Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.

This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:

newspoll0810

Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).

Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.

Also:

• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.

• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.

• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.

• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  2. Obama’s toast and Rudd’s on the Slide.

    Looks like this is going to be a bad year for Labor Hacks and Demorats “More of the Sames” everywhere.

  4. don

    Freudian slip. I must have identified with the carbon tax idea as I’ve been supporting that over an ETS for a while now, along with the world’s leading expert in CC, James Hansen (whose new book arrived today 😀 )

  6. vera

    I’m very disappointed that anyone would fall for Ron’s mythematics which perversely pretend that Obama’s 17% by 2020 based on 2005 is less than Rudd’s 5% based on 2000.

    You must be unbelievably gullible or willfully blind.

    Ron spent about a year trying to make us understand how our maths was wRONg and that Hillary was going to win the Democrat primary. Guess who was wRONg.

    I believe any comment Ron makes about mathematics is the PB Gold Standard for wRONg.

  7. Diog
    The only one wRONg is you.
    The percents have been done to death on PB and not only by Ron. You just can’t admit to Obama’s 3% compared to Rudd’s 5 to 25%

  8. [You must be unbelievably gullible or willfully blind]

    An apt comment coming from someone who doesn’t understand what 5 to 25% means

  12. Same old, same old around here.
    In politics you need to understand your enemy: those suggesting the Greens secretly appove of Wong’s token ETS and wanted it passed have blinkers covering their eyes. The Greens don’t need to “take responsibility” for blocking it – the Greens and Mr X can be proud that they prevented it.
    Lets get real here: On GW the regime in Australia whether COALition or ALP are the BAD GUYS!! Do no be fooled:

    [ During the summit, the chief negotiator of the G77 group of 132 poor countries at Copenhagen, Lumumba Di-Aping, appealed to Australians to see through Rudd’s dishonesty on climate change.

    “The message that the Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd is giving to his people, his citizens, is a fabrication, it’s fiction, it does not relate to the facts because his actions are climate change scepticism in action”, Di-Aping told ABC radio’s AM on December 16. ]

    But we’ve all been pounded with so much propoganda that many think Rudd is helping. The conservatives wish to paint the government as going too far on CC for obvious reasons, and the ALP likewise likes to pretend its doing something. Thus, the charade goes on.

    [ Indian environment minister Jairam Ramesh denounced Australia’s aggressive attempts to shift more of the burden for emissions cuts onto poor countries. He told media on December 16: “Australia is sort of the Ayatollah of the single track.” ]
    http://www.greenleft.org.au/2010/822/42295
    The Indian environment minister and the chief negotiator of the G77 are singaling us out as trouble makers and the government has the nerve to suggest its being constructive.

    I have not seen the fine print yet but I am glad to see the Greens have put forward a carbon tax.

    Ratsars
    [She said that this policy, if introduced would reduce our carbon an emission by 2% (well less than Labors 5%) but her main point was the big polluters would get nothing back from the scheme.]
    The Greens new bill is only a stop gap to last two years. My guess, (and its only a guess) is that the 2% figure would be if nothing happened after those two years are up, whereas the ALP’s plan gets to 5% by 2020. So it is compairing apples with oranges.

  13. Dario

    I’ll believe we get more than 5% when I see it. At the moment, if the ETS was passed, we’d have 5%. Obama’s can be increased as well from 17%.

  14. This was written mid 2009 and before the turnbull compromise but I doubt Obama’s policy has changed much.
    [Climate Institute policy and research director Erwin Jackson compares the 950-page US draft with Australian ETS proposals:

    * The US will cut emissions by zero to 15 per cent by 2020 (including deforestation). Australia will cut emissions by five to 25 per cent.

    * The US will not make trade-exposed polluters pay under the ETS until 2025. Australia will make them pay for between five and 34 per cent of their permits, and is more open to making them pay for more.

    * The US will give out plenty of free permits – 85 per cent of the total – but force recipients to use some on energy efficiency and renewable energy. Australia will only give out 25 per cent of permits for free, thereby making participants pay up-front for climate change.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/australia-could-adopt-ets-from-us-20090527-bnia.html

  17. Where is Herr Doktor? the Bandits of Peiping are doing OK. The USA is entering dangerously phase that she could catch the Japanese disease of pro-long economic stagnation and political leadership paralysis, eg: Obamacare. The only saviour for USA is Hollywood.

    [LONDON – CHINA could overtake the United States to become the world’s largest economy as early as 2020, a top business consultancy said on Thursday, underlining the ‘seismic change’ in global economic power.

    PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) also said in its report that by 2030 the top 10 world economies could be China, followed by the United States, India, Japan, Brazil, Russia, Germany, Mexico, France and Britain.

    The current 10 largest economies, according to 2008 data from the International Monetary Fund, are the United States, Japan, China, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Russia, Spain and Brazil.

