Newspoll: ??-??

Following last week’s surprising and almost certainly rogue Newspoll result, The Australian sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. However, when the results were published yesterday, all that was offered was attitudinal results on asylum seekers – although breakdowns by party support made clear that voting intention had also been ascertained. This sent Gary Morgan on the offensive:

Newspoll should have conducted another poll as soon as possible when they saw the dramatic change in their results – and if different, released the data to correct the misconceptions caused by their “rogue” poll … A statistical analysis of the data reported on Australians’ attitudes to “boat people” issues – specifically the breakdown by “Political support” – suggests the ALP vote in that poll was very strong. The percentage supporting each political party clearly should have been released. Polls and their publishers should not seek to set the agenda by selectively releasing polling data. Polls and their publishers are powerful but with that power comes responsibility.

Queried by Andrew Crook of Crikey, The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell explained that “even Crikey” should be able to understand that a non-fortnightly set of voting intention figures would cause a disturbance in the force. Mitchell further invoked a Beatles-and-the-Stones style arrangement between Newspoll and Nielsen in which they have agreed not to step on each other’s releases. Yet just one month ago, on the same day that Nielsen produced its regular monthly poll, The Australian published a “special Newspoll survey” on the Liberal leadership in between its regular fortnightly polls, and was not in the least bit shy about informing us that the sample produced the same 58-42 split in favour of Labor as recorded the previous week. In fairness, it should be noted that Crikey “understands that on Sunday morning, Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian”.

My own concern with all this is that I was hoping for a new poll result to hang my regular set of electoral updates off, and didn’t get one. Here they are:

• The saga surrounding the YouTube Downfall parody aimed at Mitchell MP Alex Hawke over his feud with former Right ally and state upper house MP David Clarke has lifted a rock on preselection manoeuvres for safe Liberal state seats. Hawke-Hitler is portrayed in the video castigating himself for having backed Hills Shire councillor Andrew Jefferies to depose incumbent Wayne Merton in Baulkham Hills. The Clarke forces have been hoping the seat might instead go to Damien Tudehope, who has a not inconsiderable public profile as spokesman for the NSW Family Association – and whose son Thomas has just resigned as Malcolm Turnbull’s media adviser after being linked to the aforesaid YouTube video. The infamous episode where 40 Clarke supporters showed up at a Young Liberal branch meeting at Hawke’s office, prompting Hawke’s staff to call the police, reportedly occurred as part of efforts to secure Baulkham Hills for Tudehope. In Castle Hill, Clarke faction operative Dominic Perrottet (whose brother Charles has just resigned as Clarke’s chief-of-staff after he too was linked to the YouTube video) has been plotting to depose incumbent Michael Richardson. On the other side of the pendulum, Hawke is apparently backing another ally, state Young Liberals president Scott Farlow, for the seat of Drummoyne (which Labor’s Angela D’Amore holds by a margin of 7.6 per cent), while Clarke man Kevin Conolly hopes to again contest Riverstone, where he ran against Labor’s John Aquilina in 2007.

• Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reveals the identity of the abortive Right challenger to Philip Ruddock in Berowra: Richard Quinn, a Hunters Hill councillor. A Ruddock supporter specifically identifies Quinn’s backers as “the Taliban faction”, meaning the forces associated with David Clarke. Quinn has “now expressed interest in Bennelong”, which would put him up against former tennis player and unsuccessful Bradfield preselection aspirant John Alexander, plus another previously unheralded entrant in “businessman Mark Chan”.

