Essential Research: 56-44

Labor’s two-party lead from Essential Research is up slightly following last week’s dive, from 55-45 to 56-44. Also featured are questions on the financial state of the companies respondents work for, future spending plans, confidence in the economy, “concern over job situation”, government regulation of the financial sector and whether an election will be justified if the “opposition refuses to pass” emissions tradding scheme legislation. Interestingly, the response to the latter question is 33 per cent yes and 37 per cent no, compared with 41 per cent and 29 per cent in April.

• The talk of the town this week is Section 44 (iii) of the Constitution, which provides that any person who is an undischarged bankrupt or insolvent shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a Senator or a member of the House of Representatives. Such designation could shortly apply to Bob Brown, who has been advised by Forestry Tasmania he faces bankruptcy proceedings if he does not come good on an order to pay $239,368 costs stemming from a failed bid to stop logging in Tasmania’s Wielangta forests. With offers of support flooding in from sources including Dick Smith, one suspects he’ll keep the wolf from the door. Ken Jeffreys of Forestry Tasmania describes Brown’s appeal as a “public holiday, slow-news-day media stunt”, while Bronwyn Bishop queries the Greens’ determination that the matter is Brown’s problem rather than theirs.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Craig Langdon, the state Labor member for Ivanhoe, faces a preselection challenge from by Labor Unity colleague Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor, chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike and son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines. A text message from Langdon to local party members accuses Carbines of disregarding his offer to vacate the seat for him at the election after next. Landeryou blames the episoode on moves the prohibit political staffers from serving as councillors in the wake of the Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank Council, foreseeing further such action from “a tribe of angry, politically very well connected and shafted staffer-councillors who have been told to choose between their day jobs and their passion of politics and community service”.

• The ABC reports Scott Bacon, 32-year-old son of the late former Premier Jim Bacon, is seeking preselection in Denison for next year’s state election. Bacon is an economist and adviser to Energy and Resources Minister David Llewellyn.

• Poll Bludger regular Oz has started a blog devoted to New South Wales state politics, which is the kind of thing we should have more of. Do visit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,752 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44”

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  2. The CSL vaccine is in clinical trials now – once again Australia leads the world. 🙂

    [The Federal Government will spend more than $28.8 million on influenza and related programs in 2008-09 with a record 2.712 million doses of influenza vaccine distributed to GPs, at clinics or in nursing homes in 2008. ]

    http://www.health.gov.au/internet/ministers/publishing.nsf/Content/mr-yr09-je-je047.htm

    This is the plain old ordinary non-piggy vaccine, its costs about $10 a pop. Every person in Oz will want a piggy vaccine. Will the Govt spend $200 million to vaccinate everyone?

    I doubt it.

  3. The practical problem with the handling of swine flu is that it is a mild illness akin to yearly flu, not the killer that most pandemic plans are made for. There needs to be a balance between the inconvenience and disruption resulting from effective anti-flu measures and the potential danger of the flu. If this pandemic flu was a contagious, deadly version of avian flu, do you think there would be any qualms about suspending arrivals from Mexico, US or any other hotspot? Would major sporting events and large gatherings of people be allowed to continue as business as usual? Would we have damage control from the tourism industry and other apologists?

    I suspect there’s no real consensus in the medical community on the correct balance between inconvenience and containment for a flu of this minor severity. And the MM is glaring in its inconsistency, with a trend to sensationalism to sell papers, ears or eyeballs.

  4. It’s Time

    I agree with your post except “…that it is a mild illness akin to yearly flu,…”

    [On average between 1997- 2006, 2,758 Australians died each year from influenza and pneumonia. ]

    ‘flu, of any description, is not a mild illness.

  5. [On average between 1997- 2006, 2,758 Australians died each year from influenza and pneumonia. ]

    Yes, but as we already mentioned, the largest group of these are people over 85. These people are really dying of old age. Question for someone: how many people between the ages of 1 and 65, who did not already have another serious illness, died of flu/pneumonia last year? I bet it’s not many.

  12. News Ltd has “The Punch” and now Fairfax has a revamped National Times:

    [The website will replace the opinion section on news sites including theage.com.au and will feature the best of Fairfax’s opinion writing, commentary and analysis, coupled with guest commentaries from politicians, academics and other public figures, the publisher said in a statement.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/national-times-set-for-online-relaunch-20090612-c67k.html

  13. Its Time

    Smallpox basically exists in a test tube in a couple of research labs, typhoid should not occur since, “the vandals took the handle”, tuberculosis is a problem again since HIV where 41% of deaths occur in HIV + people.

    🙁

  15. [Question for someone: how many people between the ages of 1 and 65, who did not already have another serious illness, died of flu/pneumonia last year?]

    I’m not sure why you are excluding <1 year olds in that question. Their death is just as tragic as any other child’s.

    I can only extrapolate from talking to an ICU doc friend. He says only a few healthy people die a year on the ICUs he works on, which would cover half of SA’s population. So probably about 5 a year in SA, so perhaps 50 deaths in healthy young people a year in SA.

  16. Apparently Bill and melinda gates spent years deciding what was the “clear and present danger to mankind”

    Hence they established the B+M gates foundation to fight malaria.

