Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.

This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:

newspoll0810

Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).

Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.

Also:

• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.

• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.

• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.

• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. Ron@5:

    [now Don , diff subject

    “I have never seen such bad board software, and I’ve been on a lot of boards…There should be a HELP page link close to the comment box.

    i’m it Don , ‘resident help’ Unlike othr sub class auto boards you been on , here you get reel indiv personal help here about computors]

    Ron, I must say you are more help than some help desks I have contacted in my time.

    Thanks for keeping me sane!

    Well, mostly sane, anyhow.

    😆

  2. HTT@12:

    [But these Labor hackery posts everytime a bad newspoll comes out is making me psychically sick.]

    Too late, happened long ago.

    Unless you mean physically sick!

    Just means you are not spending enough time in your tinnie and getting your sea legs. Off you go, protect us from the ravening hordes.

    😆

  3. [In the stinking hot west, the Liberal government have sulkily agreed to pay half the cost of propping up the wheatbelt rail network they privatised a decade ago, after the operator went bust. They want the federal govt to come up with the other half, which I imagine comes straight out of that ‘nation building fund’ or whatever the spin phrase for it was.]

    What do you expect when Bwendon has Colin by the short and curlies 🙂

    TRivia: “Bear” Gryls from that SBS show where he tries to survie in weird and wonderful ocations is a cousin to Brendon.

    Whackalunacy seems to be a family trait 🙂

  5. Ron@33:

    “and Abbott KNOCKING on the Lodge’s frontdoor.”

    well Abbott , knock knock

    – who is there

    – Abbott

    – Abbott who?

    – Abbit off more than I can chew!

  6. [#31,

    Get off it. Labor is without a doubt one of the most inept and self-serving major political parties in the western world.

    Rudd pretty much encapsulates everything that is wrong with that sacred party of yours. Vacuous, intellectually unimpressive, void of any sort of philisophical direction and driven with spin.]

    In your eagerness to attack Labor – you just replied to a rabid Greens supporter 🙂

  7. Frank@54:

    [#

    survie -survive 🙂

    And Gryls should be Grylls 🙂
    #
    55]

    Frank, you’ll love the preview box when it gets here!

    William, time to give that techie an early morning wake up call ahead of the regular 9 am one when the techie gets to the desk!

  11. This NewsPoll is probably a usual pagan festival rogue one but nevertheless:-

    Primary support for the Greens has increased slightly to 12 per cent

  12. Ron @ # 46,

    I am surprised that you could follow all the twist of that discission we had last night. You are right that it started with the German report and it meandered all over the place from there.

    I have to admit that I did not help things by misunderstanding Diogenes argument.

    However, you seem to have a rather good grasp even though you were not involved.

    I don’t know what the burr was under Don’s saddle blanket for he seemed to be just looking for something to have a “go” over.

    Maybe he just had a case of SOL.

    🙂 🙂 🙂

  15. I dont really mind about the OO and the usual suspects getting excited about a 2 % reduction in the 2PP for Labor, it’s to be expected. As long as they have a headline “Abbott takes a hit” when it moves back in the other direction. I wont hold my breath.

    In fact if you relied on the MSM for your poll news, you’d be convinced that the opposition is miles ahead by now, given the coverage being almost exclusively of poll movements away from the government

  17. [For the first time since 2008, Mr Rudd’s rating as better Prime Minister has also fallen below 60 per cent to 57 per cent, a three-point fall from the last Newspoll in December.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/support-for-pm-kevin-rudd-softens-as-liberal-base-swings-to-tony-abbott/story-e6frfkvr-1225821039900

    Complete and utter bullshit.

    What’s more, it’s titled:

    [Support for PM Kevin Rudd softens as Liberal base swings to Tony Abbott ]

    The Liberal and National primary votes haven’t changed. More bullshit.

  18. This poll was also taken while the MSM including just about every radio station were talking about the farmer up a pole starving himself, while all the callers were condemning Rudd for the farmers having their land confiscated and for that block up a pole.

  19. The poll was also taken during the political off-season when practically the ONLY pollies getting their voice balloons in the media were from the Coalition. And they went at it very hard. Abbott has been getting grabs in every ABC news bulletin, for example, (radio and TV), day-in, day-out for weeks now. (Though he’s taking a break this week apparently).

