The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead at 58-42 for the third successive week. Also included are leadership approval ratings (Kevin Rudd predictably little changed on a fortnight ago; Tony Abbott with mediocre ratings, which is much better than Turnbull had been doing); Copenhagen (important, but unlikely to reach agreement); and “Christmas spending”. We’ve also had a 400-sample of Western Australian voters from Westpoll (see right) which has federal Labor’s lead in the state at 53-47 (compared with 53-47 against in 2007). The West Australian takes this to mean Abbott “has largely proved a turn-off for WA voters”, but it might equally be to do with Westpoll’s low-sample volatility, which has seen the score go from 55-45 in February to 50-50 in May to 53-47 in December.
Same old, same old.
[Bolt dismisses all the climate conclusions based on temperature readings taken there as bunkum.]
Bolt thinks the whole “homogenisation” process, i.e. the skew in the data caused by the fact most weather stations are where people live, is evidence that all climate data has been doctored to create a warming when none exists.
He hasn’t even started to consider the reasons why data needs to be homogenised so that it is a fair comparison over time. He has just rejected the whole process outright without explaining why it shouldn’t be done.
Greens at 10% in the Essential Research poll.
Frank, late in the last thread:
[ So Jon Kelly withdraws from Cowan – thanks tp a certain B Burke.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/14/2770527.htm ]
Well, he got one thing right… Brian Burke is the kiss of death. I’m surprised Labor wanted anything to do with him after he quit the party and ran against them, trying to win Girrawheen for himself in 2005… then again, WA Labor has a proven history of having rocks in their head lately. (PB link here.) I guess we’ll be seeing another loser of a northern suburbs marginal state seat going for Cowan, then… Dianne Guise perhaps?
Now that I think of it, where are the safe Labor federal seats in the northern suburbs? Surely the safe Labor-ness of Girrawheen / Nollamara doesn’t just evaporate. Similarly safe seats south of the river give them Fremantle and Brand.
Cowan has alawys been a problem for Labor since Graham Edwards retured, so I’m not really surprised there.
And for the Twitters amongst us, Lateline are now on Twitter.
http://twitter.com/Lateline
[Bolt thinks the whole “homogenisation” process, i.e. the skew in the data caused by the fact most weather stations are where people live, is evidence that all climate data has been doctored to create a warming when none exists.]
Bolt will cling to any minute scrap of BS to try and argue his nutty case
While you are all busy trying to bury CO2 underground, Troofy has ben busy in his tinny in the ponds at JCU measuring the algal growth in the cO2 Collectors.
As Cud Chewer says Things are happening out there. The spin off from the algae is also looking very profitable as well.
Sorry, link for 7
http://fw.farmonline.com.au/news/nationalrural/wool/general/converting-coal-to-algae-to-stockfeed/1668606.aspx
From previous thread
Wholeheartedly agree with both!
Some more on the process.
http://abccarbon.com/anna-algae-anglo-all-together/
[retured]
That should be Retired. Oh and I got my seats mixed up, Simpkin was elected after Edwards retired, was thinking of Canning – but Cowan also includes the state seat of West Swan which Rita Saffiotti comfortably holds, and will no doubt be helping to campaign witgh new bub in arms (she’s due any day now) – so that will be a plus for any new Labor candidate, and also the general stench of Abbott and Barnyard won’t help simpkins this time around – at least Labor won’t have the problem of replacing the candidate closer to the poll as they did in 2004 in Canning with poor old Kay Hallahan.
To quote William:
[This was assisted in no small part by Labor’s misfortunes with its candidates. Gerick was initially given the nod to recover her old seat, but the leukaemia she was first diagnosed with a few months prior to her 2001 defeat claimed her life on Christmas Day, 2003. The party then endorsed Cimlie Bowden, previously best known for an unsuccessful bid to unseat Australian Nursing Federation state secretary Mark Olson in 2001. Reports of Labor concern about Bowden’s behaviour began to circulate in the middle of 2004, including talk of a falling out with her former friend and campaign manager, Shelley Archer (an upper house MP whose connections with Brian Burke brought her national attention in early 2007). Bowden made an angrily worded announcement of her decision to withdraw shortly after Cowan MP Graham Edwards called for her to be replaced by his former state ministerial colleague Kay Hallahan, who was duly endorsed despite expressing reservations about returning to politics.]
http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/canning.htm
From the previous thread
Dr Good 1026
[Socrates
Are you saying that Coal power can be GHG emission free with current technology for only roughly a 30% increase in running costs?
