Essential Research: 61-39

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 61-39. As promised, there is also voluminous material on attitudes to the economy and stimulus package:

• 62 per cent are “concerned” about job security over the coming year, although 60 per cent are “confident” Australia can withstand the crisis.

• The opposition’s approve-disapprove split on handling of the crisis has widened from 31-35 to 35-44, while the government’s is little changed.

• Labor is more trusted to handle the crisis than the Coalition by 55-25.

• A somewhat unwieldy question about which leader’s approach to stimulus is preferable has Rudd leading Turnbull 51-33.

• Opinion is also gauged on five individual aspects of the package, with free ceiling insulation rated significantly lower than the rest.

• Perhaps most importantly, Peter Costello outscores Malcolm Turnbull in a head-to-head preferred Liberal leader contest 37-26.

What’s more:

• Last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph reported that Malcolm Turnbull is supporting preselection moves against former NSW Opposition Leader Peter Debnam in the blue-ribbon Vaucluse, which is wholly contained within Turnbull’s federal seat of Wentworth. Those named as possible successors are “restaurateur Peter Doyle, barrister Mark Speakman, UNSW Deputy Chancellor Gabrielle Upton, barrister Arthur Moses and former Optus spokesman Paul Fletcher”. Debnam quit shadow cabinet last May in protest against his party’s support for the government’s attempt at electricity privatisation, and was left out in December’s reshuffle despite reportedly angling for the Shadow Treasurer position. Also rated as a possible starter is Joe Hockey, who might have other ideas now he’s Shadow Treasurer. Alex Mitchell writes in Crikey that Hockey might also be keeping an eye on Jillian Skinner’s seat of North Shore, and muses that Tony Abbott might also consider the state premiership a more achievable objective than a return to government federally.

• Former Howard government minister Richard Alston has nominated for a Liberal federal electoral conference position, which is reportedly a gambit in the keenly fought contest to replace retiring Petro Georgiou in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. Described by The Age as a “patron” of long-standing hopeful Josh Frydenberg, Alston will attempt to gain the position at the expense of incumbent Paula Davey, who is associated with faction of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu – which would prefer that the seat go to Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam.

• Yesterday’s Sunday Times reported that long-serving Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri has been sounded out by Labor as a possible successor to Jim McGinty as state member for Fremantle. The report raised the prospect of McGinty going sooner rather than later, thereby initiating what could prove a very interesting by-election in the Poll Bludger’s home electorate. While Fremantle has been in Labor hands since 1924, McGinty received an early shock on election night when it appeared Greens candidate Adele Carles might overtake the Liberals and possibly win the seat on their preferences. Carles was ultimately excluded at the second last count with 28.6 per cent of the vote to the Liberal candidate’s 32.1 per cent.

• Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett rates himself “extremely pleased” that Winnaleah-based school principal Brian Wightman will seek Labor preselection for Bass at the March 2010 state election. Labor narrowly failed to win a third seat in Bass at the 2006 election, being pipped at the post by the Greens for a result of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. The likelihood of a swing against Labor next time means Labor is all but certain to again win two seats: one seems certain to stay with former federal MP Michelle O’Byrne, while the other is being vacated by retiring member Jim Cox. Also in the field will be CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean, reckoned by The Mercury to be a “star candidate” despite having been “condemned by many diehard members of the Labor Party in 2004 when he backed Liberal Prime Minister John Howard over Labor’s then-federal opposition leader Mark Latham”.