  21. This made the front page of the Tiser. Frankly, I don’t want access to all of your health data. Some hackers and health workers will definitely look up people they know. There must be ways of making it safer.

    [PRIVACY fears over Federal Government plans to put personal medical details in a national health database have been ignored and personal information put at risk.

    An ex-employee of the National E-Health Transition Authority says he quit in disgust after his concerns about the system were ignored.

    A privacy expert says hackers will target the “honeypot” of information and the Australian Privacy Foundation warns the draft legislation contains “defects” and ignores important privacy concerns.

    The Government will assign unique healthcare “identifiers” to patients, allowing doctors and other health workers to access individuals’ health information.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26604444-5006301,00.html

  23. deconst – #70

    You can watch it live on the web from the SMH website and spend your $32 on something else. 😆

    Each IQ² debate will be webcast live on The Sydney Morning Herald website from 6:45pm on the day of the event.
    Once available an embedded video of each debate will be available on this site. Visit the past events page for the most recent series for links to the events.
    In addition each event will be broadcast at a later date on ABC Radio National and the ABC Fora program on ABC2 television.
    http://www.iq2oz.com/

  25. [IT’S THE NARROWING!!!]

    Well it *is* the lowest primary vote Labor has received under Rudd’s leadership.

    That in itself is significant.

  26. Well Gary Bruce was advocating on the NSW thread that democracy is best served when there is a narrow margin between the government and the opposition. So no doubt people who adhere to that view will welcome this so called narrowing, and be hoping that it continues to say 51-49 real soon.

    😆 😆 :devil:

  27. [Well Gary Bruce was advocating on the NSW thread that democracy is best served when there is a narrow margin between the government and the opposition. So no doubt people who adhere to that view will welcome this so called narrowing, and be hoping that it continues to say 51-49 real soon.]

    Consistency? Lack of hypocrisy and contradiction? Please! We’re talking about rusted Laborites!

    😀

  28. er..isn’t this just a case of ‘out of sight, out of mind’ ?

    Rudd has been having a private holiday, and letting Abbott have a free kick in the media talking about the ETS, Wild Rivers, Murray-Darling, interest rates etc. Rudd has not even broke cover to crow about the unemployment figures.

    No doubt the ALP are confident that when Parliament resumes, and Gillard can get stuck into Abbott across the floor, then the polls will normalize.

    My bet is that Rudd will seldom go head to head with Abbott, because he knows that Gillard can get under his skin. The ALP will consistently put women ministers up against him. Abbott will lose his temper and the mask will slip

  29. [That in itself is significant.]
    No it isn’t. Are you arguing one poll is significant? We all know trends are over a period of time. That 40% will be significant if it continues. I thought you’d know that bob.

  30. [Rudd has been having a private holiday, and letting Abbott have a free kick in the media talking about the ETS, Wild Rivers, Murray-Darling, interest rates etc. Rudd has not even broke cover to crow about the unemployment figures.]

    Not to mention it’s with the MOE

  31. [Are you arguing one poll is significant? We all know trends are over a period of time. That 40% will be significant if it continues. I thought you’d know that bob.]

    I’m arguing that no previous poll has given Rudd Labor 40% of the primary. I’m not saying 40% is correct, but i’m also saying at no time has Rudd received such a low primary.

    Interpret that as you will.

  32. Very young Pete , I have not been commenting here on what the polls or the election results should or shouldn’t be but on the accuracy and significance of this poll. I don’t see how that has anything to do with how I view election results and their closeness.

  34. [I don’t want access to all of your health data. Some hackers and health workers will definitely look up people they know]
    What’s stopping a health worker at my local G.P. reading through my entire health record (as in the bits of paper in a manila folder) right now?

  35. [I’m not saying 40% is correct, but i’m also saying at no time has Rudd received such a low primary.]
    Surely if it is possibly incorrect then its significance is very much weakened.

  36. Why is everyone so worried – or excited – when all movements are within MOE?

    I say show me a TREND that indicates Labor is in any danger of losing the next election.

    Until then; nothing to see here, folks.

