Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.

This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:

newspoll0810

Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).

Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.

Also:

• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.

• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.

• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.

• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

Comments Page 14 of 20
1 … 13 14 15 … 20

  1. During my stroll though the morning online newspapers I came across this article by Brendan Brown – whoever he is.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/julia-gillard-should-be-treasurer-20100120-ml24.html

    Am I the only one who thinks this is a load of rubbish? My impression of Swan is that he was doing a more than a capable job as Treasurer, a job that he is more then qualified to do and in which he has more then a passing interest considering he work experience before he entered Parliament. As for Gillard, she impresses me every time I se he. However it is clear where her heart and it is not Treasury. In addition it would be almost impossible to find someone to take over he current responsibilities and be as well informed as she is and to front one of the major areas of the Governments programme.

  2. Ratsars

    Yes +1 Swan is doing a good job and so is Gillard. I see no benefit to either, or Labor, in making a change. Treasurer is an unpopular job that has wrecked many careers. If Swan is prepared to do it well with no ambition to be PM, that is a good thing. Its a stupid article.

  4. So Malcolm’s back….. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/turnbull-wont-give-enemies-satisfaction-of-driving-him-out/story-e6frg6nf-1225821809542

    Will he fulfil his own prophesy and start a new centre right party?

    I quote from ‘The Education of a Young Liberal’ by John Hyde Page (now out of print) pages 273-274.

    It comes from an exchange between Turnbull and the author where Turnbull is trying to persuade him from switching his support from Peter King.

    ” ‘The problem with the Liberal Party is that it is becoming like a doughnut, with people like your your Young Liberal friends at one end, all those pensioners at the other and nothing in between’”

    “If something was not done, Turnbull predicted, the Liberal Party would soon be supplanted by some new centre-right Party. It wouldn’t be hard at all, thanks to the Internet – he took a moment or two to praise the marvel that is the Internet – a couple of wealthy financiers, a few emails, an online recruitment campaign and voila, a new conservative force in Australian politics, and no more Liberal Party.”

    (apologies to those who read this before as I posted this quote on an earlier thread)

  6. BK@655:

    [Here is a testimony to the worth of Scott Brown, newly elected Senator for MA]

    Thanks BK, very interesting.

    What I find amazing is the polarisation of the electorate in the US.

  8. Politics in the USA is crazy. That’s my view.
    Yet the big 2 parties seem to look to the US as leaders in political campaigning methods. Whilst Australia has more similarities than perhaps other countries with the US, the cultural mindset to “society” of Australians and Americans is light years apart.
    Thus, I believe that suggestions that Malcolm Turnbull can create a successful broadbased poltical party “out of the internet”, are misguided. Looking to Britain, which I suggest is closer to Australia in its cultural mindset to “society”, some claim the Conservatives are leading in the polls in this election year, because the Conservative leader has “empathy” with the person in the street. If the relationship with the ordinary person in the street is a determinant of political success, then Turnbull is bound to be unsuccessful. He gives the impression he is uncomfortable with the ordinary person in the seat of Wentworth, who are probably not stereotypical Australians, and it is not hard to imagine he would be mortified by ordinary Australians on the streets of outer suburbs, in regional towns and the paddocks of rural areas. Turnbull would believe he can create a new party, I suggest because he is imbued with the culture of big business, where the boss is always right and the servants brown-nose the boss, whether the boss is right or wrong. The role of “elites” in the governance of the USA, has been a topic of discussion. “Elites” don’t have the same impact in Australia.

  9. How ironic that the Democrats own constituency, the ones that health reform would help, have shafted the health bill. They deserve everything they get. Crazy stuff.

  10. #659 Gary Bruce

    I understood Massachusetts state health system is a good one (and different to the rest of the USA). Thus health was probably not a personal issue for electors.

  11. I know this is a BS article but look at the headline and look at the figures and tell me if they match.
    [US Kids grade Obama a C-minus after first year
    Nineteen per cent gave him an A, with 30 per cent B’s, 24 per cent C’s and 10 per cent D’s.]
    Then there is this –
    [The same magazine found in 2008 that US children favored Mr Obama over Senator John McCain in the presidential race by a thin margin.]
    So 24% giving him C and the kids only marginally favouring him in 2008 show that they are “moving away” from him? Am I missing something here?

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26615462-5003402,00.html

  15. Has the Australian media ever been this interested before in a U.S Senate race?
    Methinks Obama’s obituary is being written prematurely!
    However it astounds me that so many Americans are terrified of providing some sort of health coverage to 40 million of their fellow citizens.

  18. I don’t know much about USA politics except mainly for what you read on the net or see on TV but I think the big worry for people is the 10% unemployment and all the homes lost because people couldn’t pay the mortgage due to the banks loaning to people who couldn’t afford the loan in the first place.
    Health care is important for sure but maybe having a job and home come first in the minds of most?

    Maybe Obama should have made jobs his main priority and then tackled health care in the second half of his term?

    Look what Rudd did here, it was all about the stimulus providing jobs or helping employers to keep staff through the GFC .
    Such things as school building, money for roads etc, money for every council in the country (twice) for local projects to keep people in work.

    Our unemployment didn’t even reach 6% thanks to Rudd, Swanny, Stevens, Henry and co.

  24. 24 hours ABC news. Finally!

    24 hours of news a day? Of the quality and impartiality currently provided by ABC News?

    Can the bile and hatred be stretched so far?

    What am I saying? Of course it can…

  25. Funny that Sky news has no mention of last night’s CC, have they decided to not report on anything Kev does?
    Last week in their news headlines the mentioned Abbott in 2 or 3 articles every day just about.

