Newspoll: 58-42

Newspoll has come a day early – or six days late, depending on your perspective. Key findings of the survey, which was conducted over the past two days:

• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent‘s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).

• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.

• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.

• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.

• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.

Other news:

• The Greens’ parliamentary leader in New South Wales, Lee Rhiannon, has quit her Legislative Council seat and declared her intention to run for the Senate (UPDATE: Not quite – she has “informed the party that when federal elections are called, I’ll resign to stand for Federal Parliament, if I win preselection”). Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald says Rhiannon “appears to be positioning herself to replace the party’s federal leader”. She may have her work cut out: the only time the Greens have won a seat in the state was when Kerry Nettle got in on One Nation preferences in 2001. Generally the problem has been that Labor are too strong in the state for the Greens to get ahead of their third candidate. Two scenarios for success suggest themselves: one involves the Greens gaining at least 5 per cent on the Coalition on the primary vote, which would raise the possibility of a result of three Labor, two Liberal, one Greens; the other is a double dissolution.

• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports the Coalition has been “desperate to find a high-profile candidate to take on Maxine McKew in the Sydney seat of Bennelong”, which it hopes “will be enough for Labor to consider transferring McKew to a safer seat”. It doesn’t sound like they’re having much luck: among those to have knocked back the offer are Kerry Chikarovski, former Opposition Leader and member for the locally situated state seat of Lane Cove, and Andrew Tink, former Shadow Police Minister and recent departee from state politics.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 61-39, recording no change from last week. Nothing on the stimulus package (Essential Research advises there will be a “truckload” of such data next week), but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,047 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. The Iron Bar Clown doesn’t get many gigs at kid’s parties these days. He’s too scary. He still does the occasional warm up act at kickboxing contests though.

  3. [If Barnaby were to go to the Lower House the only one feeling threatened would be Wilson Tuckey.]
    Who is “flat out counting past ten”

    [Mr Tuckey —All you have done is finance growth with debt.
    Mr KEATING —You boxhead, you would not know. You are flat out counting past 10.
    Mr Tuckey —Mr Deputy Speaker, I take a point of order. I ask for that remark to be withdrawn.
    Mr KEATING —I will withdraw it if you shut up for a while.
    Mr Tuckey —I will shut up in the normal way I have to. You are an idiot. You are just a hopeless nong. You would not know.
    Mr KEATING —Shut up! Sit down and shut up, you pig.
    Mr DEPUTY SPEAKER (Mr Millar) —Order! The honourable member for O’Connor will resume his seat.
    Mr KEATING —Mr Deputy Speaker, the fact of the matter is-]
    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2F1985-08-21%2F0140%22

  4. Does anybody know how the print version [ not the online] of “The Advertiser” in SA portrayed Xenephon this morning?
    Negatively,positively neutrally?

    In fact how did they portray the whole thing?

  5. [But he refuses to take a shadow portfolio]
    he was offered the Arts but thought better because country and western was classified as one music form.
    When dangitt, any good ole boy knows it is two distinct types.
    🙂

  7. [Negatively,positively neutrally?]
    Over all negative, the editorial said he should put the Murray Darling is a very important issue, but on this occasion he had to put the national interest above state interest.

  10. This is how things will hopefully look after the 2013 federal election:

    Prime Minister- Peter Costello

    Deputy Prime Minister- Barnaby Joyce

    Treasurer- Malcolm Turnbull

    Minister for Education- Julie Bishop

  12. Libs trying to take credit for Greens X’s and fielding ammendments now. Dutton just told Sky if the Libs hadn’t blocked the bill these extras wouldn’t have been gained. Wally!

  14. I still find it so incredibly amusing how people like Bree have such delusions. The public hate Costello. The sooner Bree realises it, the better, because if it happens, it’s a looooong way to come crashing back down to earth.

    NOBODY LIKES COSTELLO!

    Except rusted on Liberals that is.

  17. [Libs trying to take credit for Greens X’s and fielding ammendments now. Dutton just told Sky if the Libs hadn’t blocked the bill these extras wouldn’t have been gained. Wally!]

    But they voted against these amendments!

  26. [Over all negative, the editorial said he should put the Murray Darling is a very important issue, but on this occasion he had to put the national interest above state interest.]

    Once again, the Tiser showing what an adroit understanding it has of national politics.

  28. REMEMBER, the coalition parties can’t handle Friday sittings, so expect them to go bat$hit insane with cardboard cut outs and stuff.

  32. [REMEMBER, the coalition parties can’t handle Friday sittings, so expect them to go bat$hit insane with cardboard cut outs and stuff.]

    Yeah they should be loudly demanding question time!

  34. Prime Minister- Peter Costello Vs Kevin Rudd

    Deputy Prime Minister- Barnaby Joyce vs Julia Gillard

    Treasurer- Malcolm Turnbull vs Wayne Swan

    Minister for Education- Julie Bishop vs Julia Gillard (would put Sexy Maxy in btw)

    Bree – can i start laughing now?

  35. Abbott must’ve been off eating stronganoff, he didn’t realise that Hockey had arranged with Albanese for Rudd and Turnbull to have a spray each on indulgence.

  37. There are NO Greens on Murrindindi Council! There are No Greens in the Victorian Government! All the state and Federal politicians in the area where the bushfires occurred belong either to the Liberal, Labor or National Parties. Why arent they to blame then????? After all it is not the Greens in power but others who have all the fire policies in their hands! Wilson Tuckey just has a hatred for anyone who doesnt want to either dig eveything up or bulldose it flat! Tuckey better not be too cheeky because at the next election Green voters in his electorate will be better informed to preference the Nationals before The Liberals and therefore , Goodbye Wilson! That almost happened last time!

  44. ‘Someone in the opposition just called the schools package “a waste of money”’

    Of course. The coalition doesn’t believe in nation building. They think money should be taken out of education/health/infrastructure. Australia went from one of the highest to one of the lowest ranked OECD countries in these areas under the Howard government.

  47. I wonder if Turnbull will refer to the Government as the Opposition again today.

    Expect a highly indignant, fired up response trying to justify the untenable position they placed themselves in right from the word go.

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