Newspoll: 58-42

The latest fortnightly Newspoll shows no change from Labor’s towering 58-42 lead from the last survey. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up two points to 64 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is steady on 20 per cent. More to follow. (UPDATE: Graphic here.)

Also today, Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 62-38 in its weekly survey, up from 61-39 last time. The poll also features results on views of the economy (nervous), support for federal control over primary health care (overwhelming), Rudd versus Costello as well as Turnbull, and – interestingly – how respondents would feel about an early election if the Opposition continued to oppose financial measures (38 per cent good, 34 per cent not good).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,782 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

Comments Page 33 of 36
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  1. People cutting their spending (and governments likewise) is the last thing you want in a downturn. Which makes me glad we got rid of the Liberals when we did.

    If we had not, they would have intensified SerfChoices, using the GFC as an “excuse”, giving employers more “choices” to cut wages and axe jobs. And don’t think employers wouldn’t have taken every advantage of their extended “choices”.

    This would have caused those consumers/employees affected to cut their spending, simply because they would have had less to spend.

    And the Liberals would be happily rolling SerfChoices right over the whole serf-force

  2. dovif, How about doing your own research? Check the price of anything in Harvey Norman’s and check JB Hi Fi or The Good Guys or K Mart or Target etc.

    Gerry Harvey has killed the goose that laid his golden egg.

  3. Maccas is benefiting because their meals are $6, they are the low cost ones. The take out shop suffering are the $10 one. Look how much Pizza hut and Dominos are discounting their pizza atm. People are lowering their cost of food that is why cheap food like Maccas, Coles, Woolworth are doing well, while your local Thai, pizza shops and Chinese take aways are not.

    Steve K, if you are going to post can you actually make an argument first

  5. Take away sales have increased – it’s the restaurants that are suffering. Yes dovif people will start making their own burgers and frying their own chickens- Jethro get that deep fryer fired up

  6. Cuppa, if serfchoice means more people keep their job, instead of unemployment it might not have been as bad

    In fact, part of what got raised by Pacific Brand consultation with the ALP, was that they are getting out before the ALP industrial legislation came into place.

    This came from the ALP

  7. 1589,

    BH, we haven’t been around in our home long enough to yet receive an electricity bill 😉 …. however, I suspect it will bit as the colder months take over. HOWEVER, it is my understanding from the stories I’ve read in The West (local paper) that WA has had artificially lower prices for a number of years. I bring up that fact as we’ve been living at various times since December 2004 with Melbourne’s / west Sydney’s / Canberra’s electricity prices and I’m sure that what we will see personally, if they are coming “up” to the average is less than I’ve paid at times in the past, esp. ACT. ActewAGL are absolute criminals when it comes to raiding the pocketbook for the electricity and gas bills. They handle both and have a monopoly in the ACT …..

  8. Dovif

    More people would have lost their jobs in the longer term as wages across the serf-force were eroded, and the domestic economy with downhill with it. SerfChoices also removed job security by abolishing protection from unfair dismissal and the obligation on employers to pay redundancy. Business would be laying off staff left right and centre, with nothing at all to stop them.

  9. Yes, Gerry Harvey is a pric* (see below) and my family too will never darken the doorstep of one of his stores again.
    http://council.labor.net.au/minutes/24620071025.html

    “4. From the Shop, Distributive & Allied Employees’ Association, NSW Branch:- condemning comments made earlier this week by billionaire retailer, Gerry Harvey, in which he advocated creating a second tier of workers who would be sourced from overseas and paid 50% of the existing wage paid to local employees. The Union said the proposal is both morally offensive and economically flawed and if Australia wants to remain a developed economy we need to pursue a high skill – high tech model, and not the economic low road. The Union said Mr Harvey’s comments serve to highlight the extent to which the WorkChoices laws have fostered an exploitative approach to wage setting. The Union went on to say 100 years ago Justice Higgins enunciated the principle of fair and reasonable remuneration with a focus on the human person performing the labour, and their right to provide a dignified existence for themselves and their family. The Union said that the approach advocated by Gerry Harvey reduces the human person to a mere commodity serving someone’s preferred economic model, and he needs to be reminded that the economy is not an object to be served, but rather the economy must be a framework which serves its citizens. In conclusion, the Union said the fight to abolish WorkChoices is the first step in re-establishing a platform of wage determination based on fair and reasonable remuneration.

  11. Cuppa

    Have you heard of the supply and demand curve, if wage cost go too high, company goes overseas to get their labour and people loses their jobs.

    A lower wage will always keep more people employed and hopefully over time they can seek advancement (learn new skills) and be better employed.

    This is just basic economic theory.

