Essential Research: 61-39

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 61-39. As promised, there is also voluminous material on attitudes to the economy and stimulus package:

• 62 per cent are “concerned” about job security over the coming year, although 60 per cent are “confident” Australia can withstand the crisis.

• The opposition’s approve-disapprove split on handling of the crisis has widened from 31-35 to 35-44, while the government’s is little changed.

• Labor is more trusted to handle the crisis than the Coalition by 55-25.

• A somewhat unwieldy question about which leader’s approach to stimulus is preferable has Rudd leading Turnbull 51-33.

• Opinion is also gauged on five individual aspects of the package, with free ceiling insulation rated significantly lower than the rest.

• Perhaps most importantly, Peter Costello outscores Malcolm Turnbull in a head-to-head preferred Liberal leader contest 37-26.

What’s more:

• Last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph reported that Malcolm Turnbull is supporting preselection moves against former NSW Opposition Leader Peter Debnam in the blue-ribbon Vaucluse, which is wholly contained within Turnbull’s federal seat of Wentworth. Those named as possible successors are “restaurateur Peter Doyle, barrister Mark Speakman, UNSW Deputy Chancellor Gabrielle Upton, barrister Arthur Moses and former Optus spokesman Paul Fletcher”. Debnam quit shadow cabinet last May in protest against his party’s support for the government’s attempt at electricity privatisation, and was left out in December’s reshuffle despite reportedly angling for the Shadow Treasurer position. Also rated as a possible starter is Joe Hockey, who might have other ideas now he’s Shadow Treasurer. Alex Mitchell writes in Crikey that Hockey might also be keeping an eye on Jillian Skinner’s seat of North Shore, and muses that Tony Abbott might also consider the state premiership a more achievable objective than a return to government federally.

• Former Howard government minister Richard Alston has nominated for a Liberal federal electoral conference position, which is reportedly a gambit in the keenly fought contest to replace retiring Petro Georgiou in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. Described by The Age as a “patron” of long-standing hopeful Josh Frydenberg, Alston will attempt to gain the position at the expense of incumbent Paula Davey, who is associated with faction of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu – which would prefer that the seat go to Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam.

• Yesterday’s Sunday Times reported that long-serving Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri has been sounded out by Labor as a possible successor to Jim McGinty as state member for Fremantle. The report raised the prospect of McGinty going sooner rather than later, thereby initiating what could prove a very interesting by-election in the Poll Bludger’s home electorate. While Fremantle has been in Labor hands since 1924, McGinty received an early shock on election night when it appeared Greens candidate Adele Carles might overtake the Liberals and possibly win the seat on their preferences. Carles was ultimately excluded at the second last count with 28.6 per cent of the vote to the Liberal candidate’s 32.1 per cent.

• Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett rates himself “extremely pleased” that Winnaleah-based school principal Brian Wightman will seek Labor preselection for Bass at the March 2010 state election. Labor narrowly failed to win a third seat in Bass at the 2006 election, being pipped at the post by the Greens for a result of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. The likelihood of a swing against Labor next time means Labor is all but certain to again win two seats: one seems certain to stay with former federal MP Michelle O’Byrne, while the other is being vacated by retiring member Jim Cox. Also in the field will be CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean, reckoned by The Mercury to be a “star candidate” despite having been “condemned by many diehard members of the Labor Party in 2004 when he backed Liberal Prime Minister John Howard over Labor’s then-federal opposition leader Mark Latham”.

• The Hobart Mercury talks of upper house disquiet over Tasmanian government legislation for fixed terms, a draft of which is “currently out for consultation”. The government wants early elections for the House of Assembly to be allowed if the Legislative Council does so much as block a bill the Assembly has deemed to be “significant”. This sounds very much like South Australia’s “bill of special importance” exception, which I gather has never been invoked since it was introduced in 1985. Independent Council President Sue Smith says there is concern that “the provision could be used as a threat to pass controversial legislation or as an excuse to go to an early election”. Another exception, according to The Mercury, is that “the Lower House would also go to an election if the Upper House blocks supply of funds for a budget”. This seems to suggest that 1975-style supply obstruction would produce an instant election, though I suspect it’s not quite as simple as that. Nonetheless, Greens leader Nick McKim has “foreshadowed an amendment by which the Upper House would also have to go to the polls if it blocked budget supply”. This would be a significant development for a chamber that currently never dissolves, as its members rotate annually through a six-year cycle. Less contentiously, the legislation also allows for an early election if the lower house passes a no confidence motion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,646 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

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  1. No 49

    Bob, your personal attacks on Hockey are banal and infantile. I would have thought the standard of debate around here could rise above that which is typical of kindergarten students.

