Seems Morgan are having one of their occasional weeks off. Plenty of federal preselection action to report, as the parties prepare contingencies for a potential early election:
• The Australian’s Michael Owen reports South Australian Labor is finalising its federal preselections, which “senior factional figures” link to a potential early election. Mia Handshin is keen to run again, either in a second tilt at Sturt or where Nicole Cornes failed in Boothby. Cornes herself has found an interesting new line of work as an industrial officer for the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, but is “unlikely to win preselection”. A “senior ALP figure” nonetheless claims she is a genuine future prospect. Owen also reckons Labor Senator Dana Wortley faces electoral oblivion through “moves to relegate her to an unwinnable third spot”, although it was from that unwinnable position that she actually won her seat in 2004.
• Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam has withdrawn from the contest to succeed Petrio Georgiou as Liberal candidate for Kooyong. He has thrown his support behind industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto, who looms as a threat to merchant banker Josh Frydenberg’s long-held designs on the seat. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports Pesutto also has the support of Ted Baillieu, who angered the Frydenberg camp by attending a function they “claim was to support Mr Pesutto”. Wallace also notes the June preselection will be “one of the first carried out under the Liberal Party’s new constitution, which empowers all eligible members within a seat to vote instead of only specially chosen delegates”. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews is told that “many of them … will be swinging votes with a history of supporting Baillieu/Petro or at least having a significant amount of affection for them or an in-built objection to the recruiting enthusiasms of Joshua”.
• Another interesting preselection for the Victorian Liberals looms in the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin, where two former members are hoping to make a comeback. One is Phil Barresi, who lost the seat to Labor’s Mike Symon in 2007. The other is Ken Aldred, whose eccentric reign extended from 1990 until his preselection defeat by Barresi in 1996. Aldred won a preselection ballot in Holt ahead of the 2007 election, but it was overturned by wiser heads in the party. Rounding out the field of known contenders is Deanna Ryall, a “local businesswoman”. Labor holds the seat with a margin of 1.4 per cent.
• New Queensland Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek foreshadows a more “flexible” approach than his predecessor in negotiating fixed four-year terms, improving the prospects for a referendum on the matter during the current term. Langbroek says it is not a priority, but Anna Bligh has apparently put the matter “on the agenda”. A referendum in 1991 for unfixed four-year terms was defeated with a 51.2 per cent no vote.
• Antony Green on the slow death of the election night tally room:
The next South Australian election will be the first conducted without a tallyroom. Both Victoria and NSW have also decided not to hold tallyroms at state elections due in November 2010 and March 2011. These state decisions may yet play a part in deciding whether free to air broadcasters attend the next Federal tallyroom. There were serious noise problems in the tallyroom in 2007, Sky News already bases its coverage from studio, and hosting from a studio would save the ABC and other free-to-air broadcasters considerable amounts of money and allow greater use of studio technology.
• I am maintaining elsewhere progressively updated posts on two looming electoral events: the May 16 Fremantle by-election and May 2 Tasmanian upper house elections.
Antony, you must be hoping for the DD so you guys can test this idea out sooner rather than later. Given that the next Fed. election is also due in 2010, we shall see that before we see VIC go to the polls I suspect ….. 😉
[
There were serious noise problems in the tallyroom in 2007, Sky News already bases its coverage from studio, and hosting from a studio would save the ABC and other free-to-air broadcasters considerable amounts of money and allow greater use of studio technology.
]
That new Liberal constitution is pretty interesting.
Don’t think I’ll be holding my breath waiting for a referendum on Queensland fixed four year terms from the LNP this term. Hansard reveals that this week the LNP have proven themselves to be unable to come to terms with the recent election result let alone come up with anything constructive.
Yesterday, during the regrowth clearing debate the LNP displayed their worst behaviour for years and they seem to be in no frame of mind to do anything other than whinge and moan in loud voices.
When are the state quarterly Newspolls out? January to March hasn’t been released for any of the states yet!
Hannity could earn $100,000 for charity but just imagine how much you could sell the role of waterboarder for…
[MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann announced on Thursday that he is willing to pay $1,000 to charity for every second that Fox News anchor Sean Hannity undergoes waterboarding torture.
As HuffPost noted yesterday, Hannity was prodded by actor Charles Grodin into agreeing to subject himself to waterboarding to benefit a charity for the families of U.S. soldiers. ]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/23/olbermann-calls-hannitys_n_190869.html
Re William’s post, the 3rd ALP spot in SA isn’t actually that unwinnable. Xenophon isn’t up for re-election, and the SA isn’t natural Green territory. SA could easily elect 3 ALP 3 Lib.
I know what I would like to do to with Sean Hannity Diogs he’ll think the waterboard torture was heaven 😉
Antony’s site:
[So the South Australian election will be important for the ABC, and all available equipment has already been booked. That’s one of the benefits of fixed-term parliaments. ]
He’s technically correct I spose, but not really.
[the Governor may dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them]
Here’s a sample from former Opposition Leader Seeney who was the first speaker in the debate for the LNP and they got progressively sillier as the day went on.