• The Hobart Mercury talks of upper house disquiet over Tasmanian government legislation for fixed terms, a draft of which is “currently out for consultation”. The government wants early elections for the House of Assembly to be allowed if the Legislative Council does so much as block a bill the Assembly has deemed to be “significant”. This sounds very much like South Australia’s “bill of special importance” exception, which I gather has never been invoked since it was introduced in 1985. Independent Council President Sue Smith says there is concern that “the provision could be used as a threat to pass controversial legislation or as an excuse to go to an early election”. Another exception, according to The Mercury, is that “the Lower House would also go to an election if the Upper House blocks supply of funds for a budget”. This seems to suggest that 1975-style supply obstruction would produce an instant election, though I suspect it’s not quite as simple as that. Nonetheless, Greens leader Nick McKim has “foreshadowed an amendment by which the Upper House would also have to go to the polls if it blocked budget supply”. This would be a significant development for a chamber that currently never dissolves, as its members rotate annually through a six-year cycle. Less contentiously, the legislation also allows for an early election if the lower house passes a no confidence motion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,646 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

Comments Page 28 of 33
1 … 27 28 29 … 33

  2. Joe has a whine

    [Treasurer Wayne Swan attacked Mr Hockey for a comment reported in The Australian on Wednesday where he said, “the market had made everyday Australians richer than they have ever been – even with this economic downturn.”

    Mr Swan said he found the comment remarkable and that Mr Hockey should tell it to the Australians who had lost on their superannuation because of the global recession.

    He said that after only two days in the job Mr Hockey had already had his “John Howard moment”

    “Everybody will recall John Howard saying working families have never been better off,” Mr Swan said.]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/im-not-second-best-says-hockey-20090218-8b92.html

  3. Boy o boy Swannee has certainly got it going now – quick off the mark after blustering Joe came out with that comment.

    I’m with Shrike – Howard played us all for fools and we fell into the trap. Once he got Peter Reith onto the nasty, fear campaign against pollies electing a President it was all over.

    Turnbull was done like an amateur for letting Howard call the shots.

    I’m with Fredex – let’s have the first question only and that can lead onto a huge debate in every community and not just in a silly forum of pollies and a few community bods.

    Kev can either put it up in 2010 or 2013.

  4. #1314
    Adam in Canberra
    Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2009 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

    “The issue is what political process will get us to the point of giving them what they want, given the reluctance of the Rudd government to take the issue up again, the likelihood that the Liberals will oppose anything Rudd does out of sheer opportunism, and the current apathy towards the whole subject. It’s all very well to say “hold a referendum/plebiscite.” Only the government can do that, and at present there is no will in Canberra to move towards doing so”

    No , th first issue is tactical…’a plan’ , as suggested in #1282 ie. present rudd with a plan that will get a ‘yes’ vote …so that there is no politcal downside to Labor…and no politcal distraction/albatross ( liberal Dyno said to me my phasd queston would get 50% Lib voters with a yes so thats 80% territory of yes to a question)

    Two politcaly , Rudd then knows not only is likely 80% suport but 1/2 of Libs may support it as well leaving Libs in pickle , and all ‘Royalists’ ar sidelined after plebiscite is pased

    Three ‘eliteness’ only , thats an un-nerding issue …John Fawkner or Alby job as Kevin rudd is not ‘natural’ in that area

    Four leadership , a simple statement from rudd indicating low key considering just putting up ath simle question may act as spurt for ARM groups a/ to be ignoted 2/ to see unity of a republicon cause is tacticly needed to kick royalists out of th game and unify australians on th principal first …being a 2 step not one step agenda to get a Republic

    Five ARM groups would grow from a simple rudd statement of intent , or eve “possible floated” intent being considered (and seeing what polls say if thats politcal worry)

    Now th 2 alternitves ar a/ of expecting a grass roots self financed colection of separate groups with separate ‘Phil Cleary type’ opposing Presidemnt election method Agenda’s eithr won’t get off ground , or if they do so will merely fight themselvs and not fight th Royalists and/or they will be not fightiing instead where it counts and thats for our publics suport

    or b/ ‘encouraging with blind eye Labor grass roots organization built but no control of th tiger then , better from top down not bottom up

    If yu don’t start with ‘a plan’ learning from 1999 fiasco , thn all other steps falter….especialy given normal oz apathey or suspicion of ‘change’ Plebiscite will pass , then its education time for th public on differing pres electon methods

  5. Business union leaders not helping the Liberals:
    [Retail turnover in the December quarter grew a seasonally adjusted 1.2 per cent to more than $4 billion.

