Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.

This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:

newspoll0810

Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).

Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.

Also:

• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.

• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.

• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.

• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

Comments Page 17 of 20
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  1. Aussieguru @ 797
    Good thing Estimable Marsupial alerted us to Morgan poll, or we’d never know it existed in any of the MSM, including the ABC. It’s one of my prime motivations to read all comments everyday, even though I don’t have time to post myself.

    Other motivations are the pearls of wisdom from William Bowe and, of course, the Amigos. 🙂

  3. Well, blow me down. I just passed along a message from the International Bark Beetle Collective supporting Chinese climate change policies, thoughtfully done in Chinese, and stating that the bark beetles were looking forward to Eurasia, and some subversive has changed it all to question marks. Chiz.

  4. Possum Comitatus
    Posted Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    “New Morgan 58.5/41.5 or 60/40 depending on your pref allocations.
    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4463/

    Also explains the different figures we had for last phone poll – as we thought, the 56/44 was respondent allocated prefs and the 54.5/45.5 was 2007 election allocated prefs.”

    yes , but after you said Crikey got a Morgons media release based on th 2007 electon pref method with i bleive from memory a higher Rudd 2PP , i queried in post th not rite action of Gary Morgon posting a 54.5-45.5 on his web site and per his web site calculator it was also 54.5 -45.5 VS issuing media releses to Crikey pressume othrs saying a higher % figure being more credible vs othr pollsters Gary Morgon should us same method on his site and calculastor and in his media releas That how i remebrer it from few weeks ago

  5. The MSM won’t mention the Morgan Poll 58.5/41.5 but the SMH today had an article on another Morgan poll saying NZ consumer confidence was at 3 yr high

  6. Vera

    hi vera , re post thanks

    your post will reeely please diogenes WITH th headings , cause no way away from fact th 17% is UNDER th USA 2005 heading ,
    but only 3% -5% UNDER th VIP IPPCCC one th USA 1990 levels !

    Country,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1990 levels,,,,,2005 levels
    Treatment Of LULUC,,,,,,Low,,,High,,,,,,Low,,,High

    U.S.Excluding,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-3%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-17%
    Including,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-5%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-17% ”

    oz ar ofering 5%-25% under oz 1990 levels VS obama 3% to 5% under US 1990 levels

  8. Boerwar@803:

    [and some subversive has changed it all to question marks. Chiz.]

    Mate, if Google can’t cope with china, how can the rest of us mere mortals make headway?

    You probably offended a middle level official, are you sure the characters were kosher?

  9. Vera@805:

    [the SMH today had an article on another Morgan poll saying NZ consumer confidence was at 3 yr high]

    Vera, the kiwis need all the help they can get. Maybe lamb futures were up or something.

  10. vera

    I’m well aware that Obama’s targets are very poor, although not as bad as Rudd’s minimum target. Obama’s will give a 3% reduction by 2020 based on 1990. Rudd’s will give a 15% increase in emissions by 2020 based on 1990 with the 5% target which would improve to an 11% cut by 2020 with the 25% target.

    Both targets are much too low.

    We need a 20% cut by 2020 based on 1990 figures from all developed countries as an absolute minimum.

  11. Jon Stewart nails it. How can you explain this? What is wrong with the Democrats?

    [If this lady loses, the health care reform bill that the beloved late senator considered his legacy, will die. And the reason it will die… is because if Coakley loses, Democrats will only have an 18 vote majority in the Senate, which is more than George W. Bush ever had in the Senate when did whatever the f#@$ he wanted to.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/19/jon-stewart-gets-fed-up-d_n_427917.html

  12. Diog
    no matter how many times you post that wRONg stuff I know Ron’s are right 😛

    U.S.Excluding,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-3%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-17%
    Including,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-5%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-17% ”

    Rudd’s 5%-25%
    not an increase of 15%

  13. So the Greens have given up on targets, lets just impose an arbitrary price on carbon. What a load of codswallop.

    Time for a bit of blowtorch to the belly. 😉

  15. vera ,

    so so diog does not repost your post implyin USA range is 3-17 or 5-17 as no headings

    you know diog is reely a Dentist , puting things words into peoples mouths

    Country,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1990 levels,,,,,2005 levels
    Treatment Of LULUC,,,,,,Low,,,High,,,,,,Low,,,High

    U.S.Excluding,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-3%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-17%
    Including,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-5%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-17% ”

    no one gonna forget these figures

  16. [So the Greens have given up on targets, lets just impose an arbitrary price on carbon. What a load of codswallop.