  12. The payslip issue will die a natural death ….

    [
    The imbroglio over SAS overpayments limps on, but might struggle to make it into the weekend papers, especially as the issue has now boiled down to who is interpreting a payslip correctly. I never really worked out everything on my public service pay slips and I imagine Defence’s aren’t any different, so good luck there.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20090227-The-imbroglio-over-SAS-overpayments-limps-on.html
    ]

  13. Your economic theory would have come unstuck at the first downturn of the economy. Declining wages, imposed absence of job security: People would stop spending, by Liberal-imposed necessity. Confidence of the businesses that rely on consumer spending would plummet, bringing more SerfChoices pay cuts and lay offs.

  14. And don’t forget people lining up for bowls of millet Cuppa.
    Dovif you really don’t get it, I think tories brains are wired up differently. The sense of justice and fairness is sometime that develop at a young age. It just doesn’t develop does it? Dovif why not halve peoples wages and employ another person. Increases in productivity, and the workers should be grateful that they have the job.

  15. AdamIC – who was the bloke in Senates Estimates who was grilling PS re the contract with Andrew Forrest for indigenous workers? APAC unfortunately doesn’t show names very often and we came into late.

    I hope HSO is OK today – I’ve been looking at the forest behind us with its brilliantly green undergrowth and thinking of her. Has anyone heard yet whether things are as bad as expected down there.

    Article in crikey today says that Libs are getting ready to drop Malcolm and put Costello in charge.

    It says that Rudd and Labor are scared stiff of that change – I can just see that. Think of the lines they can use against Costello. Even Biggins on Q&A last night reverberated PK’s line re tip and no iceberg. It will never be forgotten.

  16. BH please post the URL for the Crikey article on MT-PC, please please. If the article is members only, post as much as you can cut and paste ….. can’t go into a long weekend with out having those juicy details ….. thanks 🙂

  22. [AdamIC – who was the bloke in Senates Estimates who was grilling PS re the contract with Andrew Forrest for indigenous workers? APAC unfortunately doesn’t show names very often and we came into late. ]

    Senator Gary Humphries (Lib ACT)

  23. Here it is
    Costello rising: Labor braces for an early election
    Alex Mitchell writes:
    It is becoming increasingly clear that the Liberal Party has decided to drop Malcolm Turnbull and recall Peter Costello to lead them at the next federal election.
    The advance of Costello has spooked Labor which is now quietly preparing for an early election later this year.
    Forget the nonsense written in The Australian about an early election being impossible because of the proposed changes to electoral boundaries in NSW and Queensland. This won’t stop Kevin Rudd from seizing a favourable election opportunity.
    Rob Chalmers, the veteran editor of Inside Canberra and one of the most astute observers of the political environment, tips an early election in today’s edition of his newsletter. Chalmers writes:
    Ignore Lindsay Tanner’s comments that another election is not needed. He is avoiding fostering any early election public speculation. For Kevin Rudd, the case for going early outweigh delaying an election until late next year. Apart from Rudd, the last four Prime Ministers who came to the office after an election went to the people again before the three year limit in the life of each parliament — Whitlam after a year and a half; Fraser after two years; Hawke after one year and eight months; and Howard after two years and eight months.
    All four PMs won, albeit with less of a majority, except Fraser who improved his position. Menzies held a double dissolution a year and four months after defeating the Chifley Government in the 1949 election. In his second period in office of 16 years (19.12.49 — 26.01. 66) Menzies called eight elections, one every two years. No first term government has been denied a second term since the Scullin Labor government elected in 1929. In short early elections are the norm and any newly elected government has to be either very unlucky or very incompetent not to get a second term.
    After the fiasco of the first anniversary of his “Sorry” message to Aboriginal Australians, Rudd and his minders have become worried that the PM is beginning to look like a big talker who doesn’t deliver. His ideas summit shortly after coming to power is another example of his lofty intentions falling flat.
    With a switch to Costello, the Opposition would take a lethal message to the electorate: “Remember how good it was when Costello was Treasurer — look at what Labor has done to the economy. Vote Costello.”
    When he re-arranged the periphery of his ministerial line-up this week, Rudd was bringing forward the candidates for his next Cabinet, if re-elected.
    The promotion of former NSW ALP general secretary Mark Arbib, former ACTU leader Greg Combet and Victorian union leader Bill Shorten to key areas of policy strategy shows it is “all hands on deck” as Labor girds itself for an election.

  24. [Article in crikey today says that Libs are getting ready to drop Malcolm and put Costello in charge. It says that Rudd and Labor are scared stiff of that change.]

    Yeah, right. As I said day or so ago, if Costello becomes leader, we will nail him to WorkChoices and parade him around the country so that all may see and execrate him.

  26. Ok I got that above Adam. Exactly what I thought – there must be screeds of stuff in the cupboard apart from lazy and cowardly as many articles have described him.

  28. From Crikey, Subs required –

    [Lookout! The Japanese train wreck is looming – Even though the fourth quarter growth figures for Australia next week look a bit better than previously thought, there was a horrible reminder this morning of the trainwreck coming at us from Japan.

