Newspoll: 56-44

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor bouncing from last fortnight’s 52-48 quirk to 56-44. Interesting to note that Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings were unaffected by the upheaval: while the two-party rating went from 59-41 to 52-48 to 56-44, preferred prime minister went from 65-19 to 63-19 to 63-22. More to follow. Also:

• Essential Research‘s two-party figure has lurched from 59-41 to 55-45, the lowest lead for Labor in its 18 months of operation. These figures combine two weeks of polling, suggesting a particularly sharp drop was recorded in the most recent survey. Further questions in the survey focus on issues of national importance, party best able to handle various economic issues (Coalition leads Labor on “government debt” by 24 points), importance of a national broadband network (high) and who should run it (the feds or failing that Telstra), which kinds of organisations are the most influential (media and the banks) and whether emissions trading scheme legislation should be delayed until after Copenhagen (slight lean to yes).

• Full results from Saturday’s Newspoll survey of marginal Queensland seats here. Labor holds remarkably consistent 3 to 4 per cent leads across all of them, including three they hold, two they don’t and one (Dickson) which the redistribution has changed from Liberal to notional Labor.

• The Greens have published a Galaxy survey on attitudes to climate change, the dubiousness of which is explored by Andrew Norton.

• Kirsty Needham of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Werriwa MP Chris Hayes has received support from the state secretaries of the Right faction Transport Workers Union and Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. A deal at federal level gives Werriwa to the Left in exchange for a clear run for the Right in Fowler, leaving Hayes to contest marginal Macarthur.

• Alex Easton of the Northern Star names Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout as a potential Liberal candidate for (federal) Richmond.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,811 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  2. Astrobleme,

    Final post, just because you have been so patient.

    True, Green has an alternative position on GW. The trouble is, it is a small party, and its position matters very little. If the Greens sticks to their position and votes down the CPRS, it is still not going to achieve its target. In fact, they are further away from their target. For some of its policy to have some chance of being Australian government policy, it has to negotiate and compromise with either Labor or Liberal. I will leave you to decide which of these party are easier to deal with from Greens’ perspective.

    The importance of Green to Labor is unlikely to change. It needs Greens’ support now, and it will probably need Greens’ support post 2012. I see no clear reason why you will get more water by waiting. Besides, the three year period is a “grace” period for the country to get ready to the cut. If the CPRS becomes law in 2011 with say a 10% target, the implementation will be pushed further back. Again, there is little or no prospect of Labor agreeing to a firm 25% target.

  4. [they approve of Rudd’s tough-but-humane line.]

    Just confirming that. So we don’t have to have a harder policy AS policy after all.

    [Only a leak of voters who think he’s not being enough like Howard. So now we will see a harder line. Vox populi, vox dei.]

  5. [Vera, it will be a great pleasure to see the Libs back in the cesspit where they belong tomorrow. And such immaculate timing – tomorrow the CPRS bill comes back to the Senate.]

    I’m not confident that the Senate will pass the CPRS bill – too many sceptics and fruit loops within the Liberal senate ranks!

  6. [Vera, I saw Reilly’s BS. That bloke’s a disgrace.]

    What do you expect from a man who does a political joke segment on Sunrise?

    Paul Bongiorno is probably the only decent TV political correspondent left, and Karen Middleton on SBS too is always pretty balanced!
    Mark Riley is a tool, Oakes is now spouting Liberal Party propoganda, and the less said about the ABC, the better!

  8. Grog:

    [I prefer the old 70s style “Grech affair”

    Affairs are much better than stupid gates.]

    Yes, the Grech Affair does sound more grave. Though it wasn’t just Grech; Turnbull and Erica Betz were also central players. Rather than the Grech Affair, how about the Liberal Affair sound?

    Frank:

    [And ties in perfectly with the dismissal video I posted on the previous thread.

    That event cemented me as a 10 yr old to vote Labor, and I have since 1983.]

    Fair enough. Maintain the rage!

    WorkChoices was the issue that made me an anti-Liberal voter.

  9. OO – “the trend confirms a fall in two-party preferred support”

    What 52/48? I can’t remember a 52/48. Can anyone remember a 52/48? (which would be rise in 2PP for Labor)

    Or is the Australian now taking notice of OTHER pollsters to promote their partisanship?

    Ha – what a bunch of tossers.

  10. So the three wise polls all say the same thing

    See Nothing Morgan
    Hear Nothing Neison
    Say Nothing Newspoll

    p.s why is recovering one’s password for this site so friken longwinded! I am sure i was going to write the greatest response to a poll but since re looging to so long i have forgotten!

    P.S.S Yes i want to see Senator Feeley use the clever words from Psehpos!

  11. The Prime Minister is still riding high with 63 per cent support on the question of who would make the better PM, unchanged from the previous Newspoll.

    But Malcolm Turnbull has clawed back support from uncommitted voters, rising from 19 per cent to 22 per cent on the better PM question.