• Lisa Carty of the Sydney Morning Herald explains Labor’s recent western Sydney preselection shenanigans in terms of a deal in which the Right will retain its hold on Fowler following Julia Irwin’s retirement at the next election, despite the numbers in local branches being finely poised between the two factions. The Right’s favoured candidate for Fowler is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, who was defeated by Louise Markus when he ran in Greenway at the 2004 election. In return for not pursuing a claim in Fowler, the Left will be awarded Werriwa at the expense of Right incumbent Chris Hayes. However, state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite is quoted in the article saying there is “no deal to shift (Hayes) to Macarthur”. That hasn’t stopped an avalanche of reports about whether Werriwa will go to Reid MP Laurie Ferguson, as proposed by Julia Gillard and the soft Left, or Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union organiser Damien Ogden, the candidate of Anthony Albanese and the hard Left.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports claims Labor internal polling of 650 voters in Robertson shows Belinda Neal set to be dumped by a swing of “about 20 per cent”, although this has naturally been denied by state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite. The report also quotes Labor sources suggesting recent talk of a run for the premiership by her husband John Della Bosca has been raised for use as a “bargaining chip” to protect Neal’s position.

• The Queensland Liberal National Party has preselected Hajnal Ban, Logan councillor, Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and recipient of an eye-watering Russian surgical procedure to lengthen her legs, as its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. Unsuccessful candidates included Cameron Thompson, the former Liberal member for
Blair (who was presumably handicapped by an understanding that the seat was the domain of the Nationals), and Gold Coast councillor and former children’s television presenter Bob La Castra.

• Former Senator, one-time Democrats leader and blogosphere identity Andrew Bartlett will run for the Greens at the federal election in Brisbane, which Labor’s Arch Bevis holds with a diminished post-redistribution margin against the LNP of 3.8 per cent. Antony Green explains why he won’t win.

• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports Labor preselection nominations for Canning, Cowan and Swan will close on December 1, and candidates will be chosen by mid-December.

• The Macquarie Street blog of Poll Bludger regular Oz informs us that NSW upper house MP Gordon Moyes, long estranged from the Christian Democratic Party from which he was elected, has announced he is joining Family First.

• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reports that Anna Bligh will respond to the state’s review on accountability by moving to impose a $1000 cap on political donations unless the federal government does likewise before July 2010, as well as imposing a ban on “success fees” to lobbyists.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,656 comments on “Newspoll: ??-??”

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  4. Well it looks like I agree with the ALP government’s decision on books, and many of the ALPers on this sight do not. What a reversal! These reforms would squeeze out the few independent retailers left, further concentrating the market with the big chains. Small time publishers, Australian authors and Australia’s cultural products would also have been totally done over. The Big Chains bulk buy stock pulp fiction crud like Dan Brown and would leave the consumer with less choice since Independent retailers would be unable to compete. I commend the government for putting the interests of Australian authors, small time retailers and the consumer before that of big business!

  5. THM

    We’re all just going to buy all our books from Amazon, the Book Depository (great name!) and their ilk. The Australian publishers will still die off. The people will win. And that’s before everyone starts buying ebooks on Kindle etc (personally I hate the idea of that and will never do it).

  8. THM

    Have you got a Kindle? They say they’re not a computer screen and are just like print. I haven’t tried one. They might be good when you go on a long holiday or for people who carry lots of non-fiction books to study etc, but I love the actual book.

  11. GB@1198:

    [You can’t get it more emphatic than this. Gillard re the OV.]

    Thanks for that!

    Gillard is not likely to say something she can’t back up. She’s one smart lady.

    What does she know that we don’t?

  14. No OV on 9 News Vera but 7 has thier man over their (Chris Reason I think) and they reported the letter given to the AS. Even had Turnbull saying, “Why don’t you just invite them all over?” But of course no suggestions as to what the government could do.

  17. TH@1207:

    [The Book Depository is my favourite. Very good prices, great range and NO postage charge. ]

    Wow! I’ve put it in my tool bar, that beats Amazon hands down. Thanks a lot. And the pound is headed for the basement, which makes it even better.

  19. Diogenes
    [ Have you got a Kindle? ]
    I’d never even heard of a kindle before – even as a young bloke I find it impossible to keep up with all the new gadgets and technological advances.