    Japanese industrial production plunged a record 10% in January, as forecast by most Tokyo economists, topping December’s disastrous slide of 9.8%.

    Output in January was 30.8% lower than January 2008, to go with the near 46% plunge in exports reported earlier in the week.

    With GDP falling an annual 12.7% in the December quarter, there are indications that this quarter could be worse.]

    A train that has been limping from Hokkaido to Fukuoka ever since the Walkman walks out of the door.

    1. They dont know whether they are Arthur or Martha. The older generations think they are the sons and daughters of the Samurai whereas the younguns think they are related to Britney Spear.

    2. They think they are the greatest people in the world. Their purity cannot be tainted by the lowly immigrants.

    3. Me? Started the Pacific War? Never. We were forced into it especially by the chinky eye Chinese. The Nanking Massacre was only an accident anyway.

    4. Yes, we are still superior to the Chinese even though we stole and copied everything from them.

    5. Sayonara, japanese goodbye in Shina no yoru.

  30. I don’t take Rudd to be a chicken so I don’t see him being scared of Costello or Turnbull – dislike them, yeah but then many of the voters do too, but scared or spooked – a big fat no.

  33. 1623, thanks BH ….. will make for very interesting events over the remainder of this year. If all of the speculation is on the mark, sure hope Rudd gets it bloody right on the timing of the election. Carpenter got his timing way off by a few too many weeks 🙁 …..

  34. Adam

    [History is an abstraction. In fact *historians* judge, and I am one.]

    To paraphrase the great man “There is no such thing as history, there are only historians.”

  35. Alex Mitchell writes articles, or did, for the SMH. He seemed to be pretty fair prior to election. Don’t know much more about him but he must be getting a bit old now – may have been laid off or retired from SMH when Ramsey did.

    Gee I miss Ramsey’s articles – I even found them interesting when he laid into Labor. He could turn a phrase.

    Had a bit of a spat with Kerry-Anne Walsh yesterday by email. Told her that her comment on Agenda that she couldn’t understand Joel F’s explanation of the $0.00 balance was easily understood in this house and next door.

    We agree to disagree. I can’t help it if the poor dears in the Canberra Press Gallery need lessons from the masses in how to read payslips

  38. this Mitchell He sounds like a Lib hack to me
    labor running scared
    Rudd’s honeymoon over
    Costello the saviour
    [“Remember how good it was when Costello was Treasurer — look at what Labor has done to the economy. Vote Costello.”]
    lol what a load of …..

  39. 1635 – meant that we mob here could understand when she said she couldn’t.

    Juliem – I am hoping that they don’t go to an early election. I am still hobbling with some wonderful thing called plantar fascitis from treading the streets delivering pamphlets etc. in 2007.

    I don’t think I could stand the stress yet – Rudd/Gillard can still beat them in 2010. Leave it until then. I HATE early elections and most people do.

  42. I was a bit surprised by the article really. I don’t remember his SMH articles as being particularly favourable to the Libs. In fact quite often he was the opposite.

    Perhaps he is just becoming a grumpy old fart and is looking for a bit of controversy to keep himself in a job. He knows he will get lots of comment re that article.

  43. [“Remember how good it was when Costello was Treasurer — look at what Labor has done to the economy. Vote Costello.”]

    For this strategy to succeed would need grossly ignorant voters. Who in the community is unaware of:

    a) the inevitability of economic cycles;
    b) and the existence of the GFC?

    Assuming this is the strategy they take, the strategists must assume that Liberal voters fall squarely into the “grossly ignorant” camp… (And who are we to argue with them! ;))

  45. If Mitchell wants to show us one piece of evidence to show Costello is popular and more to the point more popular than Rudd let him do so. It doesn’t exist. In fact the reverse does.

  48. Vera – you said yesterday you live in the bush. Is that south or north of Sydney.

    I think we are very fortunate to be out of Sydney. I hated leaving it and it took me at least 3 years to slow down and stop missing it but now hubby and I only visit the kids when absolutely necessary. They like coming here instead so that suits all of us.

    Of course we will still do our annual ‘Archibald’ visit. The Gallery is one of the things we miss. All that fantastic talent amongst some pretty ordinary stuff but always a good trip.

    Adam – 1641 is a good one to send to Joe Hockey. He spins facts inaccurately like nobody else.

  49. Early elections are OK in this instance if it means MT as an option as opposed to PC. Don’t anyone be fooled, Rudd still would have won the 07 election if JH had handed over to PC but it would have been much tighter …..There are enough rusted on Libs out there running the PC fan club to make lots of trouble, witness the article you’ve just posted here in the first place 😉 …. one way or the other, PC has to put up or shut up and if Rudd can get the election out of the way before the Libs move, I’m all for it. When the alternative is MT, that well and truely outweighs any early election penalty. The electorate shot themselves in the foot in 01 and 04. The swinging voters won’t go there again 😉 …..

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