Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.

This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:

newspoll0810

Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).

Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.

Also:

• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.

• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.

• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.

• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. The Libs just don’t like ‘soft and cuddly’ obviously, Vera. They think it means braindead.

    They like that cold, lean and calculating look instead. You know – it can be either the starey, scarey look or the slitty-eyed, mean and nasty one. Not mentioning any names tho!!

  2. Socrates
    #653

    Read your link from quotin you “(left wing) Huffington Post”
    which will come back to , but again so many furfies will adress

    Scott Brown (Repub) ran on ONE polical message , to be th 41st republicon Senator sayin to reduce Dems to 59 Senators so thereby defeating th Obamacare Health Bill

    Brown won a blue ribon State Massachuesets that Obama won by 26% 12 mths ago , thats now tuned into a 31% tunabout So Brown obvously won with sucj a 31% swing becausae voters wanted him to be th 41st one , to block Obamacare Yet some remain in deniel of this obvous

    new bill was going to afect Massachusets curent healthcare , and indeeds afects all States health sytems Now IF Obamacare was not going to afect Masachusets healthcare then Brown Repub would not hav run a single issue campagn against Obamacare and won !!! So Massachusets was clearly a referendom on Obamacare

    To pretend one of bigest upsets in US histary by a 31% swing was NOT caused by Obama and th Dems control Congress poor polisys is a case for only apologists for Obama so biased politcl reality is denied

    and being in deniel instead playin blame games , like its a poor candidate fault or th sytem or media is rose coloring 31%

    This blue Massachusets loss also folows Dems losing by upset losses 2 mths ago Governor rases in both Virginia and New Jersi

    This also follows Ben Nelson Nabraska Senator who deliverd th 60th Health vote AND for it got bribed by Obama/Dems that Washngton would pay extra $’s for Nabraska medicaid VS every OTHER US State Yet nabraska polls show Nelson popuarity is 42% today in a strong Dems State , where he won th seat with 64%

    Now against this evidense apologists deniers say its not Obamacare and not Obama and not Dems control congress

    Now to quot Huff aricle:

    “With a military surge (extra 30,000 troops) in Afghanistan, a denuded health insurance bill limping through Congress, Bush-era detainee policies reinforced, a deflated climate summit, and a windfall year for bankers (these scavangars still get 20 milion plus bonus’s) , among other things, it’s almost ludicrous to claim that the new administration is run by a gang of lefties.”

    what this writer does not realize is he just quotd th VERY reasons & polisys WHY both Obama & Dems congress got beat in Dems Massachusets , and New Jersi , and Virginia ! and why srtong Dems state nabraska Senator Nelson has lost 22% suport (plus th 10% unemploy) What Obamacare did was highlite th othr polisy failures

    So what Huff did was spin turn these ‘negatives’ into a positv Now if one listens to editor andiatta hufington on TV , she says diff from th article and closer to my take but added some lilies , but she DOES blames Obama & congres Wahinton & NOT th local candidate she a blue glued Obama suporter by th ways

    Now people can write lame excuses all they likes apologising for Obama and Dems congress , but they ar not helping Obama nor th Dems reely as politcal realities say diferent Voters always vote for reasons against bluee ribon candidats

    I repeat i do hope both Obama and Dems congrss learn from these defeats to reduce Dems Senate losses this Nov yr to only ND and NV as there limits how many Senate Repubs Dems Senate can reely negotate with

    ps/ USA has not oz like defamaton laws , so in USA you do find terible polarisaton with newspapers/TV from biased ‘left’ like th ‘daily koz’ (who ’38’ rites sometimes for) and MSNBC , to biasd right ‘evenig standard’ and Fox News These all lie & distort , and twisty to bias push ‘there side’ , and ar great for th extreme politcaly biased left or right to beleive in , ditto th OO here , we just dont hav a ‘left equiv in oz like US do

  6. Ron, you seem to be on top of things. What’s wrong with Obamacare? Genuine question. I have little detailed knowledge of its contents or its many effects on their systems of health.

  9. vera,

    Agree with you at 696, but I have a vague memory that Kim was actually the first to use the word. Something like “…you’ve got to have the ticker.” or some such line.

    I don’t think it was part of any statement of importance, but it was seized upon by the Great Unprincipled and done to death…

  10. Gary

    brief answr for moment one eg

    th ‘left’ do not like Obamacare polisy bacause it is not universal coverage for all , per US 2009 Census vs Dems own figures of covarage (which ‘may be’ overstatd) there ar 16 mi8lion americons not coverd and a furthar 15 milio0n underinsurd (priv health too dear)

    and all of those mainly ar poor and workin familys

    anothr example Gary from th ‘left’ in USA , th most progresive liberal and ex DNC chairman and ex 2004 DEms primary candidate , a guy with reel ‘left’ creditals , howard Dean said on TV twise that i saw in intrerviews quote “dump it , reject it”

    fair dinkum th new Hrealthcare Bill would be somewhat similar in ways being ‘privat insuranse based to what Howard wuld hav introduse into oz (if he could hav got away with it) , so thats no recomend , thinks i went abit more than brief there but not long

  11. #681 – Gary Bruce

    [ greeted by the crowd and as was KK, handshakes for both. I’m not prediciting it but she may yet save some of the furniture.]

