Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.

This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:

newspoll0810

Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).

Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.

Also:

• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.

• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.

• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.

• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

Comments Page 13 of 20
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  1. [But I notice Ron’s fans never pull him up for name-calling, insults, and other bullying behaviour that they are roundly criticising in his detractors]

    I think in that instance Bilbo would sort it out.

    tho ron can be a tad heated,i genuinely believe no offence would intentional by him.

    us shoot from the hip types sometimes forget that words are bullets.

  2. [The Community Cabinet Meeting was not on here anywhere either. We had the Australia Day address By Peter Cosgrove on A PAC.]

    Yeah what was up with that? Bludy APAC… I was hping to see if Chrissie wold make an entrance.

  3. Diogenes I am new here to posting but i have read a lot of posts and you surgeons maybe do not get a lot of feedback but when i was 17 I had BIID and destroyed my lh index finger .After i got rid of it i was fine but the surgeon who fixed what was left of it was great. never really got thank him so via this forum . Thank you.
    The godwin thing and email gate can happen to anyone.

  8. [PY

    Your point?

    Or did you post on the wrong blog

    ;)]

    More like he needs professional help – his unhealthy obsession with the Royal Family, Religion and the NSW Premier and his dog borders on someting quite sinister if he is not dealt with by an appropriate Health Professional

  15. Boerwar

    [In the course of your work do you come across ’saintless’ miracles?]

    I saw someone yesterday who would meet the “miracle” description. He had a Merkel Cell Carcinoma which had spread from his leg to his groin and abdomen. It is uniformly fatal once it has done that. The diagnosis was proven by good pathologists.

    I cut the main one off his leg and sent him to an oncologist who offered him palliative chemotherapy and said he could not be cured.

    He refused the chemo and looked into ancient cures popular in Germany (he was of German origin). He is a very intelligent, serious and sensible guy. He started a diet of grapes only for three weeks (he said you had to take a break when you got the runs). He also took flaxseed oil, vit C and grapeseed oil. I told him I had no objection as there wasn’t much alternative.

    When I saw him yesterday a year after first seeing him, all of his disease had disappeared and there was no sign of anything. His cancer isn’t one recognised to go into spontaneous remission like melanoma can.

    It wasn’t a miracle but it certainly was miraculous. I wish I knew what turned things around. He’s going to write to the oncologist to tell him that he is fine and that the oncologist should never tell people there is no hope.

  19. Have Kev’s CCs been banned by Sky & Apac? Murdock owns Sky doesn’t he? If so he might have spat the dummy because the CCs are too muck like free good advertising for the govt 😉

    Last week they repeated Abbott’s “big” enviroment speech a few times.
    Could be no more Kev and double billing for Tone.

  22. Who needs Apac anyway, Kev’s going back to Sunrise!
    [VOTERS will soon be given a chance to put Kevin Rudd on the spot on live television when he reprises his weekly gig on the Seven Network’s Sunrise program.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/rudd-to-face-tv-questions-20100120-mlsa.html

    And Abbott will be up against Julia in a regular 9 gig
    [Tony Abbott and Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard will also reprise their weekly sparring segment on Channel Nine’s Today show from February 5.]

  24. [so i giv you oportunity to say why you think USA wont elect anothr Black POTUS
    (and rember that Republicon Party boss (Stevens) is a black Americon , and Condi was SOS undr Bush , and Colin Powell was befores that after being chief of all US miltary with Bush) so wish detail logics base from you]

    Okay on one condition you stop spelling things incorrectly on purpose.

    Because I think it was one of those “things to try” sort of thing, but now the grounds been broken(having a Black President) it would be hard to expect another with an almost completely white washington.

  25. Anyone else tired of our media’s obsession with Prince William?
    Sure he’s a good young bloke, but should the visit of a British royal take precedence over the Haiti earthquake disaster?

