Essential Research: 56-44

Labor’s two-party lead from Essential Research is up slightly following last week’s dive, from 55-45 to 56-44. Also featured are questions on the financial state of the companies respondents work for, future spending plans, confidence in the economy, “concern over job situation”, government regulation of the financial sector and whether an election will be justified if the “opposition refuses to pass” emissions tradding scheme legislation. Interestingly, the response to the latter question is 33 per cent yes and 37 per cent no, compared with 41 per cent and 29 per cent in April.

• The talk of the town this week is Section 44 (iii) of the Constitution, which provides that any person who is an undischarged bankrupt or insolvent shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a Senator or a member of the House of Representatives. Such designation could shortly apply to Bob Brown, who has been advised by Forestry Tasmania he faces bankruptcy proceedings if he does not come good on an order to pay $239,368 costs stemming from a failed bid to stop logging in Tasmania’s Wielangta forests. With offers of support flooding in from sources including Dick Smith, one suspects he’ll keep the wolf from the door. Ken Jeffreys of Forestry Tasmania describes Brown’s appeal as a “public holiday, slow-news-day media stunt”, while Bronwyn Bishop queries the Greens’ determination that the matter is Brown’s problem rather than theirs.

Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Craig Langdon, the state Labor member for Ivanhoe, faces a preselection challenge from by Labor Unity colleague Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor, chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike and son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines. A text message from Langdon to local party members accuses Carbines of disregarding his offer to vacate the seat for him at the election after next. Landeryou blames the episoode on moves the prohibit political staffers from serving as councillors in the wake of the Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank Council, foreseeing further such action from “a tribe of angry, politically very well connected and shafted staffer-councillors who have been told to choose between their day jobs and their passion of politics and community service”.

• The ABC reports Scott Bacon, 32-year-old son of the late former Premier Jim Bacon, is seeking preselection in Denison for next year’s state election. Bacon is an economist and adviser to Energy and Resources Minister David Llewellyn.

• Poll Bludger regular Oz has started a blog devoted to New South Wales state politics, which is the kind of thing we should have more of. Do visit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,752 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44”

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  1. [We have no allegations of Brown helping Dick Smith.]

    Yet – never underestimate the ability of some media outlets to fabricate stuff. 😉

  2. [On what issues exactly do you think that Labor lacks social progressivism?]

    Adam,

    Federally, I think the main issues are Industrial Relations (in particlaur the ABCC), refugees (especially under Beasley), fees for tertiary education and support for the Iraq War.

    On a State level in WA, I think the main issue is Laura Norder. Especially their support for manadatory sentencing, assets seizure and a general breaking down the protections in the criminal justice system.

  3. [Why not – he is a politican and like those on ALL sides Questions have to be asked ? or is it that Bob Brown is exempt because of who he is ?]

    Allegations have been leveled against Rudd that who he got his gift from have benefitted from it. No such allegations have been made against Brown.

    The allegations have yet to be disproven.

    I’m not saying the allegations are true, but its hypocritical in that context to criticise Brown but not Rudd.

  4. [We have allegations of the Labor government helping the dealership. We have no allegations of Brown helping Dick Smith.]

    Says who? There have been plenty of questions asked of what DS will receive in return in here…

  5. [ All related documents need to be tabled if they have nothing to hide ]

    Well the msm and the libs have told australians forcefully for a week or so of the evil and danger of accepting the loan of a 13 year old ute, so $240 k in cold hard cash must the galactically evil and darsteadly…..

  6. [On a State level in WA, I think the main issue is Laura Norder. Especially their support for manadatory sentencing, assets seizure and a general breaking down the protections in the criminal justice system.]

    Can’t be helped when the only daily newspaper and only commercial Talkback station are on your back on a daily basis it’s called Damned if you do, Damned if you don’t.

  7. [Yet – never underestimate the ability of some media outlets to fabricate stuff. 😉 ]

    Excellent! Thankyou! So there’s no allegations yet, but anti-Green Laborites are already accusing Brown of it when there’s no allegation!

    Yet Rudd has had allegations made against him which are yet to be disproven. But we don’t hear a peep on that from the same people.

    It’s hypocritical.

  8. [Says who? There have been plenty of questions asked of what DS will receive in return in here…]

    And the allegation is…?

  9. [Can’t be helped when the only daily newspaper and only commercial Talkback station are on your back on a daily basis it’s called Damned if you do, Damned if you don’t.]

    But why pass law that you know to be bad just because the media pressured you into it?

  10. O no! It gets worse….. Mr Smith says he and OTHER entrepreneurs will help Senator Brown raise the money

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/09/2593414.htm

    Who are these OTHER people…what do they expect in return ???

    All documents and tapes of conversations MUST be tabled !

    Did any of the money come from China or are any of these OTHER people Chinese !!

    🙂

    Oh how the worm has turned !!

  11. [But why pass law that you know to be bad just because the media pressured you into it?]