    I agree with you.
    Your statement is NOT a prediction.
    It is merely an expression of HOPE
    🙂

  14. Kersebleptes
    You could be right about the “no ticker” origin, all I remember is it being used against Kim on such things as the war on terror etc to great effect by the Libs.

  15. #699
    [ Would Malcolm Turnbull make a good NSW premier?
    Yes 62.18% (120 votes)
    No 37.82% (73 votes)
    Total votes: 193 ]

    How many of the 120 “yes” voters are in the paid employment of Turnbull or his sponsors? Remember, Turnbull is “internet savvy”. 😆 🙂

  17. Gary

    need to read my 3713 ps/ with #710 for context pls

    Now to CC:

    Am i waitin for all th Greens posters who critisised rudd’s ETS 5% target , when th Greens proposal is now a ZERO target

    “The (Greens) two-year scheme would impose a carbon price of $23 a tonne on greenhouse polluters.

    The Greens’ new proposal represents SOMETHING !!! of a compromise from the party. It does NOT NOT include a target for reducing emissions by 2020, which is a contentious issue”

    well , i’m waitin for your outrage at Brown having zero targets , or do we ‘spin’ ?

  18. Ron
    Bob Brown is trying to get back in the picture. They are totally irrelevant and as gary says all Labor needs is the ETS to get rejected again to take up a bit of time so a DD can be held close to when the election is due anyway.
    B Brown voted down the ETS in the split second the greens actually were relevant. missed their chance to be seen as heros giving Aust an ETS to show world leadership on CC

  21. [The last vote when the 2 Lib senators crossed the floor would have passed with Greens support]

    Exactly – but expect the Mung Bean Collective to come down upon you and question your parentage, mental state and every other form of personal attack known to mankind in rtheir defence of St Bob. 🙂

  23. [frank, they don’t scare me, got my weed killer at the ready :D]

    Note that the latest member of their cult hasn’t posted after Bilbo gave him a good bollocking over attacking Amigo Ron. 🙂

  25. Frank #721

    [ but expect the Mung Bean Collective to come down upon you and question your parentage, mental state and every other form of personal attack known to mankind ]

    I hope Frank you do not base your predictions on the behaviour of others based on your own standards of behaviour.

    Frank – # 608

    [ More like he needs professional help – his unhealthy obsession with the Royal Family, Religion and the NSW Premier and his dog borders on someting quite sinister if he is not dealt with by an appropriate Health Professional ]

    No doubt some people would stoop low and describe Frank as an egit. I won’t on this occasion.

  26. It’s OUR ABC afterall. Good on Anutie and our money. As long Trigger Triiiioli doesnt hog the air wave and do something with her bloody hair. Ah, more of Leigh, yes yes and yes from MorningLine to MidLine to Lateline. Happy days are here again:

    [ABC announces 24-hour TV news channel to compete with – AUSTRALIA’S national broadcaster is launching a free-to-air 24-hour news channel to compete with pay TV’s Sky news.

    Managing director Mark Scott, who outlined an aggressive expansion agenda for the taxpayer-funded broadcaster internationally and online, said today the channel will provide live continuous news coverage of major breaking stories from Australia and around the world.

    Mr Scott also recently demanded more money from the government to expand the international networks in a move some believe was also motivated by a need to shore up the broadcaster’s lucrative contract for the Australia network which Sky news has previously sought and lost……………. A promotional video to spruik the new channel is spearheaded by the ABC’s Leigh Sales, Tony Eastley and new Fairfax recruit Annabel Crabb..]

  28. Hamish Coffee @ # 719

    The ETS still wouldn’t have had the numbers if the Greens had voted for the original one.

    Why do the Greens always try and hide the fact that they voted against the introduction of an ETS when their vote could have got it up and running.

    Typical Greens prevarication.

    vera @ # 729

    The last vote when the 2 Lib senators crossed the floor would have passed with Greens support

    Vera, I heard this announcement on the ABC local radio (Sydney 702) this morning along with a news grab from Senator Miles. She said that this policy, if introduced would reduce our carbon an emission by 2% (well less than Labors 5%) but her main point was the big polluters would get nothing back from the scheme.

    It appears that the Greens are more interested in kicking those employees that work in carbon intense industries than in reducing emissions.

  29. This article explains why Obama is the favourite to win in 2012. First he is an incumbent, who tend to win 2/3 of the time, but secondly you need to consider the ‘policies’ of the Republicans:
    [Throughout, there’s been a consistent chorus (from Republicans): Deficits are too high, but we must cut taxes (a move that will increase the deficit), and we must not cut Medicare spending in any way, shape, or form (a move that will increase the deficit), and we must not raise taxes (a move that would narrow the deficit). The Bush-era Medicare prescription-drug benefit funded entirely by deficit spending is fine, but a broader package to expand health insurance coverage that generates long-term fiscal savings would be disastrous. The bailouts were wrong but so are proposals to recoup bailout funds through taxes on banks.]
    http://www.slate.com/id/2242055/

    Of course the Liberal ‘policies’ here have basically been exactly the same, which is one reason why Rudd is a red hot favourite to win a second term.