  26. The Democratic loss of Ted Kennedy’s former Senate seat can be blamed on a terrible campaign by Martha Cokeley, personified by her decision to go on holidays 3 weeks before election day. I just don’t see why Obama should be wearing the blame for this debacle.

  27. Gus
    “ho ron can be a tad heated,i genuinely believe no offence would intentional by him.

    us shoot from the hip types sometimes forget that words are bullets”

    polly when i insult you , i still like you , petal Imagine if you were a Liberal Come to think of it Possum is in wars with rthat cc denier Andrew Bolt each with own charts

    maybes i should just onse strolll into Andrew Bolts own Lib Blog of 00’s , all them prissy Lib bloggers and me in th middle of thems , calmng them all so to speak

  33. Aussie

    i heard that the Dem was seen as a bit cocky and had a bit of baggage that was annoying to the swing voter.

    Obi will cop most of the flak,but the dem machine tripped up badly

  34. Truth Hurts

    “Because I think it (a black POTUS) was one of those “things to try” sort of thing, but now the grounds been broken(having a Black President) it would be hard to expect another with an almost completely white washington.”

    No , a black POTUS) was ‘one of those things to try” does not stand merit against POTUS electons voted by ALL states ands not just by Washington

    Also as black americons equal about 12% of all voters so 40% non black also voted for him so it is not just washington that votes , and in many States there ar NO black americons at all and he won those States

    12% black and 40% non black all voted for Obama because he was Dems candidat and no othr reason

    Had he been hispanic , anothr about 12% of voters (or white) vote would hav still been same

    Also he prob will get elected again in 2012 and if so would also destroy your point of ‘one of those things to try” surely

  35. Peter Young
    [Posted Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    What happened in Massachusetts?]

    PY ..

    who didn’t see THAT comming!

    What have you been smoking!!!

  36. Aussie- #635

    Many may have seen it coming, many may have thought about it and many may have spoken about it, ad nauseum.

    However, I actually acted upon it.

  37. Aussieguru01
    Posted Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    “What happened in Massachusetts?

    I tried to detail reasons in my #421 , poor polisys incl econamy

    thanks for that map , I’d psay Dems will def lose ND and NV to start , so Dems 60 vote was gone this Nov

  39. But anyhow I don’t think they can block any action the EPA wants to take. They can try to have anything the EPA does rescinded via a process that goes HOR, Senate and then also requires POTUS approval to block.

  40. “But anyhow I don’t think they can block any action the EPA wants to take”

    EPA is a furfy re CC USA mitigaton USA is made of lawyrs , and any EPA move would be held up in courts for yrs before EPA could act , over if ‘health’ afected or not

  41. [Sure he’s a good young bloke, but should the visit of a British royal take precedence over the Haiti earthquake disaster?]

    Haiti is last weeks news.

    Next week we’ll have some other earthquake/tsunami/mudslide/volcano/ferret attack to fill in the 1 hour news gap.

  42. Looks like Rudd starting to sweat with recent polling.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/rudds-tv-comeback-aims-to-bring-home-the-bacon-20100120-mlt2.html

    [It’s enough to put viewers off their breakfast: the country’s most senior politicians are about to invade morning television as both sides ratchet up their soft media profiles in an election year.

    The Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, will revive his appearances on Channel Seven’s Sunrise, the program many believe helped him win office, only this time without his former sparring partner, the shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey.]

  44. evan14 “Sure he’s (prinse William) a good young bloke, but should the visit of a British royal take precedence over the Haiti earthquake disaster?

    TheTruthHurts
    Posted Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 12:44 am | Permalink
    “Haiti is last weeks news”

    Its not ‘news’ , its a tragedy , still being reportd

    And answer to Evan14 queston is who damn well cares about english Royal familys , soon we get a Republic th better , and rid us of RToyal junkets & Monarchys , we ar aussies and proud of it without england royals

  45. Aussieguru01
    Posted Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 12:58 am | Permalink

    Ron,

    “You may be interested in this article from the Washington Post…”

    thanks very much Aussieguru01 , apreciate , very good articel showing ALL sides “spin’ on it both 2 Dems sides and Republicon view

    strange but Republicon guy came up with somewhats close to my view for defeat , and i hope both Obama and Dems control congress learn froms it beore mid term electon this Nov othrwise more losses over my predicts of ND and Nv

    ‘Alex Vogel, a GOP strategist, said the White House was right in dismissing Coakley as a “bad candidate.”

