Newspoll: 58-42

Newspoll has come a day early – or six days late, depending on your perspective. Key findings of the survey, which was conducted over the past two days:

• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent‘s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).

• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.

• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.

• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.

• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.

Other news:

• The Greens’ parliamentary leader in New South Wales, Lee Rhiannon, has quit her Legislative Council seat and declared her intention to run for the Senate (UPDATE: Not quite – she has “informed the party that when federal elections are called, I’ll resign to stand for Federal Parliament, if I win preselection”). Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald says Rhiannon “appears to be positioning herself to replace the party’s federal leader”. She may have her work cut out: the only time the Greens have won a seat in the state was when Kerry Nettle got in on One Nation preferences in 2001. Generally the problem has been that Labor are too strong in the state for the Greens to get ahead of their third candidate. Two scenarios for success suggest themselves: one involves the Greens gaining at least 5 per cent on the Coalition on the primary vote, which would raise the possibility of a result of three Labor, two Liberal, one Greens; the other is a double dissolution.

• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports the Coalition has been “desperate to find a high-profile candidate to take on Maxine McKew in the Sydney seat of Bennelong”, which it hopes “will be enough for Labor to consider transferring McKew to a safer seat”. It doesn’t sound like they’re having much luck: among those to have knocked back the offer are Kerry Chikarovski, former Opposition Leader and member for the locally situated state seat of Lane Cove, and Andrew Tink, former Shadow Police Minister and recent departee from state politics.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 61-39, recording no change from last week. Nothing on the stimulus package (Essential Research advises there will be a “truckload” of such data next week), but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,047 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. funny that Glen, it may be a Victorian tragedy but Victoria does happen to be part of Australia and Turnbull is the federal leader of her majesty’s Australian opposition, yes Glen if he went there today after the delay and a bit of public bitching it would be playing politics, YESTERDAY HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE, Rudd and other leaders were—where was Turnbull? at a nice cool beach firing the starting gun for a bloody swimming race!!!

  2. While the Coalition continues to forlornly boast about “Costello’s surplus”, their wastefulness is put into perspective.

    [Access Economics’ appraisal last November {2008} of the Coalition’s former approach to {infrastructure}.

    “We pissed the good years up against the wall in the usual ill-disciplined blowout of tax cuts and big spending during the boom,” it said.]

    as quoted by Phillip Coorey, Sydney Morning Herald, 9 February 2009

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/leaders-see-a-rescue-package-full-of-ideology/2009/02/08/1234027847287.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

  3. How long is it since soap came in boxes?

    As I said here last week, Turbull is playing a long game. He knows he will take a short-term hit on this, but he’s gambling on Rudd failing and the voters turning when he says “I told you so.” It’s a big gamble but when you’re behind you have to gamble.

    It’s interesting that the article Judith cites is headed “Fire starters will face murder charges” but the text of the article doesn’t support the headline. What it actually says is: “Mr Walshe said an offender implicated in the fatal fires could be charged with the offence of arson causing death, a crime with a maximum penalty of 25 years in jail.” So it’s a serious crime, but it’s NOT murder. Murder requires INTENT to kill, that’s what the word means. And in case, it’s easy to talk tough now, when they catch one of these firebugs, and it turns out to be some pathetic 18yo retarded masturbater, as they usually are, all this talk will evaporate.

  4. Judith yesterday we still didnt know the extent of the death toll and if anything Rudd should have invited Malcolm to show how bipartisan he is…

  5. Glen Turnbull shouldnt have needed an invitation, common decency as a leader should have taken him there, Rudd had more on his mind than to prod Turnbull into doing the right thing, this article shows what statemanship is, it says Rudd nearly broke down on ch9 talking about it, he’s going into the razed area again today and he’s staying in Melbourne for the time being, Glen thats what a leader who cares about his people does.

    http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/02/09/2485849.htm

  7. Adam’s right. Turnbull’s stance on the stimulus is a gamble, but its success or failure will be decided in 6, 12 or 18 months’ time, when people see how well or badly the economy is doing.

    If we’ve avoided recession (or only had a mild/short recession), while the rest of the world has suffered more, Rudd will absolutely romp in at the next election. There is nothing Turnbull can do about this.

    However if we have struggled, the main things lots of people will think are “whatever Rudd did hasn’t worked” and “I seem to remember Turnbull being against Rudd’s plan at the time”. This second point will be reinforced by the Liberals at every opportunity.