    Because if you don’t, you will be precieved as being weak on Law & Order – you do recall Sattler’s Crusade on the Three Strikes legislation now don’t you ?

  12. [Who are these OTHER people…what do they expect in return ??? ]

    This is hilarious. Why aren’t you so suspicious of Rudd’s car? He got something so he MUST be giving benefits back to them. Oh, they’re only allegations? They can’t be proven?

    Well it’s a shame you can’t apply the same standard of proof to Bob Brown.

    Hypocritical.

  13. [Because if you don’t, you will be precieved as being weak on Law & Order – you do recall Sattler’s Crusade on the Three Strikes legislation now don’t you ?]

    But Frank, whats the point? If you are not implementing your policy and your beliefs then why do you want to be in power?

  14. There needs be be a senate inquiry into this whole matter.

    Nah make that two senate enquiries and a referral to the productivity commission.

  15. [But Frank, whats the point? If you are not implementing your policy and your beliefs then why do you want to be in power?]

    Power for power’s sake, and to go “Ner ner Liberals, you’re not in power cause we’re implementing your policies”.

    Yes, some Labor supporters can be rather bizarre.

  16. I think Dave’s being ironic. At least, I hope he is, because it’s quite funny. If he’s being serious it’s just sad.

    [But Frank, whats the point? If you are not implementing your policy and your beliefs then why do you want to be in power?]

    It’s so you can be better than the Libs, “on aggregate”.

  17. [But Frank, whats the point? If you are not implementing your policy and your beliefs then why do you want to be in power?]

    No it’s called living in a political reality – something the Greens have a hard time getting their heads around – or in Labor’s case ensuring you remain in opposition because you were deemed to be out of touch with MAINSTREAM Australia.

  18. [I used to get all these flash glossy newsletters and leaflets from my MP when Howard was in govt, the leaflet I got today looked like it had been done on a home computer lol
    Amazing the difference when you haven’t got control of the nation’s pursestrings.]
    Sounds like the conservatives are saving up their pennies and putting them in a war chest in case of a DD election. No more rivers of gold and largesse from the government benches for them to indulge in.

  19. [ I think Dave’s being ironic. At least, I hope he is, because it’s quite funny. If he’s being serious it’s just sad. ]

    Oz, for heavens sake – just taking the mickey about the msm and other reaction to the loaned ute.

    Seriously though, BB dishes stuff out – about time he got some back !

  20. [No it’s called living in a political reality – something the Greens have a hard time getting their heads around – or in Labor’s case ensuring you remain in opposition because you were deemed to be out of touch with MAINSTREAM Australia.]

    Where do you get this dribble?

    Every federal Labor government in Australia’s history was booted out over the state of the economy.

  21. I see we still haven’t moved on from the Labor vs Greens “who’s the biggest hypocrite” argument in the last four days. 🙁

    GG

    The Blees book “Prescription for the Planet” arrived. I got an extra copy for the Bludgers who are interested. Do you want me to send you it? I’ll get your address from William.

  22. [Where do you get this dribble?]

    Watch the clip and educate yourself – It’s just not about the economy alone.

  23. [Every federal Labor government in Australia’s history was booted out over the state of the economy.]

    I was responding to Luke’s comment about Luara Norder.

  24. [Watch the clip and educate yourself – It’s just not about the economy alone.]

    Labor was booted out in 1996 over the economy and Keating’s arrogance. Law and order didn’t come in to it.

  25. [I’d have voted Labor in Whitlam’s day, later I voted for the Democrats then Labor 2nd, now I vote Greens then Labor second.
    Who is dyed in the wool exactly?]
    Bob, I was just askin. I wasn’t insinuating you are a “dyed in the wool” Green supporter. I was asking whether your description of a person who follows the party line and acts like a drone also applies to “dyed in the wool” Green supporters. Yes, no maybe?

  26. [Bob, I was just askin. I wasn’t insinuating you are a “dyed in the wool” Green supporter. I was asking whether your description of a person who follows the party line and acts like a drone also applies to “dyed in the wool” Green supporters. Yes, no maybe?]

    Yes.

  27. [Finns, I understand that interpretation. However, it looks extremely dodgy to me]

    GG, that’s why i said it’s political. i heard BB said he’s going to talk to his bank manager, obviously for a “loan”. Now, if he can take out a “loan” from a bank, he can gets a “loan” from any source.

    At the least, if he gets a “loan” from a bank and somebody else acts as his personal guarantor to his “loan”, then the result is the same.

    You see “loan” is a very slippery eel, just ask any “investment banker” or company director.

    😀

  28. 28,

    (original post wasn’t mine but might as well have been so i’m chiming in 😀 )

    [
    I’m Labor at heart but have become dissolutioned with Labor’s lack of social progressivism

    (I take it you mean disillusioned.) On what issues exactly do you think that Labor lacks social progressivism?
    ]

    1. refugee treatment
    2. republic, ditch the monarchy already
    3. ??

    bob1234 what else have I misssed? 😀

  29. Bob Brown will have to amend his pecuniary interest register by the end of the month. All donations over $10,500 will need to be disclosed.