    Nationally, retail turnover increased by 1.8 per cent.

    The chief executive officer of Business SA, Peter Vaughan, says a decrease in interest rates and the Federal Government’s last economic stimulus package boosted the sector.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/18/2495187.htm?section=business
    The raw data:

    [ * The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail series increased by 0.7% in the December quarter 2008. This follows a revised increase of 0.6% in the September quarter and an increase 0.5% in the June quarter 2008.
    * In the December quarter 2008 the Food retailing (+1.8%), Department stores (+0.3%) and Other retailing (+1.3%) industries had an increase in the trend estimate while the Clothing and soft good retailing (-0.2%), Household good retailing (-0.7%) and Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-0.6%) industries declined.
    * The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail series increased by 1.8% in the December quarter 2008. This follows revised increases of 0.9% in the September quarter and 0.3% in the June quarter 2008.]
    http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8502.0?OpenDocument

  6. “Should Australia become a republic?”
    Yes
    No.

    With respect to my learned PBers the obvious question is WTF is a Republic.

  9. GG

    We could just as easily confuse them by asking them
    “WTF is a constitutional monarchy”? or
    “WTF are the reserve powers”? (free constitutional law degree for correct answer)

    The majority of Australians (who favor a republic) won’t fall for that one twice.

  11. I think you have a point GG. It’s why I back-tracked a bit on agreeing that just a question on the republic will be enough.

    If the republican side don’t clarify what they mean by a republic, the Monarchists will (as a politicians republic). It seems to me that at the end of the day this is a democratic issue and the democratic case has to be made.

  12. Personally I agree with the above approach – ask question one first – do you want a republic? then sort out how.

    If the majority want an elected president then, accept that and work out how to make it work. THe IRish model seems to work fine in this respect. That requires defining the reserve powers but they should be defined anyway.

  13. and GG you can see how they’ve mangled my pure englasih question from months ago into a miserable 5 words , got be clever with words in conveying info and not scaring th punters…thats easy part , hard part is get people see tactical advantage of it to get a repluvblic

  14. [* The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail series increased by 0.7% in the December quarter 2008. This follows a revised increase of 0.6% in the September quarter and an increase 0.5% in the June quarter 2008.]

    Which was reported as a negative by Seven News, who are talking up Australia going into a Recession.

  15. Socrates,

    It is necessary for the proposer of Constitutional change to articulate what it is they are proposing and why it should occur. The fallback is always the current situation.

  16. [Boy o boy Swannee has certainly got it going now – quick off the mark after blustering Joe came out with that comment.]

    Yep, and he is being helped so much by the media (and the Liberal Party) continually calling him the ALP’s weak link.

  19. I presume that most pro-republican people wish a change to a republic that:
    – retains our current electoral and government system, but
    – replaces the governor general with an Australian citizen to fulfill a (largely ceremonial) role as head of state
    – with no executive powers,
    – reserve powers to resolve deadlocks but clearly defined, and
    – elected by popular vote.

    To me that covers most of it.

  20. [If the republican side don’t clarify what they mean by a republic, the Monarchists will (as a politicians republic). ]
    Rather than using the term “Republic”, why not ask “Do you think Australia should have an Australian Head of State?” I think the response to that question would be about 76% 😀

    Seriously, that is probably the only thing all republics share in common, the Head of State is a citizen of the country.

  21. Socrates,

    We already have the first 4. You could argue that 5 is there because the PM (who is popularly elected) selects the GG.

  22. [Queensland election website published]
    Nice! Thanks for all the answers last night.

    What exactly will you and the ABC do if S.A. and Tas have their elections on the same day? Are you training some primates to work the election computer?