  18. The Crows have lost a player to flu (awaiting results) and he’s gone into quarantine.

    [ADELAIDE have been hit by a swine flu scare on the eve of their AFL round 12 match against North Melbourne.

    Young onballer Richard Douglas reported symptoms of the flu yesterday and was withdrawn from the side to play the Kangaroos on Saturday morning, being placed in quarantine pending the results of testing. ]

  21. [What about the other 90%?]

    Death is a natural and necessary part of life. It doesn’t have to have a cause. I would think the large majority of people die at the end of their natural life span.

  23. GG

    Woody was also asked once whether he was hoping to achieve immortality through the films he left behind. He answered that he was actually hoping to achieve immortality by not dying.

    Tom

    Non-specific infections like chest infections and gastro kill about the same number as HIV, malaria plus TB.

  24. [Obviously Lee Rhiannon wants to use the Greens as a vehicle to relaunch the Communist Party, in which she was brought up. It will be interesting to see if Brown can stop her.]

    The NSW Greens are exempt from many clauses of the “Green Constitution” I wonder why?

  28. [The NSW Greens are exempt from many clauses of the “Green Constitution” I wonder why?]

    Expect the usual defence of that from the usual posters, oh and they’ll mention the ALP and Branch Stacking as an example of why you or I cannot com ment on their in house woes.

  30. [Are you implying the Greens are a bunch of unreconstructured Communists?]

    Who me?

    The Greenies are all at the pissup after their spectacular demo against the CPRS today. Huge turnout. Not quite as pathetic as the 1,000 opposing Capt. Bligh’s privatisation but a close second. 😉

  31. ruawake

    The Malaria-DDT debate is one of the hottest in global public health. It’s way beyond my pay grade to comment intelligently on it but this article is pretty balanced. They make the good point that even if Africa used DDT to reduce malaria deaths, they would be crippled by debt because the EU and US ban any imports with even a trace of DDT.

    It’s a problem from hell.

    http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/317

  34. whoops, try again:-)

    Polyquats:

    This comment on the Make A Wish Foundation’s telemarketers puts it all into perspective and is another reason why as a Disabled Person am appalled at the tatics used by these organisations in order to raise money.

    [I was called by a Make a Wish Foundation telemarketer recently. She explained to me that unless I helped them financially, some terminally ill children would not get the wish that they had asked for. I offered a sum of money but was told that there was a minimum donation. Whether or not it was intended, the phone call made me feel very guilty, almost as if I were personally responsible for upsetting a very ill child.

    Maybe the Chasers recieved a call similar to this one prior to writing the sketch?
    Posted by Spikyone, Saturday, 13 June 2009 9:16:31 AM]

    http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=9042&page=0

  35. [It’s a problem from hell]

    Yep I agree – malaria was almost wiped out, DDT was banned, malaria parasite bounces back. Even the WHO have changed their mind and recommend its limited use.

    Guess it does not matter – its only a problem in 3rd world countries, 🙁

  36. Quote from the smh article from which you linked:

    [The environment underpins the Greens but Rhiannon wants a broader agenda. Telstra’s privatisation is a case in point. In 2002 Brown failed to convince the party to permit the sale of Telstra in exchange for significant environmental concessions. Rhiannon, the “proud daughter” of Communist parents, staunchly opposed him.]

    You imply the following:

    Psephos @ 1669

    [Obviously Lee Rhiannon wants to use the Greens as a vehicle to relaunch the Communist Party, in which she was brought up. It will be interesting to see if Brown can stop her.]

    ??? Or is there something more in that article from which you draw such a conclusion? If so, please enlighten me. 🙂

  40. [Or is there something more in that article from which you draw such a conclusion?]

    There’s nothing more in the article. It was a sad attempt to conflate Rhiannon’s parents political history to NSW Greens policy.

    It’s disconnected from reality and the only people who’ll buy it are those who already think the Greens are communists, people like Adam and ruawake, so no harm done.

    I wrote a post on that article and current Greens pre-selection tensions here:

    http://macquariestreet.wordpress.com/2009/06/13/talk-about-us-say-the-greens/

  41. [The Greenies are all at the pissup after their spectacular demo against the CPRS today. Huge turnout. Not quite as pathetic as the 1,000 opposing Capt. Bligh’s privatisation but a close second.]

    But certainly greater than the 3 men and a dog at the Anti Net Filter rallies ? 🙂

  42. Oz,

    It does not help the perception that pro Communists like Rhiannon are seeking to take over the Greens.

    See the NDP debacle for a reference.

  44. Bill and Freida Brown weren’t just Communists, they were hardline pro-Soviet Stalinists, who left the CPA in 1971 because it wasn’t hardline enough.

    One of the reasons why the Socialist Alliance has failed so badly to revive communism as a political force is that all the old comms with any brains have joined the Greens, where they know their superior discipline will enable them to manipulate the naive hippies. The same thing happened with the Nuclear Disarmament Party after 1984, but Garrett refused to be manipulated and walked out.

  47. [It does not help the perception that pro Communists like Rhiannon are seeking to take over the Greens.]

    No it doesn’t, but given the perception is limited to already rabid anti-Greenies such as yourself, it doesn’t bother anyone.

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