    Oh no, watch out, Malcolm is making a comeback!

  13. Newspoll’s Martin O’Shannessy said the poll confirmed the trend picked up in the previous poll of a fall in two-party-preferred support for Labor since September.

    “The interesting thing about Malcolm is he is rebuilding back to the levels before UteGate,” he said.

    Nothing about the last one being a rogue poll or anything, no sirree

  14. [So we don’t have to have a harder policy AS policy after all.]

    Diog, let me repeat. Have faith in our Labor Govt to do the right things by the AS.

  15. Hmmm. I still think some of the problem in the HOR in particular is that the Opposition don’t accept they lost, and it’s only a matter of time till they are returned to their rightful place

  16. I should go and put this into Antony Green’s electoral calculator, would make nice reading for Pyne and Dutton, don’t ya think? 🙂

  17. There is a trend downwards if you take the last number of Newspolls and others. Newspolls were 57 58 58 59 52 56 and the other most recent polls hint at a falling tpp. but from very high levels, so maybe gravity would have had the same effect over time anyway.

  18. [Hmmm. I still think some of the problem in the HOR in particular is that the Opposition don’t accept they lost, and it’s only a matter of time till they are returned to their rightful place]

    Can anyone say 1975 ?

  19. [Hmmm. I still think some of the problem in the HOR in particular is that the Opposition don’t accept they lost, and it’s only a matter of time till they are returned to their rightful place]

    Perhaps there ARE some things,money cant buy.

  20. [Actually since fake gate Abertz has been rather quiet prehaps he is faking it.]

    He’s been rather quiet since “Utegate”, Minchin has taken over from him as Loony Liberal leader in the Senate.

  21. I’ve gotta admit I was a bit nervous about the Newspoll, which probably says more about my superstitious nature than anything else.

  24. [So now we will see a harder line. Vox populi, vox dei.]

    Quite so, and we are seeing it. SLs in boats are going to get fairly short shrift from now on, both from us and from our good friend and ally SBY. Possibly you are so blinded by Ruddophobia that you haven’t been observing.

  26. [Where’s Sloppy Joe? Has he decided that the less we see of him the better chance he has to become leader?]

    I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, he is a new Dad!
    :D:

  28. A little frivolity after the stressfull wait for newspoll.
    [Looking like a runaway winner in 2010, Rudd would be a fool to change his game.

    These ockerisms might even be entirely genuine, the product of a boy from the bush who made good in a state where for decades plain speaking was political death.

    If he were alive today, you could just imagine former Queensland premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s advice on the critics.

    “Don’t you worry about that, Kevin.”]
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/pms-ready-to-youse-it/story-e6frfhqf-1225798349789

  29. The day after a bad Newspoll for the Libs, one or more of them have a serious tantrum or meltdown in parliament! I’d be watching tomorrow LOL
    =D

  32. I noticed this afternoon how relaxed the government front bench looked – they have got an early hint of the Newspoll!
    Rudd had a stellar day, great speech in the morning!
    A pity that the frigging ABC spent more time on Turnball!

  37. Shall we predict tomorrow’s News Ltd headlines?

    HUGE BOOST IN TURNBALL’S POPULARITY!
    IT’S A ROGUE POLL THIS TIME(YES, REALLY).

  40. [How long before the Usual Suspects put out the conspiracy theory that Labor rigged the Newspoll? ;)]

    Where’s bob1234 ?

    (Just Saying) 🙂

  44. The MSM really have nowhere to go with this Newspoll. Either they have to acknowledge the last Newspoll was a rogue or Labor has made a remarkable comeback. Neither option will be particularly palatable for them.

  47. If they go with the comeback line then what factors could they use? 4 Corners? Rudd’s attack on CC sceptics? Some of the AS leaving the boat?

  49. Let me present a totally cynical but highly possible senario.

    Tomorrow Rudd will have step one in his inexorable progression towards a Double Dissolution completed.

    In three months time he will either: a. have a totally dejected opposition pass the legislation thereby baring their impotence and ineptitude for all the world to see, or, more likely, b. have his trigger in hand.

    In three months the Monsoons will be in full force, preventing even the hardiest or most foolish asylum seekers chancing their arm.

    Rudd calls a double dissolution election, keeps the left and centre on side with his stronger climate change credentials, and scoops a good slice of the right, elderly, redneck and racist constituency with his perceived toughness and effectiveness in keeping the black foreign devils out (see no boats in three months, all due to our tough stance).

    Now come on, it’s possible, he is a politician after all, and Australia has sufficient stupid racists per square kilometer (racism and stupidity are synonymous, really) to make it a highly attractive proposition.

  50. I notice they mention Rudd’s media sweep in the OO’s Newspoll report. Geez Rudd’s persuasive. Oh, hang on, this is the same bloke they criticise for being boring and long winded.

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