  20. Can anyone explain to me why Oceanic Viking is still in Indonesia?
    No matter how you look at it, the government badly mishandled the situation. It appears too hard to the hard left, and too soft to approximately half the nation. Now I understand some among the 78 are legitimate refugees. However, the asylum seekers essentially are holding the government to ransom. Why can this be tolerated, and why is negotiation still in process? In fact, why is there a negotiation to begin with? The asylum seekers entered Australian territory, they ought to follow whatever procedure the current law specifies. If a plane lands and someone refuses to leave the aircraft, he/she would be forcefully removed. What is different here?
    Australia is taking in refugees in fulfillment of its international obligation. However, the OV saga really cannot be viewed as anything else but a demonstration of the weakness in border protection. What kind of message are we sending out? That arriving in Australia by whatever means and you will be looked after? There are millions of refugees around the world, it is clearly is impossible for Australia to accept all of them, however much we might want to morally.
    Some would say that this is a non-issue because some 100000 people migrates annually, but it is not about the absolute number, it is about the extent to which the government will commit to prevent illegal human trafficking. Unfortunately the government failed the test abysmally.

  21. [In the attic with Jasper was it Finns.]

    Vera, there is definitely a Tele movie in the story of Sabi.

    Apparently, he wasnt “lost”. He hot involved with some floozy and ended up with a bunch of Afghan AS. As he spoke perfect English and trained by the diggers, so he ended up like Alex, their leader and spokeperson.

    They sailed down to Indonesia and hitched up with the people smuggler and was picked up near Ashmore Reef and sent to CI Ramada. He wrote a letter personally to Therese when he heard there was Jasper. The rest, as they say, is history. :kiss:

  22. THM@1219:

    I’ve not seen one either, but I’m told the general effect is pretty much like an ordinary book. They get better all the time, as is normal with the computer industry.

    You don’t have to have backlighting (is there any? Not sure, probably, so you can read under the covers in bed) but the screen is said to be fantastic to read, even in full sunlight.

  23. don,

    “The thought police are even now on your trail”.

    They’ll just have to stand in line. They’re not asylum seekers you know.

  25. Robot@1220:

    [Unfortunately the government failed the test abysmally.]

    Robot, there is no test.

    Most of Oz could not care less. It is only political tragics like those who haunt this site who care two shakes of a lambs tail. To everyone else it is non-news.

    I agree with almost everything you say. But it is of importance only to the government, and to us, and to the opposition as a leverage point.

    Everybody else is thinking about where they will spend the christmas holidays.

    It is a non-issue.

  26. Just to clarify in relation to the chap who tried to chop his arm off I spoke about last night. He doesn’t have any of those highly unusual disorders others were speculating about. This chap is a refugee who was exposed to some pretty grotesque trauma in his home country. He has post traumatic stress disorder and such was his anguish about his son and family caught in their home country, he dissociated and cut his arm. I think it was both a way of switching extreme psychological distress to physical (not uncommon in PTSD or borderline personality disorder) as well as being symbolic of his helplessness in the face of his son and family’s plight.
    Speaking as a bleeding heart, leftie latte and chardonnay sipping hippie, might I just say that if those reports of the OV mob throwing rejection notes written on the back of formal offers of generosity from the Australian Government overboard, are true, there is something very odd going on here. I said some time ago, about a week into the stand off that it had me suspicious, that they were behaving like they were being coached.

  28. The Evil Empire strikes or Obi sold out again.

    [President Obama will give an interview to Fox News’ Major Garrett, Drudge reports.

    The interview will take place in China next week and comes just one day after it was reported that Obama Communications Director Anita Dunn — the so-called general in the administration’s war against Fox News — will be stepping down.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/11/obama-to-give-interview-t_n_354457.html

  29. HSO@126:

    [I said some time ago, about a week into the stand off that it had me suspicious, that they were behaving like they were being coached.]

    I think you are right.

