Willagee by-election: November 28

Tuesday, November 24

Comments thread troublemaker Frank Calabrese has caught the attention of The West Australian’s Inside Cover.

Saturday, November 14

The Fremantle Herald reports Gerry Georgatos is forming a new party he proposes to call the “Real Greens”. Such a name would certainly not be permissible under the Commonwealth Electoral Act, but the state’s Electoral Act does not contain a provision equivalent to that prohibiting a name which “a reasonable person would think suggests that a connection or relationship exists between the party and a registered party if that connection or relationship does not in fact exist” (which was designed to disqualify Liberals for Forests and others like it). Georgatos also disputes Lynn MacLaren’s denial last week that she had been behind the preselection of Hsien Harper, saying she had previously admitted this to him.

UPDATE: I’ve been provided with a more in-depth version of the same article, presumably from the Melville or Cockburn version of the Herald.

Sunday, November 8

The Sunday Times reports Georgatos will be directing preferences to Labor:

Labor candidate Peter Tinley’s chances of winning the Willagee state by-election have been boosted, with independent Gerry Georgatos giving preferences to Labor at the November 28 poll. Mr Georgatos, who unsuccessfully sought pre-selection for Willagee for the Greens, said apart from himself, he believed Mr Tinley was the best candidate. He said Greens candidate Hsien Harper was a “good person”, but he believed Mr Tinley was a better candidate. Mr Georgatos denied giving Labor his preferences as payback for not being pre-selected.

Friday, November 6

fremherald051109maclarenThis week’s Fremantle Herald features a letter from Greens MLC Lynn MacLaren (right) in which she rejects claims the branch meeting that preselected Hsien Harper was stacked, saying the party’s “consensus decision-making” means “branch stacking isn’t possible”. One who begs to differ is Steve Walker, who has told the paper he quit because of “the appalling dishonesty and branch-stacking within the party”. Notwithstanding that he is no longer involved with the party, Walker claims the Willagee preselection was “all the handiwork of Lynn”, whom he labels “the Brian Burke of the Greens”. The paper also corrects its assertion last week that Walker’s gripe had been that he was overlooked for preselection in Fremantle at the expense of Adele Carles – his aspirations had in fact been for the South Metropolitan seat currently occupied by MacLaren. Walker then proceeded to run as an independent, and lodged an above-the-line preference ticket which was punitive with respect to MacLaren personally: while her Greens running mate Scott Ryan was put second, MacLaren was placed behind all major party candidates (since MacLaren was elected anyway, the real impact of his votes was to help elect the Liberals’ Phil Edman ahead of Labor’s Fiona Henderson).

The Herald page linked to above also profiles Christian Democratic Party candidate Henri Chew, and informs us a candidates’ forum will be held at 7:30pm on Wednesday, November 25 (three days before the by-election) at Melville Senior High School’s performing arts hall. There are ads in the paper for Hsien Harper on page one and Peter Tinley on page three, scans of which appear below.

fremherald061109harperad

fremherald061109tinleyad

Friday, October 30

fremherald301009The hugely eventful comments thread for this post has made headlines, providing source material for the front page lead story in this weekend’s Fremantle Herald (the Georgatos letter referred to at the end of the scanned article is an edited version of this comment). At issue is the manner in which Hsien Harper was installed as Greens candidate at the expense of Gerry Georgatos, who was preselected earlier in the year when it was felt Alan Carpenter might join Jim McGinty in allowing for a by-election on the same day as the daylight saving referendum in May. Georgatos indicated he was in favour of nominations being reopened when Carpenter did eventually pull the plug, but “party insiders” cited by the Herald say he was “pushed into the decision”. Hsien Harper’s backers got the better of the ensuing preselection meeting, prompting opponents to complain it had been stacked. Georgatos subsequently nominated as an independent, and was promptly forced out of the party.