  30. [Is there no end of radical movements selling out and becoming very conservative and mainstream?]
    WTF? Why can’t they have a racing carnival? That just shows that what once needed to be a radical group is now accepted as part of society.

    Is it very conservative for women to vote and work?

  32. I watched the Greens press conference on APAC and thought, well, too late, of course, but at least they’re acknowledging that they need to compromise a bit.

    Then came the ‘small print’ – the deal will depend on the government agreeing to stop compensation to ‘the big polluters’ etc etc.

    So the Greens appear to be trying to get themselves out of the corner they’ve painted themselves in, by putting up an idea which sounds reasonable but attaching baggage to it they know the government won’t accept, so that they can go to the election saying that they tried to negotiate with the government but….and avoid responsibility for blocking the CPRS in December.

    Of course, I’ll be very happy if I’m proven wrong and something gets up in Feb.

  34. [vera @ # 729

    The last vote when the 2 Lib senators crossed the floor would have passed with Greens support

    Vera, I heard this announcement on the ABC local radio (Sydney 702) this morning along with a news grab from Senator Miles. She said that this policy, if introduced would reduce our carbon an emission by 2% (well less than Labors 5%) but her main point was the big polluters would get nothing back from the scheme.

    It appears that the Greens are more interested in kicking those employees that work in carbon intense industries than in reducing emissions.]

    Excellent point – and they are living in a fools paradise if they can replace those jobs with “Green Friendly” ones.

  36. Ratsars@735:
    [In my post @ # 728 I referred to Vere’s post @ # 729]

    Talented you may be, Ratsars, but if you can predict events like that, I’d like to know the winner for next year’s Melbourne cup!

  40. vera
    Posted Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    “The last vote when the 2 Lib senators crossed the floor would have passed with Greens support”

    G’days to you Vera , yep corect

    BUT ALSO Greens may wish to forgets but for ONE week th Libs publicly said THEY ALSO wuld vote for th ETS , but Brown Miln with Baraby & Minchan ganged up and used a whole week of Senate time with Amendments & queston stallin , so that Turnbull could get rolld and cc denier Abbott put in

    so th Greens twice hav efective rejected th ETS in Nov , (plus th original time it was intrudused

    PLUS making it a carbon tax is a cheap one liner stunt for 10 sec TV grabs , but there is no cap and trade that you need for investment ,

    plus it undermines Rudds ETS to public but BTW most countrys agree with an ETS,

    plus a carbon tax like cigs tax & beer tax (like ) ar for Govt revenue , not redused use , all that hapens is th consumer pays more so why would not electicity its a ‘monololy , thats why a cap is neded and can not hav one with a carbon tax , only an ets

    plus it gets Greens out of Abbots firing line cause if anyone beleived Abbott and some will a 5% ETS is a huge tax that Abbott accuses Rudd of then what votes would Abbott hav talkenn from th Greens with a Abbott claimd Greens 25% tax , a cheap stunt selling out CC mitigaton in oz and avoiding Abbott at CC expense

  41. Don @ # 736

    Talented you may be, Ratsars, but if you can predict events like that, I’d like to know the winner for next year’s Melbourne cup!

    You and me both Don.

    JJJ

    Typing is not my long suite and neither is proof reading where I tend to read what I believe should be there so for my sins I am prone to be correcting typos all the time. Once I even mistyped my name on a letter and even when asked to read and reread it a couple of times I could not see it till it was actually pointed out to me.

    So alas, you can see that I am cursed with forever fixing up these silly mistakes for in my own way I am just as bad as Ron when it come to the written word.

  47. Ron
    Did you see Obama’s comments on the election loss?
    [As he absorbed the stinging blow from voters, which sent shock waves through the Democratic Party in a key election year, Obama admitted that his need to tackle a flurry of crises had weakened his bond with US voters.

    “If there’s one thing that I regret this year is that we were so busy just getting stuff done and dealing with the immediate crises that were in front of us that I think we lost some of that sense of speaking directly to the American people,” Obama told ABC News.

    The president said that he had assumed that if he concentrated on making good policy decisions, voters would understand them, but instead they had become consumed by a “feeling of remoteness and detachment” from Washington.

    “That I do think is a mistake of mine,” Obama said, diagnosing a mood of anger and frustration in the United States over the grinding and lingering impact of the worst recession for decades.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/obama-admits-mistake-after-shock-election-loss-20100121-mnic.html

  50. #731
    [727- Does the gay movement want to be radical? Did it used to be?]

    Once again you have missed my point. This is a race meeting in support of the Mardi Gras festival. The Mardi Gras festival is the celebration of an event that place in 1978 (I think that was the year). That first event was very radical. It resulted in people being bashed by the Police (the instruments of the state).

    Far from being radical nowadays, the Mardi Gras is a celebration of what? Being mainstream. I don’t see why one should celebrate being mainstream – that’s a sheer nonsense.

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