  37. [I say show me a TREND that indicates Labor is in any danger of losing the next election. ]
    I don’t think any serious commentator thinks they will lose. The question is, will they win about the same amount of seats as last time, or will they win in a big landslide (over 100 seats).

  38. #84 – ShowsOn
    [ What’s stopping a health worker at my local G.P. reading through my entire health record (as in the bits of paper in a manila folder) right now? ]

    There is little stopping them from doing so, and many do. Generally speaking, they only do so because they are required to do so for a legitmate purpose of the practice, not out of purient interest. In addition, the code of confidentiality would embue the practice and hopefully any other staff who saw a staff member looking at someones record without legitimate purpose would be concerned, and appropriate steps taken to remedy the situation. Further, a rogue staff member is limited to accessing only the records held by that practice – i.e. those patients that attend that practice.

    I think the concern is about hackers getting into a central data base containing the records of all australians.Likewise rogue health workers.

  39. SO

    [What’s stopping a health worker at my local G.P. reading through my entire health record (as in the bits of paper in a manila folder) right now?]

    Nothing. But this way they can look up 20 million peoples, not just the 5000 or so patients at the clinic. Often photos are included in the files. Imagine someone looking up all the models to see what treatments they have had and getting photos of their before and afters.

    And it will make people more reluctant to go to a doctor for mental health problems.

  40. MOE is plus or minus three percentage points.

    Thus the poll could be 57-43 or it could be 51-49.

    Look up Poss’s site, he had a great backgrounder on random noise.

    [Nerdy Sunday – When Trends Go Bad
    January 17, 2010 – 10:21 am, by Possum Comitatus

    We often use the phrase “the trend is your friend” when analysing noisy data, primarily because it’s a pretty good rule of thumb for the type of polling, economic and demographic data we usually deal with round these parts. Yet sometimes, with certain types of data that exhibit autocorrelated random noise, the “trend”, particularly any local trend witnessed across a relatively short time period, can be extremely deceptive.]

    The only way to get the true trend is to bring back that MOE to + or – 1% or less.

  42. [Well, you see that as significant. How is it significant?]

    Because all of the Newspolls have had the opportunity to be a one-off for an outlier. And none have given Labor as low as 40% on the primary vote.

  43. [Why is everyone so worried – or excited – when all movements are within MOE?]

    Would you be worried if five polls went: 60/40, 58/42, 56/44, 54/46, 52/48, 50/50?

    Don’t worry anyone, all movements have been within MOE therefore nothing has changed!!! 😀

  44. Shows On – you’re absolutely right.

    I know admin workers in a variety of fields – including at a counselling service where I used to work – who used to spend their free time trawling records to see if there is anyone they know.

    In the case of my counselling service, given it dealt with highly sensitive and personal issues – childhood sexual abuse and domestic violence amongst them – this was something we were all told was absolutely off limits; pretty much a sackable offence if you got caught. Didn’t stop people from doing it, though. This type of vicarious curiosity is unfortunately part of human nature.

    On the other hand, allowing easy access to these records for HEALTH PROFESSIONALS could be lifesaving, particularly when dealing with a patient who is unconscious or in an unfit state to give particulars. Waiting around to get hold of a relative to give more information or for a raft of tests to come back is sometimes not an option if the problem the person has requires a rapid response.

    Risking a confidentiality breach is far preferable than putting someone in a wooden box, I would have thought. I understand privacy concerns, but there are times – like this – when the benefits outweigh the disadvantages.

  45. Is Abbott on holidays?
    He was on the radio this morning with his buddy Alan Jones, both crowing about the supposed huge swing back to the Liberals.

  48. Evan, I did hear this morning he was supposed to be taking a few days off.

    Nick Minchin was pushing out the propaganda for the Libs on an ABC radio news bulletin this morning.

  49. “Support for PM Kevin Rudd softens as Liberal base swings to Tony Abbott ”

    Ummm… what exactly was the base swinging away FROM?

    Yikes what a bullsh*t line.

  50. [Support for PM Kevin Rudd softens as Liberal base swings to Tony Abbott]

    Yes it is bullshit, considering the 2% 2PP swing comes from a 3% drop in the primary Labor vote, with the Lib/Nat vote steady.

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