The sidelining of Georgatos is believed to have occurred largely at the instigation of Lynn MacLaren, member for the corresponding upper house region of South Metropolitan. As the Herald puts it: “About 20 unhappy supporters have since been venting spleens on the Poll Bludger website, with one saying ‘okay, like the others I am a Green – [Lynn] MacLaren and [a] few others knifed him’.” It has been said that Georgatos was felt not to have paid his (metaphorical) party dues; that the campaign might suffer from what one aggrieved comments thread contributor describes as his “outspoken qualities”; and that a candidate with Harper’s union background would in any case be a better bet in a traditional Labor electorate like Willagee.

fremherald301009tinleyadThe dispute also appears to have opened old wounds relating to Adele Carles’s recruitment as candidate for Fremantle at the 2008 election, with some in the party said to have unhappy memories of her as an independent rival to erstwhile upper house MP Jim Scott when he ran in Fremantle in 2005. The nomination of Carles came at the expense of Steve Walker (UPDATE: Or so the Herald reported, but it appears not – see below), described by the Herald as a “founding member” and “loyal warrior for the Greens in various campaigns”. Here too tactical motivations were thought to have been in play, with Carles’s professional background, conservative presentation and young family greatly assisting the party when it sought to win over the Liberal voters who ultimately decided the by-election in her favour (UPDATE 2: The Fremantle Herald confirms it erred in linking Walker to the Fremantle preselection in the next week’s edition – see the entry above).

The ABC’s Peter Kennedy writes about the by-election here, and discusses it here. I’ve also scanned in a full-page Labor ad from the Fremantle Herald – click on the thumbnail to the left for a full view.

UPDATE: Minutes later, Greens convenor Scott Ryan responds:

There are substantial errors of fact in the Herald article that are repeated on your site. Steve Walker did not attempt to pre-select for the State seat of Fremantle in 2008. Adele Carles was preselected unopposed. Steve had already left the party after unsuccessfully nominating for South Metropolitan, choosing to contest that as an independent. Any suggestion that Walker was dumped for Carles is entirely fictitious.

I am not aware of any discomfort over Adele running as an independent in the same election as Jim Scott. She ran on coastal issues and to the best of my memory swapped preferences 2-2. If there are some members who have “unhappy memories” of this, I can of course not rule it out – though it’s nothing I’ve ever heard expressed in years of service to the Fremantle Greens.

As for the remainder of the story, The Greens have not attempted to officially respond to the comments on the site and will not be drawn into debate on that level. Allegations contained within are simply preposterous and delusional.

I have personally maintained communication with Gerry and he maintains that the process was fair and appropriate, and that he was not pushed into re-opening nominations.

I realise that what is said can never be unsaid and perhaps the original posters simply had no idea how damaging their comments would be to Gerry’s campaign and to ours. I am disappointed that the Herald has resorted to cut-and-paste journalism without the fact-checking step in between.

Thursday, October 22

Nominations have closed and the ballot paper order has been drawn, with a modest field of four candidates. Intriguingly, one of the four is Gerry Georgatos, who earlier gave every indication of being relaxed about the re-opening of Greens nominations which ultimately saw him make way for Hsien Harper. The ballot paper order runs Henri Chew (Christian Democratic Party); Peter Tinley (Labor); Hsien Harper (Greens); Gerry Georgatos (Independent).

Wednesday, October 21

The Greens have preselected Hsien Harper, an organiser for the Community and Public Sector Union who ran in Willagee at the 2005 election. Harper was also the party’s candidate for Maylands at last year’s state election, and at the Murdoch by-election earlier in the year.

Sunday, October 18

The Liberals confirmed on Friday they would not be fielding a candidate. The Greens have issued a statement to clarify their reopening of preselection:

The Fremantle-Tangney regional group of The Greens met on Tuesday the 6th of October to discuss opening of nominations for Willagee, selecting a 2-week process for nomination and selection. This process will conclude at a meeting on Tuesday the 20th of October with the selection and announcement of a candidate. Prior to the Fremantle by-election, the Greens chose to not only pre-select a candidate for Fremantle but also for Willagee, expecting a small chance that Alan Carpenter may resign at the same time as Jim McGinty. As this did not occur we elected not to announce the candidate publicly, thinking that it may be seen as an arrogant, provocative or disrespectful move. The candidate selected at the time was Gerry Georgatos. Seven months have passed since the original process, and while there is no question of validity in the previous process, the political landscape has changed somewhat after the victory in Fremantle. Many new members joined in the surge of enthusiasm and the overall chemistry of the party feels a little different. With these issues in mind a proposal was put to the Fremantle-Tangney group to consider re-opening nominations. Gerry himself was joint author of this proposal, stating to the Fremantle Herald (Oct 3) “I feel that I should not hold [the branch] to a decision made seven months ago and would rather ask the members if they want more input. The Greens and I do business differently to the [other] political brands – it’s got to be participatory democracy or there isn’t democracy”. Gerry intends to nominate again as part of the new process.

