Newspoll: 56-44

Courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble comes the first heavy duty opinion poll of the Tony Abbott era. The two-party vote shows little change, with Labor’s lead down from 57-43 to 56-44. However, it seems rounding might have smoothed the result out a little: the Coalition is up three points on the primary vote to 38 per cent (the Liberals on 34 per cent have swallowed a point from the Nationals) while Labor is steady on 43 per cent. No approval ratings on Abbott were sought, but his 60-23 deficit on preferred prime minister compares with 65-14 against for Turnbull last week and 63-22 a fortnight previous. The poll offers further evidence that the popular notion that Abbott has a particular problem with women voters is a load of hooey.

UPDATE: Essential Research: 58-42, unchanged on last week. 21 per cent of respondents say the Abbott ascendancy makes them more likely to vote Liberal; 33 per cent say less. Lots of questions on leadership perceptions, almost all of it more favourable to Rudd than Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,136 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. That SMH article is a bit of a misrepresentation of what Hewson actually said.

    He said (paraphrasing) the frontbench could be effective if the only goal was to niggle away at the government by constantly attacking them. BUT he thought the frontbench lacked substance and the attack stuff only works for a short time before people start asking “well, what would you do differently?” He was also highly critical of the Liberal party’s position on climate change.

  3. [“Obama defends war in peace prize speech” – what a great headline]

    Yeah overnight, Obama is now the darling of the US looney Rights.

    Yes, he can but he cannot.

  4. [Yeah overnight, Obama is now the darling of the US looney Rights.]

    Finns,
    That was my first reaction when I saw the news clip this morning.

    But then, I know that no matter how much Obama acts in ways that The Right advocates, he’s still going to get hammered 24/7 on FoxNews.

  5. [13th Woman Linked to Golfer Tiger Woods – And then there were 13. A second porn star has been added to the list of women romantically linked to golfer Tiger Woods. Sports blog Deadspin.com is reporting that the embattled golfer, 33, had a lengthy affair with porn star Joslyn James (real name: Veronica Siwik-Daniels) during visits to Las Vegas.]

    http://www.usmagazine.com/celebritynews/news/thirteenth-woman-linked-to-tiger-woods-1970241

    Lets see, he has to play and finish his normal Majors of 72 holes. Tiger, you sexy thang, you are the real Tiger, grrrrrrrrrrrrr.

    BTW: It’s time Crikey pays its toll on time. Too much 502 Bad Gateway lately. 👿

  7. dovif way back at 2832

    [the whole imfrastructure of a city like LA will have to be re-done]

    Yes. And a goodly portion of the Australian infrastructure too, which has been built on the premise of overly cheap carbon (not taking into account the externality of the pollution).

    The huge period of time to change infrastructure is a key reason to start the carbon price adjustment as soon as possible. As someone else here noted the other day, in the alternative, the infrastructure cost of moving even one major coastal city is stupendous

  9. In defence of the Australian Skeptics, and the skeptic movement in general, the crazy element, like Barry Williams, are not truly representative of the membership as a whole. None of the serious people in the organisation, or others like it, will waste time on climate change denial or science denial in general. The movement today is very much about challenging pseudoscience and quackery – not maintaining the sort of libertarian world view which is associated with skeptics of old.

    I’m not so sure.
    I used to be very active in the Skeptics, but eventually left altogether because of the level of AGW denialism, among other things. I got sick of having utterly futile arguments. It was clear that a large number were ‘skeptics’ only because they hated hippies and greenies; they were therefore fine pointing out what was wrong with crystals or homeopathy or water divining, but couldn’t extend the same skepticism to any lunacy coming from the right of the political spectrum.

    There are a few exceptions that I know of, but if the majority of the membership don’t share these views, they’re certainly not brave enough to say so.

    I also disagree that it would be ‘wasting time’ to deal with science denial. IMO this should be one of the central concerns of a skeptic group. Denialism is a form of pseudoscience, and one which is very dangerous and pernicious. If the Aus Skeptics want to fade into irrelevance by spending all their time laughing at water dowsers, then great, but it’s a rather odd order of priorities to say that it would be wasting time to tackle climate change denialism instead!

  10. [No one will hear us sreeeeammmm!!!]

    Vera, i feel your pain. just like i am hearing Obama’s sreeeeeeeammmm!!! now:

    [“For make no mistake: evil does exist in the world,” Obama said.]

    The trouble is many people in the World think that the US is a Great Satan. And I like to see Obama spells out which ones are good war and which are bad.

  11. The Shadow Finance Minister is trying to talk down the credit risk rating of Australian states and while simultaneously trying to increase the sovereign risk rating for foreign investment in the Australian economy.

    Talk about laugh!

  13. Scene: Darkened room. [Numerous sounds of shots, ricochets, IEDs and grenades detonating and shrapnel whizzing through the air. All interspersed with calls of, ‘Yeehah!’ and ‘Take That!’, and the dreadful cries of the wounded and the dying.

    Scene: Darkened room when light switched on. Dazed Coalition survivors look around, urgently reloading their weapons and grabbing more handgrenades.

    Scene: Outside the room. Rudd to Gillard, ‘Did you hear something strange?’
    Gillard, ‘Yes, but I could not understand what it was.’

    Scene: Inside the room.
    Abbott, ‘Is everyone ready?’
    All, ‘YEEESSS!’
    Abbott, switching off lights, ‘FIRE!’

