The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.
This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:
Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).
Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.
Also:
• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.
• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.
• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.
• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.
Ruawake , Alex (Mr who) mystery illness is explained in the local rag .advertiser today.
My prediction is we will have a new member at the next election. It will be a lib of course,The suuny coast will not swing that much,but might be fun to watch.
Dear Bob and Christine, take a deep breath and vote with the Govt. in Feb to pass the CPRS. Come on you know 5% is better than 2%. 😉
Frank Calabrese #842
A bit like a “War” version of Don’t start a Royal Commission unless you’re sure of the outcome Wot! 😳 😆
suuny= sunshine coast, coolum which is the jewel in the crown so to speak.
Ratsars
It’s just an interim measure. The carbon tax at $20 is for 2 years. In two years, it will cut emissions by 2%. It would start in July 2010 and end in 2012. It would then be reviewed.
The ETS would achieve an INCREASE in GHG emissions by 2012.
It is actually based on Ross Garnaut’s suggestion. Remember him, Rudd’s Climate Change adviser until he suggested that Rudd should actually do something about CC, after which he was unceremoniously dumped.
I really don’t know whether you people don’t bother to read policy or rely on Ron to do your legwork or just don’t care about what anyone other than Labor says.
http://greens.org.au/node/5624
noidea #851
I thought they were going to have to blast Alex S out! Doesn’t Dear Fiona regard that seat as hers?
Diogenes @ # 746
The Greens Carbon Tax looks like an excellent policy but I can’t see it passing Senate, even if Labor supports it.
Could you please explain this statement?
This morning I heard Senator Milne on the radio saying that it would reduce emissions by 2%.
Now the last time I looked 2 was well short of 5 which was Labor’s minimum.
The big talking point for Milne was that there would be no money going to carbon intense industries.
This to me this is a blatant attack on those who work in those industries with the end result that they (the industries that is) will most likely move overseas if they can, reducing jobs available in Australia and most likely no affecting the overall amount of GHG entering the system
In summery it would appear that the Greens are now preposing a target of 2% maximum but they rejected a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 25% from Labor.
All I can say is that the greens are more interested in playing politics that addressing the problem
Does anyone know why the Greens have fixed their carbon price at $20 on 2005 figures – why don’t they just say $23, or whatever the equivalent is now?
Just wondering….
SNIP: Name-calling deleted – The Management.
No mention in that article, Diog, of the ‘no compensation for the big polluters’ proviso, which is a rather big omission.
Do they recognise that it’s not a vote winner for them, and are trying to hide it?
OZ POL Fiona is very happy i think being a minnow in a wine glass. In the federal arena she would suffer badly.
(SNIP: Offensive comment deleted – The Management). How can they be against the permanent solution (an ETS) but in favour of a half baked intermin solution which would achieve even less?
z
That’s probably why they went with the fairly low rate of $20 per ton. Also, they could use the compensation matter as a bargaining tool. Rudd could get them to give ground on that. At least you understand what’s going on. I really wonder about some of your comrades.
[No mention in that article, Diog, of the ‘no compensation for the big polluters’ proviso, which is a rather big omission.
Do they recognise that it’s not a vote winner for them, and are trying to hide it?]
Now if Kev made such an announcement with that ommission, then St Bob and Mother Milne would be shouting from the rooftops how “the Govt are hiding the truth from the electorate”
I can hear the sounds of various kitchen items being used here 🙂
OzPol Tragic sorry i spelt your name wrong
Ratsars #844
Perhaps the new Master of the Household just wants to write the sequel to Paul Gallico’s The Silent Miaow!
I’m not (yet!) dismissing the Greens policy. At least it would get things moving.
I’m worried about the fine print.
The omission from their media release, which I referred to above, of a key provision of their proposed legislation, suggests the Greens aren’t being totally honest here.
So happy if it happens, but dubious at the moment.
This one caught me off-guard: Sen. John McCain’s wife, Cindy, and their daughter, Meghan, asked to pose with duct tape across their mouths for photos in support of a gay rights group, which is organising protests against the California anti-gay marriage Proposition that passed in 2008.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/mccain-family-at-odds-over-gay-marriage-20100121-mnrh.html?autostart=1
Diog
watched the media conference and basically felt optimistic about it, until the ‘no compensation’ thing came up. Hope they’re willing to move on that one.