    ‘These projects suggest that China could be the largest economy in the world as early as 2020 and is likely to be some way ahead of the US by 2030,’ John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PWC, said in the report.

    ‘India could grow even faster than China after 2020, however, and will also move rapidly up the global GDP (gross domestic product) rankings’ because of its younger and faster growing population as opposed to China, he added.

    The report also pointed to an increasing share of global GDP taken up by China and India, compared to the United States and the European Union. — AFP]

  18. I was going to a comment that the only thing stopping Turnbull from starting his own party and splitting the Libs is that would actually give NSW Labor a chance in 2011.
    However, running for Vaucluse (or where ever) becoming Premier of a NSW Liberal govt. then leaving to form his own party and destroying the Libs (at least in NSW) fits his persona.

  20. [I’ll believe we get more than 5% when I see it. At the moment, if the ETS was passed, we’d have 5%. Obama’s can be increased as well from 17%.]
    Why is it so hard to believe Rudd would increase the 5% and yet you are so certain that Obama would increase his?
    just your dislike of rudd and hero worship of Obama?
    And you were accusing me of being gullible!

  22. Vera

    “The president said that he had assumed that if he concentrated on making good policy decisions, voters would understand them”

    so its th US voters fault , polisys ar fine

  24. [They are enough to put hairs on your eyeballs.]

    What’s wRONg with hairy eyeballs?

    vera

    [Why is it so hard to believe Rudd would increase the 5% and yet you are so certain that Obama would increase his]

    Please indicate to me where I have said I am certain Obama could increase his. I doubt even Obama’s ETS will get passed, let alone increased.

    Finns

    [Is the Pope a Catholic?]

    We’ve been through this. Technically the Pope doesn’t have to be a Catholic.

  27. [No-one knew what cribbage was]

    Gus, is that the male’s version of cleavage? If so, i also dont where it is. Do tell.

    No wonder we are crazy for Hill:

  32. Dario

    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    Dario “Ron and I were discussing the 5% minimum versus Obama’s 17%. Try to keep up.”

    There has been NO discussion by Diogenes and me at all today about that

    Diogenes ,
    you wilfuly ar diverting th thread to a red herring on Obama’s 17% on USA 2005 which equals 3% on 1990 levels prooved , lto get thread AWAY from a Greens sell out CC polisy that has NO target !

    yet youse complained about Rudds 5% to 25% polisy as not enuf , and yet Greens now a nil target polisy

  37. Oh goody – looking forward to all those retractions in the OO and other places about Abbott making it a contest….

    What do you mean, they won’t happen?

  38. Ron

    [to get thread AWAY from a Greens sell out CC polisy that has NO target !]

    That’s as stupid as saying that the policy of having a tax on alcopops doesn’t have a target.

    The carbon tax is an interim measure anyway.

    Get with the program, Ron.

  41. Z@789:

    [while looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens rising (10%, unchanged), ]

    Curses! You beat me to it.

    I think there must be a green rat in the ranks at Morgan, spinning like a catherine wheel.

  43. Vera ,

    as you know World per th IPPCCC a 25% cut on eah Country’s 1990 levels

    next time diogenes falsely mentons Obama’s 17% , you can post this link:
    but make sure he does not red herring about oz , stick him to HIS 17% figure VS this

    “World Resouces institute :

    Comparison of 2020 Targets and Ranges Pledged by Developed Countries
    Percent Below 1990 Levels By 2020 Percent Below 2005 Levels By 2020

    Country,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1990 levels,,,,,2005 levels
    Treatment Of LULUC,,,,,,Low,,,High,,,,,,Low,,,High

    U.S.Excluding,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-3%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-17%
    Including,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-5%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-17% ”

    oz ar ofering 5%-25% under oz 1990 levels VS obama 3% to 5% under US 1990 levels

    http://www.wri.org/publication/comparability-of-annexi-emission-reduction-pledges/comparison-table

  44. Diogenes

    th subject you do not talk about is TODAYS GREEN polisy , with no targets

    you hav critisised Rudds 5% to 25% target as too low
    now you can not justify a worser Greens target , nil !!

    Greens just sold out cc mitigaton for popular votes
    so do not wigle with embarasment , wear it

  45. Grog@792:

    [oh geez, how’s that preview box comming along???!!]

    This, from the bloke who didn’t know why he needed one!

    William, if you are listening,

    oh geez, how’s that preview box comming along???!!

    We must be patient, Grog, all will come in the fullness of time.

    Then we have to start agitating for a help summary so we can copy and paste things like smileys, bold, italic, quotes….

    And an edit function!!!

    (trust me Grog, we both need an edit function)

    Squeaky wheels of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your misspokes!

  50. [U.S.Excluding,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-3%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-17%
    Including,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-5%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-17%]
    Ron, thanks for reminding us 🙂

    Notice how Obamaites keep quoting the high end 17% and in the same breath Rudd’s lower range of 5% in comparison?
    They wan’t it both ways.

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