    If anyone thinks some media lackey will not be given the job of investigating every contact any donor has ever had with BB, they have rocks in their heads.

    Remember these guys can fabricate a “story” from thin air – undisclosed sources etc.

    The pain for BB is only just beginning – unfortunately. 🙁

  30. Well I just found out my great great grandpa (dads side) was replaced by hoover as manager of the “new sons of gwalia goldmine.”

    how history would have changed if my great great granpa hadnt resigned (he ended up going into wa politics!)

    anyone else have a couldabeen moment ??

  31. juliem: [bob1234 what else have I misssed? ]

    Adam: [On what issues exactly do you think that Labor lacks social progressivism?]

    me: [Rebecca and I listed a stack of issues and you (Adam) were there reading it. I’m not going back to that debate.]

  32. [Bob Brown will have to amend his pecuniary interest register by the end of the month. All donations over $10,500 will need to be disclosed.

    If anyone thinks some media lackey will not be given the job of investigating every contact any donor has ever had with BB, they have rocks in their heads.

    Remember these guys can fabricate a “story” from thin air – undisclosed sources etc.

    The pain for BB is only just beginning – unfortunately.]

    I think you’re forgetting something. Proof needs to be given that Brown gave them something in return. Now are the Greens in government? Makes it pretty hard to do things for them if they dont hold the pursestrings 😉

  33. [Federally, I think the main issues are Industrial Relations (in particlaur the ABCC), refugees (especially under Beasley), fees for tertiary education and support for the Iraq War.]

    * On IR: We said at the election we would scrap WorkChoices and we have done so. The new system will restore protections for workers, particularly unskilled and low-paid. We are abolishing the ABCC and its functions will be absorbed by FWA. We are retaining a special regime for the construction industry because it is still plagued by criminality and violence. If the CFMEU don’t like this they should clean up their act.
    * Refugees: We have abolished the Pacific Solution and TPVs. We take in 13,000 refugees a year. All boat arrivals are promptly processed at Xmas Is and those found to be refugees are admitted.
    * Fees for tertiary education: Australia cannot afford to provide a free higher education for everyone. Graduates are required to repay *part* of the cost of their degree through HECS when they reach a certain earning level. This is a form of (retrospective) means testing, which is highly socially progressive measure since it frees up funds to benefit the less advantaged. Free degrees for the upper middle class is just a rort, which Labor rightly abolished.
    * Iraq War: Labor opposed the Iraq War from day one.

  34. ru,

    There has to be consequences. What Brown is doing is a perversion of the Australian parliamentary standards of representation. All the caterwauling from the Greens acoltytes here and the good will afforded to Bambi Bob should not prevent the thorough investigation of this highly unusual and i believe dubious approach to combining his personal and political responsibilities.

  35. [I think you’re forgetting something. Proof needs to be given that Brown gave them something in return. Now are the Greens in government? Makes it pretty hard to do things for them if they dont hold the pursestrings ;)]

    It could be that Dick Smith and others would expect the Greens to consider their views when deciding to ether vote for, or against legislation which would have some sort of impact ether personally and professionally.

  36. Gary,

    Depends if the wool came from muletised sheep and whether the dye contains polluting toxins.

  37. Greensborough
    You are King of Hyperbole, why would anyone care what you think?

    “What Brown is doing is a perversion of the Australian parliamentary standards of representation. All the caterwauling from the Greens acoltytes here and the good will afforded to Bambi Bob should not prevent the thorough investigation of this highly unusual and i believe dubious approach to combining his personal and political responsibilities.”

    Nothing that Bob Brown has done in any way reflects what you are claiming. What you are doing is smearing. Give it a break.

  38. [Nothing that Bob Brown has done in any way reflects what you are claiming. What you are doing is smearing. Give it a break.]

    It’s cause he’s from the Greens. It’s an ideological argument, not a practical one based in reality.

  39. [Nothing that Bob Brown has done in any way reflects what you are claiming. What you are doing is smearing. Give it a break.]

    So in Brown’s case it is smearing, but when the same standards are applied to the Major Parties the Greens declare that it is “in the interests of public accountability” ?

    What Double Standards.

  40. [Why would a 63 year old Senator, with 16 years of salary over $100,000 not be able to find $240,000?]

    He’s already spent $600,000 on the court case in the past few years. Not to mention he has a life which he spends money in. He’s not made of money.

    Go find some facts rather than baseless assertions.

  41. Astrobleme,

    You seem to care a lot about what I think.

    Does anyone else use their Parliamentary standing as a pulpit to beg for money to settle personal debts?

    I thought we paid our politicians enough through salary, allowances and super that they should be able to manage quite comfortably. Makes you wonder about the economic credibility of the Greens.

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