  27. The thing about Trioli is the way that she brings every method of communication to bear in getting her message across ➡ tone of voice and facial expression are very big parts of her reports.

    The aural and visual impression of sourness she projects on the rare occasions that she is forced to speak positively of Labor (or even worse, Rudd) would kill a lemon instantly at 200 paces.

  29. Vera – Trioli is a good interviewer when she is being fair. Unfortunately her time in Syd. and Melb. radio pointed out where her loyalties lie politically. She tries hard to hide it at times but the smiles say it all. Big beams when the Libs are getting good headlines, misery and gloom when they’re not.

    She’s no fool (not like the dolt sitting next to her) but if she could just hide her preferences then I’d say she is pretty good.

    ABC2 had a standin while Triioli was on holidays. She appeared to be of Indian descent or similar and her quick and constructive comment on the news and politics was terrific. She was very impressive and very, very fair in her comments on everything. No biase or preference was shown. It was good brekkie watching.

    Don’t get FTA so will miss Kev on Sunrise. But a huge disappointment will be that we’ll miss Julia making mincemeant of Tabbott again. The bloke must be a glutton for punishment cos our Julia is miles to smart for him. So he paid for a Masters in the UK -that doesn’t make him a great intellectual. He’s tabloidy all over.

  30. DaveM @ # 663

    “http://www.smh.com.au/national/the-diary/skys-the-limit-at-the-abc-20100120-mlt5.html

    ABC to launch its own 24 hour news channel, aka ABC4, and “wants it up and running for this year’s federal election”.

    To quote form the above link
    ” “ABC News Breakfast on ABC2 has shown how effectively the ABC can deliver live breaking news, tapping into the full resources of the national broadcaster,” Mr Scott said.

    If they are going to live up to the standard of ABC News Breakfast then this channel will well worth avoiding.

  31. I saw KK on the news showing the prince around Sydney. He was being greeted by the crowd and as was KK, handshakes for both. I’m not prediciting it but she may yet save some of the furniture.

  34. 681 – She’ll save the furniture. She’s a smart woman KK. If the Gov can stay scandal-free for the next 15 months and a few Lib preselections get messy, I think Labor will manage a very respectable result.

  35. BH
    Thanks for that info, I suppose it’d be too much to ask to have Red Kerry on 24hrs a day 😀

    Tony Jones would be fighting Kerry for that one Vera ! 😀

  36. Vera – been in love with KO’B since whenever. His smile gets me.

    Watched the whole of KK’s speech to Prince William on Skynoos yesterday. She is one very impressive lady. I reckon she may just help 2011 from being a complete whitewash.

    She just needs to keep Tripodi and Obeid in their boxes – with the lids SHUT!!

  37. Gary
    I like KK and so do 70% of NSWelshmen apparently. So far the media haven’t been able to trip her up or get the better of her.
    She seems like a tough cookie to me, questions by the media which are repeating Lib BS get the quick firm reply of “No”, cuts them off at the knees 🙂 and they have no comeback.

    Poor old Nath used to get tied in knots by the media

  40. [Tony Jones would be fighting Kerry for that one Vera !]

    But PoM – Jones doesn’t make the heart flutter!! and he wilts in the slitty-eyed glares of Tabbott, poonces in front of JBishop and smiles broadly and encourages Sloppy Joe and his silly untruths.

    Nah – it’s got to be Kerry.

    Just realised it will probably be wall to wall Annabel Crabb and that socalled political reporter, Alison Carrabine. They seem to be the in things at the ABC at the moment.

    I’d rather watch more independent, impartial analysis than wall to wall ABC journos

  42. [“People are disenchanted with (New South Wales Opposition Leader) Barry (O’Farrell), they have reservations about whether he’s got the ticker.]
    From hamish’s article
    O’Barrell won’t like that comment.

  44. What’s with these Libs and their “ticker fixation” anyway?
    Remember the disgusting way the slandered big Kim with the same “no ticker” jibes?

  47. 694 – It’s pretty pithy isn’t it? I meant the ticker jibe tongue in cheek. Honestly I think that ‘not having ticker’ probably means that you are ideologically unmoveable. I mean, you wouldn’t have said that Howard ‘lacked ticker’ but that was because he was a culture warrior. Also being big and kind of cuddly like O’Farrell and Beazley makes you look less lean and mean. Just thoughts.

    695 – Turnbull would start with better points than O’Farrell, but if KK could get under his skin he could implode again. It’s a risk, but Turnbull is undoubtably more talented than the rump that is the NSW Libs. I can’t think of one NSW Lib (maybe Pru Goward) worth their salt.

  49. [I meant the ticker jibe tongue in cheek.]
    Hamish I realised this 😀

    malcolm’s doing OK in that OO poll 😉
    [Would Malcolm Turnbull make a good NSW premier?

    Yes 62.18% (120 votes)
    No 37.82% (73 votes)
    Total votes: 193]

  50. The US system seems almost permanently dysfunctional to me. If the public in liberal Massachusetts can be gulled into either abstaining or voting against the Democrat agenda on Health Care finance and insurance, then the US can probably kiss goodbye to anything useful on the really hard issues of the environment, the budget and the economy. It is extraordinary that such a simple and well-understood thing as extending health insurance to all the population can be stymied by the lies of the politically expedient and the financially self-interested.

    The US may still be the world’s pre-eminent power, but they certainly do not deserve to be. Their star is waning now and may soon resemble all the other failed Empires of the past: once glorious, now a curiosity.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 14 of 20
1 … 13 14 15 … 20