Tuesday, October 13

Chalpat Sonti of WAtoday reports November 28 has been set by Speaker Grant Woodhams as the date for the by-election (hat tip: Frank Calabrese).

Monday, October 12

The ABC TV news reports, from sources unnamed, that the by-election is believed likely to be held on November 28.

Saturday, October 10

The Fremantle Herald reports Greens state convenor Scott Ryan saying the party will “open up the preselection process again”, despite having preselected “university guild manager Gerry Georgatos” in February when it was thought Carpenter might head for the exit to allow for a by-election on the same day as the daylight saving referendum.

Wednesday, October 7

LATE: Paul Lampathakis of the Sunday Times reports Peter Tinley has been unanimously preselected by Labor’s 16-member administration committee.

EARLY: The ABC reports there are five candidates for Labor preselection: the aforementioned Tinley and Hume, “Labor branch officials” Tony Toledo and Greg Wilton, and Stephen Dawson, former chief-of-staff to Carpenter government Environment Minister David Templeman. Rewi Lyall in comments hears the latter has been endorsed by the party’s Left caucus. Contra the Fremantle Herald, David McEwan is not on the list.

Friday, October 2

The Fremantle Herald reports two further candidates for Labor preselection: Dave Hume, who made a quixotic run against Peter Tagliaferri for the Fremantle preselection and is currently a candidate for Hilton ward in the Fremantle council elections, and David McEwan, an “environmental lawyer involved in the campaign to stop the extension of Roe Highway through the Beeliar wetlands”.

Monday, September 28

Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports Dave Kelly has confirmed he will not be a candidate for preselection. That gives pole position to Peter Tinley, who it so happens lives in Beaconsfield – not in the electorate, but very close to it. Taylor further reports the Greens candidate is expected to be “lawyer and environmental campaigner Graeme McEwan”. CORRECTION: Had the wrong end of the handle here. McEwan is not a Green; Taylor does not say exactly what he is, but I’m presuming he’s a Liberal (although I would have thought it unlikely they would field a candidate).

Sunday, September 27

A report by Paul Lampathakis of the Sunday Times suggests I may have spoken too soon in anointing Dave Kelly as the likely Labor candidate: Peter Tinley, the former SAS officer and Iraq war veteran who unsuccessfully contested Stirling at the 2007 federal election, has confirmed he will nominate, and is the only potential candidate listed in the article. Labor state secretary Simon Mead is quoted saying the preselection will be conducted “within ten days”. The Lampathakis article quotes unnamed Labor figures lambasting Carpenter for not timing his departure to allow for the poll to be held concurrently with the Fremantle by-election and daylight saving referendum on May 16; relatedly, Rebecca Carmody writes in the Sunday Times that Alannah MacTiernan should “do the right thing” and go now so that the Willagee by-election can coincide with one for Armadale.

Friday, September 25

Former WA Premier Alan Carpenter has just announced on the ABC’s Stateline program that he will resign from parliament next Friday. This will initiate a by-election in his safe Labor seat of Willagee, located just down the road from the Poll Bludger’s humble abode in Fremantle. Likely Labor candidate: Dave Kelly, state secretary of the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union.

For non-local observers excited by the prospect of a by-election in the seat neighbouring Fremantle, I have assembled a few stats for cold shower purposes. Unfortunately, the census figures are based on boundaries from before the one-vote one-value redistribution – Fremantle’s would still be pretty accurate, but Willagee would have gotten a bit wealthier. “MFY” stands for median family income.

  WILLAGEE FREMANTLE
ALP 2008 51.7% 38.7%
LIB 2008 30.9% 30.2%
GRN 2008 17.4% 27.6%
ALP 2005 47.9% 43.8%
LIB 2005 25.1% 26.8%
GRN 2005 9.0% 17.1%
Professionals 17.7% 29.2%
MFY $1,137 $1,313
Mortgages 35.0% 26.9%
Family households 65.5% 56.9%
Public housing 33.6% 19.6%

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

885 comments on “Willagee by-election: November 28”

Comments Page 1 of 18
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  4. Frank, the Greens will run. With them the main opposition in the by-election, they are likely to get more coverage then a regular election. This is also a chance to see Adele Charles in action.