    Time for a bit of blowtorch to the belly. 😉 ]

    They truly REALLY want a return of a Conservative Government so they can look like they’re acutally relevant – hence Queen Adele supping from the same Goblet as King Colin. 🙂

  17. Rua

    “Time for a bit of blowtorch to the belly.”

    we had mths of getting told Rudds 5%-25% was no good , it had to be 25% and no lower

    where ar these peoples now

    well Greens nil , is quite below there stated 25% target that jthey all said as did Bob Brown critising Kevin rudd for past 12 mths just HAD to be 25% rite now so we got told

  19. Bob Brown and Christine Milne looked so sad, in front of The Greens triangles, trying to rationalise why they have done the largest policy back-flip, with pike, in the entire sad history of the party.

    Surely our Green PB friends can “spin” this?? 😛

  20. vera

    A 5% cut by 2020 in Oz (based on 2000 which is what the ETS uses) equates to a 15% increase in GHG emissions by 2020 based on 1990 figures as Rudd has excluded agriculture. It’s all in the graph that Ron kindly linked for us.

  21. [So the Greens have given up on targets, lets just impose an arbitrary price on carbon. What a load of codswallop.]

    There has been a lot of discussion by experts in climate change over the last 12 months and many conclude that this is a better way to go than an ETS.

    If people here haven’t been following it, it just shows that aren’t very interested in Climate Change.

  22. Diog

    So you are in favour of a Govt. mandated carbon price over a market induced one? You carbon tax junkies want it both ways. 😛

  23. [Bob Brown and Christine Milne looked so sad, in front of The Greens triangles, trying to rationalise why they have done the largest policy back-flip, with pike, in the entire sad history of the party.

    Surely our Green PB friends can “spin” this?? 😛 ]

    Don’ worry, THM has on the previous page.

    But expect a couple of new posters shortly armed with “Talking Points” 🙂

  24. [Other motivations are the pearls of wisdom from William Bowe and, of course, the Amigos. ]

    Hemingway, shhhhhh, dont tell them for whom the money was paid.

  26. Rua
    “Surely our Green PB friends can “spin” this?? ”

    diogenes aproach AND Bob Browns is to PRETEND he and othr Greens hav not said for 12 mths that a 25% cut was th min

    Diogenes you and your Greens mates hav no credibilty on CC to try and backpeddle now saying nil targets ar ok

    so all this pro carbon tax bit is JUST anothr red herring from what youse all and Bob brown hav said

    Greens wrigling is not a good look Frank

  28. Ron

    I know that you have trouble with the idea that someone isn’t married to a Party and support it blindly.

    People can actually make their own mind up about something independently of what a Party says.

    I am not a Green. I often don’t even vote for them.

  29. Diogenes

    and how does any of those red hering links you posted suport you and Bob Brown abandonin quote a hav to be “25% target as minimum” , and now a nil target

    you just keep avoiding what you , othr Greens and bob Brown hav said for 12 mths , stay with th reality

  30. Diog

    So lets spend another 2 years talking about the perfect solution, maybe we can have more conferences, more reports, more stuf from BNC.

  31. [Once again you’re being racist. Redneck.]

    Surely William will issue a warning regarding this?

    I’m being called a racist for saying Obama’s toast… jesus christ.

  32. [Diog

    So lets spend another 2 years talking about the perfect solution, maybe we can have more conferences, more reports, more stuf from BNC.]

    Which emit emissions from flying, all those trees being chopped down so they can print the reports etc 🙂

    Unlless St Bob is willing to swim in a kayak and use smoke signals to save the environment 🙂

  33. […all those trees being chopped down so they can print the reports etc]

    Nah Garnaut was printed on super dooper imported Italian recycled paper. 🙁

  34. [ …all those trees being chopped down so they can print the reports etc

    Nah Garnaut was printed on super dooper imported Italian recycled paper. 🙁 ]

    What Silvio’s personal Toilet Paper supply ? 🙂

  37. Kev could down on Australia’s emmissions of 5% by 2020 by not using the private commonwealth jet every 20 minutes for a oversea’s junket.