[Mr ROBERTSON: The member is misleading the House. I ask him to withdraw. This legislation was initiated by a pre-election commitment announced by the Premier prior to the election.
Madam DEPUTY SPEAKER: Will the member withdraw?
Mr SEENEY: I never made a personal reference to the minister so I do not have anything to withdraw.
Madam DEPUTY SPEAKER: Would the minister put his point of order again and be specific, please?
Mr ROBERTSON: I am happy to withdraw it, Madam Deputy Speaker.
Mr Johnson: Because he’s telling the truth, that’s why.
Mr ROBERTSON: I find that remark by the member for Gregory offensive and I ask him to withdraw.
Mr SEENEY: You are offensive, old mate. You will find out what offensive is when you go out into the bush.
Mr Robertson: Is this another personal threat you are making?
Mr SEENEY: I was merely drawing to your attention the reality.
Mr Robertson: That is the third personal threat you have made.
Madam DEPUTY SPEAKER: Will the member be seated.
Mr ROBERTSON: I ask that the member be referred to the appropriate committee for making personal threats against another member of parliament.
Madam DEPUTY SPEAKER: Will the minister put his point of order in writing.
Mr ROBERTSON: Once I review Hansard I will refer it to the Speaker’s Office, thank you.] Page 182 yesterday’s Queensland Parliament Hansard.
http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/hansard/documents/2009.pdf/2009_04_23_DAILY.pdf
No way bob.
Mr X will have a Mr X candidate at the next election who will win a SA Senate seat. High profile. Count on it.
lol, clowns.
[Mr X will have a Mr X candidate at the next election who will win a SA Senate seat. High profile. Count on it.]
Hmm, depends on who.
And remember, Xenophon ran as an independent, not “Independent No Pokies”. If Mr X has a candidate at the next election, they’ll also be running as a simple independent, with no attachment to Nick Xenophon or No Pokies…
[There were serious noise problems in the tallyroom in 2007, Sky News already bases its coverage from studio, and hosting from a studio would save the ABC and other free-to-air broadcasters considerable amounts of money and allow greater use of studio technology. ]
Though in WA the ABC Studios ARE the Tallyroom 🙂 and in this case only the ABC, and on a much smaller level, Ch 7 did their election coverage from there – in 7’s case it was only involved live crosses of 5-10 min duration, Ch 9 & 10 didn’t even bother.
Here are some memories of a time when Ch 7 did a full coverage.
Nick Xenophon’s No Pokies got 1.3 per cent when Xenophon wasn’t on the ballot paper in 2002. I’d need to be persuaded that the same pattern won’t repeat in the Senate.
bob
He/she will be heavily endorsed by Mr X.
And why the hell won’t the Labor Party put Mia up in my seat of Boothby? She’ll lose in Sturt again. If they run Mia in Boothby, I promise never to complain about the CPRS again. 5%-15% would be the best and most balanced target. Penny Wong knows exactly what she’s doing. 😉
Mythbusters tried out water-boarding in one episode. The woman lasted two seconds and you could see she was about to freak out. They released her immediately.
Nothing more humorous than Greens arguing about who will win Senate seats. All the polls show that Rudd Labor will win a majority in most States at the next election and cut out the Kumbayaists.
Finger pointing and stern looks of admonition don’t cut it in the new Labor Nirvana reality.
Please be as disappointed as you like.
GG
You’re not saying Labor will have a Senate majority are you?
[Nick Xenophon’s No Pokies got 1.3 per cent when Xenophon wasn’t on the ballot paper in 2002.]
I don’t recall the running mate being high profile – this was before everyone realised his popularity in 2006. It was thought in 2006 that Xenophon would struggle to be re-elected.
[I’d need to be persuaded that the same pattern won’t repeat in the Senate.]
Same.
Diogs,
I can say anything at this time of the night.
Labor is travelling extremely well and the minor party parasites are really going to struggle.
My guess is that the Nats and the Greens will hold the balance of power after the next election.
[Labor is travelling extremely well and the minor party parasites are really going to struggle.]
Like every election since 1996, the Green vote in Newspoll and others has increased since the election preceeding it.
But we’re well aware of your hatred of the Greens GG. Suck it up princess.
Bob,
I fart in your general direction.
GG
Mr X isn’t a minor party. He’s an independent. 😛
The ALP are in competition with the Greens for the left vote.
I wouldnt think the ALP like the Greens much more than the Libs to be frank.
Dio that is crazy is there going to be a Mr X Party then?
He has more power as one man and he has no appeal outside SA.
Bob it is a shame the Greens have taken the rabid left vote whereas at least the Democrats didnt cause too much trouble, id far rather there be Democrats in the Senate than Watermellons!
Glen
He’ll only run a candidate in SA. It won’t be a Party. It will just be a heavily endorsed Independent who ha campaigns for.
[Bob it is a shame the Greens have taken the rabid left vote whereas at least the Democrats didnt cause too much trouble, id far rather there be Democrats in the Senate than Watermellons!]
The Greens have surprised everyone in showing that they will compromise on legislation rather than stand their ground.