  3. GP, he is fat isn’t he? It’s not an attack, just a statement of fat. Er, fact. Just like the taunts Beazley got.

    Oh yes, your time has come.

  4. No 10

    Ron, thanks for your kind comments, but I will never subscribe to government ownership of banks and other businesses. Government involvement is a recipe for inefficiency, incompetence and waste.

  6. No 53

    I don’t believe I’ve criticised Beazley for being overweight. It’s totally unnecessary and, as I said, infantile.

  7. ltep, if the weight is due to their lifestyle choices, it shows that they are unable to manage themselves correctly, let alone the finances of the nation.

    Of course, it could all be glandular.

  8. “When our leader Malcolm Turnbull was elected last year, I chose the treasury portfolio because it had been something of a tradition in the Liberal Party for the deputy leader to hold that portfolio and because I believed that with Malcolm and others this would give the opposition a strong and effective team in the area of economic management,” Ms Bishop said.

    But er oops Ms Bishop when you were elected Deputy Leader originally you chose to take on Ms Gillard – she nuked you.

    Then when Dr Nelson fell out of favour you decided you would take on Mr Swan – he nuked you.

    Now you have set your sights a little lower – but Mr Smith will do the same. 🙂

  10. [ltep, if the weight is due to their lifestyle choices, it shows that they are unable to manage themselves correctly, let alone the finances of the nation.]

    Oh come on. You can do better than that.

  12. GP

    [Government involvement is a recipe for inefficiency, incompetence and waste.]

    Why does the right always say that? What are the advantages the private system has over public that lead it to being more efficient, competent and less wasteful?

    (Let’s just ignore my comment earlier that the Peter Principle mainly applies to public systems because it’s a lot easier to shaft someone in a private business).

  13. No 57

    Oh for goodness sake, grow up! A politician’s weight, sex, colour, sexual preference etc have nothing to do with their mental capacity for the job.

  15. [I can’t say I’m much impressed by “deluded fat fool” either.]

    I take it you mean by the phrase, not the person so described.

  16. For once I agree with GP, it does not matter if Joe is 80kg or 200kg it is the quality of his argument that is the only thing of interest. 🙁

  17. William, i’ve called politicians deluded fools several times if not many times. Does adding a factual word, fat, change the acceptability? Or are you not banning the use of such a phrase, just expressing your dislike for it?

    I notice it’s really annoying to GP…

  19. Just saw ABC TV news. It’s reported that Costello was offered the job as Swan’s shadow but he again wimped it. What a wonderful servant of the party he’s turned out to be. The soon he has his preselection removed the sooner the Libs can start to rebuild. Of course I hope that doesn’t happen soon as the longer the stink of the Howard years hangs over the Libs the longer Labor will rule the roost.

  20. GP

    “I will never subscribe to government ownership of banks and other businesses. Government involvement is a recipe for inefficiency, incompetence and waste.”

    I also find this a statement of ideology rather than fact. It is always stated as a fact but no evidence is offered to prove it. In reality this is simplistic rubbish. I have spent my career in both government and private consulting firms and I find there is no correlation – there is good and bad in both. I have worked for one very efficient government department, one average and one very poor. Similarly the consulting firm I work for now is verry well managed, but one I worked for previously was not. In my experience the size of the organisation, quality of management and degree of compeitition have far more to do with whether it is competent, not whether it is public or private.

    In an era when business executives are installing marbled personal bathrooms in their offices at shareholder expense, only a fool would believe that private is always more efficient than public.

  21. Hockey as treasurer will be interesting and more of a challenge for the govt than the previous two were.

    Also some very interesting times ahead for Joe, he could well take the leadership from Turnbull down the track and, lets face it, at the bottom of it is the money.

    Leader of the opposition pays way, way more than shadow treasurer, and Joe took a huge salary cut in dropping for Work Choices Minister to opposition spokesperson. Remember all the talk from Abbott, Downer and co crying poor. Didn’t affect Turnbull so much though.

    Also with Joe, the federal election is before the NSW election, if libs get a caning at federal level this could prompt Joe to move on O’Farrell. A close result could see Joe as fed leader with the extra cash it brings.

  23. When Beazeley was in opposition going into the election, I was chatting to a head of a prominent think tank in UK, who said Beaza would never make PM on acount of his weight.
    And everyone was eyeing Al Gore’s weight to see if he was going to run

    In peoples mind fat=weak, Hockey won’t go very far

  26. I heard that too Grog.

    It shows the man is gutless. He’s happy to carp on about his brilliance in the press but when he’s offered the opportunity to develop policy and attack the government in parliament he runs away.