    Thats how I would play it anyway.

  5. [Frank, the Greens will run. With them the main opposition in the by-election, they are likely to get more coverage then a regular election. This is also a chance to see Adele Charles in action.

    Thats how I would play it anyway.]

    And if the Libs don’t run and it’s a narrow ALP Victory it will prove once and for all that there is a Greens/Liberal alliance – and they can’t cry that Willage is no longer ALP heartland – it is the second safest ALP seat in the state. 🙂

  7. [Dave Kelly = good candidate. Watch that 17% margin get slashed though, Frank.]

    Yes, but there won’t be a new playmate for Adele though 🙂

  11. “And if the Libs don’t run and it’s a narrow ALP Victory it will prove once and for all that there is a Greens/Liberal alliance”

    Frank, your insane if you actually believe this.
    1. The Libs wont run because its a by-election. Not to help the Greens but because it doesn’t help them.
    2. If Lib voters vote Green, it just means that they hate the ALP more then they hate the Greens.

    When the ALP dont run in by-elections, and there is a narrow Lib win, does that make it a Green/ALP alliance? Of course it doesn’t.

    SNIP: Unparliamentary language deleted – The Management.

  12. Frank is not Kelly one of the reasons the ALP is in opposition now,when the hell are the ALP power brokers in WA going to learn about putting union hacks into parliament.
    Given the fact that WA is not that in love with unions,why are the ALP and the behind the scenes faction leaders so bloody stupid,why not let the local members put up their own candidate,not some union hack who has never done a days work in his life

  14. [Frank is not Kelly one of the reasons the ALP is in opposition now,when the hell are the ALP power brokers in WA going to learn about putting union hacks into parliament.
    Given the fact that WA is not that in love with unions,why are the ALP and the behind the scenes faction leaders so bloody stupid,why not let the local members put up their own candidate,not some union hack who has never done a days work in his life]

    John,

    If you listen to Carps audio I just posted you you hear him say the ALP was originally borne out of the Union Movement – so it is perfectly acceptable for someone from the union movement to be pre-selected.

  16. John Ryan @ 12. Your description of Dave Kelly as a union hack who has never done a day’s work in his life is way wrong. The LHMU represents many of the lowest-paid of WA’s workers, and as its Secretary, Kelly has overseen an impressive increase in its membership at a time when -so the MSM regularly trumpets- union representation is falling. He is smart, well-spoken, a good media performer and tireless in his efforts to improve pay and conditions for his union’s members.

    The tone of your post @ 12 strongly suggests, John, that you have never been a union member, much less worked in a union office. You have not a clue about what work is done in those places. Your comments on Dave Kelly are therefore ill-informed regurgitations of the Coalition/MSM talking points about unions and unionism, and add nothing to the debate.

  17. Clearly Frank is worried here, I have no idea why the ALP’s ex leader is leaving the sinking ship but he may feel that its the time to leave the sinking ship.
    Some of you who are obsessed may have seen my ‘Nuclear posts’ last night on a different topic. For those who didn’t I basically ran a few posts saying that the ALP would suffer badly from rumours around the placement of Martin Ferguson inspired Nuclear Reactors around various capital cities. Now these are just rumours, but I’ll share their motivation. They were inspired directly by Frank’s nonsense of the Liberal Green conspiracy theory. Well Frank here we go,.
    “Greens candidate for the seat of Willagee “insert name of next member of WA pairliament” today called on the WA government to categorically rule out the placement of a Nuclear reactor in the Perth/Freemantle region.”

  18. Re the possibilities of a change, we need to look at the role of the Minors in this election and wheter there are any high profile lib independant is the area. It will however be interesting and do any of you WA people know do the Freemantle Willagee state seats cover the same Federal seat, this could create another “melbourne”.

