Something for the weekend

Parliament resumes on Monday, bringing with it an end to the silly season. We have had no Morgan this week, but there should be a Newspoll on Tuesday. Monday’s Essential Research poll had Labor’s two-party lead steady on 56-44; rated the relative importance of various issues; found a high level of support for Tony Abbott’s green jobs policy; and showed most respondents agreeing with the opposition after the emissions trading scheme issue was explained to them in a particular way. Other than that:

• Antony Green and Possum offer common sense reflections on the state of the opinion polls at the moment. Possum in particular identifies the peculiarity of the 2007 federal result, which alone out of seven observations failed to deliver on a landslide which the polls had shown at long range. The question now facing us is whether the extraordinary factors of 2007 equally apply in 2010 – whatever they might have been.

• A day after Bob McMullan announced he would retire from his seat of Fraser at the next election, Annette Ellis announced she too would be vacating the other safe Labor ACT seat, Canberra. Ousted ACT party secretary Bill Redpath claims national secretary Karl Bitar’s refusal to allow an earlier preselection indicates they were pushed as much as jumped. Christian Kerr of The Australian reports Ellis in particular agreed to go after Left and Right failed to finesse a deal in which the former would take Fraser at the election, and the latter would take Canberra when it became available. Michael Cooney, former adviser to Mark Latham and Kim Beazley and current chief-of staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr, was reportedly all but certain to take Canberra, while Fraser was likely to go to the party’s assistant national secretary Nick Martin. However, a new candidate for Canberra has emerged in Gai Brodtmann, runner of communications firm Brodtmann & Uhlmann Communications and wife of ABC report Chris Uhlmann.

• Peter Lindsay has announced he will vacate his knife-edge marginal Townsville-based seat of Herbert, and readily admits the timing of the announcement was chosen for “strategic reasons”. The Townsville Bulletin reports candidates for Liberal preselection are “thin on the ground”, no doubt reflecting a lack of confidence in Coalition ranks. Townsville deputy mayor David Crisafulli and V8 Supercars event manager Kim Faithful were rated as obvious successors, but both have declined to enter the ring. The one candidate known to have confirmed interest is Colin Dwyer, an economist and unsuccessful candidate for Mundingburra at last year’s state election. The Bulletin also reviews the achievements of Lindsay’s final term: a fact-finding mission encompassing 13 different countries, resulting in a report that plagiarised Wikipedia and featured a Photoshopped image purporting to show Lindsay at a Beirut war cemetery. Labor’s preselection process has turned up 2007 candidate George Colbran, former mayor and long-established local identity Tony Mooney, and Townsville councillor Jenny Hill.

• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Paul Nunnari, wheelchair athlete and adviser to state Campbelltown MP Graham West will contest preselection for Macarthur, going up against presumed favourite Nick Bleasdale, the narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2007.

• Michelle Carnovale of the Oakleigh Monash Leader reports Monash councillor Joy Banerji is Labor’s unlikely prospect in Kevin Andrews’ seat of Menzies.

• Those of you who have about 30 seconds to spare are encouraged to fill out Crikey’s website reader survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,289 comments on “Something for the weekend”

Comments Page 23 of 26
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  1. [The Obama Recession continues for yet another week:]

    Are you calling it ‘Obama’s Recession’ because you’re lying or because you really don’t understand how economics works?

  2. I wonder what the “copy person?” had in mind to replace “payments” before changing their mind and suggesting leaving it in?

    “in payments (leave that as payments) ”

    These News Ltd types work damn hard trying to support the Coalition and present them as a viable and responsibly alternative government, only in exile for a short time!

    [QUEENSLAND mining giant Clive Palmer and his companies donated $840,000 to conservative politicians in the past year.
    While the political contribution may be small change for the billionaire, it has helped pump up the coffers for the conservatives in Queensland, Western Australia and the National and Liberal Party branches nationally.

    The 2008/2009 annual financial returns released by the Australian Electoral Commission today reveals the ALP received about $44million in payments (leave that as payments) and the Liberal Party clocked up about $37m.]
    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,,26661011-3102,00.html

  3. [Are you calling it ‘Obama’s Recession’ because you’re lying or because you really don’t understand how economics works?]

    A little from column ‘A’ and a little from column ‘B’.

  5. #1102

    Looks like La Rouche conspiracy theories are alive and well.