  15. vera,

    Yes, of course I could see Barnaby sitting down at the table.

    But I could also see the other nineteen ministers getting up and leaving at the same time!

  16. Boerwar 😀
    I hear those ricocheting bullets from hear LOL (keeping my head down!)

    The other G20 ministers would wonder where Barnaby was from, they wouldn’t understand the language.

  17. [Could you imagine Barnaby sitting down at a G20 Finance Ministers meeting?]

    Vera, yes, I can!!!!!

    Barnyard to the Chinese FM (foaming mouth, ala Sir Les): “Hey Chinky eye, what about some chop suey, chop suey after the meeting tonight”. or

    To the Indonesian FM: “Mohammed, what about a holiday at Christmas Island, all expenses paid”.

  19. Abbott and Joyce, are basically reserve grade players who have now been asked to step up to first grade, and both have been found wanting.

    It’s one thing when they could hide behind Howard and Costello, now they have to stand up for themselves.

    You never get a second chnace to make a first impression.

    Sure, a lot of people aren’t paying attention, but the little that is getting through, just reinforces the perception that these guys are light weights.

    They have done themselves no good, and probably some damage, in just a few short days.

  23. Would Barnaby remember which Chinese-born Australian businessperson is an innocent victim of totalitarianism, and which one is a dangerous spy?

  25. If a future Finance Minister Joyce attended a G20 Finance Ministers meeting we might finally get a meeting communique worth reading.

  27. Finns
    Boring chow and not very good 😛 We went to a local pub, hubby had steak I had some fancy salad thingo The drinks went down well though 🙂

  30. [Hard spotting anything except the distraction in the background of the second picture]

    Vera, that was the Tiger Special (Prawn that is, and that’s the chow you should have had for your Bday, Woodfire BBQ Giant Tiger Prawns in tangy Yakitori sauce) :kiss:

  32. [Why can’t those “irrelevant” Greens pay attention to the PB resident hacks and stop winning booths in the Bradfield bielection.]

    Well done Marg, you got some rich people on the North Shore to vote for you, in the absence of a Labor candidate. That’s very nice. Did you notice that in all the middle and lower income booths, the Liberals improved their vote, because Labor voters refused to support your extreme policies?

  34. Leader of the Opposition, ‘Did you mean to upset the Chinese?’
    Shadow Minister for Finance, ‘Who cares?’
    Leader of the Opposition, ‘They do, apparently, and so do the Australian businesses that trade with China. They have had to spend a fair bit of time trying to calm down their business partners. They have also let it be known that we can forget campaign contributions while you keep shooting off your mouth.’
    Shadow Minister for Finance, ‘What a boring bunch of farts they are then.’
    Leader of the Opposition, ‘Barnett has complained as well. He has had a bugger of a time trying to persuade Moodie’s not to downrate his credit rating, and that they should take no notice of the Shadow Minister for Finance.’
    Shadow Minister for Finance, ‘What a boring fart he is as well. Anyway, what do you think we should do next?’
    Leader of the Opposition, ‘Well I am going to complain that they have not released the Treasury modelling for the ETS. That should give the enemy a fright. Have you got anything up your sleeve?’
    Shadow Minister for Finance, ‘Nah, but Andrews is going over the top next with some stuff on immigration numbers.’
    Leader of the Opposition, ‘That should give the enemy a fright.’

  36. [ Barnyard to the Chinese FM (foaming mouth, ala Sir Les): “Hey Chinky eye, what about some chop suey, chop suey after the meeting tonight”. or

    To the Indonesian FM: “Mohammed, what about a holiday at Christmas Island, all expenses paid”. ]

    With apologies to Rudyard Kipling :

    It will never benefit old redneck barnaby to hustle the asian brown

    For while redneck riles, the asian smiles and he weareth old redneck down

    And at the end of the fight is a tombstone white, bearing the name of the late deceased

    And an epitaph drear, a fool lies here who tried to hustle the east

  37. Marg, the Anglo St booth, North Chatswood, is just down the road from the Lane Cove National Park. In my daily walk, i see the tree huggers everyday performing their daily act.

  42. If me commenting on your post makes you think you’re a bother, marg, you’re right.

    If it makes you think the Greens are, you’re wrong.

  45. [ Well, this blog will liven up considerably if the Greens win the bop in the Senate after the next election.]

    Why?

    Most people here expect that the greens will likely have BOP then.

    It still doesn’t mean the greens will get everything they want. In fact it may well turn out to be a curse for them. Having to accept compromise and take responsibility if they block stuff willy nilly.

  46. Polls must have just about finished for the year. This thread will probably get to 100,000 posts by next February. (Unless William has some summer repeats lined up for us.)

  47. [I seems to remember articles of them talking themself up for seats? So they were successful?]

    As far as I’ve heard the Greens have never claimed they will win any lower house seats. That talk is always supporters or other commentators. Then this is turned around to blast the Greens when they, unsurprisingly, fail to win any.

  50. [The success of The Greens]

    What the by-elections proved, Marg, was that even in upper-class seats like Bradfield and Higgins, fewer people voted Green than voted Labor or Green in 2007. In other words, the Greens failed to hold the Labor+Green vote, so they are less well placed to take votes from the Liberals than Labor is. And that will be even more true in middle and lower income seats than in wealthy ones. These by-elections exposed the Greens’ pretensions to be a serious lower-house party. The Greens are an upper-income, inner-city ghetto party, and will remain one.

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