and Turnbull is 20b or thereabouts. A fraction of GDT I’d expect. What an admission. Turnbull is dead meat.

  2. [Funny that the difference between Rudd and Turnbull is 20b or thereabouts. A fraction of GDT I’d expect. What an admission. Turnbull is dead meat.]
    Also, young voters seem to be most supportive of the package. So Turnbull’s argument that that young people will suffer most from the debt seems to be moot.


  3. [Finger on the trigger … Mr Turnbull starts the heats for the Bondi Beach Ocean Race yesterday.]
    Ahh, so that’s where Turnbull was yesterday!

  4. [Ahh, so that’s where Turnbull was yesterday!]

    Yep, you would’ve thought that he would cancel that and go to Melbourne with the PM as a show of support.

  5. Somebody should tell Xenophon that there are tax cuts coming.

    Do they give these guys a personal economics briefing? I reckon they should send one of Henry’s men around to give a one on one economic briefing in simple enough terms that they can understand what different sorts of action can have. Seems Xenophon doesn’t get it at all. Or is just preening himself in public to increase his profile.

    Turnbull is lucky to get away with 58/42. I predict that his personal rating will get worse at the next Newspoll, Rudd’s will increase and so will the TPP.

    Wonder if Xenophon will take any notice of the will of the people?

  6. Many young people do not think past next week. I’m not knocking them – that’s just the way young people think. The fact that students stand to receive a payment for the first time in yonks must be a boost to the government.

    I must admit I thought that the opposition would have received a bigger kicking in this poll although the gap is still rather large.

  7. I think the bigger kicking is coming. Next Newspoll will I think see him sink some more.

    Turnbull has just got to the top of the slippery dip and has begun the downward journey. No defying gravity now, he has gone beyond the patience of the electorate with inept petty political positioning one too many times.

    Just imagine how much damage a blocked Stimulus Package will cost them!

  10. I don’t think there’s any doubt that BB will pass the legislation with a tweek or two. It now look like Fielding to:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/09/2485709.htm?section=justin

    That only leaves X. Any reading on how this maverick will vote?

    I’m off to zzzzzzzz land. The bushfire fatalities have reached 96 and I’m sure the toll will rise. A very sad day for us all. The British PM has offered assistance. Who’d have thunk it.

  13. Meanwhile, back at our war. Reading the following articles you would be wondering why we are over there at all.

    Holbrooke ‘examining the very objectives’ cf Afghanistan, et cetera.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/opinion/08aswany.html?_r=1

    Karzai out of favour in US now. (Bush/Howard tolerated his hugely corrupt government)

    http://community.nytimes.com/article/comments/2009/02/08/world/asia/08karzai.html#postComment

    Egyptians are already going off Obama. Why? Not a peep on the Israeli invasion of Gaza and not a peep on a corrupt, anti-democratic government in Egypt.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/opinion/08aswany.html?_r=1

  15. Certainly not a bad result for the Government.

    [ Seems Xenophon doesn’t get it at all. Or is just preening himself in public to increase his profile.]

    Yep… got it in one.

  17. I wrote previously that politics is all about timing. Turnbull’s latest timing has been appalling.

    1. Where was he yesterday? No images of him whatsoever at the scene of the Vic bushfire, with the victims, words of comfort, shoulder to cry on etc etc. It will only reinforce his merchant banker image. Not good.

    2. The Vic bushfire has changed the mood of the nation. The nation is now in the giving mood. The Rudd Stimulus package fits perfectly in this giving mood. For Turnbull to argue against it now is almost like arguing against motherhood. Not good.

  18. The death toll is now 104.

    The SMH has an article citing the CSIRO regarding climate change and the threat of more natural disasters. It also mentions Brown’s comments and does explicitly state that he didn’t say “CC caused the bushfires”. The editorial in the SMH also makes the same point as Brown.

    This is why you talk about it straight away to get people thinking and get people to understand what potentially lies ahead.