Would have preferred this kind of gesture before the vote last year, then we might have something in place now.
Perhaps they’ve finally realised how silly it was for them to oppose the CPRS then and are face saving? If so, hopefully they’ll bend a bit more.
noidea
No probs!
Many lives ago, when Fi was a little kid (before Gough) I taught another family member.
Allegory, on reviewing your recent contributions to this site, I have deleted or edited your last seven comments on grounds of abusiveness, immaturity and general poor quality, at which point I gave up. Lift your game please.
Frank
It’s not a matter of hiding the truth. They have said where the money will go and it doesn’t say that any will go to industry.
And it’s a process of negotiation anyway. Labor will probably insist on some industry compensation and the Greens will give ground. I think X will vote for it and Fielding will obviously vote against it.
They might get Troeth to cross the floor and pass it.
Don’t forget the ETS wasn’t due to start until mid-2011 and this starts mid-2010. It just fills in the gap until an ETS starts.
A silly ? from a new person to this discussion ,but i am curious to know how do you think the average household thinks when Rudd or Abott or st.bob go on about $ per ton of ghe. Most i think will not care other than how much will this cost my take home pay.
Until someone really gets the message across i fear it will all fail which is what TA is hoping for.
Diog
The Greens are being less than honest in the media release.
As I said, I watched the press conference. Milne was quite emphatic – it was a major point for her – that there would be no compensation for polluters. Yet there’s no mention of that in the media release.
It is a very strange and (to my mind) worrying omission, and (as I’ve already said) the only concern I had about their policy.
Diog
The Govt will make noises and then ignore the Greens dumb political stunt. Bob Brown said in Feb 2007 that he wanted to close down the Oz coal industry, nothing has changed.
The Greens are trying to buy themselves back into the CC debate after showing shocking political skills – they have just made things worse.
The article in The Coolum Advertiser to which Noidea refers at #851 can be seen on page six here. Apparently, Alex Somlyay has “been receiving treatment for a cancerous growth”, but “recent radiation therapy is making a difference, with the long term prognosis and hopes of a full recovery improving each day”.
noidea
What do you call a deer with no eyes? (sorry, I digress…)
When I do campaign material, I avoid ‘speak’ like that, because no one gets it and it’s therefore meaningless. I don’t even use it in policy jargon.
You’re right, talking about the costs that will be incurred on households and linking these costs to the benefits (people like to know what they’re paying for, and don’t mind paying for real results) is a better way to go.
Strange as it may sound, I don’t think politicians do politics well at all, sometimes… and I’m getting increasingly frustrated at what lousy campaigners the ALP are.
I recently discovered a major announcement for our local area, buried in a media release which contained half a dozen similar announcements. Needless to say, no one in the local media had picked it up, and I’m sure that it was the same for the other half dozen as well.
Why would Labor negotiate with the Greens when they refused to negotiate with the govt over the ETS?
IT first was 40% take it or leave it then to try and save face it was 25% now!
A range up to 25% wasn’t good enough for them.
Labor can go to a DD if they want and pass their ETS without the irrelevent Greens.
They made their bed let them lie in it.
[Diog
The Govt will make noises and then ignore the Greens dumb political stunt. Bob Brown said in Feb 2007 that he wanted to close down the Oz coal industry, nothing has changed.
The Greens are trying to buy themselves back into the CC debate after showing shocking political skills – they have just made things worse.]
And interesting to note the announcemnt recieved no coverage on Ch 7 News Perth, while Kev’s visit to Perth included Kev defending Perth from it’s “Dullsville” tag.
Vera
too important an issue for that attitude, much as I understand your frustration with the Greens.
We have to get action, any way we can.
[Why would Labor negotiate with the Greens when they refused to negotiate with the govt over the ETS?
IT first was 40% take it or leave it then to try and save face it was 25% now!
A range up to 25% wasn’t good enough for them.
Labor can go to a DD if they want and pass their ETS without the irrelevent Greens.
They made their bed let them lie in it.]