    Will be interesting …

  8. Glen in times like this people need to see their leaders leading, maybe a sympathetic shoulder to cry on wont undo the trauma but you know your leader is there with you emotionally, why do you think the late king and queen were adored by the English public, during the bombings they were there, not hiding out in the country, they were visible and with their people, if you cant understand that there’s no way of getting through to you.

  10. Showson @ 3

    Have you got a link to the Bondi Ocean Race story that mentions Turnbull starting the race yesterday? I wanted to show a co worker and can’t find any mention of Turnbull in the Ocean Race story on the SMH website.

  11. If the government gets their stimulus bill rejected twice over a period of 3 months or longer, they could call for a double dissolution, which would then give the economic crisis another 3 years to lift, before we’d be going to the polls again.

    And the commentators are saying a DD is more likely than ever.

  13. dyno maybe they’ll think that regardless Rudd tried everything to save us, no one can tell how the voters will react either way in 18 months time, Rudd’s rhetoric about throwing everything we have at the crisis resounds very well, going by the experts OZ will ride it out better than most countries, i hope so and it’s not just for Rudds sake neither, while it wont affect me i’ve got family it will affect badly, Rudd’s package will certainly help them, my son-in-law and grandson are roofing plumbers with homes and kids to support and they’re deeply concerned about the drop in the building trade.

  15. There’s really nothing that Turnbull can do in Victoria. Rudd can take any number of actions for disaster relief, which he is doing, but Turnbull can’t do anything except offer comfort, which could be seen as politically motivated. However, showing up at Bondi to start a race probably wasn’t one of his smartest moves.

  17. First Dog’s fundraiser: help bushfire victims

    First Dog On The Moon proudly presents the twitter365 image for February 08. The proceeds of the sale of this image will be given to the Victorian Bushfire fund.

    The image will be printed out on lovely paper by @andrewbarnett, and then it will be signed by @firstdogonmoon and forwarded to the highest bidder. Do your bit for the many folk who are struggling as a result of the Victorian Bushfires.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20090209-First-Dogs-fundraiser-help-bushfire-victims.html

    The auction itself – http://cgi.ebay.com.au/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&item=170300898850

  19. triton, if Turnbull had gone there yesterday and talked to the survivers it wouldnt have been seen as politically motivated, yes today it would, it’s too late and would be seen as an after thought, Rudd couldnt do anything physically to help but the emotional lift of having him there and sharing the grief is indescribable, the “we’re all in this together” message can be very uplifting at times like this, i dont believe for one minute Rudd was doing it politically neither,his real emotion shows that, he’s shown in the past he genuinely cares and being there was the right thing to do, uncomfortable heat, dirt, smoke and all.

  21. Dyno #57

    If you think voters will be rushing back to the Coalition in tough times to see their paypackets and work conditions plundered, I must say, it seems optimistic.

    Some employers will lick their lips at the idea of workers out, though the Coalition probably have that vote in their pocket already.

    Industrial Relations hits people intimately: their day-to-day working lives (about half their waking hours), their paypackets and standard of living, their work-life balance. It could be made into a huge issue that will resonate deeply in tough times. It’s also an issue I can’t see the Coalition ever winning.

  22. #69 JB
    Judith, Rudd is the country’s leader so I agree that he should be there to see it for himself, offer what comfort he can and provide money and take other actions for disaster relief. It depends on your definition of ‘leader’. Turnbull is not in government and can’t do anything, so the case for him to be there is far less compelling. Rudd and Turnbull are not co-leaders.

  23. Remember Mark Latham being criticised for his slow response to the Tsunami Disaster a few years ago?
    Turnball just arrived in regional Victoria!

  25. These two pieces are written by the hapless Dennis Shamaham and are simultaneously on the OO frontpage website. How much longer can they keep that bumbling fool on? I know the OO isn’t big on their credibility but a few of their journos must be getting restless.

    [THE Rudd Government’s economic management and $12 billion cash giveaway have been strongly endorsed and have given Labor the same big boost it got before the pre-Christmas $10 billion cash splash.

    According to the latest Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, primary vote support for Labor jumped five percentage points to 48 per cent – the same as in December – after the $42 billion economic stimulus package was announced last week.

    A large majority of those surveyed, 63 per cent, also think the Rudd Government is doing a good job managing the economy during the global financial crisis and only 33 per cent think the Coalition would do a better job.]

    [MALCOLM Turnbull has blind-sided the Government over the $42 billion stimulus package and left Kevin Rudd politically flat-footed and frustrated.

    In a week in which both leaders have made the biggest gambles of their political careers and set the battlelines for the next election, the Liberal leader’s surprise Senate blockade has given the Opposition an early advantage.