  24. His demeanour is quite different lately. He looks much more confident in front of the media. Must be a nice feeling to have the business community mostly appreciative of what he is trying to do.

    No wonder Malcolm will have to use his own money.

    Heard the Chamber of Commerce bloke saying that payroll tax must be abolished – is this the way to go? Where does the money come from if so many taxes are lifted?

    Abbott was on today about the Libs alternative plan which could include abolishing capital gains tax as well. If income tax is lowered, payroll tax gone, capital gains tax kapput where does that leave us.

    Does someone have answers about this.

  26. Frank @ 1318

    I would have opposed that name but it’s a bit different here. In Perth, you aren’t closing the RPH and renaming it the Fiona Stanley Hospital. Fiona Stanley has at least worked in a hospital and is even a local. But I still don’t think it should be named after her. She strikes me as a bit of a crackpot actually.

    bob

    Every capital city has a Royal (insert city) Hospital except Sydney. There’s going to be a lot of head-scratching to do when we become a republic about what to change the names to. I imagine monarchists use that as a reason to stay a monarchy.

    Spam Box

    I can honestly say I didn’t vote once. I’d already won when that poll went up. Time to move on.

    ShowsOn

    I actually never said I supported the stadium. I was really just arguing the case put forward by it’s proponents, which happened to suit my evil purposes. I would like to see a city stadium but we can’t afford it and it’s not a priority. A nice new hospital is. 😀

    Steve K

    The name is important as a brand. SA’s public hospitals need overseas doctors because we don’t have enough/no-one wants to work in them. About 30% of our junior doctors are from OS. They are climbing a ladder and showing that they have good experience. If they are in England (for eg) and want to come to Oz for a year, they ask around what are the best hospitals for plastic surgery, as an example. They hear the RAH for some things, RBH for other things etc etc.

    They’re not going to hear the Marjorie Jackson-Nelson Hospital for anything. They know their bosses will see it on their CV and ask why they couldn’t get into a proper hospital. And they won’t come.

  27. [Whitsunday was one of the seats lost to One nation in 1998, but was regained for Labor by Jan Jarratt in 2001. She was easily re-elected in 2004 when the National Party disendorsed its candidate in the campaign when it was revealed their candidate had past links with the Nazi Party]
    There is actually an official Nazi Party in QLD?

  30. [Heard the Chamber of Commerce bloke saying that payroll tax must be abolished – is this the way to go? ]
    This is what they always say irrespective of economic conditions.

  31. [Every capital city has a Royal (insert city) Hospital except Sydney. ]
    I’m happy for the new hospital to be called the Royal Adelaide, as long as the royal family pays for it to be built and run for a decade.

  33. [I also think Canberra used to have one,but then they blew it up.]
    Why did they do that? Couldn’t it of been converted to cheap and / or public housing?

  34. Although the Courier Mail and Radio Courier Mail (ABC 612) have decided there will be an election next month don’t count on it.

    Spiffy stuff Anthony 🙂

  35. [I would have opposed that name but it’s a bit different here. In Perth, you aren’t closing the RPH and renaming it the Fiona Stanley Hospital. Fiona Stanley has at least worked in a hospital and is even a local. But I still don’t think it should be named after her. She strikes me as a bit of a crackpot actually.]

    Labor were planning on rolling back RPH to a smaller hospital once Fiona Stanley was completed, but the Libs have reversed that desicion.

    http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/wa/content/2006/s1898378.htm

  36. ShowsOn

    At $2B to build and at our current budget of $700M a year, even Liz would go broke soon.

    I was a bit surprised that Rann caved to completely and said the new hospital would still be the RAH. He could easily have said there would be public consultation or just gone with the Adelaide Hospital. Technically the Royal Adelaide Hospital doesn’t actually exist. For legal purposes, we are the North Tce campus of the Central Northern Adalaide Health Service.

  38. [Why did they do that? Couldn’t it of been converted to cheap and / or public housing?]