    But there are things going on with Kev and Julia and Stephen and the OV that will come to light shortly, I feel.

    That triumvirate doesn’t get things wrong very often, and especially when they are all singing from the same song sheet, and in three part harmony.

    This reminds me of the news vacuum that preceded the resolution of the Godwin Grech affair.

    The Government (still gives me a thrill to say that!) showed that the HM loyal opposition was talking through their fundamental orifice.

  30. [What ever happened to Blees book?]

    Greenie I’ve still got it. If you can find someone who wants it let me know. It is a well travelled book. It has been to Japan recently. 🙂

  32. […even as a young bloke I find it impossible to keep up with all the new gadgets and technological advances.]

    Sorry THM not a dig at you.

    Why does the youth of today think they are the tech savvy crew?

    I have been playing with the intertubes for 20 years. I have been playing with bleedin’ edge tech stuff for 35 years.

    Yet the meeja hype is that young uns know it all. Sheeesh.

  36. [I said some time ago, about a week into the stand off that it had me suspicious, that they were behaving like they were being coached.]

    Of course they’re being coached. Everyone involved except the Australian government wants them to stay on the boat, and are presumably telling them so. The Indonesians don’t want them to come ashore, the smugglers want them to stay on the boat, and the News Ltd journalists on the site are telling them to hold out so that they can squeeze more anti-Rudd stories out of this.

  38. [ Why does the youth of today think they are the tech savvy crew? ]
    I suppose on the whole, young people do tend to be more tech savvy than older people but I guess we are both exceptions to that rule.
    I think the theory or stereotype goes that people get set in their ways – older people not understanding rap, techno, etc. When I’m old there will probably be some pretty sci-fi like technologies about (there are already, when you come to think of it) that I will gawke at. The next generation in turn will take this as evidnece that I am stuck in the 2010’s – So Old-School!

  39. Vera, I like the bit at the end:

    [“Now we are working with AQIS (Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service) and others to ensure Sabi’s eventual return to Australia. I fear AQIS might be the greatest challenge,” Mr Rudd said.]

    Even Kev wouldn’t dare mess with the Quarantine people!

  40. Thanks, Don. I agree that when Julia et al. say with confidence that something or other is going to happen, I’m inclined to believe them. Obviously, Kevin isn’t so bothered by the situation that he stopped his trip to the troops in Afghanistan and to India. So much for the control freak who quite happily leaves Julia in charge and other Ministers to get on with whatever challenges confront them.

  41. Their ABC 7pm news reporter held up “dropped letter” from the AS on OV. It looked very neatly typed and printed letter to me.

    Hmmmm, where did they got the computer & printer from. I would have thought the letter would have been written in blood.

  44. Vera, I think a lot of people besides me would cheer mightily if that were to happen.

    I’ve lost patience with that crowd. Enough is enough.

    They are behaving like they have some kind of right. It’s not a right, it’s a privilege to come to Oz, and it’s time they learned that.

  45. [Their ABC 7pm news reporter held up “dropped letter” from the AS on OV. It looked very neatly typed and printed letter to me. ]

    What’s the bet their supporters translated it into english and had copies made for the meeja pack onshore ?

    Oh and that girl who challenged rudd will be reporting from the refugee camp in Indonesia on Nein News tonight.

  49. don, me to I’ve never been very good in the patience dept but Kev is one cool cucumber and we hope he will win in the battle of wills/wits? .. whatever 🙂

  50. HSO – you are one brave woman – I just about pass out reading about that poor bloke and the stuff that Dio wrote. They don’t even hve to sedate me before an op. I see the Dr and boing… I’m out cold.

    I’m with you re the ‘coaching’ bit. Seems that Ch7 reporter and limitednoos are getting all the info they want by mobile connection to the boat and probably sending info back to the AS. Kev should put a barrier around the boat and get rid of the mobiles.

    Sharman Stone was repulsive about it on radio today.

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