The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.
This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:
Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).
Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.
Also:
• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.
• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.
• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.
• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.
Talking to Americans on health it seems that those who are covered like the way it is, they are scared that they will miss out.
Of course the ill, the elderly, the unemployed miss out. But heck its the I’m alright Jack syndrome. America, or really the many Americas is impossible to comprehend. 🙁
[America, or really the many Americas is impossible to comprehend. :(]
Ruawake,
Try a Bit of Fry sans Laurie to ease the pain.
http://www.stephenfry.com/2009/07/04/americas-place-in-the-world/
FF
[Random abuse from William Bowe]
“Random” implies that it was not a targetted attack and also suggests that the phrase in question was not warranted.
I don’t think either were the case.
William is very politic in his use of barbs.
[I get called a dickhead at least once a day]
Avoid looking into the mirror.
😉
[I get called a dickhead at least once a day, I would take it as a compliment]
Toothy, you are not a dickhead. you are a duckhead on your Arafura Sea patrol, quack quack quack, so you can scare the ASs away.
[Random abuse from William Bowe]
i got that every day from Diog. 😛
TTH 531
[Barack Hussein Obama has been President for over 12 months now. In the House of Reps the democrats hold a majority. In the senate the democrats hold a super majority, meaning they can pass anything they like without a fillibuster.]
That is an incorrect juxtaposition of facts. Thanks to court challenges and stalling of the seating of Al Franken, plus the late defection of Olympia Snow, the Dems have only had the filibuster proof 60 seats for less than half that time.
I would agree Obama has used it poorly though. He seems to imagine that he can negotiate and reach a consensus and not have to force a vote. He has to face the fact that sometimes he will have to fight his enemies and beat them. If he doesn’t, he lets down the people who voted for him.
[i got that every day from Diog.]
Got? So who has changed, you or Diogenes?
[Ruawake, your wish for Alex to retire may come to fruition. There are some strange rumblings in sunnycoast lib land]
I did suggest to Sue Quinn in Alex Somlyay’s office that he resign, she replied that she would pass the email on to him. 🙂
Scarpat, i got this :kiss: from Diog everyday
Mike Rann discussing the State Health Plan and his legacy; Lance Armstrong and Giant Pandas.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Su3tsL-ZkY
[ i got that every day from Diog.
Got? So who has changed, you or Diogenes?]
Obama won. 😀
So maybe Alex “who” Somlyay’s website has been down for a week because he sees no point in spending the money on hosting fees ?
W
You really are a spoilsport sometimes.
Hmmm.
Having exposed the Himalalayan rate of melting error in the IPCC Report, the OO has now, via Associate Editor Stewart Cameron, come up with the context piece. ‘Climate Science on Thin Ice’ The OO 19 Jan.
It is actually quite a difficult piece to follow because it mixes ideological and scientific thinking pr*m*sc**usly.
The article, consciously or unconsciously, is written from the Denialist perspective. It lacks internal consistency. For example, it makes the statement, ‘ Ice and Snow not retreating any more,’ and then quotes several researchers nearly all of whom say exactly the opposite. Oh, and it quotes an Indian Government Report, published before Copenhagen, which is not sure about whether glaciers are retreating, advancing or just plain stodgy. Stewart may or may not have an inkling where the Indian Government was coming from in all this. Who knows?
Nevertheless, the article is well worth reading for its humour.
Stewart rates The Error as ‘at face value…one of the most serious failings yet seen in climate research.’
Actually, he seems to have missed the point. It was not a piece of research but a failure in reporting a piece of non-research based opinion as having the same status as peer-reviewed research. [For getting such basic stuff wrong, Lal should be sacked.]
And if The Error was a single failure of reporting about research, then what about the numerous failings of same in Plimer’s book? Silence.
But, I digress from the funny bits. Stewart, perhaps encouraged by how simple it all seems, and apparently convinced that increasing temperatures have nothing at all to do with the retreating behaviour of most of the globe’s glaciers, tries his own hand at analysing the behaviour of glaciers.
Glaciers, in his opinion, behave in ‘random’ fashion and also in an ‘illogical’ fashion. *grins hugely*
The point of all this, according to Stewart?
‘ At a time when governments are baulking at taking tough measures to combat climate change, this new blow to the credibility of the IPCC could not have come at a worse time.’
True. But by adopting the white-anting approach that he has, Stewart, illogical and random as it might seem to some, has damaged his own credibility along the way.
BH @ # 514
I have been around on this blog for quite a while but at times my visits here have been spasmodic.
I do remember JulieM but not the post you refer to.
I could understand her concern over this matter and would expect that many have been and are still going through the same situation.
We are very lucky in this country in that over the years we have had governments that have put the economic and heath security of us all very high on there priority list.
To me it is only in recent years starting with Workchoices: and now continued by Abbott that this lack of commitment to the security that things like health and financial security bring to us all that things have changed.