And cue The Easybeats 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_8P7ceqsGs
z
[As I said, I watched the press conference. Milne was quite emphatic – it was a major point for her – that there would be no compensation for polluters.]
I really can’t see that they are covering up this fact if they highlighted it at the press conference.
ru
They have adopted the policy of Rudd’s Climate Change Adviser.
…and look at it this way, if we get some form of CPRS/ETS passed in February
i. we get immediate action, rather than having to wait for an election later this year;
ii. young Tony becomes even more irrelevant, as his main platform is opposition to the CPRS;
iii. the Greens may have learnt something and be more willing to compromise in future.
But, as I say, the devil’s in the detail.
Diog
so why isn’t it in the media release?
I don’t think an ETS will be an election issue.
It was a big issue last election, but now almost everyone is over it. I certainly am.
z
I’m not good at political spin. But if they were trying to cover it up, they would have fudged it the press conference.
Frank
I resent that comment. Adelaide has to be Dullsville. I wasn’t aware Perth was even in the running.
Zoomster
I have always put the greens second after labor but seeing how they have behaved since rudd took office, obstructing left right and centre I have come to loath the buggers
I intend to put them last on my ballott paper in future.
I’d rather the govt did deals with the opposition than give B B and that awful milne woman the time of day!
And as Mrs Slocham wouls say “I am unanamous in that!”
[Do ya think Joe and Virginia will mention the Morgan Poll on tomorrow’s ABC2 Breakfast Program?]
ha ha, Evan. Let’s all send them a message – text, twitter, email, whatever and ask them for the poll result. The poor frenzied little souls won’t know which way to turn but they’ve mentioned before that newspoll is the one!! so we won’t hold our breaths.
BTW – got an email from Bob Brown tonight asking me to tell you all (well, all my friends) to check their website to read the u-beaut new CC suggestions. Have no idea how he got my email address.
[so why isn’t it in the media release?]
Zoomster, I agree. In the press release on the Green Party’s site it says “The proposal (details available on request)”. Why haven’t they included the details on their site? It begs the question whether they will give a consistent answer to the requests for details.
zoomster, For you
No eye deer.
I actually thought this was pretty clever when i first heard it .
but it was 1970 and i was 5
love the classics
Has anyone done the calculations on what the Greens’ proposed $20 carbon tax will equate to in final consumer electricity cost per kWh? My guess is that the prospective increase would be small compared with the forecast future electricity cost increases due to network maintenance and upgrades.
[I’m not good at political spin.]
Hey Diogenes, don’t underestimate yourself. You are doing pretty good job tonight 🙂
I can do the full set of riddles, if you like!!
go on
what coffee was served on the titanic?
Zoomster – I like your points at 883 and maybe Penny W will look at it that way too.
Makes me mad to think Bob Brown and Christine Milne played silly b….gers and wasted so much time during the Senate debate but it could be a start.
Only problem will be that business will want to get something ‘market based’ instead. But if this gets up think what lovely revenge it will be on that donkey Mitch whoever from the Mining Industry whose intransigence gave us Abbott.
vera #878
Vera, the lure of extra numbers a DD might bring was, I assume, the Greens prime motivation for Milne’s initial ill-mannered intransigence.
Only when it seemed that the Libs would pass the negotiated bill did Greens suddenly realise they’d sidelined themselves for no DD return; might, indeed, end up with a CPRS in which they – the Part of Climate Change Policy – had played no part.
Rudd has said he’d presenting to the Reps the bill negotiated with MacFarlane; so presumably what’s up for negotiation are amendments to that bill in the Senate. After the work Penny Wong & Ian Mac put into that bill, I can’t see Rudd’s rubber-stamping any Greens’ demands that significantly alter it.
and risked the boost to their numbers a DD would bring.
Zoom
the Arthur ones would get you banned
😉
PS Forget last line.
Just posted this at the ABC News Breakfast feedback spot
[I assume you will be making more than passing mention of the sharp increase in the Labor TPP vote recorded by Morgan. You take great delight in speaking endlessly about Newspoll when it records a slip in Labor support so I thought a bit of balance might be in order.]
[Just posted this at the ABC News Breakfast feedback spot]
Good luck with that, Steve – J.A. monitors the site in between making the tea.