If so, it will put nuclear and probably solar thermal out of business for hundreds of years.]
No that is not what I said or meant. I don’t think CCT is feasible for many reasons. Even if it is, apart from the extra capital cost and running cost, CCT technology in theory needs about 30% of the power generated by a coal fired power station to run the CCT equipment (running cost only). Hence it will be a far less efficient sort of coal fired power station. According to some sources I have read nuclear power would then be cost competitive with it.
Also I find it very hard to believe that CCT will make coal competitive for hundreds of years when the world only has 150 years of coal reserves remaining. That is the really silly bit about this whole debate; in the end we will have to move away from coal and oil power anyway (sooner rather than later for oil). The people who own current oil and coal reserves are just holding onto thier market for grim death.
[Brian Burke is the kiss of death. I’m surprised Labor wanted anything to do with him after he quit the party and ran against them, trying to win Girrawheen for himself in 2005.]
What? Margaret Quirk won Girrawheen in 2005 – or was she Brian Burke in drag? To my recollection Burke has not run for anything since retiring as Premier.
[What? Margaret Quirk won Girrawheen in 2005 – or was she Brian Burke in drag? To my recollection Burke has not run for anything since retiring as Premier.]
He’s referring to Jon Kelly.
[Bolt thinks the whole “homogenisation” process, i.e. the skew in the data caused by the fact most weather stations are where people live, is evidence that all climate data has been doctored to create a warming when none exists.]
Tell that to the German soldiers of Stalingrad. All those cannons going off, all those tanks spewing hot exhaust gases, the bombs and the landmines… must have been a scorcher there in December 1942 when an entire army basically froze to death.
But seriously, there was also some emphasis in the article linked from Bolt’s post on this base being a hub for Antarctic tourism. Although I didn’t read every tedious word of it, the imputation seemed to be that maybe the figures had been exaggerated to the “warmer” side so as not to discourage tourists from visiting a place that they may have seen as too cold.
58/42…….astonishing that so many people will still express support for the O’s. Abbott has fizzled out already.
dear blogger as a lowley grandma i read you some days i wonder and i am a labor person and i do enjoy you lot and learn a lot as well.
but i often wonder do you all work are you students are you retired.
just sticky beaking.; I noticed a bit on crickey that keane thinks that Mr. rudd is
just going to the mary mckillop chapel to pray and be in with the in crowd.
as a christian i thought for goodness sake isnt it best to pray for something and find some peace of mind and a bit of time for your self as you jet out to such an important meating. sorry i will not bother you all again.
you seem like a great lot of young people just like the lot when my son lived at home that sat around for hours in the holidays that is and at week ends talking about the world and how could they put up with J H any longer,
Looks like contracts have been put in place for trials at three large coal fired power stations on the Eastern seaboard;
http://www.sustainabilitymatters.net.au/articles/37285-Algal-synthesiser-offers-renewed-hope-of-rapid-CO2-emissions-reduction
o one more thing a miricale takes up to 30 or 40 years to be tested.
But i think that we are given wonderful people to do wonderful research to
find cures for people re the young man with m.s so in its way that may be also a miracle. you never know.
[He’s referring to Jon Kelly.]
Ah, I see.
Calabrese for Cowan!
[Calabrese for Cowan!]
I may be crazy, but I’n not THAT crazy to stand for parliament – I’m a behind the scenes person. I’d be a cross between Barnyard and Latham if I was put under the pump.
From the Essential report.
Tony Abbott’s Approval 34% Disapproval 36% Don’t know 31%
He’s already in negative territory.
To have the initial impression from the voters already negative is a bad sign.