Xenophon stands his ground more than the Greens, and Fielding even more so.
I think the Greens will do reasonably well but I doubt they’ll win another seat in SA. I think it will be either 3/3 or 3 ALP, 2 Lib and one Xenophontist if he can find a strong candidate
Bob good luck compromising on the ETS LOL!
Dio he/she wont win though unless their name starts with Y or Z.
[He’ll only run a candidate in SA. It won’t be a Party. It will just be a heavily endorsed Independent who ha campaigns for.]
Yeah… ticket will show.
Independent – Joe Blow.
There’ll be no ticket connection to Xenophon. It won’t be as easy to elect a Xenophon-media-endorsed candidate as you think. People vote for Xenophon, not people he endorses, because there’s no coherent underpinning of ideology. What will the running mate support? Will it be Xenophon’s? His own? Who knows.
Diogenes,
Labor 36, Liberal 31, Greens 5, Mr X, 1, Nats 3.
His best move would be to register “Nick Xenophon Independents” as a party name and his candidate would then be linked to his name on the ballot paper.
GG’s vitriol directed at The Greens always cracks me up.
Half the time he argues that their irrelevant ferals who will never hold any position of influence and the other half he spends attempting to bring down their arguments.
The latter seems pretty pointless if you actually believe the former.
bob1234
It’ll be someone better than Bressington. 😛
Brian Deegan is one name that comes to mind.
Glen,
Sorry to disappoint you, but Labor has actually shed the left wing ratbags and has captured the moderate Liberal vote.
The reason the Libs are getting their arse kicked is that Labor has moved to the middle and pushed your side out to the outer extremities.
Sure you’ve got a moderate Leader, but everyone knows those right wing religous nut bags are controlling the party and the Libs have been taken over by anti family swine.
Why would he endorse a candidate?
It wouldn’t greatly increase his chance of holding the balance of power and if he didn’t then having another independent senator would be fairly pointless.
GG
Seeing that you are in a soothsayer mode care to predict Labor seats in lower house?
Oz
Mr X endorsed Brock who won that bizarre Frome by-election earlier in the year. It would help him to have twice the resources and staff. How he keeps up with the legislation by himself is beyond me. He’s meant to be a workaholic.
[the Libs have been taken over by anti family swine.]
This is a bit tough on swine, who are well known to be both uxorious and philoprogenitive.
“anti family” is as ridiculous a term as “pro-family”.
GG the ALP has virtually given up on the rabid left, they moved to the right to win the election which squeezed the Libs into the shite corner.
or “working family” which is my personal favourite.
Adam IMHO the Liberals would have been better off not swtiching to McMahon.
After all Gorton has beaten Whitlam before when the swing was on. He was a much more colourful character to place against Whitlam too.
I’d have given Gorts a better chance of holding off Whitlam in 72 than McMahon.
McMahon was a disaster from start to finish the only thing good about him was his wife.
Oz,
I am underwhelmed by your criticisms.
On the one hand I am delighted you spend so much time defending Green positions especially about environmental issues. I ‘m happy that someone like you is off the streets and small furry animals are safe from molestation.
On the other hand, I worry that someone might press on through the impenetrable dogma and rubbish you serve up and actually believe that you’ve got something to say.
In the end, I believe that common sense will prevail.
[GG the ALP has virtually given up on the rabid left, they moved to the right to win the election which squeezed the Libs into the shite corner.]
The ALP gave up on the “rabid left” a long time ago, if they ever appealed directly to them at all.
The only relevant point is that prior to The Greens becoming a credible political option, what Glen would dub the “rabid left” had no one to vote for besides Labor.
I don’t recall any criticisms.
Paraphrasing Bishop (ew), you need to relax with the angst.
[Bob good luck compromising on the ETS LOL!]
There’s nothing in the way the Greens have acted so far on Rudd legislation to suggest that in the end they won’t give in and say ‘be it on your head’.
Glen,
Are you doing one of those re-birthing processes?
If you are, it won’t be long till you are back to Menzies.
[Mr X endorsed Brock who won that bizarre Frome by-election earlier in the year. It would help him to have twice the resources and staff. How he keeps up with the legislation by himself is beyond me. He’s meant to be a workaholic.]
I don’t think X had much to do with Brock’s success.
[There’s nothing in the way the Greens have acted so far on Rudd legislation to suggest that in the end they won’t give in and say ‘be it on your head’.]
I’ve pointed this out once before, but I don’t think you’re on safe ground extrapolating The Greens tactics on previous bills to how they’re going act on the ETS. The reason why is that the other policies have either been ones that the government has a clear mandate for and which The Greens don’t have a strong ideological or political argument against or ones like the stimulus package which aren’t traditional Green issues but they respect the government was elected to lead and has the advice of Treasury etc.
When it comes to climate change, The Greens have their own policy which they’ve been spruiking and refining for years. They also have a significant number of voters who they would not want to alienate – nor do they want to be viewed as Labor stooge.
I’m not suggesting that it’s guaranteed that The Greens will block it but I think that they will not approach it with the same level of acquiescence that they have given to past government legislation.