    How about working journalists are doing their work properly. However, the editorial team are selecting and presenting stories in an attempt to advantage the coalition.

  7. #scorpio –
    wRONg again.

    That dog is not alike Kristina. Different breed His dog is probably a Maltese or a Maltese cross.

    I have an expert eye for dogs. Others who don’t are bound to make fools of themselves.

  9. [I have an expert eye for dogs. Others who don’t are bound to make fools of themselves.]

    I was well aware that you are an expert on everything! That’s why I made sure I stated that it only “looks a lot like” your doggie!

    That was pretty wise of me so as to not make a fool of myself when asking the question!

    I think I’m getting the hang of this business now, but you can never be too sure or “assume” anything these days, can you? 😉

  10. PY

    Matey, I’ve worked with journos, teachers and pollies. On a personal level, I’d trust a pollie over the other two any time.

    Journos never ever have to be responsible for their mistakes. Have you ever, in your entire existence, heard of a journo sacked or demoted or disciplined for an error? A journo can state blithely on the eve of an election that X’s campaign was brilliant, struck a chord with the electorate and well thought out; in the morning, when X loses by a huge margin, the same journo will say it was due to sloppy thinking and demonstrated how out of touch they were.

    I’ve made several quite serious complaints about journos taking information I’ve given them and distorting it, in ways which affected my reputation locally, in the past – I don’t think I’ve even got an apology.

    I have a lot of respect for teachers, being one, and with 22 close relatives in the last three generations coming from the profession (and my son recently said he’s thinking about it). However, I have few illusions about them, either. And of course they lie. They lie every time they look a student in the face and say, “No, I haven’t written your reports yet.” Goes with the territory.

    And of course there are lazy teachers, teachers who won’t face up to responsibility, who won’t change the way they do things, who are only in the job because of the money and the holidays and find children (and their parents) a little threatening. And most of them have permanency, which means that they know they can’t be sacked, so what does it matter?

    (Apologies: I must make it clear that this is a minority. But it’s there).

    Pollies, on the other hand, undergo a level of scrutiny seen in few (no?) other profession. It’s even worse, now, where a simple google search will find every word one ever uttered in the public domain. If every single word you said in any sort of company for the last several years was freely available for anybody who wanted to to examine for contradictions, dodgy statements and lies, do you think you’d come out looking squeaky clean?

    They have no tenure beyond the next election, unlike journos and teachers, so their errors can sometimes cost them very dearly.

    So: who do you think’s more likely to be honest? The person who doesn’t ever take responsibility for their mistakes? The one who has nothing to lose by making mistakes? Or the one who can lose everything if it can be shown that they’re lying?

    And yes, you’re right when it comes to a. Parents are very one eyed. This tool can be used to empirically demonstrate to them that that’s what they’re being. (And I’ve used information in this way, to explain gently to a parent that, I’m sorry, Freddy IS dumb).

    Of course some will continue to sweep the facts under the carpet, but they have less excuse to.

    b. I haven’t said anything about competition increasing performance. I don’t believe it does. I encourage students to compete with themselves, not with others.

    I haven’t said anything about these tables being used for the purposes of ‘competition’.

  11. [Further, Maltese tend to be cranky and snappy. Kristina on the other hand is pretty, very obedient and popular.]

    Is that right that owners tend to be like their dogs or is it the other way around, that dogs ten to be like their owners?

    I know they often look alike! There are whole web-sites on that! 😉

  12. The Government hasn’t worked out how it will fund the huge increase in health expenses as the population ages, let alone how it will fund the infrastructure, although the idea of tax cuts for the elderly to keep them in the workforce might do something (although it might just keep younger people who would have paid a higher rate of tax out of the workforce)

    [Today’s Intergenerational Report warns the number of people aged 65 to 84 years will “more than double”.]

    [But the government has come under fire to explain how it would fund the infrastructure and funding costs of increasing the population from 22 million today to 36 million in 2050.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/swan-casts-doubt-on-big-australia-predictions-of-36m/story-e6frgczf-1225825450180

  13. [It is a plain assertion that humans are inherently cooperative, and that the natural order is for some kind of socialist government.

    This is wrong, humans are COOPERATIVE and COMPETITIVE.]

    Shows @wayback

    Hence:

    Forceful socialism

    😉

  14. I intend having a very long and expensive old age, and I look forward to all you Gen-X smartarses paying my bills, because I’ll have spent all my money by then on Viagra and hookers.