The attitude of late of the Federal Opposition to me is very worrying and I am afraid what out children may be saddled with if they get back into Government with politicians like those that now fill the decision making positions in the Liberal/Nats are still in situ.
Diogenes
Posted Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 8:01 pm | Permalink
“Now my question is, …
Which raises a question I don’t know enough about politics to answer.”
you tempt me to requote this , to help
Ratsars
I wouldn’t worry about it too much.
The good thing is that the Nats have just forced the Libs not to want to plant carbon sequestering trees in prime agricultural soil. Apart from being a rank socialist response to something probably best decided by the market, this lack of guts on the part of Abbott will make the Coalitions ‘Climate Action Plan’ so much less credible.
TFF@540:
[Geez, I thought I might have deserved a bit more respect than that!]
What on earth for? You don’t get respect until you earn it. You have not earned it, in fact you are going backwards very fast indeed.
So far you have demonstrated that you are a dickhead. It remains to be seen whether you can overcome that disability by learning some humility.
[Random abuse from William Bowe]
Nothing random about it. If William abuses you, it is for good reason. Live with it, you deserved it.
Straighten up and fly right.
You get no points for thinking you are dog’s gift to blogdom, you have to earn it.
[I didn’t anticipate that when I got up in the morning. And I suppose the strict language policy doesn’t apply when it’s you who decides to abuse someone? Nice.]
William makes the rules. It is his blog, it is not yours. Nobody is forcing you to come here. I for one don’t give a stuff if I never see a post from you again.
He is far, far more patient and forgiving than many, many other mods I have worked with. Lots just cast you into eternal darkness at the first hint of dickheadedness.
This is the best political blog I have ever been on, if you don’t want to participate, you won’t be missed until you contribute something of worth.
I heard of Ron when I came here first six months ago, and it took a few posts from Ron when he returned to realise that he was the genuine article, and now I really look forward to his James Joyce stream of consciousness. He is a breath of fresh air, as I said here when I finally realised that he was the real mccoy.
I’ve spent a lifetime sizing people up as my job, and I have no doubts about Ron.
That so many of the long time posters (amigos, compadres and all) hold him in high respect should be enough for you to think that maybe, just maybe, you should grow out of those nappies and learn to control your bowel movements.
Com to think of it, Ratsars, JulieM’s Dad was probably discussed on the US election thread and not so much here.
Off to get a dose of Mr Darcy on UKTV.
Hope Vera has been able to watch the CC and fill us in because it wasn’t on Apac up her
Somehow I’m very sceptical of this article as for a start they do not do elective surgery on the weekends.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/20/2797275.htm?section=justin
Tony has 12 days to get his carbon stuff together, I hope it means more than giving every kid a box of HB pencils to bury. 🙁
Frank
He had a broken leg. That’s not elective surgery. It’s pretty common for people with broken legs to be cancelled lots of times in SA because elective surgery cases get priority as those figures show up on waiting lists that the public sees so the hospitals look after them in preference.
For the record, “dickhead” isn’t against the rules, which refer to strong swearing. However, its injudicious use will often get you chopped on grounds of abuse – the application of which will unavoidably be influenced by whether I think the abuse was warranted or not. Comments that are allowed when directed at TheTruthHurts would get chopped if directed at someone who doesn’t come here expressly to stir the pot.
Now with that out of the way, can we move on please.
#572
Juking the stats. It’s all in the game, yo.
[A quadriplegic man suffering from a badly broken leg has had his operation cancelled every day for a week.]
While it is sad so what. The man is in no pain, he cannot feel his legs. Is the surgury urgent? I would suggest not – unfortunately.
So hospitals do what they do all over the world. What if the guy got his surgery and someone missed out on a chance to walk?
[Personal insults about his writing and ridiculously calling him a troll says more about your style than ron’s]
I agree that pulling Ron up for his writing is bad form.
But I notice Ron’s fans never pull him up for name-calling, insults, and other bullying behaviour that they are roundly criticising in his detractors.
[While it is sad so what. The man is in no pain, he cannot feel his legs. Is the surgury urgent? I would suggest not – unfortunately.
So hospitals do what they do all over the world. What if the guy got his surgery and someone missed out on a chance to walk?]
Exactly, and there are other factors like the surgeon not being available etc.
HALF TRUTHS
you asjk respect
so i giv you oportunity to say why you think USA wont elect anothr Black POTUS
(and rember that Republicon Party boss (Stevens) is a black Americon , and Condi was SOS undr Bush , and Colin Powell was befores that after being chief of all US miltary with Bush) so wish detail logics base from you
Ruawake, From a ex Brendon Nelson staffer who is still connected Brough is the more likley. Dutton had his go and is now toast at the gold coast with pollsters.But Alex may be beligerent.I may be wrong but a rumor.
Never had a problem with Ron’s posts. Sometimes a bit of a challenge. But it is good to have him back.
I don’t know how Colin Powell is viewed right across the board in the USA but I would have thought he was a good POTUS chance if he ran. But who would he run for now? The Repubs are upset with him for supporting Obama over McCain before the election.