  19. Ozymandias,I have been a union member all my working life,from my days as an apprentice Car and Wagon builder in Midland Workshops,under the guidance of the late Jack Marks.
    I was a member of the CMFEU untill I retired to look after my late wife,I was a rep on Mt Newman for the old BWIU,while I worked there,I am of the opinon that the branch members should be able to elect the people that want not some union offical.
    God knows I read the Australian I don,t believe much of whats in it, but The Worst to my mind has not improved,as I want to read about more that some stupid AFL players big toe I watch TV ABC, SBS and Pay, and read books and internet,I still do not resile from what I said above, sorry if you disagree,but from your assumptions you are dead wrong about me.

  24. Frank at 5:

    [ And if the Libs don’t run and it’s a narrow ALP Victory it will prove once and for all that there is a Greens/Liberal alliance – and they can’t cry that Willage is no longer ALP heartland – it is the second safest ALP seat in the state. 🙂 ]

    Jeez, not this again. There. Is. No. Alliance. Get over it.

    Willagee will probably stay Labor – then again, I said that about Fremantle too. The Greens got 28% at Hilton and 20% at East Hami Hill last time, so should do well there (probably win the Hilton booth), and maybe Coolbellup (near Murdoch uni, plenty of students live there); Labor will clean up in the south and central bits. Greens may also do OK in the northern bits that go for the Liberals (part of Alfred Cove / Melville I think?) – Carles did well in the nearby bits of Fremantle. I’d tip a margin between 5% and 10% for Labor – sending 2008 Liberal votes 80% to Green and 20% to Labor gives a 7.8% margin, which sounds about right.

    Might be a Melville councillor or two trying their luck as an conservative independent, too. Katherine Jackson got a few % in Alfred Cove’s very weird contest in 2005.

  25. Oh, and one more thing I just thought of: Roe Hwy stage 8 could well be an issue. The Liberals have exhumed that one, and want to extend the Roe from the freeway to Stock Rd in Hami Hill – most of that route is in Willagee. The road’s planned to run through the small gap between Bibra Lake and North Lake, so there’s something the Greens / various annoyed locals will be running with.

  26. [Oh, and one more thing I just thought of: Roe Hwy stage 8 could well be an issue. The Liberals have exhumed that one, and want to extend the Roe from the freeway to Stock Rd in Hami Hill – most of that route is in Willagee. The road’s planned to run through the small gap between Bibra Lake and North Lake, so there’s something the Greens / various annoyed locals will be running with.]

    Well Labor is against Roe 8 as well, so expect them to run on it as well, and they can rightly say that as a major party, they have more sway on the issue than the minor parties.

  27. Was against it, Frank. They used to be in favour of extending trading hours not so long ago, too… dunno what happened to that. Add in the fun and games Ripper had with McGowan and Wyatt over uranium last week, and it’s hard to see what they stand for – they need to sort that out damn quick if they want to win the next election.

    Considering that, Labor’s man will need Alannah MacTiernan standing behind him if he makes Roe 8 an issue, as she was the minister responsible for canning it. She’s worth an extra few % for Labor… then again, she might not feel like taking that on in her last few months in state parliament. Any publicity’s good publicity though, I guess.

    By the way, here’s a massive sook Dennis Jensen threw about that road a few months before the last federal election. Glen, can your mob do something about that twit? He seems to survive losing his pre-selection quite well… time to pull out the big guns.

    And here’s a maybe-uncomfortable parallel from Victoria… Burwood state by-election, 1999. Are the Liberals definitely not running at this by-election? I just read the seat profile linked in the OP, and apparently the ALP vs Lib margin in 1996 (when the seat was created) was only 2.3%. 1996 was a high water mark for the Liberals (only time they ever won a majority under the old gerrymandered system), so they’d need a high-profile candidate if they wanted to give it a shake, but then again… who the hell is Bob Stensholt?

  28. [Are the Liberals definitely not running at this by-election? ]

    According to Carps new boss at Notre Dame whom I was speaking to on Twitter – he reckons the Libs won’t run a candidate, and the Greens will benefit but Labor will retain the seat 🙂

  30. [I just read the seat profile linked in the OP, and apparently the ALP vs Lib margin in 1996 (when the seat was created) was only 2.3%.]

    As I probably should have pointed out in that profile, Willagee then extended eastwards into Winthrop and Booragoon areas that now help make life comfortable for Christian Porter in Bateman.