Wow, that algal synthesiser sounds almost too good to be true!
my say,
You’ll probably find that the greater majority of us are on the wrong side of fifty! 🙂
Assuming this is the last real poll of the year, it suggests that Abbott has got no bounce at all. He’s too well-known a commodity to be passed off as a fresh face. His image in the public mind fairly fixed, and it is
* WorkChoices (massive negative)
* loose cannon (negative)
* offensive remarks to women (negative)
* climate denialist / opportunist (probably a neutral with the swinging voters)
* conservative Catholic (probably a positive with the swinging voters, but only a weak one.)
[He’s already in negative territory]
And well behind where Turnbull started…
[Now that I think of it, where are the safe abor federal seats in the northern suburbs? Surely the safe Labor-ness of Girrawheen / Nollamara doesn’t just evaporate. Similarly safe seats south of the river give them Fremantle and Brand.]
What’s not in Perth is split between Stirling and Cowan.
At the last redistribution, Labor proposed to radically redraw Stirling and Cowan in a way that would turn the two marginal seats into a two safe seats – one Labor, one Liberal.
Ironically (or should I say, fittingly, given that Labor held both seats then) the Liberals proposed to do the same thing at the redistribution before that.
Assuming this is the last real poll of the year
Newspoll should be out tomorrow shouldn’t it?
Another thing from the last thread: was Shane Hill any good as an MP? I never heard much of him over two terms in Geraldton, and now he’s running for Durack (maaaybe winnable, although I doubt it unless the Libs have a real wipeout). 2001, he got elected mainly because of a dodgy Lib member along with One Nation getting 20% and skewing everything; 2005, he got re-elected probably because of Colin’s far canal and the Libs’ failure to win any of the seats they oughta; then in 2008, he got both barrels of the anti-Labor swing and his seat being redistributed a few % to the Liberal side of the board before he started. He’s had a kind of accidental career, both getting in and out.
23
Dario
When Kev was asked the question about Nukaleer at the community Cabinet here the other night he quietly answerred by basically saying there are enough alternative renewable energy processes under investigation and testing available in Australia for us not to require Nukaleer.
I suspect there are lots of scenes happening in the background, that we do not hear about, that are on the verge of big breakthroughs, and this is one of them.
If it becomes as successful as they are spouting there will be no need to shut down the coal fired generators and the by products of biodiesel should also save heaps in importing the stuff for transport.
We will still be creating cO2 from burning the biodiesel in trucks etc but that was always going to be the case with imported diesel anyway
Shane was a decent guy, and he worked his a&* off in the seat. As much as anything, he was collateral damage under the reapportionment of country seats.
And this is Abbott’s honeymoon! The sheets seem pretty cold so far.
I agree with William – the Westpoll results can be put down to low-sample volatility. To continue the honeymoon analogy… the ALP is up and down like a honeymooner’s donger. Better to be up than down though.
My crass metaphors will now mercifully end.
I thought we were told that the last Newspoll was the last for the year. But who knows? They may want to do a “Abbott bounce” poll.
[And well behind where Turnbull started]
Turnbull’s first Essential measure was in Sept 2008 and was:
Turnbull Approval 36% Disapproval 30% Don’t know 35%
Abbott Approval 34% Disapproval 36% Don’t know 31%
Turnbull’s first Newspoll measure was:
50% satisfied 25% dissatisfied 25% uncommitted
His first Nielsen was:
45% approval 26% disapproval 29% uncommitted
All the early polls have a high uncommitted/don’t know component, but Abbott’s negative score so early is bad news.
Last week’s Newspoll was reported to be the last for the year.
David at 27: cheers, that’d explain it.
From the Abbott Advocate (aka The OO):
[COALITION Catholics today accused Kevin Rudd of of exploiting Mother Mary MacKillop’s expected canonisation as a saint for political gain, urging the Prime Minister to leave “religion to religious leaders”.
Liberal frontbencher Kevin Andrews, a practising Catholic, told The Australian Online that Mr Rudd’s attendance at mass at her namesake chapel in North Sydney was “strange”.]
What’s actually strange,and rather disingenuous is Kevin Andrews’ comment.