  15. Quantum @1101

    Both.

    Ignore TruthHurty. He just wants attention. He’s like the screaming kid who pulls on Mum’s skirt in the supermarket aisle.

    When he gets home, Dad will take him behind the woodshed. (I wish.)

    TruthHurty makes me miss Glen.

  16. scorpio – #1111
    Very interesting question that.
    First – are they alike. Certainly one can see similarities. It’s spooky. But I think it’s more in the “association” we give to the owner and the dog. However, some personal traits are obviously going to be similar e.g. a person who takes fastidous care of clothing, grooming of self is probably going to ensure the dog is kept meticulously clean, fitted out with the latest bandana etc.
    Second – Personality similarities. No I don’t agree with that. Actually I believe a dog is basically born with a personality type (nature v nuture), and training needs to be adjusted to take that into account. Once again similarities are in the “associations” we make, not reality.
    3rd – dog like human, or human like dog. Not applicable – for reasons above.

    However, for some reason a dog does feed off the “vibe” of the owner – almost as if by telepathetic transfer. So when a person is happy, often the dog will be, and so on.

    A dogs sense of smell is 10,000 times the capacity of a human. It can remember the unique smells of different things. Thus when a dog pricks up its ears because the owner is coming home but is 1 kilometre away, this is not result of some super natural power, but merely it’s powerful smell sensors kicking in.

  17. Diogenes,

    Well they have said they’ll achieve it through productivity increases as well. The Treasurer also announced a $43m package to help skilled workers attain supervisory and managerial skills in order to assist them to stay in the workforce longer, should they choose to do so.

    Rather than relying on the Australian’s version of events, perhaps reading the report, or even the executive summary, might provide some useful information. I provided the links earlier.

  19. The US economy is climbing out of the hole, bit by anxious bit…..

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aId.GwVFwtj4&pos=1

    [Treasuries fell for the first time in three days on speculation reports this week will show the U.S. economic recovery is gaining momentum. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose one basis point to 3.60 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. U.S. S&P 500 stock index futures rose 0.1 percent.

    The Institute for Supply Management factory index will show a sixth-straight month of U.S. growth, a Bloomberg News survey showed before the data release today. Payrolls probably rose by 13,000 workers last month, according to a separate survey before the Labor Department’s Feb. 5 report.]

    In the meantime, the market is worried about excessive growth in China:

    [China, the world’s third-biggest economy, sustained its manufacturing expansion in January as export orders jumped and inflation pressures grew, two surveys showed today.

    A purchasing managers’ index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to a record. A second survey, by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, recorded the second- fastest expansion since 2008.

    Stocks tumbled as the reports spurred concern that the government will have to escalate efforts to rein in the credit growth that has fueled the nation’s infrastructure spending surge. Policy makers may raise interest rates by the end of June, after already increasing banks’ reserve requirements and targeting reduced credit growth…]

    So the markets are buying US assets again in anticipation of a stronger economy and better returns. The upshot? The US is looking ok for a prolonged period of growth with little or no inflationary pressure.

    TTH may not like it – he prefers economic distress to prosperity – and he may go looking for counter-signals. But his wishes will not change the trajectory of events, which will consist of a gradual but lasting improvement in the US economy.

  21. [ TruthHurty makes me miss Glen. ]

    No real problem. If you knew him and some others here in real life, you would just ignore them and/or avoid them.

    Just do the same here. It no doubt happens to them all the time.

  24. Essential’s Out:

    [mfarnsworth

    Essential Research poll has ALP 56% 2PP, Coalition 44%. 4 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]

  25. A tax of $20 on CO2 per ton, should reduce emissions to a degree, albeit a slight one. To argue that emissions will not be reduced at all is no different to arguing that all goods free from sales tax would increase the full 10% with a GST. In general, one would know very little about a carbon tax, a GST, or even income tax – and nothing about capital gains tax and company tax to make such a claim. 😆

    “I will leave it to the gentle readers of this blog to decide for themselves” Good call Diogs, don’t get into the gutter with a rat. 🙂

  26. Diogenes,

    As I said earlier, the government appears to believe that lifting productivity growth from 1.6%p.a. to 2%p.a. (along with other measures such as reform of the aged pension, family benefits and means testing the private health insurance rebate) will cover the gap.