    I know it will be a hard target to achieve, but Kev must take up the 40 day Flight Famine for the good of the Earth.

  39. [Kev could down on Australia’s emmissions of 5% by 2020 by not using the private commonwealth jet every 20 minutes for a oversea’s junket.]

    Plus, Truthy how many undesireables may be stow aways, you never know. Kev could be sneaking people into Oz in his plane.

  40. [Hey Frank

    Do you reckon the Green PB Bretheren are off having meetings to decide what Bob actually said today?]

    Yeah, with the excepetion of THM and Young Pete – The Green Mafia have been eerily silent 🙂

  44. Vera @ # 745

    Ratsars
    we like you just the way you are

    bugger the numbers!

    Thanks Vera

    I hope I have the numbers tight this time.

    The problem was that I was trying to do too much at once.

    We have a new kitten that loves clawing it way up my legs and that tends to distract one.

    I wanted to wring it neck but she who must be obeyed would ring mine.

  45. [Mr Frangopoulos also claimed the new channel would violate the ABC charter to only provide services that commercial broadcasters could not or would not provide to the public.]

    Bollocks, people have to pay for Sly News.

  46. Those greenies might be all phoning a Lib to get Bob’s bill passed 😛
    [If the Greens were to win over the government and independent senator Nick Xenophon to their scheme, they would still be one vote short in the Senate.

    Senator Brown hoped an opposition senator would cross the floor or Family First senator Steve Fielding could vote yes.]

    The govt should tell them to eff off and then ask them how it feels!
    Do unto others and all that 😉
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/greens-propose-early-bird-carbon-scheme-20100121-mn1o.html

  47. Diogenes @ # 746

    The Greens Carbon Tax looks like an excellent policy but I can’t see it passing Senate, even if Labor supports it.

    Could you please explain this statement?

    This morning I heard Senator Milne on the radio saying that it would reduce emissions by 2%.

    Now the last time I looked 2 was well short of 5 which was Labor’s minimum.

    The big talking point for Milne was that there would be no money going to carbon intense industries.

    This to me this is a blatant attack on those who work in those industries with the end result that they will most likely move overseas if they can, reducing jobs available in Australia and most likely no affecting the overall amount of GHG entering the system

    In summery it would appear that the Greens are now preposing a target of 2% maximum but they rejected a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 25% from Labor.

    All I can say is that the greens are more interested in playing politics that addressing the problem

  48. [We have a new kitten that loves clawing it way up my legs and that tends to distract one.]
    Ratsars LOL
    Have you got a friend who plays cricket? You could borrow his box to protect your valuables in 🙂

  49. ruawake #819

    Bob Brown and Christine Milne looked so sad, in front of The Greens triangles, trying to rationalise why they have done the largest policy back-flip, with pike, in the entire sad history of the party.

    But not that they’d realised Rudd wasn’t going to call a DD so they could increase their Senate numbers; public support for a CPRS was rapidly declining; the Greens were the party which voted with the Coalition & Indie Climate Deniers to defeat the CPRS, so Oz has NO policy in place, and that Rudd could go to the next election with the slogan Labour is the only party prepared to support a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

    All in all, not a bad start to a challenge for the Meg Lees Championship trophy!

  50. The Greens have to be careful with this one.

    As I read it, they want to look like they’re doing something, advancing a ‘frontline’ policy which sounds good but with fine print they know the government won’t wear.

    The government, however, will be able to do as ratsars has above, and point to the job destroying nature of the blanket no compensation clauses.

    So the Greens might face going to an election not only blocking action on a CPRS but having the “Greens = loss of jobs” mantra reinforced.

    Although I don’t see that mantra as necessarily being true, there’s a big perception out there in voter land that that is so, and the refusal to compensate the ‘big polluters’ and thus keep them viable will reinforce that.

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