The nun incharge of the push for canonisation said on ABC radio today that Rudd is a regular attendee at the North Sydney church when he’s in Sydney, as it is three minutes drive from Kirribilli House, i.e. it’s his local you Coalition dummies.
It looks like Abbott is not the Great White Hope afterall. It’s more like the Great White Dope 👿
Rudd on Slynews. Methinks the counter attack Propaganda War has started.
[What’s actually strange,and rather disingenuous is Kevin Andrews’ comment].
Rudd made a point in 2006, of not letting the conservative side of politics take “ownership” of the “religious” vote as they have in the US.
He has succeeded in doing so and the conservatives are unhappy about it.
Us godless inner-city cosmolopitans need to be careful to remember how many marginal seats are heavily infested with goddists. Goddists are citizens and have the right to have their views, however strange, taken into account (though not, of course, to inflict them on non-goddists). Our glorious PM is not only a goddist himself, but he is also very sensitive to the concerns of the goddist electorate. Hence his delicate balancing act on same-sex marriage. Having his picture taken with the Blessed Mother Mary or whatever she is goes down well with the goddists and does no harm to anyone else. Abbott and Andrews seem to think they have the goddist vote sewed up but they are wrong if the Blessed Kevin has anything to do with it, which he does.
It’s good to see Rudd has started to keep his messages simple and short
If Rothera is the only station used for the continent I would be fairly concerned. Why only one? Surely every Antartic base routinely collects the relevant data? Something seems odd to me about that. Again, if only one, why only on the Antarctic Peninsula which happens to be the hotspot?
That aside, the whole article in WattsUp does depend on the siting to the weather station. If it was out in the open and it is now up against a recently installed dark wall then it will be showing an artificial growth in temperatures. I would have thought that instead of depending on somewhat random photos from the web, WattsUp could simply have called Rothera and asked them where the weather recording station is, and indeed, whether it is now in the same place it used to be.
Bolt might also have scratched his head and asked why are all the ice shelves in that particular neck of the Antartic woods are collapsing. He might also have wondered why there are more and more vascular plants occupying a greater area each summer on the Antarctic Peninsula. Is there something about urban heat island effects that the plants are too stupid to understand? Perhaps Bolt could explain it to them.
That said, this is another example of cherrypicking by Bolt. The Urban Heat Island thing has been done to death. The problem that should be vexing Bolt is this: ‘Why are hundreds and hundreds of RURAL weather stations around the globe showing temperature increase over time?’
SNIP: Overheated comment deleted – The Management.
[That said, this is another example of cherrypicking by Bolt. The Urban Heat Island thing has been done to death. The problem that should be vexing Bolt is this: ‘Why are hundreds and hundreds of RURAL weather stations around the globe showing temperature increase over time?’]
Not to mention satellite data
As well as “saintgate”, the AA is running the following:
[# australian
Bosses appeal for work laws leniency: HUNDREDS of small businesses could be caught out by the changeover to new em… http://bit.ly/8Llanm 3 minutes ago from twitterfeed
# The Australian australian
Richardson gave advice to Rees plotters: CONTROVERSIAL Labor stalwart Graham Richardson spoke with Eddie Obeid and … http://bit.ly/7mAdS2 3 minutes ago from twitterfeed ]
And from Sunrise:
[sunriseon7
SOAPBOX: K Rudd has again been accused of angry management. Is it acceptable to you if the PM is a yeller? 16 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]
[Our glorious PM is not only a goddist himself, but he is also very sensitive to the concerns of the goddist electorate. Hence his delicate balancing act on same-sex marriage.]
On Gay marriage it seems that Rudd thinks that there isn’t enough demand for it while he is P.M., but within about 10 years it will be legalised, it is just a matter of social change occurring in due season.
[Abbott and Andrews seem to think they have the goddist vote sewed up but they are wrong if the Blessed Kevin has anything to do with it, which he does.]
Well, about 55% of Catholics vote for Labor directly or indirectly:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/09/anglicans-vote-liberal.html
dario
They are always ‘picking’ at the ground station data because they don’t like the message they are getting from the ground stations. It makes them hot under the collar.
Kevvie even manages a sort of delicate balancing act between CofE and RC.
How does he get away with that?