    This is the first time the Rudd Labor Government has appeared politically rattled, and it’s all because of Turnbull’s unpredictability.

    Strategists within both the Labor and Liberal camps yesterday detected a much more sympathetic reaction than expected to Turnbull’s decision to block the payments and $950 bonuses to millions of Australians.

    Straw polls, talkback radio reaction and internet surveys suggested the initial reaction to the Coalition blockade during the global financial crisis was actually going Turnbull’s way. ]

  26. #54 For god’s sake, one doesn’t need an invitation to do the right thing.
    Glen, partisanship has you by the short and curlys, old son. Time to get a grip on reality.

  27. Turnbull could be seen as politicking if he mooches along there now. After all, he’s not the leader (only the leader of a political party), and he’s now a day late. Back to Double Bay I’d suggest.

  28. I can’t wait to see how Andrew Bolt will spin the Newspoll numbers, if he even mentions it at all, after using other less reliable polls to spout his arguments that the package is a failure.

  29. Diogenes, I noticied that as well. Breathtakingly stupid isn’t it? I’d be embarrased to work alongside of this wacker. If the editor had his wits about him he’d order the immediate removal of that piece about about Rudd getting caught flat-footed.

  31. Non-political thought (off topic) but, if you were running Channel 9, would you put off running Underbelly tonight? Not saying it has anything to do with the fires, just thinking maybe the public won’t be as into it as they would have been 3 days ago… instead do a live news on the fires?

    Though perhaps 1970s underworld stuff is a good diversion for people…

  33. triton.
    as the leader of the alternative government better known as the opposition Turnbull SHOULD have been there, he’s still the leader of the opposition and therefore is putting himself up as the alternative PM.

  34. Grog: Underbelly is perhaps Nine’s only certain ratings winner this year. They won’t delay it!
    Oh well, better late than never for Turnball. Agreed, there’s not much opposition leaders can do other than lend moral support, but the perception still remains that Malcolm was slow off the mark and more interested yesterday in hobnobbing with a bunch of ocean swimmers at Bondi.

  37. Part of the strategy to oppose Rudd’s stimulus package is to set the stage in the event of a continuing downturn locally and internationally – which seems likely.
    “The package failed” if things get worse will be the mantra regardless of whether it was of benefit or not. Positive data will not be easily digestible by the punters but all negative opinions in the media will appear to be a logical conclusion: Things are worse – ergo – package didn’t work. It’s just ‘common sense’!
    Such is the world of public opinion.
    But unfortunately for Turnbull he won’t be leader when this happens. Costello is positioning himself to be leader (on a white charger) for the Libs (hopeful) double dis later this year.

  40. Ironbar does it again.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/federal-mps-united-over-vic-bushfires-20090209-819d.html?page=2

    Meanwhile, outspoken federal Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey has blamed both major political parties for Victoria’s bushfire tragedy, saying the weekend wildfires were preventable.

    Mr Tuckey, a former federal forestry minister, said policies that locked up forests created excessive fuel loads.

    Wildfires, like those in Victoria at the weekend, had generally occurred every 25 years, he said.

    But forests now had nearly 10 times the number of trees to the hectare than they did previously.

    He blamed the situation on both major parties “who go running around putting in more reserves to get green preferences”.

    “Governments who choose to lock up these forests and… treat them with benign contempt, well others pay the penalty,” he told reporters in Canberra.

    Mr Tuckey expected to be branded insensitive for raising the issue.

  41. [If Turnbull went people like you would say he would be playing politics…. This isnt a national tragedy it is a Victorian one anyway Evan…]

    #47, Glen, i am with you on this one. You know, it’s only those efffing Victorians. they are half human, aren’t they? and they play the aerial ping-pong. And it’s only about 100+, remember the Indonesian tsunami, it was 200,000+ and the Chinese Earthquake, it was 60,000+. The Victorians really have to do better to get our sympathy.

  43. [Grog: Underbelly is perhaps Nine’s only certain ratings winner this year. They won’t delay it!]

    I don’t think they will either, just thinking they might (out of self interest- you know the rating might not be as high etc..)

  47. #83 JB
    I’m not saying that there was no case for Turnbull to be there, since he is the alternative PM, just that his being powerless to do anything could make it look politically motivated to some people, even if he was there only out of genuine concern. Imagine that you are one of the people who has lost their home and Turnbull shows up. What can he do for you? And if he can’t do anything then why is he there? I just think that when you’re not in government it can look superfluous and poltically motivated to show up in a disaster area.

  50. Judith, I was just trying to point out how The Greens have contributed to the Victorian bushfires. There is plenty of evidence to prove that as well.

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