    “But that alone doesn’t explain losing Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat mere months after his death,” Vogel said. “President Obama won the state by 26 points, and the entire congressional delegation is Democratic. What the Brown success tells me is that the electorate did not leave the Bush years liberalized; they left angry with bad and ineffective government.”

    but Vogel is too general maybe delib , mainly healthcare and econamy , 1o% unemply , CC , Banks

  46. #644 – Ron

    [ And answer to Evan14 queston is who damn well cares about english Royal familys , soon we get a Republic th better , and rid us of RToyal junkets & Monarchys , we ar aussies and proud of it without england royals ]

    I don’t want to make a habit of this but I agree with you…..again.

    The sooner we get rid of the Royals all the better. State Premiers and PM’s will then have to find something of public benefit to create photo opportunities.

    Besides, who needs royals when we have our own Aussie Queens.
    At least our Queens care for the person in the street – the working person, not just elites.
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/peter124u/4289647259/

  47. The issue with the republic is not so much whether people want one, but how to accomplish it. The kind of republic people want to have – one in which presidents would be directly elected by the people – represents a huge departure from the parliamentary system we now have.

    For better or worse, a constitutional monarchy in which parliaments are sovereign is our default operating system. Since it is nearly always easier to run with the status quo rather than replace it, I suspect this issue will be low down the list for some time yet. For my part, I like a system in which it is easy to eject rulers from power, regardless of who they are or what title they have.

  48. The Democrats who were for a moment drinking Champaign and carrying on like political millionaires suddenly find they have wasted a precious opportunities.

    Now they will run helter skelter like wimpy cowards and it is that look that will in the end cost them more.

    Obama who has avoided being seen as ‘angry’ (one can only imagine what the right wing media would have done with that image, but there are no lows the murdoch media wont descend) now needs to put some steel into his Democrat buddies.

    [Fools On The Hill]
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/

  49. Thomas is right on the money as far as Obama goes, but this still isn’t really his fault.

    Coakley ran an absolutely abysmal campaign for the general. She assumed she had it in the bag, and she left the entire field to Brown while he established a strong campaign. She made some epic gaffes – the quote about not wanting to stand outside Fenway Park in the cold should be the centrepiece if anyone ever writes a book about “Things You Should Never Say To The Press If You’re A Political Candidate”, and her second gaffe going on a sports show and not knowing who Massachusetts baseball star Curt Schilling was… it really was the quintessential example of how *not* to run a campaign.

    I have zero doubt that if Michael Capuano, who she soundly beat in the primary, or Alan Khazei, who she absolutely slaughtered, had been the nominee, we’d be seeing them sworn in as the new Democratic Senator from Massachusetts.

  50. Ron @ # 644

    ”Its not ‘news’ , its a tragedy , still being reportd’

    It is good to see that you, unlike some, see this for what it is and that you have some sort of perspective on this. I am afraid that though people are still suffering and dying that it will quickly fade from our TV screens

    “ who damn well cares about english Royal familys , soon we get a Republic th better , and rid us of RToyal junkets & Monarchys , we ar aussies and proud of it without england royals

    Could not agree with you more Ron. I make no comments about their personal character but these people have no relevance to me or my family of their future. They are foreign nationals whose allegiances are to another country. Australia is placed well down the list of their affections and responsibilities.

    My mother had a dream that she would live long enough to see the new century in and she just made it. My dream is that I live long enough to see Australia become a Republic. The years are ticking away very fast and only time will tell now.

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