  31. I wonder if Dave Kelly was advised not to run in response to the Fremantle fiasco – though I’ll bet some smartarse will declare Tinley not to be local enough, despite living on the Border, sort of like how Jaye Radisch lived in nearby Woodbridge (West Midland for us old timers) even though she was the member for Swan Hills, which was on the border.

  35. [Harry Phillips obviously hasn’t perused the demographics. I say a rabble rousing Independent would have more of a chance.]

    Oh I agree – Fremantle and Willagee are poles apart – despite the fact that they are neighbouring electorates.

  42. From that vid:

    [ inner metropolitan seats such as Willagee have recorded a higher Green vote during recent state and federal elections ]

    I like the way they put that over half a dozen stock shots of central Freo and nowhere else. It’s the very un-telegenic Hilton they want… yes it’s bleak fibro Homeswest-ville, yes they vote Green there too. I think the only shot of Willagee in the whole feature was Carpenter turning up to vote at Cooby Primary. Lift yer game, ABC.

  43. [I like the way they put that over half a dozen stock shots of central Freo and nowhere else. It’s the very un-telegenic Hilton they want… yes it’s bleak fibro Homeswest-ville, yes they vote Green there too. I think the only shot of Willagee in the whole feature was Carpenter turning up to vote at Cooby Primary. Lift yer game, ABC.]

    Well “Their ABC” want to give the impression that the Greens Heartland is yuppiefied areas like Freo 🙂 Hilton is bogannsville – the only greens are those on Newstart 🙂

  44. [“And if the Libs don’t run and it’s a narrow ALP Victory it will prove once and for all that there is a Greens/Liberal alliance”]

    Pretty silly statement. By that definition there is a Greens/Labor alliance in Bradfield.

  45. It’s mostly unrelated, but the local council elections are in a few weeks time. I’ll be watching Fremantle to see how Brad Pettitt does… it’s all non-partisan, but he’s the greenish candidate for mayor (currently a councillor – I don’t think Tagliaferri is re-nominating, so he’s got a good chance). That’ll probably be just as good a form guide for the Greens as the Willagee by-election.

    By the way, Sam Wainwright (who ran in thaaaat by-election and didn’t totally disgrace himself) is running for council too – Hilton ward (within Willagee). There’s an article here all about it and related stuff, including the unlikely thought that three greenish mayor candidates (so there’s more than one, then) could get 74% of the vote and still lose, thanks to FPP voting. Warning, it is the Green Left Weekly, so do take with a pinch of salt.

    Also, Andrew Sullivan was apparently elected unopposed in South ward, whatever that means. Might be a lack of other candidates, might be people like his work too much to run against him… if the latter, Fran Logan has a job for a while whether he likes it or not. Labor will win a by-election in Willagee, but they surely don’t want one in Cockburn.

  46. I’m not paying much attention to the local government election, which is helpful because it means my perspective is much the same as that of the average voter for a change. I think Pettitt will win easily, simply because his campaign is about ten times more visible than anybody else’s. Tagliaferri is indeed not running.

  47. [I’m not paying much attention to the local government election, which is helpful because it means my perspective is much the same as that of the average voter for a change. I think Pettitt will win easily, simply because his campaign is about ten times more visible than anybody else’s. Tagliaferri is indeed not running.]

    On a somewhat related note, we just got in the mail from our local liberal member Frank Alban a letter pointing out what he’s done in the last year, plus a 3 page glossy brochure (which it points out was NOT printed at taxpayers expense) extolling the last 12 months of the Barnett Govt.

    I wonder if the timing is due to this By-election and whether Liberal Upper House MP’s in non liberal seats are also posting this stuff out ?

  50. Version for the Youtube-impaired here:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/01/2702330.htm

    [ Ms Watson says legislation passed in 2006 means any party with five or more members should be given official party status and be resourced accordingly. ]

    That word ‘should’ there is gonna be the killer – it’s lawyer time. There’s gonna be a clause somewhere to do with discretionary powers of the premier that’s probably never been tested in court (because, hey, how often would the law about party status end up in court?). Gonna be nasty. Interesting to see Ripper sticking up for the Greens, considering they’re about to fight them in Willagee.

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