  27. GP,

    The Banks in the US have done such a fine job that they are going to have to be nationalised to survive.

    I’m fascinated that the trillion dollar bailout by the US Government has been treated with a yawn by “The Markets”. It’s like they all want window seats on the rescue craft.

  28. Finns the good senator walks the streets at night because he has trouble sleeping I believe, well thats his story anyway so help him God

  29. Obviously Uncle Joe’s weight has nothing to do with how we should perceive him as a competent politician but I really think it makes a difference to whether he succeeds. There have been very few successful overweight politicians in recent history.

    The same is true of height in America. If McCain had’ve won, he would have been the shortest POTUS in 120 years.

  33. Julie to Malcolm.

    Its not working out, I think I will move to Foreign Affairs.

    Malcolm to Julie.

    No worries.

    Malcolm to Helen

    Sorry but Julie’s Dept Leader – your gig is cactus.

    Helen to Malcolm

    What do I do now?

    Malcolm to Helen

    Wait a bit – I am waiting for Peter.

    Peter to Malcolm

    Sod off.

    Malcolm to Helen

    You’ve got Joe’s gig.

    Joe to Malcolm

    You want me to do what !!!!!!!

  34. Generic Person 63:

    [Oh for goodness sake, grow up! A politician’s weight, sex, colour, sexual preference etc have nothing to do with their mental capacity for the job.]

    But it was OK for the Liberal scumbag to call Julia Gillard “deliberately barren”? And, for that matter, the Liberal Party to smear Rudd because he visited a strip club?

  35. [It shows the man is gutless. He’s happy to carp on about his brilliance in the press but when he’s offered the opportunity to develop policy and attack the government in parliament he runs away.]

    Who leaked that Costello was offered the job though?

    Gives the ALP a perfect attack to any Hockey question in QT – “the member for North Sydney, who’s leader didn’t even want him to be the shadow Treasury spokesperson”.

  37. No 70

    Socrates, the fundamental difference is that inefficient businesses pay the price for their incompetence through decreased market share and/or bankruptcy. The public sector has no such worry.

  38. I think weight, height (for males) and appearance generally have gotten more important for politicians as TV coverage has become more crucial. Didn’t Howard get his teeth capped? Its a pitty in many ways – style over substance. I wonder if a Churchill would even get elected now? He was also fat but not weak.

  40. Turnbull wanders up to the hammock and after shaking it vigorously, Costello slowly opens one eye. “Wadda yu want Allbull?”

    “Arrr Worlds Greatest Treasurer, there’s a job going down on the front bench. We need a new Shadow Treasurer.”

    “Arrr. p off Allbull, a man of my ability doesn’t need all that cr*p going on down there. It disturbs my sleep and after 11 and a half years of propping up that dreadful Howard character, I need to catch up on some beauty sleep. My smirk is starting to slip because of all the demands placed on it over the years.”

    Go and try Hockey. He’ll have a go at anything. Won’t be much good at it, going on past performance, but he has a good appetite for a challenge. Big Macs for one.”

  43. GP if the business is a monopoly or too large to be left to fail that simply isn’t true. If it is a major bank its collapse definitely won’t be permitted. Westpac here was insolvent in the early 90s, but helped out of its mess. Likewise GM and Chrysler in the US, on top of their banks and insurance companies. Companies in profitable businesses can underperform for years and get away with it.

  44. [Mr Heffernan’s remarks were inappropriate. Simple as that.]
    He should’ve been expelled by the Liberal party after his baseless attack on Michael Kirby.

  45. ShowsOn

    you are forgetting that the Liberals were IN POWER then. The time to talk about standards of behaviour is when you are in opposition. Surely Howard taught you that?

  48. No 93

    I made an exception with the case of banks earlier – it would be inappropriate to let the entire banking system collapse. However, it is important to examine the reasons why banks collapse – regulation that forced banks to sell loans to people with no ability to repay as well as a lack of appropriate prudential regulation, as examples.

    As for GM and Chrysler, bailing them out is an obscene waste of taxpayer’s resources. Whilst banks form an essential part of every economy, the success or otherwise of an inefficient, wasteful auto maker does not. Foreign car makers have been profitably producing vehicles in the US for years and none of them have received the generous taxpayer bailouts that the big three have.

  50. Heffernan was probably the nastiest of John Howard’s attack dogs. But Howard always had a few.

    NOTHING that happened in the L-NP after 2002 was done without the express permission of JWH.

    🙁

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