  20. Even though Malcolm Turnbull said “We aren’t trying to be popular” you knew this was a completely political decision that resulted it an enormous backfire.

    How can Shanahan comment on the poll when last week he was blubbing about Turnbull’s great trap.

  23. good morning bludgers, the toll gets worse and worse, i didnt turn the telly or radio on this morning ‘cos i didnt want to know but him next door came banging on the front door at 6 30 to tell me.

  24. The talkback radio, straw polls and internet polls gave Dennis some hope. The smiles on the faces of Opposition members boded well. At last they’d done something. Rudd on the ropes. Labor members out in the electorates worried. An undercurrent of pessimism in the government. Turnbull had intercepted a pass and was streaking for the opposite try line etc. etc.

    Sadly for Shanahan he now has the professional, reasonably scientific Newspoll – you know, the one he owns – and suddenly he looks sillier and more cockeyed optimistic over nothing more than wet dreams than ever before.

  25. Greensborough Growler;

    Your comments should be directed towards The Guardian, the UK Meteorological Office, Oxford University, the University of Southern Queensland, the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, the Bureau of Meteorology, the Sydney Morning Herald and the CSIRO.

    There’s nothing politically contentious about saying that with CC we will see more of these disasters and they will be worse. It’s the only responsible thing to do. Hiding from it will achieve nothing but MORE DEATHS. We want over this last night. I don’t think you’ve read the discussion there.

    The government commissioned reports said that climate change would lead to more extreme weather conditions and increase the risk of natural disasters. I understand it’s difficult when you realise that you’ve been sold down the river and the younger generations of this country have been consigned to more deaths and tragedies from more extreme weather, but it’s not too late.

  29. The guy on News Breakfast is Victoria’s Emergency Services Minister. Do you hope his “f*cking soapbox” burns down as well, Greensborough Growler?

  31. The chance of that happening will be significantly higher for me then they were for you.

    But yeah, I guess we should hope that a various array of climate scientists, journalists, commissioners and journalists will die for warning of what lies ahead.

  32. What the hell is wrong with Turnbull? He’s getting killed on this. Rudd is doing what a PM should. Gordon Brown seems to be showing more interest in the bushfires than Turnbull. Is he using the George Bush “flyover” response to Hurricane Katrina?

  34. I doubt Turnball will bother going to rural Victoria, he’s much more at home in the poverty stricken area of Rose Bay/Vaucluse! Yep, an ocean swim race in Bondi was far more important than a national bushfire tragedy. No wonder he’s 20 points behind Rudd.
    Gordon Brown is going to help out, the Brits presumably can send over some search & rescue teams.

  35. Well so much for my prediction of not much change in newspoll… 🙂

    And c’mon GG I didn’t think Browns coments were needed yesterday either, but we don’t have to wish harm on people do we? Oz is just arguing his point.

  36. Katrina was what finally killed off Bush’s presidency. Turnbull’s suicidal response to Rudd’s GFC package looks even worse now. If he combines that with a heartless and politically stupid no-show in rural Victoria, he’s kissed his job goodbye. I bet Joe Hockey would have been there.

  37. this is the point re Turnbull i was trying to get across yesterday, he’ll swan around at the silvertail money raising charity balls for the victims, rubbing shoulders with the elite and feel he’s doing a wonderful job of helping out, as far as going out in the smoke, dirt and soot and have a weeping blackened victim cry in his arms–well that might dirty his nice clean shirt.

  39. Turnball, who claims only he can save the children of Australia from crippling debt, is humiliated in the latest opinion poll! LMAO

  41. Amigo GG,

    [“f*cking soapbox”]

    Things must be desperate. i thought our cuzs over the Tasman were desperate with the sheep.

  47. If Turnbull went people like you would say he would be playing politics….
    This isnt a national tragedy it is a Victorian one anyway Evan…

  50. Glen, it’s a national tragedy!
    So you’re arguing Rudd shouldn’t be there?
    BTW: Preferred PM
    Rudd 62
    Turnball 20
    That says it all LOL LOL LOL

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