    Nah a National Museum was a better use for lakeside real estate.

    The boring Woden Valley hospital gained the Canberra Hospital name.

  41. [Why did they do that? Couldn’t it of been converted to cheap and / or public housing?]

    To the best of my knowledge there were issues with Asbestos and golden staph.

    the national museum stands there now.

  42. Frank

    John Hill (the SA Health Minister) and the WA Health Minister (McGinty I believe) were/are good friends. McGinty gave Hill the idea of building a new hospital with a new name.

    The hidden agenda is that a new hospital means a new identity and a chance to break the entrenched power of the hospital cliques. The boffins wanted a clean slate so they could impose their will on the new hospitals more easily than if the name, ethos and power base of the old hospital was retained.

  43. Dio – what is the timing for the construction of the Hosp. Will it give lots of employment quickly or are they still in the planning stage.

    The RAH was a dog’s breakfast when I was a kid visiting sick rellies and I am glad you are getting a new one.

    Marj Jackson is a sensible woman. I can imagine her embarrassment at the controversy over the name. My dearest friend shared many months (on and off) at the RAH during mid 70s with Peter Nelson and they supported each other – both had leukemia. Daily visits to the RAH were not pleasant then and apart from feeling miserable for my friend (not in front of her of course) the condition of the place was depressing. The paint was peeling off walls, mildew was everywhere and the cracks in the walls were awful. But the staff were terrific. My friend and Marj’s husband were gone within weeks of each other.

    Hope that silly stadium idea is of the books until the AFL or someone else pays for it.

  44. I’m sorry GG I assumed you were asking your question in good faith.
    Seems like I was wrong.
    It was a trap was it?
    So we could get confused and run around in circles and ignore the elephant in the room.
    The fact that we are a constitutional monarchy which developed from a monarchy.
    Why didn’t you ask what is a monarchy/constitutional monarchy?
    Cos that’s what we are and maybe we are not aware of its essential characteristics, which is why I started you of on monarchy.
    Tell you what Ill enter into a debate on republic after you have outlined the salient points of being a con monarchy, objective political description wise.
    Did you check out the link?

  45. Talking about medical power bases. How about this one. A surgeon in our area agreed to operate on Sundays at the local Public Hospital (a big one) to clear the backlog of knee/hip ops. He is very good and very busy in the private hospitals during the week.

    Couple of older bods who seem to have complete control of the theatres at the Hospital stopped this happening. They wanted to protect their territory even tho they do not ‘do weekends’. A big bunfight but the older blokes prevailed.

    Why should this be allowed to happen in a public hospital – if the taxpayer is happy to provide the money for weekend ops why should someone be allowed to stop them going ahead.

  46. BH

    I know four people who know MJN well and all of them say she’s a lovely person, a bit like you favourite grannie. She got sold a pup by Rann when she agreed to the name. Rann is to blame for her embarrassment. Everyone has always said they would be very happy for the cancer wing to be named after her, and hopefully she will accept although she has told Rann she doesn’t want anything named after her.

    Between the AFL, the SANFL and the NSL, they should build a new stadium with some help from SA and the Ruddster if it’s economically viable.

    I gather all the contracts for the New RAH can be set aside if Rann loses the next election. There’s about $100M they are going to spend cleaning up the site until then no matter what.

  48. fredex,

    Don’t whimper and stand up straight!

    The reality is that to change the constituiton you have to convince people who haven’t read anything and actually rejoice in their ignorance that a change from a perfectly acceptable status quo to something else is worthwhile.

    The weight is all on the arguer.

    Tough Love! But, I’m sure you’ll learn to live with it.

  49. Australia is a constitutional monarchy totally independent from the UK. If the UK became a republic we would still be a constitutional monarchy. The only way Australia can cease to be a monarchy is to alter the constitution by referendum.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 28 of 33
1 … 27 28 29 … 33