    Whether that’s achievable is a different thing from not knowing how.

  27. Psephos #1114

    I intend having a very long and expensive old age, and I look forward to all you Gen-X smartarses paying my bills, because I’ll have spent all my money by then on Viagra and hookers.

    What, Psephos! NO Pokies? My understanding, from Opposition bile spewed over the Stimulus Package handouts to OAPs that every cent of it went into the Pokies’ maws! That’s how OAPs spend their ill-gotten taxpayer handouts! I agree with Billy Connolly – Grow old disgracefully!

    Unless, of course, you’re a whinging Liberal fem in a La Perla bra protesting (outside Flinders St R’way Station) about how pitiful the pension is & how pensioners live on dog food & baked beans. If so, the bra was a Big Mistake, coz GenXers are Brand-obsessives who recognise a La Perla at 500 paces in an unlit underground coal mine & exactly how much it costs … and tell parents, auntile & uncles etc!

    I do hope the hookers are in fascinating OS spots you haven’t visited yet!

  28. kakuru #1123

    Oh no! Wouldn’t it be just awful if Obama wins a 2nd term . TTH will be inconsolable…

    What an incentive to contribute to Barak’s re-election fund!

  31. Rewi

    There are a few problems with that solution that an economic ignoramus like me can see.

    1. The proportion of people paying taxes to pay for that healthcare is dropping
    2. The elderly people are living longer and longer
    3. Health costs for a unit of care are increasing much more rapidly than the 2% hopeful productivity growth rate.

    So total health costs are going to go up much faster than productivity and there are going to be less and less people (proportionately) to pay for them.

    All three of those factors combine to mean that Psephos is going to be bleeding me dry for years to come. He will be living high on the hog and I’ll have the taxman living on my doorstep. 😉

  32. jaundiced view #1024

    Public schools have a drawing area within which kids must reside in order to attend.

    Not on Queensland, they don’t, and never have! In fact, the Q “Schools of Excellence” concept (around c 25 years) wouldn’t have worked if there were specified “drawing areas”.

  33. [So total health costs are going to go up much faster than productivity and there are going to be less and less people (proportionately) to pay for them.]

    So I guess the Libs and Greens will pass the means testing of the medicare rebate?

  34. zoomster – #1110

    Your point regarding permanancy is one that doesn’t convince me.

    Indeed it now strengthens my view. Someone with permanancy has little incentive to lie. If by admitting the truth (something bad) will have no effect – there is no incentive to lie.
    However, if one has precarious “employment”, and admitting the truth will likely have an effect (loss of seat), particularly during an election campaign, the incentive is great to lie.
    If you get over the election hurdle – you have a full 4 years to cover it up. You will have enormous resources at your disposal to assist in doing so. If anyone raises it, you attack them as bringing up old irrelevant material, threaten with defamation, accuse them of bias, attack their mental status, tell them to move on etc.
    Constant google searches is for written material, press releases etc. So as a savvy MP you will be aware the best place to tell a lie is at a community meeting, one on one meeting etc. You will only fall into a ditch if someone has an audio recording of the meeting. 😆

  35. Diogenes,

    [All three of those factors combine to mean that Psephos is going to be bleeding me dry for years to come.]

    You and I both 🙂

    Your first two points, at least, are explicitly set out in the report. Even so, Federal Treasury apparently models that 2% growth plus other fiscal sustainability measures can get us there.

    Also being less than competent to comment on economic modeling, I’m prepared to give the folks at Treasury a bit of credit until someone can seriously debunk the report.

  36. [I intend having a very long and expensive old age, and I look forward to all you Gen-X smartarses paying my bills, because I’ll have spent all my money by then on Viagra and hookers.]

    Psephos,
    You’ve written many “penetrating” comments on this site previously, but this one goes straight into my PollBludger Hall of Fame!

  39. I agree with Dio that health costs will inevitably go up faster than productivity. In fact, assuming that productivity goes up at all is an assumption that depends on a lot of things that may not happen. Look at the last decade for example. If we really want to increase productiivty and drop health costs, we need to expand research efforts, but that requires a long term commitment, not just for an election cycle.

    Sooner or later some politiican will have to admit the truth – that people will have to work for longer. Retirement at 65, let alone 55, is not sustainable when most adults make it past 80. The sooner this pyrmaid scheme is ended the better.