Mistake . I am not a ex Nelson Staffer. That is where i heard this.
I’m worried if I do not get my facts exactly right i will be shot down.
rumour
ru
[While it is sad so what. The man is in no pain, he cannot feel his legs. Is the surgury urgent? I would suggest not – unfortunately.]
I’m sure that is partly the reason why they thought they could keep deferring him but there are other factors than pain.
A neglected fracture would bleed more and have more problems with fracture and wound healing.
Quadriplegics can get autonomic hyperreflexia with untreated pain (even though they can’t feel it) which can cause fatal high blood pressure. You basically get a huge cascade of sympathetic nervous system discharge.
noidea@582:
[Mistake . I am not a ex Nelson Staffer. That is where i heard this.
I’m worried if I do not get my facts exactly right i will be shot down.]
Don’t sweat it. You are doing fine.
556
Last I heard Olympia Snowe (ME) was still very much a Republican and is part of the infamous 40. She voted to take the healthcare bill out of committee I think – but this was not a ‘defection’ as such.
It was Arlen Specter (PA) who switched parties. It’s been suggested a number of times that both (or either of) the two female Republican Senators from Maine could ‘defect’ since 2006 (or even earlier) given they are the only moderates left in the Republican party (Senate), but to date this has not happened.
If we are going to indulge in a US discussion, let’s try and get at least the players right.
noidea
Brough wil not return to the Sunny Coast if that is what you are implying. He tried to hide that his son was under the care of community services in Nambour after “tough” kicked him out. Common knowledge in the area, that is one reason he lost so badly.
He has moved to Vic to rebuild his troubled personal life, I wish him well.
Dio@584:
[Quadriplegics can get autonomic hyperreflexia with untreated pain (even though they can’t feel it) which can cause fatal high blood pressure. You basically get a huge cascade of sympathetic nervous system discharge.]
Dio, if I am ever in SA with a medical problem, I will be relaxed and comfortable if you are in charge of my case.
Bloody hell, you’ve got to know a lot of stuff if you are a doctor.
[I’m sure that is partly the reason why they thought they could keep deferring him but there are other factors than pain.
A neglected fracture would bleed more and have more problems with fracture and wound healing.
Quadriplegics can get autonomic hyperreflexia with untreated pain (even though they can’t feel it) which can cause fatal high blood pressure. You basically get a huge cascade of sympathetic nervous system discharge.]
I’m pretty sure this Gentleman is being treated in the Spinal Unit who would have contigency measures to deal with the pain etc while waiting for surgery.
also have you considered that the patient may have a cold or similar symptoms which prevent him from have an Anesthetic, or that his surgeon may not have been available ? Xmas/New Year are a bad time for being in hospital.
Don
Most doctors don’t know about autonomic hyperreflexia, as I’m sure Frank can attest to. I just happened to see a case just after I gave a talk about it so I knew what to do. I did a PhD in autonomic neurophysiology so I was interested in that kind of thing.
Frank
I was supposed to see my blood doc in Nov, he has cancelled 4 times, my next appointment is in March.
I could write the headline myself.
“Leukaemia patient denied specialist treatment for 5 months”
The fact I have monthly blood tests and don’t need to see him is, of course, irrelevant.
Ruawake. I do not know about the brough Family troubles .What i am trying to say in a least than articulate way is that Alex may not be contesting the next election. Which may leave the door open for one of the so called ” persons who should not be lost to parliment, future leader” to have a go.
Frank
There are always plenty of surgeons around at Christmas to fix a broken leg. We have trauma doctors all the time, esp at Xmas.
And he wasn’t cancelled because of sickness; they cancelled because of lack of theatre time. You could do it under a spinal anaesthetic anyway if he was sick.
[Frank
I was supposed to see my blood doc in Nov, he has cancelled 4 times, my next appointment is in March.
I could write the headline myself.
“Leukaemia patient denied specialist treatment for 5 months”
The fact I have monthly blood tests and don’t need to see him is, of course, ]
And in most cases you get to see the Registrar and not the consultant – who deals with the new cases or anything urgent.
less than articulate sorry
Dio@590:
[I just happened to see a case just after I gave a talk about it so I knew what to do. ]
You are too modest.
My comment stands.
[There are always plenty of surgeons around at Christmas to fix a broken leg. We have trauma doctors all the time, esp at Xmas.]
Not when you’re in a Spinal unit – it’s either done by the patient’s Consultant or an Orthopeaedic Surgeon or their respective Registrars.
Frank
There are three orthopaedic surgeons on every day at a major hospital who can fix a broken leg. And there is always a Spinal consultant and registrar on call. We do make a bit of an effort, even at Christmas!
Boerwar @ # 567
I hope you are right but never underestimate the power of stupidly and self interest
BH @ # 569
The Community Cabinet Meeting was not on here anywhere either. We had the Australia Day address By Peter Cosgrove on A PAC.