    The really silly thing is assuming that expanding the population to 35 million solves the problem. That only expands the problem, plus you throw in huge infrastructure costs as well. Oh well, I suppose myself and other engineers won’t be unemployed.

    Todays report was Tony Abbott’s greatest gift so far – at last a bit of Rudd government economics that is full of holes and easily shot down.

  40. [Sooner or later some politiican will have to admit the truth – that people will have to work for longer. Retirement at 65, let alone 55, is not sustainable when most adults make it past 80. The sooner this pyrmaid scheme is ended the better.]

    How many business owners will employ someone over 50, heck over 40 even?

  41. ru

    [So I guess the Libs and Greens will pass the means testing of the medicare rebate?]

    I think the Greens voted for it the first time but FF and X voted against it.

    I’m interested in that bill as it would be a better DD trigger than the ETS. Dunno when they plan to reintroduce it.

  42. [Even so, Federal Treasury apparently models that 2% growth plus other fiscal sustainability measures can get us there.]
    Ross Gittins has doubts.
    [Remember, the 2 per cent annual improvement experienced during the ’90s was exceptional. It’s generally agreed by economists to have been caused by the sweeping micro-economic reforms of the late 1980s and early 1990s: deregulation of the financial system, floating the dollar, phasing out tariff protection, tax reform, the move to enterprise bargaining and reform of government-owned utilities.

    Even if Rudd had the courage – which he clearly doesn’t – he couldn’t put together a reform program of anything like the size and scope of the Hawke-Keating agenda. That was a once-only clean-out of the regulatory stables that yielded a once-only lift in the level of productivity.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/rudds-productivity-not-enough-to-raise-nations-20100131-n6jd.html

  43. [I think the Greens voted for it the first time but FF and X voted against it.]

    Diog.

    My braincell remembers the Greens opposing it. Maybe wrong though. I think they objected to the tresholds?

  44. [My braincell remembers the Greens opposing it. Maybe wrong though. I think they objected to the tresholds?]

    The greens did vote against it. Even though in principle they don’t like the rebate, they didn’t approve of the other provision in the bill which would have increased the medicare levy on people without private health insurance. They view this as “punishment” for people who “support” the public health system.

    It seems like ideological garbage to me. I am a greens supporter but they do some odd things at times. 😐

  45. ruawake

    [How many business owners will employ someone over 50, heck over 40 even?]

    It depends on people’s skills. I am over 40 now and have no trouble getting work. For many professionals and tradesmen their prime earning years are 45 to 55. But if you are unskilled and lack youth and vigour it is a problem. The solution is obvious – further training, plus laws preventing discrimination based on age.

  46. ruawake is correct. On the Fairer Private Health Insurance Incentives Bill 2009, all parties other than the ALP voted against it in the Senate.

  47. So Essential is unchanged. Been 56/44 last couple of rounds. Newspoll was 54/46 last time. Any predictions for tonight??

    I’ll throw my hat in for no change at 54/46 as the Govt wont start simmering Abbott and Co properly till tomorrow.

  49. [ruawake is correct. On the Fairer Private Health Insurance Incentives Bill 2009, all parties other than the ALP voted against it in the Senate.]

    At an estimated cost of $100 billion to 2050. 🙁

  50. The Greens media release, 9/9/2009, which explains in detail why the Greens voted the way they did on the private health insurance changes.
    [The Greens will be supporting the private health insurance rebate means testing approach, but we do not support the increase in the surcharge. Unfortunately, the government have put these bills together in a cognate debate, so we are unable to vote separately on the rebate and the surcharge. I am putting on record here that we believe that the bills should have been separated so that we could vote separately on these two issues. The government are trying to have a bet each way. They are trying to means test the rebate to bring a bit more equity into it, but at the same time they are saying to industry, ‘Don’t worry. We’re going to encourage more people in by increasing the surcharge.’ We do not believe that that is an appropriate approach. We believe the government need to be taking a much more fundamental approach to our healthcare system. They are tinkering around the edges with some of these things and not making the fundamental changes that we need. They are not addressing the overall negative impact that the private health insurance rebate has on our healthcare system and the fact that that money would be better injected directly into our health system rather than being filtered through private health insurance companies and distorting the way it can influence good health outcomes.]
    http://greensmps.org.au/content/speech/private-health-insurance-changes

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